Orsted

Analsyst updates, 06.12.

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• BERNSTEIN raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 220 to EUR 227. Outperform. $SIE (-0,05%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 38.70 to EUR 44. Neutral. $ENR (-0,65%)
• JEFFERIES upgrades BMW from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 80 to EUR 85. $BMW (-0,05%)
• ODDO BHF raises the price target for AURUBIS from EUR 70 to EUR 76. Neutral. $NDA (-0,07%)
• UBS raises target price for AUTO1 from EUR 9.80 to EUR 20.50. Buy. $AG1 (-0,06%)
• UBS raises the target price for NORDEA from SEK 144 to SEK 145. Buy. $NDA FI (-0,02%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 34 to EUR 36. Buy. $FNTN (-0,04%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for DS SMITH from GBP 4 to GBP 5.80. Hold. $SMDS (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 3.80 to EUR 4.10. Neutral. $TKA (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SALZGITTER from EUR 11.50 to EUR 14.10. Underweight. $SZG (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from EUR 270 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SU (-0,06%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 88 to EUR 92. Overweight. $KBX (-0,07%)
• MORGAN STANLEY upgrades HANNOVER RÜCK to Overweight. Target price EUR 292. $HNR1 (-0,04%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18.40 to EUR 19.50. Overweight. $CBK (-0,06%)

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• GOLDMAN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 770 to EUR 720. Buy. $MC (-0,05%)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades MUNICH RE to Equal-Weight. Target price 523 EUR. $MUV2 (+0%)
• JEFFERIES downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 73 to EUR 60. $MBG (-0,06%)
• ODDO BHF lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 43 to EUR 38. Neutral. $DHER (-0,12%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 31 to EUR 24.50. Buy. $COP (-0,09%)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 143 to DKK 123. Neutral. $VWS (-0,02%)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for KION from EUR 44 to EUR 43. Overweight. $KGX (-0,09%)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades ORSTED to Equal-Weight. Target price DKK 480. $ORSTED (+0%)

Analyst updates, 02.12.24:

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- EXANE BNP upgrades NOVO NORDISK to Outperform. Target price DKK 930. $NOVO B

- HSBC upgrades LVMH to Buy. Target price EUR 727. $MC (-0,05%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises target price for MTU from EUR 278 to EUR 297. Hold. $MTX (+0%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for VISA from USD 324 to USD 347. Buy $V (-0,09%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades BASF from Hold to Buy and raises price target from EUR 50 to EUR 55. $BAS (-0,05%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades BURBERRY from Hold to Buy and raises target price from GBP 8.60 to GBP 11.80. $BRBY (+0%)

- GOLDMAN raises the target price for AROUNDTOWN from EUR 2.90 to EUR 3.70. Buy. $AT1 (-0,08%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades TOAST from Buy to Neutral and raises target price from USD 34 to USD 45. $TOST (+0,04%)

- HSBC upgrades HERMES to Buy. Target price 2500 EUR. $RMS (-0,04%)

- MORGAN STANLEY upgrades ZEBRA TECH to Equal-Weight. Target price 400 USD. $ZBRA (+0,14%)

- JPMORGAN upgrades AIR LIQUIDE from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 161 to EUR 195. $AI (+0,2%)

- JPMORGAN raises target price for PUMA SE from EUR 44 to EUR 47. Neutral. $PUM (+0%)

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- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for MASTERCARD from USD 563 to USD 557. Buy. $MA (+0,23%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 26 to EUR 24. Buy. $AIXA (-0,1%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for WACKER NEUSON from EUR 14.50 to EUR 14. Hold. $WAC (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH downgrades K+S from Hold to Sell and lowers target price from EUR 9.75 to EUR 9.50. $SDF (-0,05%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for BP from GBP 4.70 to GBP 4.40. Hold. $BP. (+0%)

- RBC downgrades IBERDROLA from Outperform to Sector-Perform. Target price EUR 14 $IBE (-1,12%)

- RBC lowers the price target for RWE from EUR 52.50 to EUR 45.50. Outperform. $RWE (+0%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the target price for ORSTED from DKK 460 to DKK 430. Neutral. $ORSTED (+0%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ADIDAS from EUR 275 to EUR 266. Overweight. $ADS (-0,04%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 685 to EUR 650. Neutral. $MC (-0,05%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HUGO BOSS from EUR 43 to EUR 42. Neutral. $BOSS (-0,08%)

