Tom Lee says ETH will reach $50,000. He is known for his conservative price targets.

Be patient for a short time now before the next sell-off hopefully occurs. If everything goes according to plan, there will be further entries in February. My current plans are as follows:

$MSTR (-5,92%)

$COIN (-4,96%)

$BMNR (-5,96%)

$RIOT (-9,13%)

The next major cycle could take us into July. There again, crypto can be unloaded for the fall sell-off. On the way up, of course, sell again in tranches. For now, however, I will continue to watch from the sidelines. In the event of a direct rise, I am still holding small positions in Bitcoin, $COIN (-4,96%) and $BMNR (-5,96%) represented. You never know^^

Questions, opinions, additions? Alternative forecasts also welcome.

With a current YTD return of around 21%, we can ultimately be satisfied. In addition, the cash ratio in my portfolio is now just under 43%. As I have already written in the past (partly at the beginning of October), this is due to the weak-looking US markets and also crypto. You can clearly see the bearish divergences in the RSI for many stocks and I am also concerned about the VIX, which has started to make higher highs since the summer, with US indices rising at the same time. I don't really expect much to happen in terms of volatility between now and New Year's Eve. The only surprise could still be waiting for us tomorrow on the Witches' Sabbath. But I don't think there will be any more really good buying prices this year.

What could be interesting at the start of 2026?

I'm currently looking at the crypto sector. My preferred scenario would be for Bitcoin to reach around 70000-74000$ and for Ethereum to reach 2250$. There you could take swing trades over 2-3 months if Bitcoin then hits the 100000$ region again. I would trade this via $COIN (-4,96%) and $BMNR (-5,96%)

In the later course of 2026, everything will continue to be monitored. There are always attractive entry points somewhere when the US indices come down again. However, it will only become interesting when the VIX reaches the 30 level or higher again and the US indices return towards the 200-week line. My desired range here would be S&P 6100-5600, Nasdaq 22700-20400.

My rough strategy explained:

The watchlist is bulging with growth stocks, but also other sectors. However, certain conditions must be met in order to enter/buy into new or existing stocks. When buying and re-buying, I basically pay attention to at least 3 important things:

-Current price either at or below the 200 week line

-Weekly RSI at least 50 or lower

-Daily RSI oversold.

Using the example of my $OXY (-0,31%) yesterday looks like this:

-current price 40$ (200 week line 57$ - check)

-Weekly RSI at least 50 or lower (46.40 - check)

-Daily RSI oversold (45.00 - check)

Why should you impose rules for buying and selling on yourself?

In my opinion, the biggest disruptive factor in investing is people themselves. With clear rules based on data and indicators, I try to eliminate myself as a human factor. It's not me buying the shares, so to speak, but the set of rules.

Conversely, and this is perhaps the even more important point, this set of rules also decides what NOT to buy. This avoids many fomo purchases and also prevents you from "falling in love with shares" or chasing trends, as you hear and see so often.

Another thing I have learned in recent years is to sell shares rigorously, even when they are down, if the investment case no longer exists. Here, too, I have repeatedly read phrases such as "when I'm back in the black, I'll sell" or "it's only a loss when I sell". From a purely rational point of view, this is complete cheese.

Well then. Let's see what happens next year. Many fear high vola, but I myself like such an environment, I have to say. Here's to a vola-rich 2026 😎🚀

roadmap, if I manage 15% p.a. with a monthly savings rate of €1000:

Strategy is no longer a traditional software company, but a highly focused Bitcoin trust vehicle with an operational software substructure. The share offers a leveraged exposure to the Bitcoin price, combined with a still existing - albeit secondary - BI business.

For investors who believe in the long-term value of Bitcoin, Strategy is one of the purest listed BTC plays.

🟢

Buy - If the following applies

You are convinced that Bitcoin will reach significantly higher prices in the long term (100k+, 200k+).

Strategy can then be supported by:

• BTC holdings
• Additional BTC purchases via capital raising
• Leverage through debt capital
• Branding as a leading corporate hodler

benefit disproportionately.

You're not buying the software business here - you're buying the Saylor effect + BTC leverage.

If you believe in Bitcoin adoption, you are buying a "Bitcoin on steroids" with Strategy.

🟡

Hold - If you are already invested

If you are already in, it makes sense to hold the position as long as:

• you accept the high risk
• you see Strategy as a long-term Bitcoin proxy
• you can withstand the volatility
• you understand that capital increases and dilution are part of the model

Hold is suitable for investors who do not want to reduce their BTC exposure, but also do not want to increase it excessively.

🔴

Rethink - If one of these applies

Rethink the entry or existing position if:

• you are uncomfortable with capital dilution, high debt and volatility
• you were expecting a classic software investment
• you don't want a share to be 80-95% dependent on the price of Bitcoin
• you are planning a conservative portfolio share

Strategy is not a defensive stock, not a dividend stock, not a fundamental play - it is a high-conviction bet on Bitcoin with leverage.

📌

Short summary

$MSTR (-5,92%)
$BTC (-0,3%)
$3350 (-5,37%)
$BMNR (-5,96%)

• Buy: For Bitcoin convinced, high-risk-high-reward investors.
• Hold: For already invested BTC bulls.
• Rethink: For those who expect a stable software company or don't want to live with extreme price swings.