A few days before the Bundestag elections, Wall Street has discovered its special love for Europe and German second-line stocks. The small cap index MDaxwhich is usually overshadowed by the Dax, is suddenly enjoying a level of attention not seen for years. Several major Wall Street addresses have published analyses of the index of medium-sized companies almost simultaneously.

The MDax is considered to be one of the most undervalued indices in the Old World and this is precisely what makes it particularly attractive from Wall Street's perspective. The Bundestag elections are fueling this bet: if Germany manages to turn the economy around afterwards, the MDax could benefit disproportionately.

Around a third of the MDax companies' business is attributable to the domestic market. Accordingly, the local misery has weighed much more heavily on the index. By contrast, the index has not yet priced in the economic policy stimuli that could arise after the election.

Possible beneficiaries are (examples):

Through lower energy costs:

$WCH (-0,13%) | $LXS (+0,14%) | $GBF (-0,46%)

Improved consumer sentiment:

$CTS (-0,9%) | $BOSS (+0,31%) | $SIX2 (-0,48%)

Suitable funds could be

$EXID (+0,08%) | $MD4X (-0,03%)

Source (excerpts) & graphic:

WELT editorial team "Alles auf Aktien"

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- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NIKE from USD 82 to USD 84. Buy. $NKE (-0,48%)

- RBC raises the price target for ALPHABET A SHARE from USD 210 to USD 235. Outperform. $GOOGL (-2,28%)

- RBC raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 225 to USD 255. Outperform. $AMZN (-2,39%)

- RBC raises the price target for META from USD 630 to USD 700. Outperform. $META (-1,11%)

- ODDO BHF raises the target price for MUNICH RE from EUR 540 to EUR 555. Outperform. $MUV2 (-0,6%)

- ODDO BHF upgrades HERMES to Neutral. Target price EUR 2315. $RMS (+0,11%)

- ODDO BHF raises the target price for AIRBUS from EUR 168 to EUR 180. Outperform. $AIR (-3,2%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 58 to EUR 61. Outperform. $FRA (+0,51%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for FEDEX from USD 366 to USD 370. Overweight. $FDX (-5,06%)

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- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for NIKE from USD 97 to USD 91. Buy. $NKE (-0,48%)

- BOFA lowers the price target for NIKE from USD 95 to USD 90. Buy. $NKE (-0,48%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades CARBIOS to Neutral. $ALCRB (-0,25%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for LANXESS from EUR 31 to EUR 30. Buy. $LXS (+0,14%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the target price for DEUTZ from EUR 8.50 to EUR 7. Buy. $DEZ (-0,91%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for VERTEX from USD 509 to USD 418. Equal-Weight. $VRTX (+0,82%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for BIRKENSTOCK from 59.10 USD to 57.90 USD. Neutral. $BIRK (-3,71%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades TEAMVIEWER from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 17 to EUR 12. $TMV (+1,21%)

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- GOLDMAN raises the price target for DELL from USD 155 to USD 165. Buy. $DELL (-1,59%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for ANALOG DEVICES from USD 247 to USD 261. Buy. $ADI (-0,67%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for HP INC from USD 35 to USD 38. Neutral. $HPQ (-0,12%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 40.20 to EUR 42.30. Buy. $VNA (+0,26%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH upgrades STRATEC from Hold to Buy. Target price 40 EUR. $SBS4

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 235 to EUR 237. Buy. $DB1 (-0,57%)

- MORGAN STANLEY raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 33 to EUR 38. Overweight. $DTE (+0,67%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for TRATON from EUR 31.80 to EUR 35.50. Neutral. $8TRA (-0,07%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for BRENNTAG from EUR 94 to EUR 95. Buy. $BNR (+0,43%)

- BERENBERG upgrades EQUINOR from Hold to Buy and raises target price from NOK 290 to NOK 325. $EQNR (-0,16%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for BEIERSDORF from EUR 150 to EUR 160. Overweight. $BEI (+0,37%)

- JPMORGAN upgrades HENKEL from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 82 to EUR 100. $HEN (-0,41%)

- JPMORGAN upgrades BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO to Neutral. $BATS (-1,84%)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for EON from EUR 15.50 to EUR 16. Overweight. $EOAN (+0,41%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for AUTO1 from EUR 12.10 to EUR 17.10. Overweight. $AG1 (+0,69%)