27.11.2024

Aroundtown becomes slightly more optimistic + JPMorgan raises Henkel to 'Overweight' - target up to 100 euros + Ørsted has allegedly initiated the sale of shares

The commercial real estate specialist Aroundtown $AT1 (-0,08%) stabilized further in the third quarter thanks to increased rental income and slightly higher interest rates. The loss was significantly reduced in the first nine months compared to the previous year. In addition, the MDax < listed group is somewhat more confident about its operating result than recently. The bottom line for the three months to the end of September was even a profit, meaning that the loss after tax for the first nine months was lower than that of the first half of the year. Unlike recently, no further value adjustments on real estate were necessary, the company announced in Luxembourg on Wednesday. The bottom line for the nine months to the end of September was a loss of 154 million euros compared to almost 1.4 billion euros a year earlier. The operating profit fell by just under eight percent to 236 million euros. Aroundtown also became somewhat more optimistic about the result for the current year and is now aiming for the upper end of the operating result range of 290 to 320 million euros, which was raised in the summer. Compared to 2023, the operating result should therefore only fall slightly.

The US bank JPMorgan has Henkel $HEN (-0,07%) from "Neutral" to "Overweight" and raised its price target from 82 to 100 euros. Analyst Celine Pannuti emphasizes the attractive total shareholder return (TSR) in her 2025 outlook for the consumer goods sector published on Wednesday. She is particularly optimistic about tobacco stocks, the shares of soft drinks manufacturers and breweries as well as consumer durables companies (HPC). Pannuti takes a rather skeptical view of alcoholic beverage and food manufacturers and is also rather selective when it comes to food additives. Henkel is still significantly cheaper than its competitors, although the annual targets for 2024 have been increased twice.

The Danish energy company Ørsted $ORSTED (+0%) has initiated the sale of a 50 percent stake in the Hornsea 3 wind farm project in the UK North Sea, Bloomberg News reports. It is unclear what price the company is seeking for the stake. The project, which will supply more than three million British homes with electricity, had previously been valued at 8.5 billion pounds, equivalent to just over SEK 117 billion. The sale is also intended to test the market's appetite for Ørsted's project, which is still under development. Ørsted has been pushing to sell off parts of the company as part of a restructuring plan launched by CEO Mads Nipper earlier this year. Last month it was announced that Brookfield had acquired a stake in four Ørsted-operated wind farms in UK waters for £1.75 billion.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

T-Mobile US USD 0.88

Newmont Corporation USD 0.25

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

06:50 Aroundtown quarterly figures

08:00 Easyjet annual results

11:00 Adler Group AGM

Untimed: Norsk Hydro Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 08:45 FR: Consumer Confidence November PROGNOSIS: n/a previously: 94
• 10:30 DE: GfK Consumer Climate Indicator November FORECAST: -19.0 points previously: -18.3 points
• 14:30 US: GDP (2nd release) 3Q annualized PROGNOSE: +2.8% yoy 1st release: +2.8% yoy 2nd quarter: +3.0% yoy GDP deflator PROGNOSE: +1.8% yoy 1st release: +1.8% yoy 2nd quarter: +2.5% yoy
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 215,000 previous: 213,000
• 14:30 US: New orders for durable goods October FORECAST: +0.5% yoy previous: -0.7% yoy
• 15:45 US: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index November PROGNOSE: 44.7 previous: 41.6
• 16:00 US: Personal Spending and Income October Spending / Income FORECAST: +0.4% yoy/+0.3% yoy previous: +0.5% yoy/+0.3% yoy

Analyst updates, 25.11.

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- MORGAN STANLEY upgrades ROBINHOOD to Overweight. Target price USD 55. $HOOD (-0,26%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 37 to EUR 39.50. Overweight. $DTE (-0,03%)

- BERENBERG raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 35 to EUR 70. Buy. $ENR (-0,65%)

- UBS raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 570 to EUR 630. Neutral. $RHM (+0,46%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for 1&1 from EUR 17 to EUR 20. Equal-Weight. $1U1 (-0,08%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades VESTAS from Hold to Buy. $VWS (-0,02%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 33 to EUR 38. Buy. $VNA (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for TAG IMMOBILIEN from EUR 16 to EUR 18. Buy. $TEG (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades AROUNDTOWN from Sell to Hold. Target price EUR 2.80. $AT1 (-0,08%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for LEG IMMOBILIEN from EUR 90 to EUR 105. Buy. $LEG (-0,05%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades DEUTSCHE WOHNEN from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 19 to EUR 28. $DWNI (+0%)

