Postos
1102025 - A year to forget if you look at the first quarter. While things were still looking positive until around mid-February, things have been going steadily downhill since the middle or end of February.
March 2025 was the worst single month in my portfolio since 2013, with price losses of almost 10%. The negative market trend in the US and a weak US dollar naturally hurt my portfolio particularly badly.
Monthly view:
- 14 positive surprises
- Three negative surprises
- Dividend increases
- Dividend decreases
- Overview of all DAX stocks
Link:
$ALV (-8,43%)
$MUV2 (-6,68%)
$RHM (-10,98%)
$MBG (-5,9%)
$SAP (-5,31%)
$BMW (-5,51%)
$AIR (-8,31%)
$VOW (-3,61%)
$DBK (-10%)
$CBK (-6,01%)
$SIE (-7,45%)
$P911 (-4,36%)
$DTE (-4,46%)
$IFX (-8,33%)
Hello everyone, as I've already read some interesting things here about the composition of portfolios, I'd like to briefly introduce mine. I am now 40 and the aim here is to build up assets over the long term without a specific target date. I am not dependent on dividends and can save around 1500-2000 euros a month. When building up the portfolio, I naturally made the typical beginner's mistakes such as "it's already fallen so much, it must go up soon" (e.g. $DBK (-10%) ) or with Corona Gehyptes (e.g. $BIKE (-4,89%) ) were not spared. In addition to the securities, I also own two practically paid-off properties (approx. €300,000). My current plan is to build up my etf positions in several tranches, in particular $VWCE (-5,52%) possibly with even less focus on the USA. I am now looking forward to your praise, criticism, suggestions and ideas for improvement!
Best regards
Martin
Bafin fines Deutsche Bank millions
The financial supervisory authority Bafin has $DBK (-10%) with a hefty fine totaling 23.05 million euros. This fine stems from several violations committed by the bank in the sale of derivatives, which disregarded the organizational obligations of the Securities Trading Act. Postbank was particularly caught in the crossfire as it was accused of failing to comply with the recording requirements for investment advice. In addition, it repeatedly ignored the requirements for account switching assistance. Bafin criticized Deutsche Bank's slow response to violations in the sale of currency derivatives in Spain and found that Postbank had not taken effective measures to properly record telephone consultations after the end of the Covid-19 exemptions. Despite these challenges, the Deutsche Bank share performed well in Wednesday trading and rose by 10.88 percent to 21.47 euros.
Joko & Klaas extend contract with ProSiebenSat.1
In an exciting twist, popular entertainers Joko and Klaas have extended their exclusive contract with ProSiebenSat.1 $PSM (-1,62%) for another five years. This news was recently announced by the broadcasting family after the industry service dwdl.de reported on the extension. The duo, who have been delighting viewers since 2011, already have exciting new projects in the pipeline, including a live show entitled "Ein sehr gutes Quiz (mit hoher Gewinnsumme)", which will premiere on March 22. Joko and Klaas, who have celebrated great success with their formats such as "Wer stiehlt mir die Show?" and "Late Night Berlin", expressed their optimism about the upcoming collaboration. ProSieben boss Hannes Hiller described the contract extension as one of the best news stories of the year and promised viewers that they can expect many surprises in the future. In the meantime, ProSiebenSat.1 shares were trading 5.03 percent higher at EUR 6.06 at times.
Sources:
The profit forecasts for the current financial year have risen for 21 of the 40 DAX companies.
According to research by Handelsblatt, analysts have raised their profit estimates for these 7 of the 40 DAX companies by at least five percent in the last three months.
Handelsblatt sheds light on the prospects of these seven companies and their shares with a view to their prospects: the development of earnings this year, the resulting changes in valuation - and how analysts are positioning themselves.
Below is a brief overview, details with further information can be found at "Handelsblatt"
$ENR (-9,65%) The earnings forecasts for Siemens Energy shares are rising most rapidly
+ 3
The euro has been weakening since September 2024 and is approaching parity with the dollar - the currency ratio would then be one to one. The dollar is currently still worth around 1.04 euros, up seven cents in the fall.
German companies with strong business in the dollar area can benefit from this development in several ways.
"The strength of the dollar is good news for exporting German companies," comment the analysts at Baader Bank. This is because their products are comparatively cheaper in the USA.
