... but is the altcoin season coming or not?
This question is currently causing a lot of discussion in the crypto community. While some are speculating on another explosive move in Bitcoin (often referred to as the "banana curve"), I am personally rather skeptical - for several reasons.
1. market capitalization as a brake on exponential growth
The total crypto market capitalization is currently (as of July 2025) over USD 2.36 trillion (2,360,000,000,000). In previous cycles, the market was much smaller, which meant that massive capital inflows could cause extreme price increases relatively easily - especially for $BTC (+0,05%) . Today, a similar rally would require billions of fresh funds. It seems unrealistic that these funds would flow exclusively into $BTC (+0,05%) would flow exclusively into Many market participants have diversified their strategies. The market itself has also changed significantly and is pricing in euphoria more quickly.
2. altcoin indicators are green
A look at the Altcoin Season Index shows: We are now (as of July 20, 2025) at the 50 point mark - a traditional signal that altcoins are starting to outperform bitcoin in terms of gains. Historically, this is an early indicator of an altcoin season. Bitcoin dominance is also falling further below the 60-65% mark - another signal that capital is being shifted into smaller coins. $ETH (+0,08%) , $SOL (+0,29%) and other layer 1s are already picking up strongly. In addition, many sectors (AI coins, meme coins, DeFi) are performing above average.
3. further arguments for a possible altcoin season
- $ETH (+0,08%) / $BTC (+0,05%) -Pair shows relative strength of Ethereum versus Bitcoin - typical precursor of altcoin runs.
- Fresh liquidity from institutional products (e.g. Ethereum ETFs, spot products in the pipeline).
- The retail market is slowly reawakening, resulting in more volume for smaller projects.
⚠️ But, but, but...
It remains to be seen whether this really is an all-encompassing altcoin season or just a sectoral hype. Individual altcoins are rising, which does not necessarily mean the end of an overall rise. However, there is still a healthy degree of skepticism - especially in a highly volatile market.
My personal outlook
In the long term, I see great potential for $BTC (+0,05%) as a basic digital asset and hedge against inflation. I am equally confident $ETH (+0,08%) with its dominant smart contract position. $SOL (+0,29%) shows impressive technical progress and network activity. And also $XRP (+0,34%) remains on my watch list - particularly with regard to institutional applications in payment transactions.
Even though I am currently gradually exiting my large and small positions, I am now (after the last 4 years of experience) only positioning myself in the above-mentioned assets and holding them for 15+ years.
👉 What do you think? Have we already reached the altcoin season or is this just an interim high? Which coins are you watching particularly closely at the moment?
Let's have an objective discussion. 💬📈