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$SPOT (+0%)
$DDOG (-7,38%)
$BP. (+3,12%)
$SPGI (+0,53%)
$HAS (-0,44%)
$KO (+2,07%)
$JMIA (-3,49%)
$MAR (+0,63%)
$RACE (-0,39%)
$UPST (-3,75%)
$NET (-6,71%)
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$981
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$DSY (-0,91%)
$1SXP (-0,2%)
$HEIA (+0,89%)
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$DOU (+0,13%)
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Discussão sobre UPST
Postos
61Quarterly figures 09.02-13.02.26

Will the sell-off continue next week?
$MNDY (-4,45%)
$PGY
$APO (-0,95%)
$ON (-1,69%)
$AMKR (-5,16%)
$MEDP (-1,77%)
$UPWK (-3,72%)
$ACGL (+0,94%)
$ACM (-0,95%)
$KO (+2,07%)
$SPOT (+0%)
$CVS (-0,19%)
$DDOG (-7,38%)
$FI (+0,18%)
$SPGI (+0,53%)
$RACE (-0,39%)
$AZN (-0,98%)
$MAR (+0,63%)
$OSCR (-4,61%)
$HOOD (-4,18%)
$ALAB (-5,91%)
$F (+0,82%)
$LYFT (-2,29%)
$UPST (-3,75%)
$NET (-6,71%)
$GILD (-0,66%)
$EW (-1,77%)
$SHOP (-4,93%)
$VRT (-3,68%)
$HUM (-4,42%)
$KHC (+1,4%)
$MCD (+0,02%)
$9ZX1
$TMUS (+0,44%)
$APP (-4,57%)
$CSCO (-2,13%)
$ALB (-3,02%)
$HUBS (-2,82%)
$TYL (-1,2%)
$NBIS (-10,55%)
$BN (-1,13%)
$CROX (-1,35%)
$ZTS (+1,03%)
$BIRK (-5,79%)
$COIN (-4,73%)
$ANET (-4,87%)
$RIVN (-4,57%)
$TOST (-2,39%)
$AMAT (-4,64%)
$DKNG (-2,47%)
$WEN (+0,34%)
$CCO (-2,21%)
$ENB (+2,64%)

High Risk - High Reward division for 2026
Below a securities account - the active piggy bank as a mixture of growth and value/dividend.
I would like to open a "High Risk High Reward division" with another broker (or in a subgroup at Scalable). No crazy gambles, but possibly companies that are in their infancy, have strong price swings or initially trade mainly with a vision of the future. Possibly also with a bet on a turnaround. Not completely unfamiliar, but less unestablished than below.
I was thinking of: $DRO (+7,5%)
$HIMS (-4,04%)
$RKLB (-8,26%)
$QBTS (-7,37%)
$CRSP (-4,3%)
$PLUG (-6,77%)
$UPST (-3,75%)
$ONDS (-4,77%)
$SOL (+0,78%)
$SMCI (-10,16%)
What would be your suggestions?
Would it be better to invest in a separate portfolio group at Scalable or in a new portfolio (TR)? Do I see the separate return with the separate portfolio group at Scalable?
Upstart Holdings Q3’25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $277.1M (Est. $279.8M) 🟡; UP +71% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.52 (Est. $0.42) 🟢; vs. ($0.06) YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $71.2M (Est. $56.3M) 🟢
FY25 Outlook
🔹 Revenue: ~$1.035B (Est. $1.056B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: ~$228M (Est. $220M) 🟢
🔹 GAAP Net Income: ~$50M (Prior: ~$35M) 🟢
Q4’25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: ~$288M
🔹 Adj. Net Income: ~$52M
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: ~$63M
🔹 Contribution Margin: ~53%
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 26% (Est. 20.3%) 🟢; vs. 1% YoY
🔹 Contribution Profit: $147.4M (Est. $161.4M) 🔴; UP +44% YoY
🔹 Total Originations: $2.9B; UP +80% YoY
🔹 Loans Originated: 428,056; UP +128% YoY
🔹 Conversion Rate: 20.6% (vs. 16.3% YoY)
CEO Commentary – Dave Girouard
🔸 “Q3 marked rapid growth, profitability, and AI leadership — with originations up 80% and revenue up 71%.”
🔸 “Our AI platform continues to adapt to macro signals while delivering strong credit performance.”
