#momentum Strategy week 33

Hello my dears,

stocks mentioned so far were

$MP (+0,63%)
$NBIS (-5,12%)
$LMND (+8,9%)
$AAPL (+1,33%)
$BMNR (-2,66%)

$ELF (+5,21%)
$9868 (+0,09%)
$XPEV (+0,15%)
$UCG (-0,15%)
$PRY (-0,47%)

$G1A (-4,55%)
$LOTB (-1,13%) +10% $ETH (+0,56%)
$NB (+6,17%)
$VLA (+18,24%)

$HOT (-1,73%) +13%

My shares would be

$MU (-3,14%) +17%. $GILT (-0,64%) +20%. $APP (-4,74%) +17%

The shares are for identification purposes only.

And does not constitute a buy recommendation.

An analysis and evaluation of the multiples should definitely be carried out here.

You are also welcome to share your results with us.

I look forward to hearing more about your performers.

The regulatory hurdles can be overcome. The market assessment should focus more on the operational execution of the integration. This offers opportunities for investors.

Article from FuW, supplemented by own commentary at the end.

The price targets for $UBSG (-0,22%) drift far apart. The Analysten kommen auf keinen gemeinsamen Nennerhow the major Swiss bank can be reasonably valued. The pessimists see lows of close to CHF 20, while the optimists expect almost double that. This is mainly due to the differing expectations regarding the bank's future capital requirements.

Also im Aktienkurs spiegelt sich diese Unsicherheit. And this has been the case for April des letzten Jahres. The Federal Council then presented its regulatory plans to the public for the first time. A concrete figure followed in June of this year: 26 Mrd. $, so viel Kapital soll UBS aufbauen, to become crisis-proof. The proposal still has to go through parliament. There will be no final clarity until 2028.

Convincing implementation strength

The market is currently pricing in a high probability of a negative outcome on the regulatory front. This is indicated by the current valuation with a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of around 1.1. Compared to the closest comparable value, the valuation discount is more than 50%: The major US bank Morgan Stanley ($MS (+0,08%) ) is trading at a P/B ratio of over 2.3. In Europe, the most profitable major banks such as Nordea ($NDA FI (+0,96%) ), UniCredit ($UCG (-0,15%) ) and Intesa Sanpaolo ($ISP (+0,83%) ) are trading at 1.5, 1.4 and 1.3 respectively.

The uncertainty discount for UBS is too large. The integration of Credit Suisse is on track and value is being released on an ongoing basis. The progress already made is still not being sufficiently rewarded by the market. So far, management has been able to keep or exceed its promises. The strength of implementation is convincing. Cost synergies are being realized faster than planned, the Non-Core and Legacy unit is being efficiently wound down and the core businesses, such as Global Wealth Management, are flourishing.

For the courageous investor, the undervaluation is an opportunity. It opens up an attractive entry point, especially if you put the current share price in relation to the expected earnings per share for the future, before a Neubewertung nach Abschluss der Integration follows. This should be achieved by the end of 2026.

Titan is in the making

The UBS share now offers investors an asymmetrical risk/reward profile: the upside potential if the integration succeeds appears to be significantly greater than the downside risk. In terms of regulation, the worst-case scenario is known. Things can only get better for the big bank in the political process.

While waiting for clarification on the regulatory issue, the market should focus on the operational execution of the integration. UBS is forging a global champion - a titan is in the making. The bank's next quarterly reports will provide important clues on profitability and net new money. How it weiterhin Aktionärswert schaffen wants, UBS could communicate.

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Own opinion:

I hold $UBSG (-0,22%) mainly because of the solid dividend policy, which is targeted in the medium term, and the general confidence in the Swiss financial center. There is enough time until 2028 not only to digest the regulatory requirements, but also to support them politically. In my opinion, the market is currently underestimating how much scope there is for strategic fine-tuning and targeted lobbying during this period.

As long as the integration continues as before in operational terms, I believe the potential for setbacks is limited - and investors' patience could pay off. In addition, I am in personal contact with a person who is involved in the integration and reports more success than failure. If the spin-off of the small loan business (consumer credit) is also successful, this will also free up short-term capital.

I hold - 674 shares at an average price of CHF 14.01.

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📊 $UCG (-0,15%) Q1 2025 business figures - summary

🟢 Strong result:

* Net profit:

2.77 billion euros

➤ Significant increase of 8% compared to the previous year

➤ Exceeds analysts' expectations** (Ø: € 2.36 billion)

* Return on equity (RoTE):

22 %

➤ Leading in the European banking sector

📈 Earnings performance:

* Total income:

Driven by:

* +8.2% higher fee income

* Strong trading business

* Slight decline in net interest income (as expected)

💰 Cost control:

* Efficient cost structure ensures further improvement in operating margin

---

🔮 Outlook for the full year 2025 (revised upwards):

* Annual profit forecast:

> Over € 9.3 billion expected

> (previous forecast: at the previous year's level of € 8.6 billion)

* Total income 2025:

➤ Expected at approx. € 23.5 billion

* Distribution to shareholders:

➤ Further dividends and share buy-backs announced

---

🧩 Strategic developments:

* Possible takeovers:

* UniCredit continues to examine mergers, e.g. with Banco BPM

* Focus on investments in Generali and Commerzbank

* CEO Andrea Orcel emphasizes selective approach ("only value-enhancing deals")

* Digitalization:

* New 10-year partnership with Google Cloud to modernize IT infrastructure

$UCG (-0,15%)

Dear fellow investors!

