$OSCR (+2,21%)

⠀

📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬

• Adjusted EPS: $1.10 (Est. $0.38) ✅

• Revenue: $4.88B (Est. $4.75B) ✅

• Net Income: $361.8M, compared to a loss of $228.4M last year.

• Earnings from Operations: $388.6M, compared to a loss of $230.5M last year.

• Adjusted EBITDA: $415.3M, compared to a loss of $199.4M last year.

• Medical Loss Ratio: 79.2%, improved from 91.1% last year.

⠀

🎯 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞

• FY2026 Revenue: $18.7B–$19.0B (Est. $18.57B) ✅

• FY2026 Medical Loss Ratio: 81.5%–82.5%, improved from 82.4%–83.4%. ⬆️

• FY2026 SG&A Expense Ratio: 15.6%–16.1%, improved from 15.8%–16.3%. ⬆️

• FY2026 Earnings from Operations: $500M–$700M, raised from $250M–$450M. ⬆️

⠀

📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬

• Total revenue increased 70% YoY, driven by higher membership growth and premium rate increases.

• Membership reached 2.96 million, up from 2.03 million a year ago.

• Strong underwriting performance and favorable reserve development drove record first-half profitability.

• Oscar maintained its revenue outlook while raising profitability guidance across key operating metrics.

⠀

💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲

"Oscar delivered record profitability in the first half of the year and we are raising our full-year 2026 guidance. Our superior operating performance and execution against the fundamentals of our strategy are accelerating the individual market. More people are moving between full- and part-time jobs, gig work, and retirement – a shift AI will accelerate."

Markets are unpredictable.

You can’t know when they’ll top, bottom, or reverse.

What you can do is read the trend.

That’s where Elliott Wave and Fibonacci can help: not to predict the future with certainty, but to understand whether a stock or index is in an impulse, a correction, or a reversal zone.

For long-term investors, this is useful for timing trims, adds, and re-entries.

Not for trading every move, but for managing capital better.

And yes, no capital gains tax would make technical analysis much easier.

But in the real world, taxes matter — so for strong growth names, fundamentals still count a lot.

There’s no perfect timing.

Only better probabilities.

$NBIS (+1,19%)
$RKLB (+0,77%)
$OSCR (+2,21%)
$NOVO B (-0,67%)
$HIMS (+0,52%)
$SOFI (-1,57%)
$UNH (+1,6%)
$ASTS (+2,4%)
$ETH (+0,85%)
$GOOG (+1,14%)
$DLO (+0,38%)
$AMZN (+5,24%)
$BTC (+0,83%)
$ISP (-1,87%)
$DGX (+0,43%)
$BABA (-0,41%)

On my latest DCA, I added more $BABA (-0,41%) because the stock is now trading below my average cost basis. That kind of weakness is exactly when I want to size in, not out.

Alibaba is one of the most important company of the Chinese market, and in my view it still makes sense to keep it as a counterweight in a portfolio that already has a lot of U.S. exposure. The market may be pricing in too much fear, while the long-term optionality is still there.

The setup is not perfect, and that is the point. Free cash flow has been under pressure because Alibaba is spending heavily on AI, cloud infrastructure, and strategic bets in quick commerce, which compressed margins and pushed down FY2026 free cash flow.

So yes, free cash flow is weaker right now. But that weakness is tied to investment, not to a broken business model. If Alibaba executes on AI and cloud the way management is aiming to, this could look cheap.

For me, this is a big buy because the numbers matter: depressed valuation, real revenue growth, solid EPS base, and a strategic AI spend cycle that could create a stronger earnings profile later.

$BABA (-0,41%) is approaching a key technical area where wave 2 appears to be completing around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 200-week moving average. If this base holds, the next leg higher could point to a wave 3 extension toward 1.618, which in this framework lines up with the old all-time high around $320. The chart also shows a bullish cup-and-handle structure, which makes the technical case more interesting while fundamentals stay intact.

$NBIS (+1,19%)
$RKLB (+0,77%)
$OSCR (+2,21%)
$NOVO B (-0,67%)
$HIMS (+0,52%)
$SOFI (-1,57%)
$UNH (+1,6%)
$ASTS (+2,4%)
$ETH (+0,85%)
$GOOG (+1,14%)
$DLO (+0,38%)
$AMZN (+5,24%)
$BTC (+0,83%)
$ISP (-1,87%)
$DGX (+0,43%)

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-0,67%) has gone through a sharp rerating, and in my view the market is now pricing in a much more pessimistic scenario than the business deserves. The stock is trading around 39.50euro.

What makes the setup interesting is that the market is comparing Novo directly with Eli Lilly, and Lilly’s $LLY (-0,79%) stronger near-term growth profile is clearly weighing on Novo’s valuation. Lilly has been guiding to much faster sales growth in 2026, while Novo has been hit by pricing pressure, a tougher U.S. environment, and lower guidance for the year.

That said, the oral Wegovy launch is a real catalyst, not just a narrative. In Q1 2026, the oral version crossed 2 million total prescriptions since launch, with weekly prescriptions surpassing 200,000 in mid-April.

From my perspective, the key question is not whether Novo is under pressure today — it clearly is — but whether the market is underestimating the optionality of the oral franchise and the company’s ability to reaccelerate growth over the next few years.

I own shares because I think the current valuation reflects too much short-term fear and not enough credit for the long-term obesity and GLP-1 opportunity. If the oral segment keeps scaling and Novo executes well, the gap between sentiment and fundamentals could narrow meaningfully.

