The war could give the $BTC (+3,28%)-price for reasons that go beyond simple safe-haven demand.

Consider, for example, a scenario that now seems at least plausible: a prolonged disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with rising energy prices and increasing pressure on the public finances of energy-importing countries. In such an environment, confidence in the reliability of the global financial infrastructure itself becomes a relevant variable.

2022 has shown that even the currency reserves of AAA-rated countries can be frozen overnight for political reasons. The structural characteristics of $BTC (+3,28%) - no sovereign issuer, no counterparty and settlement that works independently of the correspondent banking infrastructure - turn from theoretical advantages to practical ones precisely when this infrastructure comes under pressure.

Gold has always reacted to such developments, which is why the price has recently risen by 3.5 percent. Increasingly #bitcoin institutional investors are taking a similar view - this week's capital inflows provide clear evidence of this. The current conflict did not create the safe haven thesis of $BTC (+3,28%) but it has provided the clearest practical test so far in this market cycle.

$BITC (+0,27%)

I'm having a discussion with friends and would like to hear what you think.

I currently hold around 0.208 BTC. Some of it was bought over the years, but some of it also came as a gift from family (birthday, Christmas, etc.).

The total amount of money I have invested in Bitcoin is around €5,536.

If I do the simple math:

€5,536 / 0.208 BTC = about €26,600 per BTC.

For me, that honestly feels like my "real" entry price, because that's the money I actually put in myself.

But now comes the point where the discussion started.

I exchanged some altcoins for Bitcoin in November 2024, when the price was already relatively high. As a result, some people say that my average price should actually be much higher, in some cases closer to 70k, because this exchange practically counts as a new purchase.

Others say the same thing:

The Bitcoins I received as a gift shouldn't actually be included in the average because I didn't pay anything for them.

In the end - depending on how you do the math - I end up with completely different "entry prices".

Once around 26k,

sometimes significantly higher due to the trades,

or theoretically even lower if you look at the gifts differently.

So I'll just ask around:

How would you calculate your entry?

- Just your own invested money?

- Include every trade at the price at the time?

- Or are donated coins simply a bonus without an entry price?

I just realized that the "average entry" is much less clear than I always thought.

😂😆😂😆

$BTC (+3,28%)
$ETH (+3,24%)
$SOL (+3,16%)
$XRP (+0,75%)
$PEPE (+2,81%)
$ADA (+1,78%)
#crypto

$BTC (+3,28%) has remained remarkably stable despite the geopolitical escalation surrounding Iran. While oil prices and volatility have risen significantly and stock markets have come under pressure, Bitcoin has risen by around 7% since the start of the conflict and has stabilized above USD 70,000.

This is remarkable in that Bitcoin has historically often served as a source of liquidity for selling during geopolitical shocks at the weekend. This time the market developed differently.

One important reason lies in the market structure prior to the escalation. Over the past five months, it is estimated that large market participants ("whales") have seen net outflows of around 30 billion US dollars. As a result, many speculative exaggerations have already been flushed out of the market. Valuation and leverage indicators had normalized significantly even before the geopolitical risk increased again.

The capital flow data also confirms this development. After five weeks of ETF outflows totaling around four billion US dollars, investment products on digital assets recorded net inflows of over one billion US dollars again in the first five days of March alone. Investors are therefore not retreating, but are increasing their allocation despite the uncertainty.

However, the macroeconomic environment remains difficult. Weaker labour market data in the US, rising energy prices and persistent inflationary pressure are limiting the US Federal Reserve's scope for rapid interest rate cuts. A combination of weaker growth and stubborn inflation is a difficult environment for traditional risk investments.

For #bitcoin however, it is precisely these factors that may become more relevant. Rising government debt, energy-driven inflation and the increasing politicization of the global financial system underscore characteristics of Bitcoin such as self-custody and independence from government issuers.

