Postos
260Alphabet / Waymo $GOOG (-0,71%)
Amazon $AMZN (-1,65%)
Baidu $9888 (-0,48%)
BMW $BMW (-1,28%)
CATL $3750 (-0,55%)
Dassault Systems $DSY (-1,3%)
Hexagon $HEXA B (-1,07%)
Mercedes-Benz $MBG (-1,38%)
Mobileye $MBLY
NVIDIA $NVDA (-0,22%)
Siemens $SIE (-2%)
SONY $6758 (-1,64%)
Qualcomm $QCOM (-0,18%)
Tesla $TSLA (-2,68%)
Somehow, posts about $TSLA (-2,68%)
$MBG (-1,38%)
$VOW (-1,23%) and the assistance systems always seem strange to me, so I asked ChatGPT.
(Prompt: "self-driving cars Mercedes vs waymo vs tesla"
AI says:
Investor perspective:
Whether self-driving cars based on cameras will get approval in Europe for fully autonomous driving remains to be seen, because there is definitely a lot of criticism of the pure AI+ camera strategy.
It may work faster in America and Asia, where the media can be bribed even better and accidents are less relevant than sales figures, but in the EU a very large disinformation campaign would have to work against the will of the European lobby, which uses the expensive lidar systems.
Conclusion again from ChatGPT:
Tesla, as usual, has not unlocked another level on the launch date now, so they are still level 2, right? https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/autonomes-fahren-tesla-startet-robotaxi-dienst-mit-einigen-einschraenkungen/100135657.html
The Danish military is arming itself with new G-Classes. Up to 1,000 off-road vehicles are being procured, which we know from the Bundeswehr as the "Wolf".
New Wolf G464 replaces the old ones
The Bundeswehr is also gradually retiring its old wolves after more than three decades. Under a framework agreement between the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) and Mercedes-Benz, up to 5,800 vehicles of the new G model (type 464) will be procured by 2032. The contract has a total volume of around 1.3 billion euros.
Details can be found in the report under the link.
Something that may have gone under the radar yesterday due to the conflict in the Middle East: Yesterday it was announced that Trump could consider raising automotive tariffs again after all.
This is depressing share prices, particularly of $MBG (-1,38%) which has a decisive short-term reason. But compared to the competition, Mercedes Benz is beating BMW and Volkswagen.
Why? You can find out in this video.
Industry in Germany: 100,000 jobs cut
German industry is facing a profound upheaval. In just one year, around 100,000 jobs have been lost, representing a massive decline in the sector. The automotive industry in particular, which includes Mercedes $MBG (-1,38%) is severely affected. Around 45,400 employees have lost their jobs here. There are numerous factors behind this trend: technological innovations, the shift towards sustainable mobility concepts and global economic challenges that are increasing the pressure on the country's industrial base. This development could not only jeopardize Germany's economic stability, but also have a lasting impact on social structures in the affected regions. The question remains as to how politicians and companies will react to this change and whether new jobs can be created in promising sectors.
Northvolt's decline: a premature end
In recent years, Northvolt, a start-up specializing in cell manufacturing, has attracted a lot of attention. With over 15 billion dollars raised in a single financing round, the company was considered the largest of its kind. European politicians were keen to promote cell production on the continent in order to reduce dependence on Asian manufacturers. Despite support from well-known investors such as Volkswagen $VOW3 (-0,93%) and Goldman Sachs $GS (-1,04%)who were betting on a revolutionary future, the company went bankrupt two years after a valuation of 12 billion dollars. This rapid decline not only calls Northvolt's future into question, but also highlights the challenges facing innovative companies today. The lesson to be learned here concerns the risks and uncertainties in a rapidly changing economic environment.
Sources:
This analysis examines the relationship between Mercedes-Benz Group AG ($MBG (-1,38%)) and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) through statistical covariance analysis, covering the period from February 2024 through June 2025. Our findings reveal a negative covariance of -20.58, indicating these two automotive leaders tend to move in opposite directions, creating potential diversification benefits for investors.
Introduction
As the automotive industry undergoes its most significant transformation since the invention of the internal combustion engine, two companies represent different approaches to the electric vehicle revolution. Mercedes-Benz, a century-old luxury automaker, and Tesla, the electric vehicle pioneer, offer contrasting investment profiles that warrant detailed statistical analysis.
Company Performance Overview
Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBGAF)
Mercedes faced significant headwinds throughout the analysis period:
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Tesla demonstrated remarkable volatility and mixed performance:
Methodology: Covariance Analysis
Formula Used:
Cov(Mercedes, Tesla) = Σ(Mercedes Return - E[Mercedes])(Tesla Return - E[Tesla]) / (n-1)
Data Period: 17 months from February 2024 to June 2025 (17 monthly return observations)
Complete 17-Month Analysis (February 2024 - June 2025):
Monthly Returns Data:
Expected Returns:
Covariance Result: -20.58
Key Findings
1. Negative Correlation Pattern
The negative covariance of -20.58 indicates that when Mercedes stock rises, Tesla typically falls, and vice versa. This relationship suggests:
2. Volatility Analysis
3. Correlation Analysis
3. Market Response Patterns
Tesla Benefits From:
Mercedes Struggles With:
Industry Context
The Great Automotive Transition
The period analyzed captures a critical inflection point in automotive history:
Traditional Automaker Challenges (Mercedes):
EV Pioneer Advantages (Tesla):
Market Forces Driving Divergence
Regulatory Environment: EV mandates favor Tesla's pure-play approach
Consumer Preferences: Younger buyers gravitating toward Tesla brand
Technology Integration: Tesla's software-first approach vs. traditional hardware focus
Global Expansion: Different geographic exposure and market penetration
Investment Implications
Portfolio Construction Benefits
The negative covariance of -20.58 and correlation coefficient of -0.28 suggest these stocks could work well together in a portfolio:
Risk Considerations
Future Outlook
Mercedes-Benz Transformation
Tesla's Evolution
Conclusion
The negative covariance between Mercedes and Tesla reflects the broader transformation occurring in the automotive industry. While Tesla has capitalized on the EV revolution, Mercedes faces the complex challenge of transforming a century-old business model.
Key Takeaways:
Strong Diversification Value: The -20.58 covariance provides significant portfolio diversification benefits
Contrasting Risk Profiles: Tesla offers high-risk/high-reward potential (4.69% monthly average, 15.76% volatility); Mercedes provides stability (-1.17% monthly average, 4.64% volatility)
Industry Transformation Capture: Together, these stocks represent the full spectrum of automotive industry evolution from traditional luxury to electric innovation
Real-World Evidence: The most dramatic example occurred in January 2025 when Tesla plummeted -25.15% while Mercedes surged +10.02%, demonstrating the powerful diversification effect in action.
Investment Strategy Considerations:
The statistical relationship between these automotive giants offers investors a unique window into one of the most significant industrial transformations of our time. The -20.58 covariance, derived from 17 months of actual market data, provides a data-driven foundation for understanding how different approaches to automotive innovation translate into market performance and portfolio construction opportunities.
I would say it was good. But that's not quite true, the dividend was good.
That's why I'm not in the red. I'm keeping the other half of the position for now. We're hoping for better times in the future. The money will go into $TDIV (-0,23%) hopefully it will be blessed with a better return.
$MBG (-1,38%) Does anyone hold shares in N26 - the dividend should have been issued on May 12, but I still haven't received any payment.
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