Quartalszahlen 03.11.25-07.11.15
$BNTX (-2,89%)
$ON (-1,69%)
$HIMS (-4,04%)
$PLTR (-7,51%)
$O (+0,65%)
$8058 (+0,06%)
$7974 (+2,03%)
$BP. (+3,12%)
$BOSS (-0,29%)
$SWK (-0,35%)
$SPOT (+0%)
$N1CL34
$UBER (-1,65%)
$CPRI (+0,42%)
$SHOP (-4,93%)
$RACE (-0,39%)
$HOG (-3,17%)
$HTZ (-5,43%)
$PFIZER
$UPST (-3,75%)
$ANET (-4,87%)
$PINS (-2,24%)
$TEM (-9,52%)
$AMD (-5,46%)
$SMCI (-10,16%)
$RIVN (-4,57%)
$BYND (-3,95%)
$KTOS (-0,93%)
$CPNG (-3,98%)
$BMW (+2,37%)
$NOVO B (-1,65%)
$FRE (+1,7%)
$ORSTED (+2,82%)
$AG1 (+2,89%)
$EVT (+0,12%)
$CCO (-2,21%)
$DOCN (-10,63%)
$LMND (-2,77%)
$SONO (-2,16%)
$MCD (+0,02%)
$HOOD (-4,18%)
$QCOM (-2,78%)
$FTNT (-7,17%)
$FSLY (-10,62%)
$HUBS (-2,82%)
$ELF (-2,4%)
$ARM (-6,21%)
$SNAP (-4,37%)
$DASH (-1,76%)
$APP (-4,57%)
$AMC (-4,48%)
$ZIP (-9,26%)
$FIG (-6,57%)
$LCID (-9,65%)
$DUOL
$UN0 (-0,11%)
$CBK (-0,67%)
$DEZ (+1,45%)
$ZAL (+0,54%)
$HEN (+0,84%)
$MAERSK A (+0,03%)
$HEI (+0,77%)
$CON (-1,42%)
$AZN (-0,98%)
$ALB (-3,02%)
$MRNA (-8,11%)
$QBTS (-7,37%)
$WBD
$LI (-1,47%)
$RHM (+5,29%)
$DDOG (-7,38%)
$RL (-0,67%)
$OPEN (-9,66%)
$ABNB (-0,38%)
$PTON (-1,07%)
$MP (-3,31%)
$TTD (-6,39%)
$STNE (-0,69%)
$SQ (-2,82%)
$GRND (-6,69%)
$IREN (-11,51%)
$AFRM (-2,48%)
$CRISP
$RUN (-4,86%)
$7011 (+2,95%)
$DTG (+0,57%)
$HAG (+5,8%)
$DKNG (-2,47%)
$LAC (-1,98%)
$KKR (-1,77%)
$PETR3 (+2,67%)
$CEG
$WEED (-3,03%)
40k free cash. Where to put it?
I would be interested in your opinion: I still have 40k cash on hand.
I wanted to use the money for the Black Swan event but the dip doesn't come, the market runs away and FOMO kicks in. À la April lows at the tariff announcement of USA against the whole world.
My current PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION can be viewed in my profile, it is public.
Actually
I'm in a pretty solid position (my opinion) and would be happy to give you my opinion.
Would you stick to the plan or DCA into interesting stocks?
On my watchlist: $UNH (-1,66%) ; $TTD (-6,39%) ; $ADYEN (+0,08%) ; $TEAM (-1,42%) ; $UPST (-3,75%) & $MNDY (-4,45%)
What do you have on your watchlist and what would you advise me to do? Stick to the plan and wait for the big dip or go in in tranches?
Upstart Q2'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $257M (Est. $225.43M) 🟢; UP +102% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: -$0.17 (Est. $0.24) 🔴
FY Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: ~$1.055B (Est. $1.01B) 😐
Q3 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: ~$280M (Est. $268.7M) 🟢
Other Metrics:
🔹 Loans Originated: 372,599; UP +159% YoY
🔹 Total Originations: $2.8B; UP +154% YoY
🔹 Conversion Rate: 23.9%; UP from 15.2% YoY
🔹 Revenue from Fees: $241M; UP +84% YoY
🔹 Contribution Profit: $141M; UP +85% YoY
🔹 Contribution Margin: 58%
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $53.1M
🔹 GAAP Net Income: $5.6M
🔹 GAAP Operating Income: $4.5M
CEO Commentary:
🔸 “A year ago, you saw the first signs that Upstart was returning to growth mode — and today you can see it in full bloom.”
🔸 “We reached GAAP profitability a quarter sooner than expected, and our newer businesses actually accelerated off their amazing growth in the first quarter.”