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- STIFEL lowers the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 207 to EUR 202. Buy. $SIE (-0,45%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HP INC from USD 41 to USD 40. Overweight. $HPQ (-0,12%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for LANXESS from EUR 40 to EUR 37. Buy. $LXS (+0,14%)

- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for BASF from EUR 49 to EUR 46. Neutral. $BAS (+1,69%)

- RBC lowers the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18 to EUR 17.25. Sector Perform. $CBK (-0,9%)

- RBC lowers the target price for ING from EUR 17.50 to EUR 16.75. Sector-Perform. $ING (-0,3%)

- RBC lowers the price target for BNP PARIBAS from EUR 79 to EUR 78. Outperform. $BNP (+0,41%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ELRINGKLINGER from EUR 6.70 to EUR 6. Neutral. $ELLRY (-1,09%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 130 to EUR 120. Overweight. $SY1 (+0,2%)

Analyst updates, 22.11.

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- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 115 to EUR 116. Hold. $SY1 (+0,2%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB upgrades SECUNET from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 102 to EUR 123. $YSN (-1,34%)

- CITIGROUP raises the price target for ALSTOM from EUR 22 to EUR 26. Buy. $ALO (-2,19%)

- BERENBERG upgrades BRENNTAG from Hold to Buy. Target price EUR 76. $BNR (+0,43%)

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- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for PROSIEBENSAT.1 from EUR 8 to EUR 6.50. Hold. $PSM (+11,02%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for RTL from EUR 40 to EUR 34. Buy. $RTLL (+0,64%)

- LBBW lowers the price target for LANXESS from EUR 29 to EUR 28. Buy. $LXS (+0,14%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for CTS EVENTIM from EUR 107 to EUR 105. Buy. $EVD (+0,29%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for BEFESA from EUR 38 to EUR 35. Buy. $BFSA (-1,45%)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for RENK from EUR 35 to EUR 33. Buy. $DE000RENK730 (-0,91%)

- UBS lowers target price for RWE from EUR 49 to EUR 45. Buy. $RWE (+1,08%)

Summary Earnings, 07.11.

$MUV2 (-0,6%)
| Munich Re Q3 24 Earnings

EPS EU7.02 (est EU6.67)

Sees FY Insurance Rev. About EU61B, Saw About EU59B

Sees FY Profit Above EU5B, Saw EU5B

$RHM (-1,89%) | Rheinmetall AG Q3 24 Earnings

Sales EU2.45B (est EU2.42B)

Still Sees FY Sales About EU10B (est EU9.99B)

Sees FY Operating Margin At Upper End Of Guidance

Nissan Motor Q2 2024 Earnings $7201 (+7,76%)

Q2 Operating Income 31.91B Yen (est 65.25B Yen)

Q2 Net Loss 9.34B Yen (est Profit 49.07B Yen)

Sees FY Oper Income 150.00B Yen, Saw 500.00B Yen

To Cut 9,000 Jobs Globally

To Reduce Global Production Capacity By 20%

To Sell Back Up To 10.02% Of Mitsubishi Motors Shares

Air France KLM Q3 24 Earnings $AF

EBITDA EU1.90B (est EU1.9B)

Rev EU8.98B (est EU8.88B)

Net Income EU780M (est EU874.3M)

Sees FY Capex EU3B, Saw Below EU3B

$TEF (+1,17%) | Telefonica Q3 24 Earnings

REV. EU10.02B (est EU10B)

Adj. EBITDA EU3.26B (est EU3.26B)

Net Income EU10M (est EU357M)

To Book €314 Million Non-Cash Impairment For Peru

ArcelorMittal Q3 24 Earnings: $MT (-0,49%)

- Sales $15.20B (est $15.23B)

- EBITDA $1.58B (est $1.47B)

- Still Sees FY CAPEX $4.5B To $5.0B

- Markets Conditions Are 'Unsustainable'

- Positive On Medium/Long Term Outlook

Daimler Truck Holdings Q3 24 Earnings: $DTG (-1,07%)

- Rev EU13.14B (est EU12.98B)

- Adj EBIT EU1.19B (est EU1.13B)

- Still Sees FY Rev EU53B To EU55B (est EU53.45B)

Adyen disappoints with lower than expected sales growth and loses 13% on the stock market. $ADYEN (-0,84%)

Lanxess-shares rise by 4.4% to 26.80 euros after a positive quarterly report, having previously fallen by 13%. The operating margin exceeds expectations, although prices weaken. $LXS (+0,14%)

