Until recently, close business relations with China were considered a blemish - investors punished such shares with discounts. But now the narrative has changed abruptly: Following the agreement in the trade dispute with the USA, China is suddenly being seen as an opportunity again.

"Welt" has analyzed data from the US investment bank Goldman Sachs analyzed. Goldman has compiled several indices that are heavily influenced by the China issue and which show how much of a discount the values still have.

Some European tech stocks with high China business are also identified as potential winners.

Some examples:

$ASM (+2,74%) - ASM International | Potential +27%

$ASML (+1,26%) - ASML +16%

$SHL (-0,05%) - Siemens Healthineers +26%

$MC (+0,36%) - LVMH +15%

$ADS (-0,19%) - Adidas +19%

Source: Welt, 13.05.25 (excerpt)

$ASML (+1,26%) - Interesting information and facts about ASML

In my opinion one of the biggest moats ever.

ASML was founded through a joint venture. Philips invented a new chip machine (wafer stepper) that was much more efficient.

However, as they did not want to take the risk of commercialization, they found a suitable partner in ASM International. $ASM (+2,74%) a suitable partner.

ASM Lithography was founded in 1984.

The laser used by ASML is manufactured by Trumpf in Germany.

• This laser consists of more than 450,000 different components. That shows how difficult it is.

Trumpf only sells this to ASML.

• The laser is a special product that was developed jointly by Trumpf, ASML and Zeiss.

The laser from Trumpf is used to

generate plasma for EUV light. The

plasma reaches temperatures of over

100,000 °C, hotter than the surface of the sun.

surface of the sun.

• Zeiss manufactures high-precision mirrors and lenses that reflect the generated EUV light and guide it to the exact position to print the chip.

Zeiss does not sell its unique products

to competitors

• In 2012, ASML bought 25 percent of Zeiss, a very significant stake.

• In 2013, they bought Cymer, an important supplier of light sources. This is one of the most important parts of the machine. The purchase of this company was crucial for the scaling of EUV machines.

• the first high NA EUV machines should be installed at Intel in the fourth quarter of this year. More will

follow in the coming years.

• This machine will cost around 400 million euros, require seven cargo ships and could potentially produce 1 nm chips in the future.

• They are the only ones who can build an EUV machine. These are used for the best, smallest and most innovative chips.

• DUV sales are still bigger than EUV sales, but that will change in the future.

• The machine is so complicated that no one else will be able to make it for years to come, so they have a 100% market share in these machines. They also have DUV machines (the previous generation). There they have an 80% -85% market share.

• ASML already has a new generation of EUV (High NA EUV) and the next one is planned for 2030. The first company other than ASML that will be able to produce an EUV generation will probably be later than 2030, especially because the machines consist of tens of thousands of parts and ASML has bought up several important suppliers.

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- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises its price target for BMW from EUR 90 to EUR 95. Buy. $DBK (+0,8%)

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for QUALCOMM from USD 200 to USD 215. Outperform. $QCOM (+1,77%)

- UBS raises the price target for LYFT from USD 13 to USD 18. Neutral. $LYFT (+0,52%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTH from EUR 60.50 to EUR 62.50. Overweight. $SHL (-0,05%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for KONTRON from EUR 28 to EUR 28.40. Buy. $KTN (-0,17%)

- UBS upgrades KINGSPAN GROUP from Neutral to Buy. Target price 90 EUR. $KRX (-0,82%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ZEAL NETWORK from EUR 59 to EUR 64. Buy. $TIMA (+0,22%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 42.70 to EUR 43.70. Buy. $VNA (+0,48%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for AHOLD DELHAIZE from EUR 30 to EUR 31. Equal-Weight. $AD (+0,37%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for FMC from EUR 38.50 to EUR 39. Equal-Weight. $FMC (+2,13%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18 to EUR 18.40. Overweight. $CBK (+0,47%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for PUMA SE from EUR 40 to EUR 44. Neutral. $PUM (+0,18%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 13.96 to GBP 14.15. Overweight. $TKWY (+0,08%)

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- JEFFERIES downgrades PALANTIR from Hold to Underperform. Target price USD 28. $PLTR (+7,48%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 1100 to DKK 1000. Buy. $NOVO B (+3,18%)

- RBC lowers the price target for NIKE from 82 USD to 80 USD. Sector Perform. $NKE (+2,44%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades ASM INTERNATIONAL to Outperform. Target price EUR 960. $ASM (+2,74%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades HENSOLDT from Buy to Hold. Target price EUR 34. $HAG (-6,7%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for ZALANDO from EUR 40 to EUR 36. Buy. $ZAL (-0,66%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 165 to DKK 150. Hold. $VWS (+3,32%)

