Alphabet Inc. Class A
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Don't press the button!!!
(This is not investment advice!)
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Top News Stories from the Past Week
As we do every week, here are the top news stories from the past week:
Monday:
Anthropic takes the next step toward an IPO and files its prospectus. The world’s largest initial public offering could thus take place in November. In the first half of the year, the company increased its revenue sixteenfold, from $1.2 billion in the first half of 2025 to $16.3 billion. However, it also posted a loss of $80.75 billion.
Tuesday:
$MBG (-0,02%) Mercedes-Benz lowers its forecasts. The profit margin is expected to plummet to 2–3%. Severance agreements are also weighing on earnings. Analysts are not surprised by the new estimates.
Thursday:
At $GOOGL (-3,78%) Alphabet, expectations had risen so sharply that the company fell short of them. Alphabet’s profit fell significantly, while analysts had expected an increase. Revenue, however, rose by 25%. Fluctuations in the value of investments—such as those in SpaceX—also contributed to the profit trend.
Friday:
After $VOW (-0,39%) VW had already reported a loss, Audi today reported a plunge in profits to 95 million euros. Revenue plummeted by more than 10% to 42 billion euros in the first nine months.
https://m.bild.de/politik/autokrise-krasser-gewinneinbruch-bei-audi-6ae44ed8981b80c0b7986840
The German economy is growing surprisingly strongly. GDP rose by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. Private consumption, in particular, increased. If the water levels of the Rhine had been higher, growth could likely have been even greater.
Hackers—presumably from North Korea—have apparently carried out the largest crypto heist ever. At the exchange $BUSD (-0,02%) Binance, assets worth 6.3 billion USD were stolen. In response, Bitcoin plummeted by 3%. Binance intends to cover 100% of the losses.
$BAYN (+2,27%) Bayer has once again prevailed in court in a glyphosate case. The stock has risen significantly, as the ruling underscores the importance of the Supreme Court’s decision that plaintiffs can no longer rely on the absence of cancer warnings on packaging.
Google is the most profitable company in the world 🪙📈🤑
And you've NEVER been able to buy at such a low P/E ratio… NEVER!
List of stock recommendations from a leading Swiss bank—This is not investment advice on my part!
I received something quite interesting from a colleague today.
The exact source remains confidential for security reasons, and I’m only sharing a redacted version:
I’d like to show you the stock recommendation list from one of Switzerland’s largest universal banks and hear your thoughts on it:
THIS DOES NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE AND IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
International growth stocks:
Technology (Top 3 – BUY):
$GOOGL (-3,78%): BUY – Price target at 584.55 USD – Revenue growth 15.2%, net profit margin 32.8%
$MSFT (-4,58%): BUY – Price target of 810 USD – Revenue growth 14.93%, net profit margin 36.15%
$NVDA (-9,68%): BUY - Price target of 542 USD - Revenue growth 114.2%, net profit margin 55.85%
Consumer Staples (BUY):
$LISN (-0,55%) Lindt & Sprüngli: BUY - Price target of 12,500 CHF - Revenue growth of 8.18%, net margin of 12.29%
Consumer Discretionary (BUY):
$AMZN (-3,33%) Amazon: BUY - Price target at $405 - Revenue 12.38%, net margin 10.83%
$MELI (-11,29%) Mercado Libre: BUY - Price target of 3,487 USD - Revenue 39%, net margin 6.9%
Also a BUY: $MC (-1,5%)
LVMH and $CFR (-2,08%) Richemont
Note:
Please keep in mind that this is a snapshot. The rating could change from BUY to SELL by the next day without being updated in this post.
If you find this post interesting, I may share something similar again in the future.
I find all the stocks mentioned here very interesting and have already given them some thought myself.
Just for fun, I opened a test portfolio and bought each of the mentioned positions at the current price for about CHF 1,000. Depending on the situation, I’ll sell them when they reach the stated price targets.
Let’s see what happens...
Let’s get rich... or something like that...
Feel free to save this post for later!
Alphabet falls 11.3% to about $288 in premarket trading following its earnings report:
$GOOGL (-3,78%)
Weakness in Search and sharply rising AI spending overshadow the boom at Google Cloud
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The bottom line: Wall Street is cutting price targets left and right, and Citizens has downgraded the stock. Investors are questioning whether the AI trend can be monetized quickly enough to offset weaker growth in traditional search and the massive rise in infrastructure costs.
