How do you see the current situation regarding $ASML (+1,26%) ? Do you think it is still worth getting in, as the company is actually quite future-proof
What is your opinion?
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475How do you see the current situation regarding $ASML (+1,26%) ? Do you think it is still worth getting in, as the company is actually quite future-proof
What is your opinion?
Already at a plus of 3% or only at 5% or more?
What do the wise among you say?
I know your DCA thesis, but I'll tell you what you already know: It will go down again.
I'd rather suspend the savings plans, build up cash again and wait until it crashes again, when I can make individual purchases or set up savings plans again.
Another question that has nothing to do with this article. Why is $GIS (+0,67%) going so badly? Have we already seen the low point?
💡 Core Investment Thesis
ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV lithography, making it indispensable for advanced AI chips and semiconductor innovation. Despite geopolitical turbulence and tariff uncertainty, its record €63bn order backlog and technological moat position it for long-term growth. However, a 21% valuation premium and China exposure (25% of sales) demand cautious optimism amid trade tensions.
📊 Financial Health & Performance
Q1 2025 Highlights
2025 Outlook
🌍 Governmental & Legislative Catalysts/Risks
Tailwinds
Headwinds
💷 Dividends & Shareholder Returns
📈 Growth Projections & Valuation
2025–2030 Outlook
Valuation Metrics
Metric ASML Sector Avg
Share Price €747.07 –
P/E (TTM) 29.62x 25x
Price/Sales 8.39x 2.5x
Analyst Target €904.40 (avg) Range: €578–€1,100
Rationale: Premium pricing reflects ASML’s irreplaceable EUV technology, but tariffs could compress margins by 500bps.
⚠️ Key Risks
Trade War Escalation: 20% revenue exposed to U.S.-China tensions; tariff hikes may erode 2025 EPS by 8–10%.
Execution Delays: Customers (e.g., Intel, TSMC) postponing equipment orders due to semiconductor overcapacity.
Valuation Sensitivity: High P/E vulnerable if AI demand slows or High NA adoption underperforms.
Regulatory Overreach: Stricter EU export controls on lithography tools to China.
🎯 Investment Recommendation
Accumulate on Dips Below €700 (3–5-year horizon):
Bottom Line: ASML is a foundational bet on AI and semiconductor sovereignty, but its premium valuation requires geopolitical vigilance. The €63bn backlog provides resilience, while tariff clarity could unlock significant upside. Monitor Q2 2025 bookings for demand confirmation.
Is ASML’s 29.62x P/E justified given its EUV monopoly and 55.62% ROE?
How will U.S. tariffs reshape Europe’s semiconductor ambitions?
Can dividend growth offset low yield for income-focused portfolios?
Data as of 29 May 2025 | British English conventions applied ("labour", "favourable", "centred")
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Conduct your own due diligence. Past performance ≠ future results.
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Today I‘m sharing with you my main portfolio. This doesn’t include any ETF investments and crypto currencies / gold etc. since I want to focus my presence on getquin on stock-picking.
Read my 3-part portfolio strategy posts to get the full picture - here are just the main pillars of what I‘m doing:
I like to divide my holdings into „core holdings“ (forever stocks) and „trend picks“ (2030 stocks) as follows:
Core Holdings (“Forever Stocks”):
Growth Picks (“2030 Stocks”):
I use the 7 Powers framework from the book “7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy” by Hamilton Helmer. It’s a killer framework for understanding why some businesses create lasting value and compound returns over time.
Each “Power” is a sustainable strategic advantage that lets a company generate outsized returns for a long time. I ask the 7 questions for each stock I am considering to buy.
1. Counter-Positioning
2. Scale Economies
3. Switching Costs
4. Network Effects
5. Branding
6. Cornered Resource
7. Process Power
If I had to chose one, Network effects would be the most important one for me.
Here are my current holdings:
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