I would like to initiate a discussion on the occasion of the recently announced 500 billion dollar Stargate project in the USA.
Do you think it is possible for Europe to catch up with the existing technological backlog? Or is "Stargate" the final nail in the coffin? And which countries do you see at the forefront of the AI age in the future?
For me, these countries are on the winning side:
USA 🇺🇸 - The USA has been at the forefront of technology right from the start. OpenAI (ChatGPT), Alphabet $GOOGL (-2,28%) (Gemini), Meta $META (-1,11%) Microsoft $MSFT (-1,57%) .... The list of companies relevant to the industry is long. Nowhere else in the world is more invested in AI. "Stargate" will now increase this imbalance many times over
China 🇨🇳 - China acts independently of the West and yet is still a major player with companies such as Tencent $TCEHY (+2,81%) , Alibaba $BABA (+5,86%) , Huawei, Xiaomi $1810 (+2,88%) and Baidu $9888 (+1,94%) are ideally positioned. Chinese companies are fast and innovative. The gigantic subsidies from the Chinese government also play a decisive role in this context. Another advantage is that the Chinese are currently receiving energy from Russia virtually as a gift.
Japan 🇯🇵 - With SoftBank, Japan has $9984 (-1,64%) a real AI champion in its country. In Japan, NVIDIA and SoftBank $NVDA (-3,63%) and SoftBank are building a joint innovative AI infrastructure. The fact that SoftBank and OpenAI are to be the lead partners in the Stargate project and that Masayoshi Son (CEO of SoftBank) will chair the new company will benefit Japan. The huge assets that are being built up there will flow back into the home country in one way or another. The close cooperation with the government (+high subsidies), the leading position in robotics and the recent developments in the semiconductor industry should also be noted.
Singapore 🇸🇬 - Very small country, lots of money, very good government, very well-educated population, lots of expats, lots of foreign investment, very few logistical challenges as a city state...... So things are looking VERY good for Singapore.
UAE 🇦🇪 /Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦/Qatar 🇶🇦 - Rich Gulf states that will invest billions in AI projects abroad (e.g. UAE participation in "Stargate"). They will generate large returns on these investments, while at the same time investing in the digitalization of their own country, thereby bringing great prosperity to their relatively small populations. Although there is also a large expat community in the UAE, including in the field of AI, I think that the Gulf states will mainly benefit from their investment funds.
I am unsure about these countries unsure:
Canada 🇨🇦 - Canada is innovative and wealthy, but there are not really any relevant companies in the AI sector. In addition, the universities are middle class and they lose a lot of talent to their neighbor, the USA. However, the country has potential, also because it is very attractive for foreign specialists.
Taiwan 🇹🇼 - TSMC $2330 from Taiwan supplies the world with chips, including those urgently needed for AI, but the country's heavy dependence on a single company, which has recently been expanding abroad (especially Japan and the USA), poses a risk. The development of the conflict with China and the possible success of Rapidus from Japan and Samsung in the field of 2nm chips will also be decisive for Taiwan's future in the field of AI.
South Korea 🇰🇷 - Technological leader, politically unstable. Companies like Samsung $005930 and SK Hynix $000660 from South Korea are leaders in the field of AI. There is a great deal of expertise in the country and the government is also supporting the transformation. However, I am unsure about the excessive dependence on the chaebols (e.g. Samsung), which account for an unhealthily large proportion of economic output. The dysfunctionality of the rule of law due to corrupt politicians and courts, the recent very tense domestic political situation and the constant threat from neighboring North Korea should also be viewed critically.
India 🇮🇳 - The next few years will show whether India can become the new China. India is growing dynamically and, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, has a huge potential workforce, but it is still heavily dependent on foreign know-how. India is not as innovative as developed countries and has to deal with domestic challenges such as hunger, which could make investment in AI more difficult. Indian companies are very open to AI and are trying to adapt it quickly, but developing it is another matter.
The Netherlands 🇳🇱 - With ASML $ASML (-0,72%) the Netherlands is home to one of the most important companies when it comes to AI. Without ASML's machines, the particularly advanced chips required for AI could not be produced. This puts the Netherlands, with its small population, in a rather comfortable position. However, it is also heavily dependent on a single company, which is also increasingly being targeted by geopolitics, with the result that the USA regularly blackmails the Netherlands to dictate where it has to deliver these machines. Recently, there have also been developments that threaten ASML's monopoly.
Germany 🇩🇪 - Germany is good at AI research, but there is a lack of AI champions. Companies such as Siemens $SIE (-0,45%) are doing well in terms of industrial AI and SAP is also $SAP (-1,87%) is investing heavily in its own AI, but there is still no sign of a German export hit in the field of AI. There is also a massive lack of investment in AI infrastructure and politicians are blocking rather than promoting. There is a general lack of a national vision, a combination of strategic policy and large-scale private investment, as is the case in other countries. The EU is also more of an obstacle to new investments. The concept of joint ventures is also used less in this country, although this could help to pool knowledge and resources in order to make a difference for one's own country. So all is not lost, but a political reorientation and new entrepreneurial courage are needed to catch up, which is getting bigger every day.
France 🇫🇷 - The French are also innovative and have an AI star in their country with Mistral AI, but they have similar problems to the Germans. Politics at national and EU level and the lack of major investments and new infrastructure are paralyzing the country.
UK 🇬🇧 - With universities such as Oxford and Cambridge, the UK has been conducting top-level research for a long time, including in the field of AI. They are innovative with many expats from abroad, although recently less from continental Europe. Unfortunately, however, they do not have any notable tech companies to call their own. Two of the most innovative tech companies and British hopefuls, ARM $ARM (-3,76%)
and Graphcore, are now both owned by the aforementioned Japanese SoftBank Group, but this does not mean that the UK can no longer benefit from the positive development of these companies. Nevertheless, they are no longer British.
ConclusionIt will not be easy for Europe to catch up. The competitors are mostly fast, very financially strong, innovative and led by visionaries. We cannot compete with a fragmented capital market, slow decision-making processes and bureaucrats from Brussels. However, it is also clear that the potential is there. We (still) have many bright minds here, but without a fundamental change in policy, decisive reforms and some pioneering spirit, I believe it will be impossible to catch up. The window of opportunity is getting smaller.
How do you see it all? Do you disagree somewhere or are you missing an important country?