I received my dividend from UC yesterday and today it was canceled again. Is this also the case for you or is Flatex on a lonely path again?

Addendum: According to Flatex support, there was a problem with the withholding tax booking - so the dividend will be transferred again next week.

Bundeskartellamt gives Unicredit the green light for Commerzbank investment

The German Federal Cartel Office has given Unicredit $UCG (-0,15%) a stake of up to 29.99 percent in Commerzbank. $CBK in Commerzbank. This decision is a turning point for the Milan-based bank, which wants to significantly expand its presence in the private and corporate customer business in Germany. The head of the Cartel Office, Andreas Mundt, stated that there are sufficient competitors to secure market access. Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel has been pursuing the takeover of Commerzbank for some time and already has 28 percent of the shares in her pocket, 9.5 percent of which is directly through shares and 18.5 percent through financial instruments. A 30 percent stake would oblige Unicredit to submit an official purchase offer. However, a final decision on the merger is not expected until next year, as Orcel is currently in talks with the new German government to clarify the next steps.

US investors optimistic despite customs unrest

In the USA, investors on Wall Street are optimistic at the start of the week in view of the latest tariff exemptions. The Dow Jones rose by 0.8 percent, while the technology-oriented Nasdaq gained 0.6 percent. Investors are confident that electronic devices such as smartphones and computers will be spared from the new tariffs. President Donald Trump has announced that he will soon publish details of the tariffs on semiconductors, which is causing excitement. These uncertainties are also reflected in the currency market, where the dollar index fell by 0.3%. Tech stocks in particular, such as Apple $AAPL (+1,33%) and HP $HPQ (-0,65%) in particular were able to benefit from the tariff exemptions and recorded positive price movements. Apple rose by 2.2 percent, indicating possible relief in prices for consumer goods.

Sources:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Unicredit-kommt-Ubernahme-von-Commerzbank-naeher-article25703117.html

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/US-Anleger-wagen-sich-aus-der-Deckung-article25704622.html

René Benko, the Austrian real estate investor & founder of Signa Holding, was arrested at his villa in Innsbruck on January 23, 2025. The Vienna-based Vienna-based economic and corruption prosecutor's office (WKStA) ordered the arrest after serious allegations were made against him. The main charges include fraud and insolvency offenses as well as the concealment of assets. In addition, there is a risk of concealment and the danger of committing further crimes, which led to his arrest.

The investigations against Benko, who is considered the de facto ruler of the Laura Private Foundation, have their origins in the insolvency of Signa Holding in November 2023, which is considered the largest bankruptcy in Austrian economic history. Benko is accused of deliberately hiding the assets of his companies in order to make it more difficult for creditors to enforce their claims. Specific allegations include:

• Balance sheet manipulation
• delay in filing for insolvency
• breach of trust & damage to creditors.

In particular, he is accused of systematically concealing losses and debts in the balance sheets of his companies, delaying the actual financial situation of Signa Holding and misusing company funds. It is also suspected that he deliberately shifted assets in order to avoid creditor claims.

The investigations extend across several countries.

In Austria the WKStA is investigating Benko for the aforementioned offenses. In Germany public prosecutor's offices in Munich & Berlin are involved, which are also investigating suspicions of money laundering, insolvency fraud and embezzlement. In Italy an investigation by the public prosecutor's office Trento on suspicion of the formation of a criminal organization & anti-mafia investigations. Also in Liechtenstein there are also investigations into money laundering and insolvency fraud. The investigations are based on telephone surveillance, message analysis and witness statements.

If Benko is found guilty, this could have serious consequences. The immediate paralysis of Signa Holding and the possible demise of the affiliated companies could be imminent, which could lead to an enormous burden for creditors and investors. Creditors could face claims amounting to 2.4 billion euros which could result in the break-up of Benko's real estate empire. Subsidiaries of his group are also threatened by possible insolvency. Furthermore, the investigations could lead to the confiscation of assets.

Benko is part of an extensive network of business partners and investors. The $RBI (-1,03%) is the largest creditor with 750 million eurosand has also $UCG (-0,15%) has granted significant loans to Signa. Other investors, such as the RAG Foundation, Fressnapf founder Torsten Toeller and Klaus-Michael Kühneare closely associated with Benko.

Political networks also play a role, as former politicians such as Joschka Fischer and Ole von Beust worked as lobbyists for Benko. In addition Alfred Gusenbauer consulting services to the value of 6 million euros were invoiced.

Insurance companies and banks involved in the Signa network also bear financial risks. A total of 46 insurance companies have done business with the Signa Group, with 9 insurers having invested more than 1% of their portfolio in Signa. The complex network and interdependencies mean considerable financial exposure for all partners involved.