$NOVO B (-0,67%)
$HIMS (+0,52%)
$OSCR (+2,21%)
$UNH (+1,6%)

I started by posting my results, but performance is only the surface.

What really matters is the process behind every decision.

I invest with a long-term mindset, focused on stock picking, growth businesses, and portfolio construction.

From here on, I want to share not only what I own, but why I own it, how I categorize each position, and what role it plays in my portfolio.

My goal is simple:

to turn a portfolio into a thesis, and a thesis into a public journey.

I’m not here to chase hype or pretend to have all the answers.

I’m here to think in public, learn in public, and compound over time.

If you’re interested in public investing thoughts, portfolio context, and long-term conviction, follow along.

$NBIS (+1,19%)
$OSCR (+2,21%)
$HIMS (+0,52%)
$RKLB (+0,77%)
$UNH (+1,6%)
$ETH (+0,85%)
$SOFI (-1,57%)
$BABA (-0,41%)
$GOOG (+1,14%)
$NOVO B (-0,67%)
$ASTS (+2,4%)
$BTC (+0,83%)
$DLO (+0,38%)
$AMZN (+5,24%)
$MSFT (+1,23%)
$ISP (-1,87%)
$DGX (+0,43%)

For a long time I looked at the crypto market and saw nothing but a digital casino.

Between the 10,000% "to the moon" pumps and the endless sea of meme coins, it’s hard not to feel like the whole thing is just a giant game of bulls***.

I’ve spent the last few weeks watching YouTube videos and I have to admit that the Bitcoin ecosystem is an absolute masterpiece. Seeing it explained as a decentralized, self-sustaining machine changed my perspective from " bulls*** " to "speculative innovation."

Very good videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vclZlAFXpEI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-D3ChoNtlX8

Please recommend more!

My Current Setup (Noob)

I’ve decided to start small. A low allocation just to start playing the game. Currently, I’m running a 90/10 split: (100€ monthly)

• 90% Bitcoin ($BTC (+0,83%)): It’s the king for a reason I guess.
• 10% Binance Coin ($BNB (+1,68%)): Just because of the 25% discount on trading fees on binance and it is too good to ignore.

I’m fully aware I’m still "uneducated" in this space. I love the idea of decentralized tokens, but I’m struggling to understand the utility of other altcoins without them feeling like a roll of the dice.

Is a 90/10 BTC/BNB split too "safe," or is it the smartest way to start?

Are there other "beautiful machines" (actual utility projects) I should look into that are not just hype and noise? Because when I look at $ETH (+0,85%) for example isn't it just Bitcoin but worst?

The 100€ montlhy deposit on binance is all automated but is it the best? I transfer to binance and then it auto converts 25€ each week to btc and bnb. I feel that I am paying more in spread for than I usually pay on spot trading for some reason. Please help

$BTC (+0,83%) , $ETH (+0,85%) , $SOL (+1,86%) , $USDT (-0,29%) , $USDC (-0,27%) , $XRP (+1,83%) , $AVAX (-6,03%) , $BNB (+1,68%) , $ADA (+0,29%) , $SHIB (+2,24%) , $DOT (+5,66%) , $DOGE (+1,79%) , $LUNA (+3,68%) , $ASML (+0,92%) , $NVDA (+1,45%) , $NVO (-0,81%) , $NOVO B (-0,67%) , $V (+0,18%) , $PLTR (+4,9%) , $MSFT (+1,23%) , $NFLX (-0,74%) , $IREN (+2,06%) , $NBIS (+1,19%) , $DAPP (+0,76%) , $CIFR (-1,32%) , $DUOL , $MCD (+0,32%) , $MA (+0,55%) , $MARA (-2,24%) , $SE (-5,04%) , $OSCR (+2,21%) , $UNH (+1,6%) , $CRM (+0,96%) , $NOW (+2,84%)

#Crypto
#Bitcoin
#Investing
#Beginner
#BNB
#PortfolioStrategy

$OSCR (+2,21%)

🔹 Revenue: $2.81B (Est. $3.11B) 🔴

🔹 EPS: ($1.24) (Est. ($0.89)) 🔴

FY26 Guide (Raise):

🔹 Revenue: $18.7B–$19.0B (Est. $12.756B) 🟢

🔹 MLR: 82.4%–83.4%

🔹 SG&A Expense Ratio: 15.8%–16.3%

🔹 Earnings from Ops: $250M–$450M

Other Metrics:

🔹 Total Members: 2,042,449 (as of Dec 31, 2025)

🔹 Individual and Small Group Members: 2,042,449 (as of Dec 31, 2025)

Financials:

🔹 Q4 Total Revenue: $2,805.235M

🔹 Q4 MLR: 95.4%

🔹 Q4 SG&A Expense Ratio: 18.2%

🔹 Q4 Loss from Ops: ($333.747M)

🔹 Q4 Net Loss attributable to Oscar: ($352.611M)

🔹 Q4 Adj. EBITDA: ($307.782M)

Other Events:

🔹 Revolving Credit Facility: $475M secured 3-year revolver (entered Feb 6, 2026)

🔹 Data conflict: Membership shows “~3.4M” in your note vs “2,042,449” in the financial tables (as of Dec 31, 2025)

Commentary:

🔸 “2025 was a reset year for the individual market, and we took decisive actions to return to profitability in 2026.”

🔸 “...drove record-high membership – positioning us to achieve significantly improved financial performance in 2026.”

🔸 “We took opportunistic steps to strengthen our balance sheet and optimize our capital structure.”