National Grid increased its adjusted operating profit by 14% to 2 billion pounds in the first half of the financial year and expects an increase of around 10% for the year as a whole. Higher fees in New York and higher revenues in the UK are supporting growth. $NG. (-0,43%)

AMS-Osram increased its profitability in the third quarter despite a decline in sales, but expects business development to be subdued in the fourth quarter and early 2025. To ensure profitability, the company plans further cost reductions of 225 million euros by the end of 2026. $AMS

Suess Microtec is more optimistic after a strong third quarter and now expects to achieve its annual targets in the upper half of the forecast range. Sales are expected to reach 380 to 410 million euros, with an EBIT margin of 14 to 16 percent. $SMHN (-1,71%)

The investment company Mutares slips into the red operationally in the third quarter with an adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR 16.5 million. However, sales increased by 14% to 3.9 billion euros. $MUX (+1,91%)

Delivery Hero expects a free cash flow of EUR 50 to 100 million for 2024 and anticipates GMV growth at the upper end of the forecast of 7 to 9 percent. However, the Group expects adjusted EBITDA to be at the lower end of the range of EUR 725 to 775 million. $DHE

Deutz recorded an 80% drop in profits to EUR 7.2 million in the third quarter and slipped into the red with a bottom line of EUR 2 million. Turnover falls by 14.9% to 430.4 million euros due to a slump in demand. $DEZ (-0,91%)

Compugroup Medical records a decline in EBITDA in the third quarter

EBITDA fell by 12% to 54.9 million euros in the third quarter, but slightly exceeded

analysts' expectations slightly. Turnover falls by 1% to 283.4 million euros

euros, and the company confirms its reduced forecast for 2024. $COP (-0,63%)

Alzchem reports a jump in profits for the first nine months with

a 36% increase in EBITDA to EUR 76.8 million and increases the EBITDA margin to

EBITDA margin to 18.5 %. The Group is sticking to its profit target for 2024

but is aiming for the lower end of the sales forecast due to the discontinuation of low-margin

the lower end of the sales forecast. $ACT (-0,43%)

Nordex is raising its forecast for the EBITDA margin for 2024 and

now expects it to be closer to the upper end of the range of three to four

percent. In the first nine months of the year, the company recorded

an increase in revenue of 14 percent to EUR 5.1 billion and an improved

improved EBITDA margin of 3.7 percent. $NDX1 (+0,87%)

Nemetschek recorded an increase in revenue in the third quarter thanks to the

thanks to the GoCanvas acquisition, Nemetschek recorded a 15.1% increase in revenues to 253 million euros,

however, earnings remained slightly below expectations. The

The operating costs of the acquisition put pressure on profits, so that EBITDA

increases by 6.7 %. $NEM (-0,34%)

Rational increases earnings before interest and taxes in the third quarter

taxes by 18% to just under 78 million euros, exceeding analysts'

analysts' expectations, while sales revenues grew by 8% to 294 million

euros. The company confirms its forecast for the year. $RAA (+1,23%)

A tale from our youth 👨🏻‍🔧🏭

Since I had some time today and took the opportunity to stow away my relics of days gone by, I found the mementos of when I started my career. Both the badge and the IGBCE membership card.

For those who are not familiar with it: The Industriegewerkschaft - Bergbau, Chemie, Energie is the second largest industrial union in Germany after IG Metall. It represents the interests of the 580,000 members in the mining, chemical and energy sectors in Germany.

Some readers may be interested to know what impact the current wage negotiations in the chemical industry may have on German shares in this sector.

The chemical industry currently employs around 585,000 people. Of these, around 464,000 are considered "employees".

The largest employer in the industry in Germany is BASF $BAS (+1,69%) with just under 51,000 employees. It is followed by Merck $MRK (-0,81%) (approx. 28,000) and Bayer $BAYN (+1,43%) (approx. 22,000), but also Henkel $HEN (-0,41%) Lanxess $LXS (+0,14%) and Covestro $1COV (+0,1%) are also major listed employers in the industry in Germany.

What can be recognized?

Across the industry, all companies have been deeply affected by past price shocks and the resulting economic weakness. This can be clearly seen in the share prices due to the price jumps in electricity and gas. Although the prices for electricity and gas have fallen back to an acceptable level, the order situation is rather miserable. The 3rd quarter of 2024 promises an improvement.

But could an economic upturn also boost profits again?

