Kering

$MC (+1,23%) - Failed takeovers of LVMH

and activities of the children of Bernard

Arnault

Did you know the following:

In the late 90s, LVMH tried to take over Gucci, but CEO Domenico De Sole resisted.

He diluted the share price and gave employees a stake, weakening LVMH's control. Then Kering stepped in and secured Gucci.

He also tried Hermes:

In 2010, LVMH secretly acquired 17 percent of Hermès ($RMS (-0,8%) ), triggering a storm of indignation. Hermès fought back with legal disputes and accused LVMH of insider trading and share manipulation.

After years of conflict, LVMH agreed to sell its 23% stake in 2014, ending the intense rivalry.

Who will be the next takeover candidate?

Thanks to all the successful takeovers, LVMH now has an extensive portfolio of 75 brands, which can be seen in the picture.

LVMH is the largest luxury company in the world.

The Arnault family:

Bernard will probably keep the company in the family. As he has five children who are already integrated into the company, these are the potential successors:

1. Delphine

2. Antoine

3. Alexandre

4. Frederic

5. Jean

Delphine (49) is Executive VP of Louis Vuitton.

Delphine has been with LVMH since 2001 and is in charge of brand development and strategy. She plays an important role in the success of LV.

Antoine (47) is CEO of Berluti and Chairman of Loro Piana.

Antoine focuses on expanding LVMH's presence in luxury fashion and plays a role in brand communication and acquisitions.

Alexandre Arnault (32) is CEO of Tiffany & Co.

Alexandre revitalized Tiffany by targeting younger audiences and improving its digital presence. As a result, profits doubled within a year.

Frédéric Arnault (29) is CEO of LVMH Watches. After being CEO of Tag Heuer.

Jean Arnault (26) is Director of Product & Communications at Louis Vuitton Watches.

Finally, a few examples of LVMH's pricing power and price trends:

$MC (+1,23%)
$KER (+0,73%)
$RMS (-0,8%)
$MONC (+1,11%)
$BRBY (-1,13%)
$BOSS (-1,67%)

Analyst updates, 21.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BERNSTEIN RAISES TARGET FOR NVIDIA TO USD 175 (155) - 'OUTPERFORM' $NVDA (+0,66%)

- JPMORGAN RAISES TARGET FOR NVIDIA TO 170 (155) USD - 'OVERWEIGHT' $NVDA (+0,66%)

- EVERCORE ISI RAISES TARGET FOR NVIDIA TO 190 (189) USD - 'OUTPERFORM' $NVDA (+0,66%)

- JEFFERIES RAISES TARGET FOR SIXT STEMS TO EUR 110 (100) - 'BUY' $SIX2 (+0,32%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH RAISES RHEINMETALL TO 'BUY' (HOLD) - TARGET 700 (550) EUR $RHM (-0,53%)

- BARCLAYS RAISES TARGET FOR FRESENIUS SE TO EUR 40 (38) - 'OVERWEIGHT' $FRE (+1,27%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the target price for ALSTRIA OFFICE from EUR 3.40 to EUR 7.10. Hold. $AOX (-0,37%)

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for ESSILORLUXOTTICA from EUR 194 to EUR 200. Market-Perform. $EL (-0,38%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for NESTLE from CHF 87 to CHF 85. Hold. $NESN (-0,14%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for MEDIOS from EUR 23 to EUR 18. Buy. $ILM1 (-3,04%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for GRENKE from EUR 27.30 to EUR 18.30. Neutral. $GLJ (+0,06%)

- BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 260 to EUR 220. Market Perform. $KER (+0,73%)

- BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 795 to EUR 700. Outperform. $MC (+1,23%)

- BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 250 to DKK 215. Outperform. $VWS (-0,1%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for SMA SOLAR from EUR 19 to EUR 14. Hold. $S92 (-0,89%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for VERBIO from EUR 27 to EUR 22. Buy. $VBK (-0,82%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for PVA TEPLA from EUR 14.50 to EUR 12. Hold. $TPE (+1,27%)

