Hello my dears,
There have already been sales and discussions about this here in the community.
How endangered do you see ASML?
We consider the ASML share to be fairly valued and are maintaining our "Wide Moat" rating.
Javier Correonero
Dec 19, 2025
Latest news on the ASML share
According to Reuters, Chinese scientists have built a prototype of a machine that can generate extreme ultraviolet light. The team, which includes former ASML employees, is said to have developed the machine through reverse engineering by sourcing components from the second-hand market.
Why this is important:
It's not the first time claims of "EUV killer" technology - or China's alleged attempts to steal such technology - have made headlines, nor will it be the last.
- Even if China were able to produce some EUV
light, it could take years, if not decades, to turn it into an economically viable process. ASML machines contain not only extraordinarily complex optics, but also ultra-precise "mechatronics", vacuum systems, metrology, software and arguably the best supply chain integration ever built.
- A modern factory requires 10 to 20 low NA EUV tools running 24/7 with 99% availability. Manufacturing an EUV chip on a lab scale with unlimited trial and error cycles is not comparable to manufacturing in a leading TSCM fab.
Conclusion: We maintain our "wide moat" valuation and our fair value estimate of EUR 850. Investors seem to be increasingly well-trained in interpreting these headlines, as evidenced by the fact that the stock remained unchanged on December 18.
- Even in a hypothetical scenario where China assembles some sort of EUV machine, customers would continue to choose ASML, not only because of its superior technology and cost per unit, but also for geopolitical reasons. ASML's most important customers are in Taiwan, South Korea and the US, which are not geopolitically linked to China.
- ASML will become less dependent on China over time. We estimate that China will account for 20% of system sales and a smaller percentage of total sales by 2030, compared to 30% to 40% in 2023 to 2025.
Long-term perspective: For investors who want to gain a deeper insight into ASML and the complexity of EUV, we recommend the documentary "ASML's Secret: An Exclusive View From Inside the Global Semiconductor Giant" by VPRO from 2022. "Chip War" by Chris Miller and "Focus: The ASML Way" by Marc Hijink are also very informative.