- BOFA downgrades SIEMENS ENERGY from Buy to Neutral. Target price EUR 40. $ENR (+0,52%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 28.50 to EUR 28. Sell. $VNA (+0,48%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for TEAMVIEWER from EUR 18 to EUR 15.50. Overweight. $TMV (+1,35%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KLÖCKNER & CO from EUR 6 to EUR 5.70. Buy. $KCOB

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the target price for NORMA GROUP from EUR 32 to EUR 27. Buy. $NOEJ (+2,83%)

- WARBURG downgrades EDAG ENGINEERING from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 13 to EUR 9.50. $ED4 (-0,35%)

- LBBW lowers the price target for ALLGEIER from EUR 24 to EUR 20. Buy. $AEIA

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for HENKEL from EUR 79 to EUR 77. Equal-Weight. $HEN (+0,87%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for KRONES from EUR 157 to EUR 154. Buy. $KRN (+0,07%)

Analyst updates, 04.11.

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- BERENBERG raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 31.50. Buy. | $SHEL (+1,04%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for MTU from EUR 270 to EUR 350. Buy. | $MTX (+0,84%)

- BRYAN GARNIER raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 8.50 to EUR 10. Neutral. | $HFG (-2,85%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 84 to EUR 92. Buy. | $G24 (-1,03%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SANTANDER from EUR 5.75 to EUR 5.80. Buy. | $SAN (+1,16%)

- RBC raises the target price for NEXT PLC from GBP 105 to GBP 108. Sector Perform. | $NXT (-0,66%)

- UBS raises the price target for CHEVRON from USD 192 to USD 194. Buy. | $CVX (+2,81%)

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- UBS lowers the price target for BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY from USD 806.724 to USD 796.021. Buy. | $BRK.B (+1,58%)

- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for STMICRO from EUR 36 to EUR 30. Buy. | $STMPA (+1,05%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ASM INTERNATIONAL from EUR 806 to EUR 716. Overweight. | $ASM (+2,74%)

- RBC downgrades CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from Outperform to Sector-Perform and lowers target price from EUR 85 to EUR 70. | $AFX (+1,32%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KION from EUR 65 to EUR 58. Buy. | $KGX (+0,8%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades JENOPTIK from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from EUR 32 to EUR 30. | $JEN (+0,33%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 22 to EUR 21. Outperform. | $AIXA (-0,4%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for FIELMANN from EUR 45.70 to EUR 44.60. Neutral. | $FIE (-1,07%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from 65.50 EUR to 63.60 EUR. Sell. | $KBX (-0,5%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades STANDARD CHARTERED to Neutral. Target price GBP 9.37. | $STAN (+2,92%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for GENERALI from EUR 31.50 to EUR 30.50. Buy. | $G (+0,79%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for PHILIPS from EUR 35 to EUR 32. Buy. | $PHIA (+1,57%)

ASM International Q3 2024 $ASM (+2,74%)

Financial performance:

ASM International reported a strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2024 with revenue of 779 million €which represents an increase of 26 % year-on-year (at constant currencies) and at the upper end of the guidance range of 740-780 million is at the upper end of the forecast range. New orders also recorded a significant increase to 815 millionwhich represents an increase of 30 % year-on-year (at constant currencies). Adjusted operating profit rose to 220 millioncompared to 157 million in the third quarter of 2023, which corresponds to an adjusted operating margin of 28,2 % corresponds to.

Balance sheet analysis:

ASM's balance sheet remains robust, with an increase in total assets to € 4,699 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to € 4,227 million at the end of December 2023. The cash position improved significantly to 747 million €compared to 637 million at the end of June 2024. Equity also increased to 3,430 million and shows a strong ratio of equity to assets.

Income overview:

The gross margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 49,4 %slightly decreased from 49,8 % in the second quarter of 2024, but increased compared to 48,9 % in the third quarter of 2023. The operating result margin improved to 27,6 %driven by higher revenue and a one-off gain from the sale of a building. The net profit amounted to 127.9 millionwhereby the adjusted net profit amounted to 133.6 million which represents a decrease compared to the previous quarter due to currency losses.

Cash flow analysis:

In the third quarter of 2024, ASM generated free cash flow of 242 millioncompared to 103 million in the second quarter of 2024, which is attributable to higher profitability, lower working capital requirements and reduced capital expenditure. Net cash flow from operating activities amounted to 295.2 millionan increase from € 195 million in the second quarter of 2024.