- HSBC downgrades TARGET to Hold. Target price USD 138. $TGT (+0,48%)

- UBS lowers the price target for BAYER from EUR 30 to EUR 22. Neutral. $BAYN (+0,31%)

Analyst updates, 18.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- MORGAN STANLEY raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 212 to EUR 220. Overweight. $SIE (-0,04%)

- HSBC raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 660 to EUR 700. Buy. $RHM (-0,53%)

- HSBC raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 33.50 to EUR 34. Buy. $DTE (+0,96%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 275 to EUR 310. Buy. $ALV (-0,65%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 52 to EUR 57. Buy. $ENR (+2,16%)

- UBS upgrades AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from USD 338 to USD 375. $APD (+0,13%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 127 to CHF 138. Outperform. $SREN (-0,96%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 523 to EUR 551. Overweight. $MUV2 (-2,13%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for HANNOVER RÜCK from EUR 206 to EUR 217. Underweight. $HNR1 (-0,12%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- MORGAN STANLEY lowers the target price for BAYER from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Equal-Weight. $BAYN (+0,31%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the target price for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60.50 to EUR 59. Buy. $SHL (-0,21%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades KNAUS TABBERT to Hold. Target price EUR 15. $KTA (-2,11%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SGL CARBON from EUR 10.60 to EUR 9. Buy. $SGL (-0,93%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for PVA TEPLA from EUR 18 to EUR 14.50. Hold. $TPE (+1,27%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 340 to EUR 320. Buy. $KER (+0,73%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades BECHTLE to Neutral. Target price 37 EUR. $BC8 (-0,6%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 27 to EUR 23. Equal-Weight. $UTDI (+0%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for 1&1 from EUR 19 to EUR 17. Equal-Weight. $1U1 (+0,67%)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for AIR LIQUIDE from EUR 195 to EUR 190. Buy. $AI (+0,12%)

- HSBC downgrades PORSCHE SE from Hold to Reduce and lowers target price from EUR 36 to EUR 26. $PAH3 (-1,29%)

Week in review 26.10.

New 52-week highs or all-time highs: Gold, Silver, Booz Allen Hamilton, Boyd Gaming, Carvana, Endeavour Silver, GE Vernova, Iron Mountain, L3Harris, Philip Morris, Reddit, SAP, Sea Ltd, Teledyne Netflix, Nvidia, Microstrategy, Palantir PayPal, SoFi, Wells Fargo, Welltower, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts

Palantir (+170%) points to 2024 Vistra (+231%) and Nvidia (+202%) the third-best performer in the S&P 500

Tesla +20% after good quarterly figures, best trading day in 11 years, cheaper new model coming in H1/2025, +9% since the beginning of the year

New Apple MacBooks with M4, Mac mini and iMac will be presented next Monday, Apple shares +26% since the beginning of the year

McDonald's E.coli - bacteria in burger meat, one dead and several injured, shares fall 8%, +1% since the beginning of the year

SAP with good quarterly figures, +61% since the beginning of the year

Deutsche Bank with good quarterly figures, +26% since the beginning of the year

Mercedes with poor quarterly figures due to weak business in China, -9% since the beginning of the year

Microsoft-shareholders want to vote on Bitcoin purchase for the balance sheet at the Annual General Meeting in December, Bitcoin +59% since the beginning of the year

Qualcomm and ARM are in a license dispute over the Nuvia takeover, ARM +112% since the beginning of the year, Qualcomm +23% since the beginning of the year

Lockheed Martin with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year

L3Harris with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year

RTX (Raytheon) with good quarterly figures, sales and profit forecasts raised, +48% since the beginning of the year

UPS with good quarterly figures, -9% since the beginning of the year

Texas Instruments with good quarterly figures, +25% since the beginning of the year

Coca Cola with good quarterly figures, +15% since the beginning of the year

IBM with strong profit growth but disappointed sales, +36% since the beginning of the year

Munich RE Profit warning due to major losses, +24% since the beginning of the year

Starbucks has suspended its forecast for the coming financial year as new CEO Brian Niccol seeks to restructure the company but increases dividend, +5% year-to-date

Kering with profit warning as Gucci weakens in China, -40% since the beginning of the year

Enphase Energy with poor figures, share falls -12%, -37% since the beginning of the year

Traffic light government decides exit tax on ETF assets from €500,000, savings and independent investing are penalized even more, prosperity and freedom are made more difficult and hindered

Loopholes in the rent control for furnished apartments remain

" If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like & subscribe here.