In the industry, long-term supply contracts are concluded. Supply contracts with reliable partners are rarely terminated. Instead, higher prices are passed on to the end customer. In many places, however, customers are no longer prepared to dig deeper into their pockets, which is why it is expensive to retain customers or acquire new ones. And if they do? Then new customers are lured in by low-cost offers, even though producers have to pay extra for years. The important thing here is that the production plant costs remain lower than the loss due to new contracts. Depending on the size of an idle production plant, the costs per hour can be in the four to five-digit euro range. So: the main thing is to produce, regardless of whether you have to pay hundreds of euros for months for a supply contract. The losses can be offset in the balance sheet with more profitable business or, under certain conditions, written off and thus save taxes. (Please note that this depends on the individual company and its business strategy. This cannot be generalized under any circumstances).

Back to the topic. What is the union demanding for the employees?

It is explicitly about

• a wage increase of 7%
• Better conditions for union members compared to non-members
• Revision of the federal collective wage agreement (this is explicitly about the integration of certain activities into the wage groups of the collective agreement)

In view of the fact that the union argues that employees' real wages have fallen back to the level of the 2010s due to inflation and that neither side is willing to compromise on this, the risk of strike action in the sector appears to be realistic for the first time since the 1970s.

But why?

• Sales in the chemical-pharmaceutical industry are weakening. There was no significant increase in turnover from 2022 to 2023.
• The profits of some companies have almost completely collapsed.
• They would not have survived these years without state aid. The reports of some German stocks show record sales due to the government price brakes on electricity and gas. The management also communicated this to investors, causing share prices to collapse accordingly.
• The sales markets are weakening. High inflation in the euro and dollar zones has left its mark. Real wages only climbed back to the 2021 level towards the end of 2023. People had to pay the difference in 2022 out of their own pockets, even though the state also subsidized the inflation compensation premium. Of course, many small and medium-sized companies in particular were not in a position to bear these employee costs.

What could happen next? (3 scenarios)

• Employers and trade unions negotiate a wage increase that is acceptable to both sides. Collective bargaining peace is maintained. Companies can calculate the economic upswing without further cost pressure. (This would also be a bullish signal for share prices in the chemical industry).
• Employers are uncompromising in their response to the union's demands. Cost pressure is increasing, which is likely to further dampen the chemical industry's business index, but the risk of strikes can be eradicated. (This would lead to further capital outflows from company stocks. However, investors can speculate on sales/integrations. The scenario is conceivable, as Covestro shows).
• The employers and trade union cannot reach an agreement. Strikes take place in the chemical industry in Germany for the first time since the 1970s. This could strengthen the employees and their influence. At the same time, however, it could give employers another reason to focus on their investments abroad. (This would be fatal for German manufacturers, their share prices and at the same time a downward impulse for a key industry in the German economy.

All in all, the German industrial landscape remains exciting and at the same time offers opportunities for investors. However, if you are invested in this sector, it is highly recommended that you follow the wage negotiations. On June 30, the current collective wage agreement for the chemical industry ends and with it the obligation to maintain peace. It remains exciting.

What do you think? Is it really conceivable that there will be strikes in a key German industry? Would politicians actively intervene and disrupt the autonomy of collective bargaining?

Small position in Spekulation's portfolio sold.

Lithium is interesting but there is still too much "dirt" in the market.

$SLI (-3,65%) remains on the watch, as I still find the company interesting, especially because of the cooperation with $LXS (+0,14%)

The money may flow into a new position in $YCA (-0,92%)

The speculation is working! Turnaround fully intact. 🚀

Deutsche Bank $DBK (+0,12%) is to find a buyer for the polyurethane division of Lanxess $LXS (+0,14%) to find a buyer.

This follows the German plastics competitor Covestro $1COV (+0,1%) in the departure of the plastics industry from Germany.

The exit will help Lanxess to further reduce its debt and continue to focus on specialty chemicals and further expand and consolidate its market position there. This division in the chemical industry is indispensable for good margins and future-oriented profits.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/lanxess-chemiekonzern-treibt-verkauf-von-polyurethan-geschaefts-voran/100007154.html

Brenntag continues to put on the turbo. 🚀

Lanxess tops, while BASF flops.

It is now very clear that only certain managers have internalized the corporate philosophy that enables them to lead companies through even the toughest crises.

Just under a month ago, I wrote an introduction to $BNR (+0,43%). Since then, there has not only been a veritable share price rally, but also great operational momentum.