January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:

"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"

The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.

As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.

Main topics:

• Rethinking growth: How can we tap into new sources of economic growth?

• How can companies respond to tech and geopolitical upheaval?

• What measures promote education, health & human capital?

• How can innovative partnerships & techs drive climate protection?

• How can cooperation be strengthened to overcome social divisions?

Participants from politics & business.

Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.

The key figures from politics are:

• 🇺🇸 Donald J. Trump(soon to be) President of the USA (via video link)
• 🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
• 🇨🇳 Ding XuexiangVice Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China
• 🇦🇷 Javier MileiPresident of Argentina
• 🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany
• 🇿🇦 Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
• 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain
• 🇨🇭 Karin Keller-Sutter, President of the Swiss Confederation 2025
• 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)

Technology sector

• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-1,91%) (Microsoft) - Satya Nadella, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $AMZN (+0,88%) (Amazon) - Andy Jassy, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $IBM (+2,15%) (IBM) - Arvind Krishna, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-1,91%) (Microsoft) - Bill Gates, co-founder and head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• 🌎 Cohere - Aidan Gomez, CEO
• 🌎 $META (-1,63%) (Meta) - Yann LeCun, AI scientist
• 🌎 OpenAI - Sam Altman, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $TSLA (-0,68%) (Tesla) - Elon Musk, CEO

Financial sector

• 🇪🇺 ECB - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
• 🇫🇷 ECB - Francois Villeroy de Galhau, President of the French Central Bank
• 🇩🇪 German Bundesbank- Joachim Nagel, President
• 🇺🇸 $BLK (BlackRock) - Martin Lück, Chief Investment Strategist
• 🇳🇱 $ING (+0,96%) (ING) - Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany

Banking sector

• 🇺🇸 $JPM (-1,02%) (JPMorgan Chase) - Jamie Dimon, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (-0,22%) (UBS) - Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (-0,22%) (UBS) - Colm Kelleher, President
• 🇩🇪 $DBK (-0,67%) (Deutsche Bank) - Christian Sewing, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $GS (-0,06%) (Goldman Sachs) - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO
• 🇺🇸 $BAC (-0,66%) (Bank of America) - Brian Moynihan, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $C (-1,18%) (Citigroup) - Jane Fraser, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-0,09%) (HSBC) - Mark Tucker, Group Chairman
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-0,09%) (HSBC) - Michael Roberts, CEO of HSBC Bank
• 🇺🇸 $MS (+0,08%) (Morgan Stanley) - Ted Pick, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $BARC (-0,23%) (Barclays) - C.S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO
• 🇫🇷 $GLE (-1,72%) (Société Générale) - Slawomir Krupa, CEO
• 🇮🇹 $UCG (-0,15%) (UniCredit) - Andrea Orcel, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $BG (+0,04%) (BAWAG Group) - Anja E. M. W. Schreiber, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $EBS (+0,55%) (Erste Group) - Andreas Treichl, CEO

Industry sector

• 🇩🇪 $BAYN (+3,14%) (Bayer) - Bill Anderson, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $NESNE (Nestlé) - Mark Schneider, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $ULVR (+1,37%) (Unilever) - Hein Schumacher, CEO
• 🇨🇳 SHEIN - Donald Tang, Vice Chairman
• 🇮🇳 ADANIENT (Adani Enterprises) - Gautam Adani, Chairman

... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for SAP from EUR 200 to EUR 230. Hold. $SAP (+0,18%)

- UBS upgrades HUGO BOSS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 41 to EUR 49. $BOSS (+1,24%)

- BOFA raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 55 to EUR 56. Neutral. $FRA (+0,07%)

- UBS raises target price for RICHEMONT from CHF 144 to CHF 150. Buy. $CFR (+1,32%)

- BOFA upgrades HOCHTIEF from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 112 to EUR 140. $HOT (-1,73%)

- JPMORGAN raises target price for FEDEX from USD 350 to USD 366. Overweight. $FDX (-0,36%)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for ROCHE from CHF 220 to CHF 230. Underweight. $ROG (+0,86%)

- UBS upgrades BMW from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 75 to EUR 83. $BMW (+0,98%)

- JEFFERIES raises target price for UNICREDIT from EUR 47 to EUR 49. Buy. $UCG (-0,15%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 61 to EUR 52. Buy. $DHER (-2,86%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VOLKSWAGEN VORZÜGE from EUR 110 to EUR 100. Overweight. $VOW (+0,5%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for PORSCHE SE from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Underweight. $PAH3 (+0,76%)

- UBS downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 72 to EUR 55. $MBG (+0,31%)

- EXANE BNP downgrades HYPOPORT from Outperform to Neutral. $HYQ (-0,69%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for IBU-TEC from EUR 12 to EUR 7.40. Hold. $IBU (+0,48%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades SYMRISE from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 122 to EUR 114. $SY1 (+0,16%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SANOFI from EUR 90 to EUR 85. Sell. $SAN (+0,72%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 56 to EUR 45. Underweight. $AFX (-0,07%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SARTORIUS from EUR 290 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SRT (-1,47%)