- STIFEL raises the price target for NOVARTIS from CHF 106 to CHF 109. Hold. $NUVN

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades JD SPORTS FASHION from Sell to Hold. $JD. (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ALSTOM from EUR 22 to EUR 25. Buy. $ALO (-0,05%)

- MORGAN STANLEY raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 213 to EUR 232. Equal-Weight. $DB1 (+0%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the target price for ECKERT & ZIEGLER from 57.30 EUR to 60.30 EUR. Buy. $EUZ (-0,09%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 23 to EUR 26. Equal-Weight. $UTDI (+0%)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from 142.10 EUR to 145.50 EUR. Buy. $HEI (+0%)

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- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for KION from EUR 55 to EUR 50. Buy. $KGX (-0,09%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for CTS EVENTIM from EUR 114 to EUR 106. Buy. $EVD (+0,94%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades ORSTED from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from DKK 520 to DKK 445. $ORSTED (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for H&M from SEK 200 to SEK 190. Buy. $HM B (+0%)

- MORGAN STANLEY lowers the price target for MERCK KGAA from EUR 200 to EUR 190. Overweight. $MRK (+1,07%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 4.40 to EUR 4. Underweight. $TKA (+0%)

- MORGAN STANLEY downgrades ING to Equal-Weight. Target price EUR 17.50. $ING (+0%)

- JPMORGAN lowers target price for RWE from EUR 48 to EUR 47.50. Overweight. $RWE (+0%)

Orsted Q3 2024 $ORSTED (+0%)

Financial performance

• Revenue: Total revenue in the first nine months of 2024 amounted to DKK 49,957 million, compared to DKK 57,725 million in the same period in 2023, indicating a decline.
• EBITDA: EBITDA increased to DKK 23,606 million compared to DKK 19,403 million, an increase of 22%.

Balance sheet overview

• Total assets: As of September 30, 2024, total assets amounted to DKK 290,341 million.
• Equity: Equity stood at DKK 91,127 million, an increase from DKK 77,791 million at the end of 2023.
• Net interest-bearing debt: This increased to DKK 62,817 million, up from DKK 47,379 million at the end of 2023.

Income overview

• Operating profit (EBIT): EBIT amounted to DKK 12,516 million, a significant improvement compared to a loss of DKK 16,448 million in the first nine months of 2023.
• Net profit: Profit for the period was DKK 6,100 million compared to a loss of DKK 19,026 million in the previous year.

Cash flow overview

• Cash flow from operating activities: This amounted to DKK 8,050 million, compared to DKK 22,362 million in the first nine months of 2023.
• Free cash flow: A negative free cash flow of DKK 15,281 million was recorded, compared to a negative cash flow of DKK 3,427 million in 9M 2023.

Key figures and profitability ratios

• Return on capital employed (ROCE): Improved to 8.1% from -13.7%.
• FFO/Adjusted net debt: This fell to 12.6% from 20.9%.

Segment information

• Offshore: EBITDA in the Offshore segment amounted to DKK 19,831 million, an increase of 21% compared to 9M 2023.
• Onshore: EBITDA amounted to DKK 2,802 million, compared to DKK 2,445 million.
• Bioenergy & Other: EBITDA increased to DKK 213 million, a significant increase compared to DKK 89 million.

Competitive position

Ørsted remains a leader in renewable energy with significant investments in offshore and onshore wind projects, consolidating its strong market position.

Forecasts and management commentary

• Strategic ambitions: Target to reach 35-38 GW of installed renewable capacity offshore and 11-13 GW onshore by 2030.
• Financial outlook for 2024: EBITDA, excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees, is expected to be between DKK 24-26 billion.

Risks and opportunities

• Market risks: Exposure to market, credit and liquidity risks, with a focus on stabilizing key rating metrics.
• Opportunities: Continued investments in renewable energy projects and strategic divestments to optimize the portfolio.

Summary of the findings

Ørsted has shown a strong financial performance in the first nine months of 2024, with significant improvements in EBITDA and EBIT. The company continues to invest heavily in renewable energy projects, securing a competitive advantage in the industry. Nevertheless, there are challenges in managing cash flows and net debt. The strategic focus on expanding renewable capacity by 2030 is in line with global sustainability targets and offers both opportunities and risks in terms of implementation.