Yesterday, December 7, the Brenntag subsidiary "Brenntag Specialties" signed an exclusive distribution agreement with Halox, the $ICL - subsidiary, for the Brazilian market.

This provides further impetus for the future. Not only does the company sense that Brazil is currently the strongest investment market and the associated economic peaks, but it also sees opportunities in the lucrative market for paints and coatings, which are extremely high-margin and cyclically robust in the chemical goods sector.

There was also great news for Lanxess $LXS (+0,14%) there was also great news:

• On the one hand, CEO Matthias Zachert bought ~€200,000 worth of shares, sending massive momentum to the broader market.
• Secondly, as I expected, the investor presentation showed that Lanxess is not dependent on outside capital, which investors had expected. The inflows from the operating business are driven by the efficiency increase in the course of the savings program and the short-term liabilities until 2025 can be covered with own funds.

BASF $BAS (+1,69%) remains one of the worst performers in the important German nuclear industry and will not see any improvement.

Although a comprehensive restructuring of the Group was also announced yesterday, this will also have no effect.

Among other things, the following measures were announced:

• Legal separation of the agriculture, battery business and coatings divisions and the associated margin increases
• Restructuring, in particular of the main plant in Ludwigshafen
• Reduction of the investment budget

So while getquin continues to celebrate a stable dividend, very few people are concerned about the future of the Group. Ultimately, the money that is missing from the investment budget is distributed from within the Group. Without a stable investment strategy and the associated innovations, BASF will lose further market shares, as these are currently only being bought through high discounts anyway, while margins are falling.

Here again, some clever people would argue with the gas price. However, commodity prices are in fact hardly relevant in purchasing. Prices will have normalized again in the course of 2023.

The crucial point for the continued weakness of the industry remains the downstream markets, in particular the construction and real estate sector, which has almost come to a standstill as a result of the price jumps in 2022 and most companies in these sectors are currently struggling to survive.

Another important point for holders of the share is likely to be the succession of the CEO. Unfortunately, relevant investors currently have little confidence in the share. The shares are predominantly held by private investors. Perhaps this should give people pause for thought, if only the social media feed can smell the incredible turnaround.

Great new impetus - belief in the turnaround is growing.

Some time ago, I already presented Lanxess in more detail. A lot has happened since then, which is why I would like to provide an update on the chemicals niche.

Lanxess is still $LXS (+0,14%) is one of the few German industrial stocks that I prefer, because the story on the stock market can be diverse and the ideas behind it are almost endless.

The portfolio convinces with its innovative strength in various future markets and its market position is undisputed.

However, it must also be borne in mind that there is still huge tension on the demand side. However, this is currently the case for almost every industrial company with predominantly European production capacities.

Here is a brief overview of important stimuli:

Lanxess delivered its Q3 figures in November, which were poor as expected. The forecast for the financial year was adjusted and the Management Board proposed a reduction in the dividend. There were no major surprises, but there were some interesting approaches.

I paid particular attention to the balance sheet. Despite the even worse year in 2023 compared to 2022, the balance sheet improved significantly.

This indicates certain trends in terms of market position, pricing methods and adapted management. Efficiency is increasing massively. 📈

Of course, there are also other factors to consider here:

• China is currently struggling with deflationary trends, which is why producers are coming under increasing pressure. Diversification into other Asian markets should be supported.

• Europe is weakening in terms of overall demand due to weak private consumption.

• South America continues to have a robust market, but political risks are now gradually receding. The Brazilian market in particular is currently showing great signs of recovery.

Unfortunately, the rating agency Moody's has downgraded the credit rating as a result. However, this was to be expected.

In the course of the cost-cutting program initiated by CEO Matthias Zachert, however, this should only be a temporary effect. Larger investments should generally not be expected due to market saturation.

The pipeline of modified specialty products continues to grow and the Group's innovative strength is confirmed time and again.

In the water treatment market, Lewatit MonoPlus TP 109 is a potential new bestseller. At least it has the potential to be. The product is an exchanger resin for water treatment. The resins are needed where water is of inadequate quality. This can be relevant on an industrial scale using pure water, but can also be used for domestic drinking water treatment if the groundwater tends to be unsuitable for use.

The product was presented at Aquatech.

There was also a press release today announcing that the cooperation with Standard Lithium $SLI (-3,65%) for the supply of lithium-containing brine. An investment in the company is still not planned and is not foreseeable.

Nevertheless, the partnership offers a huge opportunity to acquire new customers on the lithium market and thus a broad field of business in so-called future markets.