Today’s newsletter from “WELT | Alles auf Aktien” presents a bold thesis $SIE (+0,5%) that I’d like to share and quote here.
The authors put forward the bold thesis that Siemens is capable of joining the “trillion-Club” in the foreseeable future. That would be nearly five times its current value. While there’s still a long way to go, Siemens is already Germany’s most valuable publicly traded company. And in a few weeks, a decision could be made that will help determine whether this long-established industrial conglomerate will indeed one day become a global tech champion of this magnitude.
On October 1, Siemens plans to officially present itself as “One Tech Company.” From that moment on, CEO Roland Busch will massively ramp up his big bet on AI. Is now the right time to get on board?
Siemens underwent a radical transformation under Joe Kaeser. Siemens Energy
$ENR (-0,09%) and Siemens Healthineers
$SHL (+1,78%) were spun off. This met with fierce resistance at the time. Today, one can at least say that the remaining group is performing exceptionally well. Siemens posted a record profit of more than ten billion euros and margins exceeding 17 percent.
Siemens CEO Roland Busch now aims to build on this success. His program is called “One Tech Company.” The three major divisions—Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, and Mobility—will remain in place. Under this structure, Siemens aims to become leaner: less hierarchy, larger units, and clearer responsibilities.
The real stock market story is artificial intelligence (AI). Siemens aims to make industrial AI the connecting element of the group. Siemens operates where AI meets the real world: in factories, power grids, buildings, and infrastructure. It’s about machines that produce more efficiently, grids that are controlled more intelligently, and factories that operate with greater automation.
Our bullish thesis is therefore this: Siemens could increasingly evolve from a traditional industrial conglomerate into a technology and software company. That would also be decisive for its valuation. Industrial companies typically receive lower multiples on the stock market than tech conglomerates.
If Siemens proves that software, data, and AI can be monetized at scale, the market could eventually grant the company a higher valuation. This represents a potential path to a trillion. The catch: there is no such proof yet.
That is the central weakness of the narrative. Siemens still talks a lot about industrial AI, but does not report separately how much revenue and order intake it actually generates from it. So investors do not yet know exactly through what mechanism AI increases profits.
That is precisely why October 1 is so important. On that day, Busch must explain whether “One Tech Company” is more than just a new corporate slide and how it will specifically lead to more growth, higher margins, and stronger customer loyalty.
Even if the AI strategy pays off, there’s still a risk that Siemens has become more dependent on the AI cycle than one might assume at first glance. Data centers, semiconductors, electrification, and automation are all driven by the same investment boom. Should the AI euphoria fizzle out, it could hit several of Siemens’ businesses at once.
With medical technology and energy, Siemens has divested two stabilizing pillars. Siemens Energy, in particular, has since become a star on the German stock market. The works council openly states that Siemens would be even more valuable today if it still owned Siemens Energy and Siemens Healthineers. On the other hand, the record margins might not have been possible at all without this focus.
For investors, it’s the future that counts. Siemens must maintain high growth and margins; the restructuring must actually make everything more efficient; and the company must demonstrate that AI works not only technologically but also financially. To that end, concrete results must be evident by October 1.
If it succeeds, Siemens could become a European industrial conglomerate with an increasingly technology-driven valuation.
Source: WELT | Alles auf Aktien, August 19, 2026