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#steuern
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Update analyst assessments:

$TSLA (+0,14%) | RBC raises target price for TESLA from USD 236 to USD 249. Outperform.

$KO (+0,15%) | JPMORGAN lowers the price target for COCA-COLA from USD 78 to USD 75. Overweight.

$TMUS (+1,52%) | UBS raises the price target for T-MOBILE US from USD 210 to USD 255. Buy.

$T (+0,17%) | UBS raises the price target for AT&T from USD 24 to USD 25. Buy.

$AOF (-1,48%) | WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ATOSS SOFTWARE from EUR 142 to EUR 144. Buy.

$UA (-0,2%) | UBS raises the price target for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 11 to USD 12. Buy.

$JST (+0,22%) | WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for JOST WERKE from EUR 62 to EUR 77. Buy

$IBM (+0,3%) | UBS raises the price target for IBM from USD 145 to USD 150. Sell.

$FTK (-0,25%) | HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB downgrades FLATEXDEGIRO from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 16 to EUR 15.

$ROG (+1,18%) | DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ROCHE from CHF 235 to CHF 250. Sell.

$EBAY (+0,13%) | UBS raises the price target for EBAY from USD 59 to USD 72. Neutral.

$KER (+0,73%) | RBC lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 280 to EUR 230. Sector-Perform.

Kering Q3 2024 $KER (+0,73%)

Financial performance:

Kering's financial performance in Q3 2024 recorded a decline, with Group sales falling by 15% and by 16% on a like-for-like basis to €3.8 billion. This decline was impacted by negative currency effects of 1% and positive economies of scale of 2% due to the consolidation of Creed. The unfavorable market conditions in the luxury segment had a significant impact on Kering's short-term performance, particularly on Gucci, whose sales fell by 26%.

Balance sheet analysis:

However, the focus on cost control and selective investments indicates a strategic approach to maintain financial stability in times of declining sales.

Income statement:

The income statement shows a challenging quarter for Kering, with significant sales declines at the main brands. Gucci sales fell by 26%, Saint Laurent by 13% and the other houses by 15%. Bottega Veneta was a positive bright spot with a 4% increase in sales.

Cash flow analysis:

However, the focus on tightening cost control and selective investments suggests that Kering is striving to maintain cash flow during this decline in sales.

Key performance indicators and profitability:

Expected EBIT for the full year 2024 of approximately €2.5 billion indicates that Kering is focused on profitability despite the sales challenges.

Segment analysis:

• Gucci: Sales fell by 26%, strongly influenced by market conditions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Saint Laurent: Sales fell by 13%, with wholesale recording a decline of 20%.
• Bottega Veneta: Sales increased 4%, driven by a strong performance in leather goods and growth in North America and Western Europe.
• Kering Eyewear and Corporate: Sales increased by 32%, supported by the contribution from Creed.

Competitive analysis:

Kering faces significant challenges in the luxury market as unfavorable macroeconomic conditions affect consumer behavior and in-store footfall. The company is focusing on strategic initiatives to increase brand relevance and sales quality.

Forecasts and management commentary:

Management is focused on implementing a transformation strategy, particularly at Gucci, to return to sustainable growth. The expected EBIT for the full year 2024 is around EUR 2.5 billion, reflecting the efforts to control costs and optimize investments.

Risks and opportunities:

Risks include ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, which could continue to weigh on demand in the luxury segment. Opportunities arise from strategic brand enhancement and product innovation, as can be seen in the successful leather goods range and the new fragrance collection from Bottega Veneta.

