At the beginning of each year, a position that is in the red is increased so that it incurs even more losses over the course of the year....

What a turbulent week on the stock market, I had to buy more 😅 How are things looking for you?

$KLAC (+0,33%)
$ADBE (-0,29%)
$SIKA (+0%)
$HOLN (+0%)
$MBG (+0%)
$CVX (+0,1%)
$MRNA (+0,84%)

$MBG (+0%)
$TSLA (-0,41%)

Mercedes-Benz is allowed to offer highly automated driving up to 95 km/h on German highways. The manufacturer is thus setting a new standard in the industry - while Tesla continues to lag behind in this area.

Mercedes: Level 3 autonomous driving up to 95 km/h

The German Federal Motor Transport Authority has granted Mercedes-Benz approval to equip the S-Class and the EQS with its advanced Drive Pilot. The system enables highly automated Level 3 driving and raises the previous speed limit from 60 to 95 km/h.

The driver can lean back in the right-hand lane of the highway behind a vehicle in front while the Drive Pilot takes control. Reading or working is permitted as long as attention can be directed back to the traffic if necessary.

In contrast to Tesla, which has so far only offered assisted driving functions without these freedoms, Mercedes has a clear head start with the certified Level 3 system. The new software will be available from spring 2025 via an update and does not require any additional hardware. The price for the function remains unchanged at €5,950 for the S-Class and €8,842 for the EQS. Vehicles already equipped will receive the update free of charge.

Mercedes: autonomous 130 km/h as the target

The technology from Mercedes is based on an extensive sensor system that combines cameras, radar and LiDAR to precisely record the surroundings. According to the manufacturer, map navigation accurate to the centimetre ensures that the vehicle can operate safely (source: Mercedes-Benz).

Mercedes has made it clear that these innovations not only improve comfort and safety, but also lay the foundation for future expansions. The aim is to gradually extend autonomous driving to 130 km/h.

https://www.giga.de/tech/mercedes-zieht-an-tesla-vorbei-davon-kann-elon-musk-nur-traeumen--01JFCWD3GA9H6YM5K0GAJ3VWEF

In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (-1,17%)
Intel $INTC (+0,05%)
Salesforce $CRM (+0,1%)
Alphabet $GOOG (+0,17%) and Meta $META (-0,13%) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (+1,39%)
Macy's $M (-0,02%)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (+0%) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (+0%)
and AT&T $T (+0,05%) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (+0,1%)
Nextera Energy $NEE (-0,38%)
or Xylem $XYL (+0,16%) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (+0,25%) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (+0%) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (+0,02%) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (-0,38%)

or Teladoc $TDOC (+0,52%) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (+0,39%) and MercadoLibre $MELI (+0,14%) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (+0,59%) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (+0,06%)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (+0,85%) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

$MBG (+0%) "Mercedes-Benz is allowed to drive highly automated vehicles at 95 km/h in Germany now that the Federal Motor Transport Authority in Germany has given its approval.

DRIVE PILOT is therefore the world's fastest system for highly automated driving (SAE level 3) in a series-production vehicle. Vehicles already equipped with DRIVE PILOT will receive the update free of charge, either over-the-air or during a workshop visit. This is expected to be available from spring 2025."

$MBG (+0%) once again experienced a significant setback yesterday. What do you think, will the announced savings programme stabilize the share price or will it go even further downhill.....⛷️

Analyst updates, 16.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• JEFFERIES raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 235 to USD 275. Buy. $AMZN (+0,12%)
• CITIGROUP raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 475 to EUR 522. Neutral. $MUV2 (+0%)
• BERENBERG raises the price target for RHEINMETALL from EUR 655 to EUR 750. Buy. $RHM (+0,08%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 36 to EUR 37. Hold. $PAH3 (+0%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for HENSOLDT from EUR 40 to EUR 42. Buy. $HAG (+0,03%)
• JEFFERIES raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 32. Buy. $SHEL (+0%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 46 to EUR 42. Market Perform. $PAH3 (+0%)
• HSBC downgrades SAP to Hold. Target price EUR 260. $SAP (+0%)
• LOOP CAPITAL downgrades NETFLIX to Hold. Target price 950 USD. $NFLX (-0,05%)
• EXANE BNP lowers the price target for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 57 to EUR 54. Underperform. $MBG (+0%)
• JEFFERIES downgrades FORD from Hold to Underperform and lowers target price from USD 12 to USD 9. $F (+0,16%)
• CITIGROUP lowers the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 5.80 to EUR 5.50. Buy. $TKA (+0%)
• STIFEL lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 20 to EUR 18. Hold. $AIXA (+0%)
• PARETO downgrades TRATON to Hold. Target price EUR 32.50. $8TRA (+0%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the target price for KINGFISHER from GBP 3.50 to GBP 3.40. Buy. $KGF (+0,1%)
• METZLER lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 104 to EUR 90. Buy. $AFX (+0%)
• BERENBERG lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 32 to EUR 28. Hold. $1SXP (+0%)
• CITIGROUP downgrades 1&1 to Neutral. Target price EUR 15. $1U1 (+0%)

German automotive industry: crisis or entry opportunity? 📉📈

The German automotive industry is in a deep crisis. $VOW (+0%) struggling with profit warnings, $BMW (+0%) and $MBG (+0%) reducing its margin forecasts and $P911 (-0,16%) is suffering from weak business in China. Added to this are geopolitical uncertainties such as possible tariffs and a global shift towards electromobility, which continues to require more and more investment.