A phase of consolidation remains likely in the short term. A sustained breakout above USD 72,000 would be necessary to clearly brighten the technical picture. Nevertheless, the current market phase shows that Bitcoin is increasingly being perceived less as a fragile risk asset and more as a macroeconomic hedging instrument. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

With the CoinShares Bitcoin ETP $BITC (+0,27%) you can invest in Bitcoin.

Now that $BTC (+3,28%) and altcoins have been bullish about the conflict in the Middle East and are now showing a breakout from the downtrend, one should zoom out and visualize the structure of the trend.

LILA - The price is still in a falling trend channel

YELLOW - Continuation pattern (bearish wedge)

WHITE - The most recent price movement suggests a fake-out like in mid-January

GREEN - The first bottom was formed at $60K

RED - A crucial area that could provide support and will be reached before the end of the downtrend

Projection

A V-shaped recovery, which is currently being hinted at, is extremely rare to see at the end of a bear market.

It is likely that the $60K mark will be broken and the bottom will be found in the $50K area - this would correspond to a classic 5-stage downtrend.

However, if another continuation pattern becomes visible in this area, it would go to the $38K area...

What is your strategy? Buy the dip, blunt savings plan or wait for a bottom?

In the face of escalating tensions in the Middle East, the price of oil rose by 10% and $GOLD gained 3.5%, confirming its traditional role as a safe haven - but Bitcoin is defying expectations, remaining stable and even attracting inflows. Investors appear to be using the correction as both an entry point and a hedge, pointing to a potentially growing role for cryptocurrencies in times of geopolitical uncertainty and volatile markets.

Geopolitics drives oil and gold higher

Geopolitics once again dominated the markets over the weekend after President #trump used Saturday to further escalate tensions. The withdrawal of British embassy staff from Iran had already indicated rising risks, so markets were not completely unprepared. The crucial question is not only whether the #iran can be contained, but also how quickly potential disruptions could spread. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes. Withdrawals by insurers and visible congestion of tankers indicate that the situation is already operationally relevant and not just rhetorical. Drone activity and signals of support from Hezbollah and the Houthi militia increase the likelihood that the conflict will escalate. The 10% rise in the oil price reflects this fragility, while gold is fulfilling its traditional role as a safe haven with a gain of 3.5%.

Bitcoin defies uncertainty - inflows return

Even more remarkable is the reaction of Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin, as the only liquid asset that is also traded at the weekend, has usually reacted negatively in phases of forced risk reduction. This time, however, the cryptocurrency remained stable and even rose despite increasing uncertainty. The lack of significant liquidations despite rising yields and geopolitical tensions suggests that positioning is more balanced compared to previous episodes. Over the past five months, major market participants have turned over around USD 30 billion and technical and fundamental lows have already been reached. Last week, inflows returned: USD 1 billion flowed in after USD 4 billion had previously flowed out over five weeks, and a further USD 500 million was added on Monday alone. This suggests that investors see the correction as both an entry opportunity and a hedge in the current geopolitical situation.

The chart shows the intraday price development of $BTC (+3,28%) from the start of the conflict at 6:15 GMT on February 28 to the current time, as well as the relative price performance of the Stoxx 600, illustrating the significant outperformance of Bitcoin since the outbreak of the conflict. The flat sections in the equity index reflect periods when exchanges were closed, highlighting the liquidity constraints of equities compared to continuously tradable Bitcoin.

Macroeconomics tighten financial conditions

The macroeconomic environment is making the situation even more difficult. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% month-on-month, above the expected 0.3%, while the core rate reached 0.8%, mainly driven by trade-related services. With energy prices now rising sharply, rate cut expectations are likely to be postponed further, tightening financial conditions compared to a few weeks ago. If energy-driven inflation delays monetary easing, traditional risk assets could come under pressure. However, if geopolitical tensions intensify and confidence in global financial and trade structures - particularly along critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz - erodes further, scarce and non-government assets such as Bitcoin could benefit in the medium term.

Via the CoinShares Bitcoin ETP $BITC (+0,27%) you can also invest in Bitcoin.