Summary and strategic implications:

Kering is navigating through a challenging environment in the luxury market with declining sales at key brands. The company's strategic focus on cost control, brand enhancement and product innovation aims to stabilize financial performance and position itself for future growth. Despite the short-term challenges, the focus on sustainable growth and strategic investment points to the potential for long-term recovery and competitiveness in the luxury segment. Having exited the position at a loss, I am now back in and looking closely at how they intend to change. Something for the more courageous shareholders or the stupid ones

Positive statements:

• Bottega Veneta sales increased by 4% and by 5% on a like-for-like basis, supported by a strong performance in leather goods and double-digit growth in North America and Western Europe.
• Sales in the Kering Eyewear and Corporate segment increased by 32% and by 4% on a like-for-like basis, supported by a significant contribution from Creed.
• Balenciaga's leather goods lines performed very well and Alexander McQueen's new collections were enthusiastically received.
• Brioni focused on steady growth and Kering's jewelry houses showed resilience in challenging market conditions.
• The Group is methodically implementing its strategy with the aim of building healthy and sustainable sales growth and expects EBIT of around €2.5 billion for the 2024 financial year.

Negative statements:

• Group sales in the third quarter of 2024 decreased by 15% and by 16% on a comparable basis, with a negative currency effect of 1% and a positive scale effect of 2% due to the consolidation of Creed.
• Gucci's sales fell by 26% and by 25% on a comparable basis, strongly influenced by market conditions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Yves Saint Laurent sales decreased by 13% and by 12% on a like-for-like basis, while wholesale sales decreased by 20% on a like-for-like basis.
• Sales in the directly operated retail network fell by 17% on a like-for-like basis, negatively impacted by lower footfall, particularly in the Asia Pacific region and Japan.
• Wholesale sales in the other stores fell by 28% on a like-for-like basis, reflecting the difficult market conditions.

17.10.2024

Adidas weak + Airbus cuts up to 2,500 jobs in defense and aerospace division + LVMH under pressure after figures + Nestle lowers annual targets + Nokia sees turning point coming

For the share of Adidas $ADS (-0,1%) fell by 6.3 percent after the sporting goods manufacturer raised its forecast the previous evening. The stock market criticized the fact that the forecast was now where the consensus of analysts had already seen it beforehand - and therefore did not provide a positive surprise. Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that operating costs had risen by around 5 percent in the third quarter compared to a stable first half of the year. In addition, luxury goods manufacturer LVMH reported that the short-term outlook remains cautious, as it is unclear whether demand in China has bottomed out and whether growth in the US and Europe is accelerating.

Airbus $AIR (-0,04%) is struggling with huge losses in the satellite business and therefore wants to cut up to 2,500 jobs in its defense and aerospace division. The aerospace company announced on Wednesday that the cuts would take place by mid-2026. The Airbus division employs almost 35,000 people in Germany and other European countries. The locations affected are to be clarified at the end of the year following talks with the trade unions and works councils. Airbus mainly builds satellites in Immenstaad on Lake Constance, in Toulouse, in London and in Munich.

Disappointing quarterly figures from LVMH $MC (+1,23%) put the entire sector under pressure on Wednesday. Luxury and consumer goods stocks fell significantly. LVMH fell by 5.1 percent to 593.70 euros. Also Kering $KER (+0,73%) and numerous other stocks in the sector also lost ground. Negative analyst opinions also played a role for the French cosmetics manufacturer. LVMH continued its disappointing performance in the current year with these losses. The downward trend since the spring is intact, after the share marked new lows for the year and wiped out the recovery attempts of the past week. The French luxury goods group continues to struggle with subdued demand. In the third quarter, turnover fell by three percent, excluding currency effects and acquisitions and disposals of parts of the company. Analysts had expected slight growth of 0.9 percent on average. Overall, turnover fell by 4.4 percent to 19.08 billion euros. This is also less than experts had expected. The analysts at Goldman Sachs therefore spoke of a disappointment, although expectations before the report had already been cautious. The fashion and leather goods segment in particular had suffered from weak demand from China, but the spirits segment had also missed estimates. The economic environment for luxury goods remains difficult and the next six months are unlikely to be easy. L'Oreal $OR (+0,96%) recently lost 3.4 percent to 363.70 euros after JPMorgan downgraded the shares from "Neutral" to "Underweight" and lowered the price target from 390 to 325 euros.

