Outlook 2026 Part II

With a current YTD return of around 21%, we can ultimately be satisfied. In addition, the cash ratio in my portfolio is now just under 43%. As I have already written in the past (partly at the beginning of October), this is due to the weak-looking US markets and also crypto. You can clearly see the bearish divergences in the RSI for many stocks and I am also concerned about the VIX, which has started to make higher highs since the summer, with US indices rising at the same time. I don't really expect much to happen in terms of volatility between now and New Year's Eve. The only surprise could still be waiting for us tomorrow on the Witches' Sabbath. But I don't think there will be any more really good buying prices this year.

What could be interesting at the start of 2026?

I'm currently looking at the crypto sector. My preferred scenario would be for Bitcoin to reach around 70000-74000$ and for Ethereum to reach 2250$. There you could take swing trades over 2-3 months if Bitcoin then hits the 100000$ region again. I would trade this via $COIN (-4,96%) and $BMNR (-5,96%)

In the later course of 2026, everything will continue to be monitored. There are always attractive entry points somewhere when the US indices come down again. However, it will only become interesting when the VIX reaches the 30 level or higher again and the US indices return towards the 200-week line. My desired range here would be S&P 6100-5600, Nasdaq 22700-20400.

My rough strategy explained:

The watchlist is bulging with growth stocks, but also other sectors. However, certain conditions must be met in order to enter/buy into new or existing stocks. When buying and re-buying, I basically pay attention to at least 3 important things:

-Current price either at or below the 200 week line

-Weekly RSI at least 50 or lower

-Daily RSI oversold.

Using the example of my $OXY (-0,31%) yesterday looks like this:

-current price 40$ (200 week line 57$ - check)

-Weekly RSI at least 50 or lower (46.40 - check)

-Daily RSI oversold (45.00 - check)

Why should you impose rules for buying and selling on yourself?

In my opinion, the biggest disruptive factor in investing is people themselves. With clear rules based on data and indicators, I try to eliminate myself as a human factor. It's not me buying the shares, so to speak, but the set of rules.

Conversely, and this is perhaps the even more important point, this set of rules also decides what NOT to buy. This avoids many fomo purchases and also prevents you from "falling in love with shares" or chasing trends, as you hear and see so often.

Another thing I have learned in recent years is to sell shares rigorously, even when they are down, if the investment case no longer exists. Here, too, I have repeatedly read phrases such as "when I'm back in the black, I'll sell" or "it's only a loss when I sell". From a purely rational point of view, this is complete cheese.

Well then. Let's see what happens next year. Many fear high vola, but I myself like such an environment, I have to say. Here's to a vola-rich 2026 😎🚀

roadmap, if I manage 15% p.a. with a monthly savings rate of €1000:

Outlook 2026

Today I wanted to give you my outlook for next year. Many in the community are already busy buying shares, and there are always exciting sectors (currently pharmaceuticals and some commodities). As far as the tech sector is concerned, however, I think you should be careful about buying too early. With a look at my watchlist, I have created an overview that shows that 2026 is likely to be a weak year in the tech sector (and also in crypto). Apart from the fact that midterm years tend to be weak anyway. The companies on my watchlist are almost all behaving similarly. In the course of the bull market, new highs have always been reached in purely technical terms, while the RSI levels are already showing weakness. Some of the stocks are already starting to fall below the RSI average. My current desired scenario would be to strike exactly where it matters, and that is the 200 week average. The drawdown for the stocks mentioned, for example, is somewhere between -40% and -70% of the 200-week average. If this scenario materializes, then I think there will be lifetime entries at the 200 week in fundamentally good companies (as well as crypto) next year.

For your own portfolio, this means lower risk and higher cash. Whether you have to short is another story, I don't know much about that 😁

Investors who trade according to "time in the market beats timing the market" should not be interested in this. But for those who regularly work with cash ratios, I think it does.

How do you see the situation next year? Will you even go along with it or do you see it completely differently?

$PLTR (-2,49%)
$TFBANK (-2,94%)
$APP (-1,73%)
$AXON (+3,78%)
$PNG (-3,91%)
$CORT (-7,42%)
$VRT (-7,33%)
$IESC (-6,57%)
$MOD (-9,62%)
$ORCL (-3,21%)
$HIMS (-1,38%)

Epi@Epi

10Mês

Thanks for the interesting insight and congratulations on the performance!

I'm excited to see what happens in 2026 and hope that you'll still be here then. 💪

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Dirty30@Dirty30

@Epi Thank you too, of course. Hope for further insights and knowledge 😁

ichmussweg@ichmussweg

9Mês

When actively trading, I always ask myself how things are going with your taxes!

@ichmussweg quite simply. I paid 10000€ capital gains tax last year :D

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@Dirty30 That makes sense. I just thought there might be some tricks I didn't know about. I'm sure there are (holding?) but not for 10k income tax.

Happy trading then :)

@ichmussweg Unfortunately, I'm not aware of any tricks. But let me put it this way, if a year really goes so well that you can pay a lot of tax, then you can't complain 😁

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@Iwamoto Those were the days. The futures price was still at 850$. It has developed really well, although the first interim target has now slowly been reached at 1800$. But don't worry, I'll be in touch from time to time 😊