Upstart Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $213.4M (Est: $199.5M) 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: ($0.03) (Est: $0.17) 🔴
🔹 Adj Net Income: $25M (Est: $16M) 🟢
Q2'25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: ~$225M (Est: $223.7M) 😐
🔹 Adj EBITDA: ~$37M
🔹 Adj Net Income: ~$25M
🔹 GAAP Net Loss: ~-$10M
FY25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: ~$1.01B (Est: $1.001B) 😐
🔹 Adj EBITDA Margin: ~19%
🔹 Revenue from Fees: ~$920M
🔹 Net Interest Income: ~$90M
🔹 GAAP Net Income expected positive in H2
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $42.6M
🔹 Contribution Margin: 55% (vs. 59% YoY)
🔹 GAAP Net Loss: -$2.4M (vs. -$64.6M YoY)
🔹 Loan Volume: $2.1B (+89% YoY)
🔹 Loans Originated: 240,706 (+102% YoY)
🔹 Conversion Rate: 19.1% (vs. 14.0% YoY)
Strategic & Operational Updates
🔸 Signed $1.2B loan-purchase agreement with Fortress through March 2026
🔸 90% of Q1 loans were fully automated
🔸 Hosting Upstart AI Day on May 14, 2025
🔸 CEO: “AI is delivering a radically better product for consumers”
Upstart Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
$UPST (-3,75%) Upstart Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $213.4M (Est: $199.5M) 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: ($0.03) (Est: $0.17) 🔴
🔹 Adj Net Income: $25M (Est: $16M) 🟢
Q2'25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: ~$225M (Est: $223.7M) 😐
🔹 Adj EBITDA: ~$37M
🔹 Adj Net Income: ~$25M
🔹 GAAP Net Loss: ~-$10M
FY25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: ~$1.01B (Est: $1.001B) 😐
🔹 Adj EBITDA Margin: ~19%
🔹 Revenue from Fees: ~$920M
🔹 Net Interest Income: ~$90M
🔹 GAAP Net Income expected positive in H2
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $42.6M
🔹 Contribution Margin: 55% (vs. 59% YoY)
🔹 GAAP Net Loss: -$2.4M (vs. -$64.6M YoY)
🔹 Loan Volume: $2.1B (+89% YoY)
🔹 Loans Originated: 240,706 (+102% YoY)
🔹 Conversion Rate: 19.1% (vs. 14.0% YoY)
Strategic & Operational Updates
🔸 Signed $1.2B loan-purchase agreement with Fortress through March 2026
🔸 90% of Q1 loans were fully automated
🔸 Hosting Upstart AI Day on May 14, 2025
🔸 CEO: “AI is delivering a radically better product for consumers”
Upstart Holdings - An AI FinTech with turnaround potential?
Upstart Holdings ($UPST (-3,75%) ) is a company that uses artificial intelligence to revolutionize lending. After a rapid rise during the low-interest phase, the share price plummeted as interest rates rose. But with a possible interest rate cut in 2025, the tide could turn again. Is Upstart ready for a comeback? 🚀
Overview: What does Upstart do?
Upstart is an AI-powered FinTech company that evaluates loans differently than traditional banks:
✅ AI-supported lending: Instead of relying solely on credit scores, Upstart uses artificial intelligence and over 1,600 variables to better assess credit risks.
✅ Partnership with banks: Upstart does not grant loans itself, but brokers them to banks and credit institutions. As a result, the company does not bear any default risk of its own.
✅ Automated processes: Over 80 % of loans are approved fully automatically, saving banks time and money.
The business model is based on the fact that banks can grant more loans with Upstart technology without increasing the risk.
Competition: Who are the competitors?
🔸 SoFi Technologies ($SOFI (-3,5%)
SOFI) - Also a growing FinTech with a strong focus on loans and banking.
🔸 LendingClub ($LC (-1,38%)
) - Similar model, but with a stronger focus on peer-to-peer lending.
🔸 Affirm ($AFRM (-2,48%)
) - Competition in the "Buy Now, Pay Later" sector, offering real-time lending.
🔸 Traditional banks - Large banks such as JPMorgan or Wells Fargo offer their own lending solutions and could put Upstart under pressure in the long term.
Opportunities: Why could Upstart take off again?
✅ Possible interest rate environment in 2025: Upstart has suffered greatly from high interest rates. If the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in 2025, demand for credit could rise again.
✅ AI advantage: Upstart's technology could help banks make more accurate lending decisions - especially in an environment where traditional credit ratings are often too rigid.
✅ Expansion into new lending areas: Upstart is expanding its model beyond traditional consumer loans to include car loans and mortgages. This could open up new growth opportunities.
✅ Partnerships with banks: Upstart already works with over 100 banks The more institutions use the platform, the larger the network becomes.
✅ Automation and efficiency: The company has cut costs significantly in recent quarters, which could improve profitability in the long term.
Risks: What could continue to weigh on Upstart?
⚠️ Interest rate risk: If interest rates remain high or continue to rise, demand for credit could remain weak.
⚠️ Regulatory risks: AI-supported lending is under scrutiny - new regulations could affect the business model.
⚠️ Confidence problem at banks: After recent weak quarters, some banks are reluctant to use Upstart loans. The company needs to prove its model again.
⚠️ Competitive pressure: Large banks and other FinTechs could develop their own AI models and take market share away from Upstart.
⚠️ High volatility: The share has shown strong fluctuations in the past. Investors must expect high volatility.
Conclusion: Turnaround or AI FinTech in crisis?
Upstart is an exciting company with an innovative idea that could revolutionize traditional lending. But after the massive fall in its share price, the company first has to prove itself again. If interest rates fall and banks start lending more again, Upstart could be one of the biggest winners.
What do you think? Is Upstart ready for a comeback or is it still a risky bet? 🚀
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