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Average price target: $399
Potential from the current price of ~$288: ~39%
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Current analyst estimates:
• Pivotal Research: Buy, $475 (unchanged) (+65%)
• Mizuho: Outperform, $460 (unchanged) (+60%)
• Canaccord: Buy, $450 (unchanged) (+56%)
• Guggenheim: Buy, $450 (unchanged) (+56%)
• Evercore ISI: Outperform, $435 (down from $450) (+51%)
• Barclays: Overweight, $405 (down from $425) (+41%)
• Susquehanna: Positive, $400 from $460 (+39%)
• KeyBanc: Overweight, $385 from $410 (+34%)
• BofA: Buy, $380 from $430 (+32%)
• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $375 from $400 (+30%)
• Raymond James: Strong Buy, $350 from $400 (+21%)
• Bernstein: Market Perform, $325 from $385 (+13%)
• DA Davidson: Neutral, $300 from $350 (+4%)
• Citizens: Downgraded to Market Perform
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Why the stock is falling:
• Search growth slowed to around 12%, below expectations and significantly weaker than in Q2
• AI-powered search queries are growing strongly but are still monetized less effectively than traditional search queries
• YouTube ad revenue growth also slowed to about 9%
• Operating income missed expectations due to higher AI R&D and TPU costs
• Free cash flow fell to approximately minus $9 billion, while quarterly Capex reached $51.4 billion
• Management anticipates a further significant increase in investments for 2027
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What analysts continue to view positively:
• Google Cloud revenue surged 103% year-over-year to $30.7 billion
• Cloud operating income more than tripled to approximately $11.1 billion
• Cloud margin reached a record high of 36.2%
• Backlog rose to $561 billion
• TPU system sales are emerging as a significant new revenue driver
• Search query growth reached its highest level in five years
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The key debate: Google is winning in AI adoption, but monetization is lagging behind. Investors now want evidence that AI-powered search and agent-based search can achieve similar long-term profitability to traditional Google search.
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The Bull Case: Google Cloud could be significantly undervalued by the market. Mizuho believes that TPU revenue and margins could contribute much more to profits than currently factored into the consensus, thereby offsetting some of the weakness in Search.
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The Risk: Alphabet is entering the most capital-intensive phase of its history, while at the same time its most profitable core business is experiencing weaker growth. If monetizing AI search takes longer than expected, free cash flow and margins could remain under pressure well into 2027.
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Conclusion: AI demand isn’t Alphabet’s problem. The problem is monetization. Cloud revenue is skyrocketing, TPU demand is growing, and search engagement is strong. However, investors want to see this momentum translate into profits quickly enough to justify the massive AI investment cycle.
𝐀𝐥𝐩𝐡𝐚𝐛𝐞𝐭: 𝐐𝟑 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐄𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬, 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐠𝐥𝐞 𝐂𝐥𝐨𝐮𝐝 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝟏𝟎𝟑% 𝐚𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝
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📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬
• GAAP EPS: $2.12 (Normalized Est. $2.97, not directly comparable).
• Revenue: $127.58B (Est. $127.91B) ❌, +25% YoY.
• Operating Income: $40.58B, +30% YoY.
• Operating Margin: 31.8%.
• Net Income: $26.47B (vs. $34.98B YoY).
• Operating Cash Flow: $42.29B.
• Free Cash Flow: -$9.07B.
• Capital Expenditures: $51.36B.
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📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬
• Q3 revenue missed consensus by ~0.3%, despite 25% YoY growth.
• Google Cloud revenue surged 103% to $30.71B, with operating income tripling to $11.12B.
• Google Search revenue increased 12% to $63.35B, with query growth reaching its highest YoY rate in five years.
• YouTube advertising revenue grew 9% to $11.21B.
• Google Services revenue increased 11% to $96.30B, with operating income reaching $39.16B.
• Gemini app reached 1B users, while first-party model APIs processed nearly 32B tokens per minute, more than 4x YoY.
• YouTube Music and Premium surpassed 150M subscribers globally, including trials.
• Q3 capital expenditures more than doubled YoY to $51.36B, exceeding operating cash flow and resulting in negative free cash flow.
• Net income was impacted by an $8.7B loss on equity securities, reducing EPS by approximately $0.55.
• Alphabet issued $12.4B in common stock and $28.7B in senior unsecured notes during Q3.
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💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲
“Google Cloud revenues grew 103%, powered by huge demand for our AI infrastructure and AI solutions. We’re also seeing strong demand for our TPU systems across a wide range of customers.”
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