According to a new analysis by Binance Research, the upcoming US midterm elections could be an important catalyst for a new upward movement in risk assets such as Bitcoin ($BTC (+0,03%) ) and equities. Historical data shows that political uncertainty around elections often leads to increased volatility - followed by a sharp rebound in markets.

_________________________

📈 1. historical pattern after midterm elections

Binance analysts point to recurring market cycles:

• The S&P 500 averaged +19% returns in the 12 months following midterm elections.
• There has not been a negative year for the index in this period since 1939.
• Bitcoin ($BTC) even gained around +54% on average after midterm cycles.

💡 Interpretation:

As soon as political uncertainty about the composition of the US Congress disappears, investors often return more strongly to risk assets.

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📉 2. why midterm years are often weak at first

Historically, midterm years themselves are often volatile or weak:

• S&P 500 average drawdown: around -16 %
• Bitcoin average decline: about -56% during midterm years

This phase is often characterized by several factors:

• political uncertainty
• restrictive monetary policy
• macroeconomic risks

The situation often only stabilizes after the elections.

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⚙️ 3. Why the election is relevant for the crypto market

US politics plays a central role for:

• Crypto regulation
• stablecoin laws
• institutional capital flows

A clearer political environment after the elections could enable more institutional investment in cryptocurrencies, analysts say

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🧠 4 Classification for investors

The analysis indicates a possible scenario:

In the short term

• high volatility
• Political uncertainty

Medium term (after the elections)

• Possible risk-on phase
• Rising demand for equities and cryptocurrencies

However, this does not mean that a rally is guaranteed - geopolitical risks, inflation or interest rate policy may continue to play a major role.

_________________________

🧠 Conclusion

The data suggests that US midterm elections are historically often a turning point for markets.

If the pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin ($BTC (+0,03%) ) and equities could see a stronger rally after the election period.

The post-election period could therefore be particularly interesting for investors.

_________________________

🔗 Source

Ground News: Binance US midterms could spark Bitcoin and stock rallies

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Digital asset investment products saw inflows of USD 619 million last week, indicating that the initial market reaction to the Iran crisis is supportive for this asset class. Early optimism is particularly evident, with an impressive USD 1.44 billion flowing into these products in the first three days of the week. However, investor sentiment weakened noticeably later in the week, which is reflected in outflows totaling USD 829 million on Thursday and Friday, even though the published labour market data was significantly weaker than expected. This decline in inflows indicates that investors are acting more cautiously in the short term and are taking possible economic uncertainties into account. Nevertheless, rising oil prices are offsetting potential declines in inflation that could result from the weak labor market figures, meaning that the general market optimism is not completely interrupted. Overall, capital flows show that despite geopolitical tensions and short-term volatility, an overwhelmingly positive attitude towards digital asset investment products prevails, with investors continuing to see opportunities in this emerging asset class and willing to accept the risk.

$BTC (+0,03%)
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$XRP (-0,29%)

How to invest in crypto:

$BITC (+3,78%)
$CETH (+2,81%)
$XRRL (+3,33%)
$SLNC (+3,17%)

Is it actually considered a falling knife if cryptos have been falling for what feels like half a year🤔? I don't care, I buy small tranches from time to time. Today some ETH, SOL, XRP and Chainlink. All just small amounts, but better than nothing 😃. Bitcoin makes up 95% of my crypto holdings, but it has to be fun.

I'm having a discussion with friends and would like to hear what you think.

I currently hold around 0.208 BTC. Some of it was bought over the years, but some of it also came as a gift from family (birthday, Christmas, etc.).

The total amount of money I have invested in Bitcoin is around €5,536.

If I do the simple math:

€5,536 / 0.208 BTC = about €26,600 per BTC.

For me, that honestly feels like my "real" entry price, because that's the money I actually put in myself.

But now comes the point where the discussion started.

I exchanged some altcoins for Bitcoin in November 2024, when the price was already relatively high. As a result, some people say that my average price should actually be much higher, in some cases closer to 70k, because this exchange practically counts as a new purchase.

Others say the same thing:

The Bitcoins I received as a gift shouldn't actually be included in the average because I didn't pay anything for them.

In the end - depending on how you do the math - I end up with completely different "entry prices".

Once around 26k,

sometimes significantly higher due to the trades,

or theoretically even lower if you look at the gifts differently.

So I'll just ask around:

How would you calculate your entry?

- Just your own invested money?

- Include every trade at the price at the time?

- Or are donated coins simply a bonus without an entry price?

I just realized that the "average entry" is much less clear than I always thought.

😂😆😂😆

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#crypto

Investment products on digital assets recorded inflows of USD 1 billion last week, ending a five-week period of outflows that totaled USD 4 billion. From a macroeconomic perspective, it is difficult to attribute the change in sentiment to a single trigger. However, the previously weak price performance, the break of important technical support levels and renewed accumulation by large $BTC (+0,03%)-holders are likely to have contributed to the trend reversal. Anecdotally, it can also be observed that recent client discussions are almost exclusively about attractive entry levels and no longer about reducing the allocation to this asset class.

Bitcoin was the main beneficiary, attracting USD 881 million. At the same time, inflows into short Bitcoin products amounting to USD 3.7 million illustrate that opinions continue to diverge. Ethereum also saw inflows totaling USD 117 million - the highest since mid-January. Both $ETH (-0,51%) and #bitcoin are still net negative since the beginning of the year.

$SOL (-1,12%) In contrast, inflows of USD 53.8 million were recorded last week and total USD 156 million since the start of the year. At $LINK (-0,36%) (Chainlink) saw inflows of a moderate USD 3.4 million, while there were no significant outflows.

You can invest in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Chainlink via the following vehicles:

$BITC (+3,78%)
$CETH (+2,81%)
$SLNC (+3,17%)
$CCHA (+2%)

Digital assets remain in consolidation. $BTC (+0,03%) has been fluctuating between USD 67,000 and 70,000 for weeks, while major market participants continue to sell: an estimated USD 30 billion has flowed out of so-called whales since October 2025. At 64%, their share of exchange deposits is at its highest level since 2015 - a clear supply overhang.

Macroeconomic headwinds also remain: a more restrictive tone from the US Federal Reserve and dampened expectations of interest rate cuts are putting pressure on risk appetite. Spot Bitcoin and $ETH (-0,51%)-ETFs recorded outflows of USD 4.3 billion for five weeks in a row.

And yet: the first signs of a bottom are becoming visible. Bitcoin's relative strength index fell to 16 - historically an extreme value in oversold territory. Leverage ratios have fallen significantly, valuation ratios are normalizing and inflows of around USD 1 billion have returned for the first time this week.

The environment remains fragile in the short term. But structurally, the conditions for the next phase of expansion could slowly emerge. (Text by James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

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