1Semana·

𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐟𝐲: 𝐐𝟑 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐄𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬, 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝟑𝟐%, 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞

$SHOP (+1,71%)

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📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬

• GAAP EPS: $0.36 (Normalized Est. $0.46, not directly comparable).

• Revenue: $3.742B (Est. $3.74B) 🟰, +32% YoY.

• GAAP Net Income: $462M (vs. $264M YoY).

• Operating Income: $568M, +66% YoY.

• Gross Profit: $1.781B, +28% YoY.

• Free Cash Flow: $816M, +61% YoY.

• Free Cash Flow Margin: 22%, +400 bps YoY.

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🎯 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞

• Q4 Revenue Growth: Low-30% YoY.

• Q4 Gross Profit Growth: High-20% YoY.

• Q4 Operating Expenses: 29%–30% of revenue.

• Q4 Stock-Based Compensation: ~$155M.

• Q4 Free Cash Flow Margin: Consistent with Q4 2025.

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📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬

• Q3 revenue was essentially in line with consensus, with 32% growth in both reported and constant currency terms.

• Gross Merchandise Volume surged 29% YoY to $119.15B.

• Monthly Recurring Revenue increased 19% YoY to $230M.

• Operating income grew 66%, significantly outpacing revenue growth of 32%.

• Free cash flow increased from $507M to $816M, with margin expanding from 18% to 22%.

• GAAP net income increased 75% YoY to $462M.

• Repurchased $562M in common shares during Q3.

• Q4 guidance points to continued revenue growth above 30% YoY.

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💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲

“We extended our track record of consistent execution, with 32% revenue growth and a 22% free cash flow margin.”

5

Aktienfox

@Aktienfox

2Mês·

A 100,000-Euro AI Experiment Put to the Test

This portfolio is a long-term experiment: An artificial intelligence was given a virtual starting capital of 100,000 euros to allocate. To ensure a consistent strategy, I regularly, every six months, to the leading models (ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude) for portfolio updates and potential rebalancing.

The AI has done an excellent job so far and has significantly outperformed the broad market indices.

Portfolio Key Figures (getquin Performance)

Total portfolio value: 273,048.83 EUR
Invested capital: 134,913.40 EUR
Unrealized gains: +102.41% (+138,163.84 EUR)
Realized gains: +97.09% (+34,148.65 EUR)
Total return: +173,860.76 EUR

Top Positions and Drivers

Palantir Technologies ($PLTR (+1,95%)
): +418.18%

Nvidia ($NVDA (+0,58%)
): +335.65%

Alphabet Inc. Class A ($GOOGL (+2,42%)
): +137.72%

ASML Holding ($ASML (+2,17%)
): +98.18%

Shopify ($SHOP (+1,71%)
): +83.57%

Amazon ($AMZN (-1,28%)
): +66.31%

Consolidation in individual stocks such as Novo Nordisk (-13.84%) is factored into the allocation and is offset by the fundamental strength of the core positions. In addition, profits were selectively taken on stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia in earlier cycles, and these funds were invested more heavily in Palantir and ASML. The AI models remain consistent in their view of Novo Nordisk, see strong potential, and wish to maintain this position.

Strategic Conclusion & Outlook

In the current six-month update, the AI recommends no changes: The portfolio remains unchanged in its current composition. The fundamental thesis regarding digital transformation and the scaling of AI systems still holds, while the cash flows of the held companies remain intact.

How do you assess the AI’s decisions in the current market environment?

More on this in my new video: https://youtu.be/R0ka3r9BlIo

7Posições

€ 273.294,12

102,57%

19

14 Comentários

Chris@Multibagger

2Mês

Based on the gains, I assume the portfolio has been running for quite some time. After all, it’s been a long time since $PLTR returned 420% and $NVDA returned 335%. I thought those AI models didn’t even exist back then! :-)

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