A weak euro makes exports cheaper, making European products and services cheaper and more competitive in the dollar area and thus in large parts of America and Asia. Import duties in the USA would make products more expensive again - but in the end, the two effects could almost balance each other out.
For example, the medical technology group Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-5,55%) is hardly worried about the threat of import duties in the USA. The company shares the fear of a global trade war. However, the company expects that the headwind from tariffs and the tailwind from the stronger dollar will largely balance each other out, says CFO Jochen Schmitz.
The tailwind from the strong dollar could remain with companies for a long time to come. "The euro will become a really weak currency. It should quickly fall below parity with the dollar and be at 0.95 euros per dollar quite quickly," expects the well-known fund manager Jens Ehrhardt, founder and CEO of DJE Kapital.
The European Central Bank (ECB) expects the strength of the dollar to ease the burden on exporting companies in the event of possible import tariffs in the USA. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch says: "The euro would have to be brought to parity in order to essentially compensate for a tariff of ten percent."
The many companies that produce locally in the USA and sell their goods there also benefit from a strong dollar. This is because the effect on the balance sheet is even stronger as soon as companies convert their earnings generated in the dollar zone into their home currency. For every dollar earned, there are currently seven euro cents more than in the fall.
Companies are already feeling the effects. For example, Infineon $IFX (-8,33%) raised its forecast for the current financial year a few days ago. Previously, the Munich-based semiconductor manufacturer had assumed a slight decline in turnover. The DAX-listed company now expects stable to slightly increasing revenue in 2024.
One reason is the strength of the dollar. Infineon is now assuming a euro-dollar exchange rate of 1.05 euros this year - after previously assuming 1.10 euros. "This adjustment and the better exchange rate in the first quarter increase our revenue expectations by around 450 million euros," calculates Group CEO Jochen Hanebeck.
The estimates show: The biggest currency beneficiaries of a weaker euro are highly globalized companies with strong business in the dollar area. In addition to Infineon, these include $BAYN (-6,12%) Bayer with its strong US business and the DAX heavyweight Airbus $AIR (-8,31%). The European joint venture mainly builds aircraft in Germany and France, but they are sold worldwide at dollar prices.
Rheinmetall $RHM (-10,98%) also benefits: Armaments are usually invoiced in dollars, but the Düsseldorf-based group reports them in euros, which results in higher revenues from the conversion alone.
There are also profiteers in the financial sector. Deutsche Bank $DBK (-10%) CFO James von Moltke hinted at the outlook for 2025: There is potential for higher Group revenues than the 32 billion euros targeted so far, he said. So far, the bank has been planning with an exchange rate of 1.10 dollars per euro - i.e. a euro that is more than five cents stronger than it is currently worth. However, as Deutsche Bank has more income in dollars than costs in dollars and does not hedge this currency risk, it benefits from a weak euro, according to Moltke.
The weak euro also helps the automotive industry. Many luxury vehicles are produced in Germany, but sold worldwide, especially in the USA. Porsche $P911 (-4,36%) sells every fourth car there - but does not produce a single one.
"This will have a positive impact of several hundred million euros on Porsche's balance sheet," says a Frankfurt stock trader with a view to this year's results. However, US tariffs on imports of European cars could offset this positive effect.
Source & graphic: Handelsblatt
DAX reaches new all-time high again 🇩🇪📈💶👑. The left, trade unions and Wahra Sagenknecht would say that the stock market is a casino and a game of chance. Some people just always want to be wrong. Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 Which German shares do you have and how have they performed? #dax
#dax40
$LYY7 (-5,8%)
$SIE (-7,45%)
$ALV (-8,43%)
$SAP (-5,31%)
$VOW (-3,61%)
$BMW (-5,51%)
$P911 (-4,36%)
$RHM (-10,98%)
$ENR (-9,65%)
$AIR (-8,31%)
$DTE (-4,46%)
$DBK (-10%)
$DHL (-6,85%)
$CBK (-6,01%)
$MBG (-5,9%)
$PAH3 (-3,65%)
The $DBK (-10%) achieved a net profit of 605 million euros in the fourth quarter, which is well below expectations. The main reason for this is increased costs due to the Group's restructuring.
Increased provisions for bad loans also had a negative impact on the result.
These increased due to the weak German economy and problems in the US real estate market.
Despite an 11% increase in investment banking income in the third quarter, these challenges remain.
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