Positive aspects

• EBITDA growth: Ørsted's EBITDA increased by 22% to DKK 23,606 million in the first nine months of 2024, compared to DKK 19,403 million in the same period in 2023, indicating strong operational performance and effective cost management.
• Performance in the offshore segment: The Offshore segment reported EBITDA of DKK 19,831 million, an increase of 21% compared to the previous year. This growth resulted from higher revenues from CfD contracts, ROCs and green certificates.
• Reduction in Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions: A significant 47% reduction in Scope 1 emissions was achieved, mainly due to a 53% decrease in coal consumption in power plants.
• Strategic capacity expansion: Ørsted has set ambitious targets to expand renewable capacity to 35-38 GW offshore and 11-13 GW onshore by 2030, which is in line with global sustainability targets.
• Improved return on capital employed (ROCE): ROCE improved to 8.1% from -13.7%, indicating better capital utilization and improved profitability.

Negative aspects

• Decline in sales: Total revenue decreased to DKK 49,957 million compared to DKK 57,725 million in the same period in 2023, indicating challenges in maintaining revenue growth.
• Increase in net interest-bearing debt: Net interest bearing debt increased to DKK 62,817 million, from DKK 47,379 million at the end of 2023, which could affect financial flexibility.
• Negative free cash flow: The company recorded a negative free cash flow of DKK 15,281 million, compared to a negative cash flow of DKK 3,427 million in 9M 2023, indicating challenges in cash flow management.
• Lower availability in the offshore wind segment: Availability in the offshore segment amounted to 89%, a decrease of 4 percentage points year-on-year, due to planned maintenance work on Hornsea 1 and 2.
• Increase in Scope 3 emissions: Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 63% due to emissions from capital goods related to the commissioning of new turbines.

Hello everyone,

it's time for some feedback again!

Briefly about the long-term strategy. I currently save monthly $IWDA (-0,03%)
$EIMI (-0,54%) and $WSML (-0,03%) . I definitely want to increase the ETF share over the next few years. I definitely invested too little here at the beginning.

With very small sums I invest in stocks like $ASML (-0,08%)
$AAPL (+0,1%)
$MCD (-0,04%)
$MC (-0,05%)
$MSFT (+0,13%)
$AMZN (+0%) and co. There I have split the execution to 2x per month. If it drops significantly, I buy in tranches.

So that the dividend doesn't come up short, I still have stocks like $O (+0,13%)
$KO (+0,14%)
$DGE (+0%) and my overweight $BAT . I don't work with savings plans for dividend stocks. Here I only buy in tranches if the share falls significantly. Provided I am still convinced of the investment. I try to focus exclusively on established quality companies.

I only see these candidates here as a trade. I will definitely part with them if the prices are attractive $BNTX (+0,04%)
$FXPO (+0%)
$ORSTED (+0%)
$PYPL (+0,05%)
$YSN (+0%)
$SIX2 (+0%) .

Conclusion

-Increase ETF share

-Increase the investment amount of the individual positions

-Reduce overall portfolio positions

I look forward to any constructive criticism!

08.10.2024

Nordex Group receives orders for 500 MW from Canada + Oil and gas producer Equinor acquires stake in wind power company Orsted + Order intake in Germany calls for caution + China's economy remains weak

The Nordex Group
$NDX1 (-0,04%) received orders for 74 N163 turbines totaling 500 MW from Canada at the end of September. The orders also include the Premium Service for maintaining the turbines for between 15 and 30 years.

The Norwegian oil and gas producer Equinor $EQNR (+0%) has acquired a minority stake in the Danish wind power company Orsted $ORSTED (+0%) making it the second largest shareholder. Equinor bought almost 41.2 million shares, the company announced in Stavanger on Monday. This corresponds to a stake of 9.8 percent. This has a market value of 2.5 billion US dollars (just under 2.3 billion euros), based on the closing price on Friday. The largest shareholder is the Danish state. According to Orsted, the country held a good half of the shares at the end of the year. Following the announcement of the news, Orsted shares rose by a good four percent to 434 Danish kroner. Equinor emphasized that it supports Orsted's strategy and board of directors. In addition, the Norwegians did not intend to take a seat on the management board. Without specifying a time horizon, the Norwegians announced their intention to increase their stake to ten percent. There are currently no plans to increase the stake beyond this. The company described its commitment as "long-term".