The figures therefore speak for themselves: profits are collapsing, sales figures are stagnating and the labor market is facing a transformation that could cost over 140,000 jobs by 2035.

But we all know that: Crises can be opportunities for us.

The sector is historically cheaply valued: many shares are trading near 25-year lows.

Experten We see the first rays of hope in 2025 - thanks to new models, a possible stabilization of demand and a gradual improvement in innovative strength, particularly in the premium segment.

So which brands look the best in relation to their valuation and where are the biggest problems?

To find out hier a new article - spoiler: It plays a significant role who has production sites in China.

#porsche
#volkswagen
#bmw
#mercedes
#emobilität

This article is part of an advertising partnership with Société Générale

Analsyst updates, 06.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• BERNSTEIN raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 220 to EUR 227. Outperform. $SIE (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 38.70 to EUR 44. Neutral. $ENR (-0,93%)
• JEFFERIES upgrades BMW from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 80 to EUR 85. $BMW (+0%)
• ODDO BHF raises the price target for AURUBIS from EUR 70 to EUR 76. Neutral. $NDA (+0%)
• UBS raises target price for AUTO1 from EUR 9.80 to EUR 20.50. Buy. $AG1 (+0%)
• UBS raises the target price for NORDEA from SEK 144 to SEK 145. Buy. $NDA FI (+0,05%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 34 to EUR 36. Buy. $FNTN (+0%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for DS SMITH from GBP 4 to GBP 5.80. Hold. $SMDS (+0,15%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 3.80 to EUR 4.10. Neutral. $TKA (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SALZGITTER from EUR 11.50 to EUR 14.10. Underweight. $SZG (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from EUR 270 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SU (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 88 to EUR 92. Overweight. $KBX (+0%)
• MORGAN STANLEY upgrades HANNOVER RÜCK to Overweight. Target price EUR 292. $HNR1 (+0%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18.40 to EUR 19.50. Overweight. $CBK (+0%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• GOLDMAN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 770 to EUR 720. Buy. $MC (+0%)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades MUNICH RE to Equal-Weight. Target price 523 EUR. $MUV2 (+0%)
• JEFFERIES downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 73 to EUR 60. $MBG (+0%)
• ODDO BHF lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 43 to EUR 38. Neutral. $DHER (+0%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 31 to EUR 24.50. Buy. $COP (+0%)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 143 to DKK 123. Neutral. $VWS (+0,05%)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for KION from EUR 44 to EUR 43. Overweight. $KGX (+0%)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades ORSTED to Equal-Weight. Target price DKK 480. $ORSTED (+0,05%)

Dax dividends fall

In 2025, the 40 DAX companies will be paying out seven percent less than last year, according to a forecast by Handelsblatt. Car manufacturer shareholders will be hit particularly hard.

Many DAX shareholders will have to adjust to lower dividends for the current financial year: According to a forecast by Handelsblatt, the 40 Dax-listed companies will pay out a combined €48.5 billion next spring. That would be seven percent less than in the previous year.

At the same time, 22 companies are likely to further increase their payouts and eight will reduce their dividends. But overall, there will be a decline for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic. This is mainly due to the car manufacturers, where the dividend total is likely to fall by almost 35% to around ten billion euros. This is due to falling profits at VW $VOW (+0%) , BMW $BMW (+0%) and Mercedes $MBG (+0%) due to poor sales figures in Europe and especially in the former boom country China.

In contrast, the sporting goods manufacturer Adidas $ADS (+0%) , the Deutsche Telekom
$DTE (+0%) and the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall $RHM (+0,08%) are increasing their dividends particularly sharply. This also applies to Deutsche Bank
$DBK (+0%) and Commerzbank $CBK (+0%) and the insurers Allianz $ALV (+0%) , Munich Re
$MUV2 (+0%) and Hannover Re
$HNR1 (+0%) . The healthcare group Fresenius $FRE (+0%) has not distributed anything for 2023, but is now planning a dividend again.

Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp sees a rotation: "In 2011, the automotive sector replaced utilities as the sector with the highest dividends. Now it is becoming apparent that after 14 years, insurers will be the new number one dividend payers in the DAX."

Handelsblatt