Brazil's oil giant is investing in the revitalization of the Campos Basin and is planning a similar strategy for Santos, where the pre-salt mega fields are located.
Petrobras $PETR3 (+1,2%)
$PETR4 (+0,17%)which alone or in joint ventures is responsible for almost 90% of Brazil's oil and gas production, is managing volatile commodity prices while pursuing strategies to secure long-term production. The company is closely monitoring the global market turbulence triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariff war, which has recently exacerbated oil price fluctuations. On Friday (11th), Brent crude closed at $64 per barrel, up 1.96% from the previous day, but still down 13.66% from April 2, the so-called "Liberation Day".
Since the introduction of the tariffs, Petrobras has lost R$ 63.2 billion in market capitalization, making it the hardest hit Brazilian company. Despite the volatility, the company has refrained from lowering diesel and gasoline prices, even though the Brent price is falling. "Crises are not the exception - they are the rule. We only experience a few moments of calm in between," said Sylvia Anjos, Petrobras' Chief Upstream Officer, at a recent event.
Last week, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil forecast for the end of 2025 to $66 a barrel, down $5 from its previous estimate. According to Ms. Anjos, Petrobras remains competitive under these conditions: "Our projects remain stable even at a price of only $28 per barrel".
While short-term efforts are focused on coping with price fluctuations, the medium and long-term goal is to ensure a level of production that maintains Brazil's position as a major oil exporter and minimizes dependence on imports.
To this end, Petrobras is prioritizing the replacement of reserves through two main avenues: the development of new reserves - particularly Foz do Amazonas in the Equatorial Marine, which is still awaiting environmental approval from IBAMA - and increasing production from existing fields, particularly in the Campos and Santos basins, Brazil's most productive offshore areas.
The Campos Basin, the cradle of Brazil's offshore oil industry since 1974, is being revitalized to increase daily production to 1 million barrels within a decade - a 32% increase from the average of 681,000 barrels in 2024, equivalent to 20.3% of national production.
In 2010, the basin produced an average of 1.75 million barrels per day, equivalent to 85.5% of Brazil's total oil production.
The younger Santos Basin, which contains Brazil's huge pre-salt reserves, was commissioned in 2009 and is approaching its production peak. In 2024, it produced 2.6 million barrels per day - 77% of total national production. The most important fields include Tupi and Búzios.
Tupi, which is operated by Petrobras in partnership with Shell and Petrogal, produced around 780,000 barrels per day last year. Búzios, a joint venture with the Chinese CNOOC, CNODC and the Brazilian PPSA, produced an average of 639,000 barrels per day.
The discovery of pre-salt reserves in 2006 prompted Petrobras to redirect its financial, technological and human resources to these new areas and neglect Campos. When production in the mature basin declined, Petrobras re-evaluated the economics and decided to invest again in increasing production in Campos.
"Production in Campos was declining faster than it should have because the previous efforts to maintain production levels were not enough. What we are doing now is postponing the end of production there," said Anjos.
She pointed out that Campos had peaked in 2009, which "gave the false impression that no further action was needed". Petrobras is now applying the lessons from Campos to Tupi and trying to delay its decline.
The development of the Campos basin itself was a response to past global oil shocks in 1973 and 1979, when Brazil was highly dependent on imports and rising global prices forced the country to look for domestic alternatives. In 1974, Petrobras struck commercially viable oil in the Garoupa field, followed by Namorado and Enchova. At that time, Brazil's daily oil production was 164,300 barrels; by 2024, the country was producing 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
To replenish reserves and increase productivity, Petrobras and its partners are implementing a range of solutions. Key to this are technological advances such as platform upgrades, water and gas injection and "intelligent completion methods" that enable real-time production optimization.
The company is also using 4D seismic imaging to map the reservoir structures more accurately. With these tools and new production systems, Petrobras plans to drill 200 new wells in Campos by 2029.
The revitalization efforts, which are based on the principle of "every drop counts", gained momentum in 2023 with the commissioning of the Anita Garibaldi and Anna Nery FPSOs in the Marlim field, replacing nine older platforms. Petrobras is now inviting tenders for three more FPSOs for the Albacora, Barracuda-Caratinga and Marlim Sul-Marlim Leste fields.
These initiatives fall under the 2025-2029 business plan, which earmarks 77 billion dollars - or 70% of the company's total investment of 111 billion dollars - for exploration and production. This allocation underlines the central importance of upstream activities in Petrobras' business model.
Claudio Nunes, Head of Exploration and Production at the Brazilian Institute of Petroleum and Natural Gas (IBP), noted that the revitalization of mature fields complements new exploration. "A field starts to shrink with the first drop of oil, so reserves need to be continuously replaced," he said.
Rivaldo Moreira Neto, partner at infrastructure consultancy A&M Infra, argues that Campos still holds untapped potential and was shelved after 2006 in favor of pre-salt discoveries that promise quicker returns. "Pre-salt has a profile of 'drill, find, produce', which makes it easier for Petrobras to focus on Santos."
A source familiar with the early stages of Campos' revival said the targets were realistic, although supply chain issues could pose a challenge. "Production costs are critical. Some previous projects have been delayed due to a lack of suppliers with competitive prices. It all depends on the situation, including shipyard capacity at home and abroad."
According to the source, Petrobras' focus on new areas such as Foz do Amazonas and the Pelotas Basin is not in competition with revitalization efforts; the projects are complementary. The company is already considering a similar plan for the Santos Basin, particularly Tupi.
Plans for Tupi include a new platform, additional wells, an extended FPSO life and a robust seismic campaign to optimize reservoir management. However, the feasibility of these investments depends on the regulatory approval of the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) for an extension of Petrobras' production rights in this field.
"This is a field that clearly deserves Petrobras' full attention," said Mr. Loss. "Selling it now makes no sense. Productivity means revenue - and Tupi's productivity must be maintained.