As was to be feared following the recent weak sentiment indicators, the German incoming orders in August fell significantly. Even if the 5.8 percent drop compared to the previous month is partly due to a lower number of large orders, today's data confirms to Commerzbank economists that demand for industrial goods from Germany has weakened further. This suggests that the German economy will stagnate at best in the second half of the year. An upturn is not expected until next year, and even this is likely to be very modest.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

BBVA EUR 0.29

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

02:00 Samsung Electronics quarterly figures

12:00 Pepsico quarterly figures

17:00 Boeing deliveries 9/24

Untimed: General Motors Capital Markets Day | Procter & Gamble AGM

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:30 OMV Trading Update 3Q

Untimed: Deutz Capital Markets Day | BNP Paribas Extraordinary General Meeting

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Production in the manufacturing sector August seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +0.8% yoy previous: -2.4% yoy
• 14:30 US: Trade Balance August FORECAST: -70.80 bn USD previous: -78.79 bn USD
• 18:45 US: Atlanta Fed President Bostic, speech at Atlanta Consular Corps luncheon
• 19:00 DE: ECB Governing Council member Nagel, speech at the German Bundesbank's Capital City Reception

The US government gave the green light on Tuesday for the Sunrise Wind offshore wind project from Orsted ($ORSTED (+0%) ) and Eversource ($ES (+0,46%) ), which is expected to supply more than 320k households in New York with electricity.

Sunrise Wind will be the seventh offshore wind project authorized by President Biden's Department of the Interior offshore wind project that is part of his climate change agenda.

The project is expected to generate 924 megawatts and create hundreds of jobs during the construction and operation phase. The permit stipulates that fewer wind turbines than planned in order to minimize environmental impact.

Sunrise Wind will be about 16 nautical miles south of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts and 27 nautical miles east of Montauk, New York.

Orsted is now negotiating the final terms of the agreement and plans to acquire Eversource's interest in the project.

$ORSTED (+0%) is struggling, excerpt from the report:

The aim is to reduce fixed costs by one billion Danish kroner by 2026, which includes cutting 600 to 800 jobs worldwide, Orsted announced on Wednesday. The Board of Directors also announced that it would scale back its investment and capacity plans, pay no dividends for the years 2023 to 2025 and sell assets worth around 115 billion kroner (15.4 billion euros) by 2030.

www.finanzen.net/amp/sparprogramm-orsted-aktie-verliert-orsted-setzt-bei-stellen-dividenden-und-investitionen-den-rotstift-an-13238626

Team $UKW (+0%)

That was my stock market year 2023.

Since I can call this year the first in which I was able to invest a large sum almost every month, my New Year's resolution is now to invest at least €1,000 every month. Thanks to a change of employer, I can now make this a reality.

I have now also looked beyond the German / European horizon and diversified my portfolio further this year. Non-equity stocks have also made it into my share portfolio. I would like to pick up on this again next year. Asian stocks are still missing here. Let's see what finds its way into my portfolio in 2024.

In addition, at least another €200 a month from my 'voluntary work' will flow into my portfolio. I would like to use this primarily to increase my position in cryptocurrencies $BTC (-2,08%) and $ETH (-2,57%) further expand.

My first share in 24 will actually be $SBUX (+0,04%) be. I had once said here on getquin that I would not invest. However, I changed my mind after I had a hot drink with my girlfriend in a Starbucks in Munich this year and used the time to observe who was actually getting an overpriced coffee here. I won't be getting any coffee here either, but I hope that others here will consume the black brew all the more.

On my hit list is $ORSTED (+0%) right at the top. After looking after a large solar project in the region this year, my view of renewable energies has changed a little, even if I think wind power will still do better than solar energy in Europe. I'll probably keep an eye on developments here until around April, but I might get out sooner.

Of course, the aim is still to achieve a return in order to make good provisions for the future. At the age of 25, I'm a bit proud to have saved a small sum. For most people, of course, this is a drop in the ocean, but we mustn't forget... Getquin is also a bubble somewhere (and I'm sure there are one or two fake portfolios here too).

As I now also enjoy the benefits of a company car with private use, I will sell my private car next year and reinvest the capital 'gained' from it in the stock market. This will add up to a nice little sum.

If you like, you can also take a look at my portfolio and give me some feedback. :)

I wish everyone a happy new year!