Key figures and profitability:

The adjusted gross margin amounted to 49,4 %and the adjusted operating margin amounted to 28,2 %. The ratio of orders to sales remained at 1,0which indicates a balance between incoming orders and sales.

Segment analysis:

Sales growth was driven by strong demand in the Gate-All-Around (GAA) and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) segments. Sales from devices increased by 22 % year-on-year, while revenue from spare parts and services increased by 45 % increase.

Competitive analysis:

ASM holds a leading position in the atomic layer deposition (ALD) market, which is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% to 14 from 2022 to 2027. The company is also expanding its position in the silicon epitaxy (Si Epi) market and growing selectively in PECVD and vertical furnaces.

Forecasts and management commentary:

For the fourth quarter of 2024, ASM forecasts sales of between 770-810 million €. The company expects sales related to ATM to continue to grow in 2025, despite mixed conditions in the end markets.

Risks and opportunities:

Risks include potential impact from investment cuts in advanced logic/foundry spending and lower sales in China in the second half of 2024. Opportunities lie in the growing demand for advanced semiconductor devices and the SiC Epi market.

Summary and strategic implications:

ASM's strong financial performance in Q3 2024, supported by robust demand in key technology segments, positions the company well for future growth. The strategic focus on innovation and expanding market share in high-growth areas such as ATM and SiC Epi is in line with long-term industry trends. The company's solid cash position and strong balance sheet provide a basis for continued investment in growth opportunities and returns to shareholders.

Positive statements:

• Significant increase in salesASM International reported an increase in sales of 26 % year-on-year (at constant currencies) and reached € 779 million in the third quarter of 2024 779 million €which represents a new quarterly record and is at the upper end of its guidance.
• Robust free cash flow: The company generated free cash flow of € 242 million in the third quarter of 2024 242 millionan increase of 103 million in the second quarter of 2024, which is attributable to higher profitability and efficient working capital management.
• Increase in new ordersNew orders increased by 30 % year-on-year (at constant currencies) and reached 815 millionmainly driven by strong demand for Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) DRAM applications.
• Improved adjusted operating marginThe company's adjusted operating margin improved to 28,2 %which represents an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year, supported by higher gross profits and a one-off gain from the sale of a building.
• Strong liquidityThe company's cash position improved significantly to 747 million € at the end of September 2024, compared to € 637 million at the end of June 2024, indicating strong liquidity.

Negative statements:

• Decline in net profits: Net profits fell in the third quarter of 2024 to 127.9 million €whereby the adjusted net profits amounted to 133.6 million reflecting a decrease compared to the previous quarter due to currency translation losses.
• Currency translation lossThe company suffered a currency translation loss of € 48 million in the third quarter of 2024. 48 millioncompared to gains in the previous periods, mainly due to changes in the US dollar.
• Decline in sales figures in ChinaSales figures in China are expected to be lower in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, with the sales forecast for the fourth quarter expected to be lower than for the third quarter.
• Decrease in net working capitalThe company's net working capital decreased to 412 millioncompared to 502 million on June 30, 2024, which is mainly due to higher contractual liabilities and accrued expenses.
• Risks due to investment cutbacksDespite the overall positive outlook, the company faces risks due to the potential impact of investment cuts in the area of advanced logic/foundry, which could affect future growth.

Largest European tech stocks by market capitalization

SAP € 259 billion $SAP (+0,52%)

ASML € 253 billion $ASML (+1,26%)

ARM Holdings € 160 billion $ARM (+4,18%)

NXP Semiconductors € 54 billion $NXPI (+0,83%)

Dassault Systèmes € 44 billion $DSY (-0,94%)

Infineon € 40 billion $IFX (+0,83%)

Capgemini € 32 billion $CAP (+2,47%)

ASM International € 26 billion $ASM (+2,74%)

Ericsson € 26 billion $ERIC B (-1,04%)

Hexagon € 23 billion $HEXA B (+0,43%)

Nokia € 22 billion $NOKIA (+0,97%)

STMicroelectronics € 22 billion $STM (+0,81%)

Logitech € 12 billion $LOGN (+1,46%)

Sage Group € 12 billion $SGE (+1,51%)

>> Which ones are you invested in and how are they performing? Most of these European tech stocks can be found in the iShares MSCI Europe Information Technology - ETF, WKN: A2QBZ3

#halbleiter
#semiconductor
#techaktien
#europa
#software
#ki
#ai
#künstlicheinteligenz

$ASM (+2,74%) Does anyone know what role ASMI plays? Are they in competition with ASML? Do they both do the same thing? Maybe someone can shed some light on this. Thanks. 🙃