The food group Nestle has lowered its forecasts for the current year following a disappointing quarter. Growth in the first nine months was too low to maintain the previous targets. The new CEO Laurent Freixe has therefore cut expectations for 2024 and the company now expects growth of around two percent. Former CEO Mark Schneider had recently emphasized that Nestle would grow organically by "over 3 percent" for the year as a whole, but this seems too optimistic. Laurent Freixe, who took over as CEO in August after a long career at the food multinational, has now rejected these false hopes and lowered his expectations for the year as a whole.

The network equipment supplier Nokia $NOKIA (-0,59%) is gradually seeing the turning point in its weak markets. "Net sales are recovering more slowly than we expected, but we are compensating for this in part with an improved gross margin and cost savings," said Group CEO Pekka Lundmark in a statement on Thursday. Signs of recovery are already visible in business with fixed-line and IP products. The market for mobile networks, on the other hand, is proving more difficult. In the third quarter, Nokia therefore fell short of analysts' expectations: in the three months to the end of September, net revenue slipped by eight percent year-on-year to 4.3 billion euros. Industry experts had expected more on average.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

07:30 TSMC quarterly figures

12:30 KeyCorp quarterly figures

13:00 Travelers Cos quarterly figures

22:00 Netflix quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 ABB | Nordea | Nokia | Essilor-Luxottica

07:00 Sartorius quarterly figures | Hella sales 3Q

07:15 Nestle 9 months sales

09:00 Pernod-Ricard 1Q sales

09:00 Sartorius PK

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Manufacturing orders on hand and backlog August
• 08:00 CH: Trade Balance
• 11:00 EU: Trade balance sb August FORECAST: n/a previous: +15.5 bn euro
• 11:00 EU: Consumer prices September Eurozone FORECAST: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.2% yoy CORE RATE FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.3% yoy/+2.8% yoy
• 14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate FORECAST: 3.25% previously: 3.50%
• 14:30 US: Retail Sales September PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 260,000 Previous: 258,000
• 14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed Index October FORECAST: 3.0 PREVIOUS: 1.7
• 14:45 EU: ECB, PK after Governing Council meeting
• 15:15 US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization September Industrial Production PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy previous: +0.8% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 77.8% previous: 78.0%
• 16:00 US: Inventories August PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy

Podcast episode 57 "Buy High. Sell Low."

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00:00:00 Vistra Energy, Constellation Energy, Uranium Energy, Uranium ETFs $VST (+1,94%)
$STZ (+0,52%)
$UEC (+0,71%)

00:37:20 Alibaba, China stocks $9618 (-1,3%)
$700 (+1,03%)
$80700
$1211 (+0,44%)

01:12:00 Exxon, Shell, Diamondback Energy, oil ETFs $SHEL (+0,91%)
$GB00B03MM408
$RDS.A

01:32:00 LVMH, Hermès $MC (+1,23%)
$9988 (-0,72%)
$BABA (-0,31%)

01:42:00 Kering $KER (+0,73%)

01:45:00 Dior, Prada, luxury ETF $CDI (+0,42%)
$1913 (-2,32%)
$AMUN (-1,04%)

01:48:00 Rising social security contributions in 2025 #ampel#money

Spotify
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https://open.spotify.com/episode/44odhfXKc9Do4d6OE6nY3M?si=aXivvFZdSWmn5rOiEk9ElQ

YouTube
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$GOOGL (+0,38%)

https://youtu.be/HBb1kKaeh5A

Apple Podcast $AAPL (+0,24%)
#podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-57-alibaba-lvmh-shell-vistra-exxon-hermes-diamondback/id1695869891?i=1000670846325

$KER (+0,73%) So with a P/E ratio of 10, things are starting to get interesting, maybe I'll go for it.

First small tranche in the luxury sector 👜👠