$1211 (-0,87%)
Let me know your thoughts, guys.
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### 1. 🔍 Key Insights
- **Market Leadership**: BYD is the world’s leading NEV (New Energy Vehicle) manufacturer with vertical integration from battery production to vehicle assembly.
- **Durable Moat**: Strong cost control, R&D intensity (~100k engineers), and global expansion (Europe, Japan, Africa).
- **Financial Resilience**: Low leverage, high ROIC, and strong interest coverage despite high CapEx.
- **Valuation Premium**: Trades above traditional automakers, reflecting growth expectations.
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### 2. 🧩 Core Evaluation Areas
#### **Valuation**
- **P/E (TTM)**: 24.6
- **EV/EBITDA**: 9.88
- **FCF Yield**: 2.17%
- **DCF Implied Value**: ~¥300/share
- **Margin of Safety Price**: ¥240/share
- **Current Price**: ~¥356/share
#### **Growth Potential**
- **Revenue CAGR (5Y)**: 35.5%
- **Dividend CAGR (5Y)**: ~20.1%
- **Expansion**: Entering South Africa, Japan, Europe, and scaling exports.
#### **Operational Efficiency**
- **ROIC**: 13.4%
- **WACC**: 11.9%
- **CapEx / FCF**: 4.67 → High reinvestment mode
- **Margins**: Gross 19%, Net 5.7%
- **ROE**: 23%, **ROA**: 4%
#### **Risk Factors**
**Company-Specific (Moderate):**
- High CapEx may suppress FCF short-term.
- Revenue reliant on Chinese subsidies.
**Market/Systemic (Moderate–High):**
- EV price war (Tesla, XPeng).
- Exposure to rates, FX, and policy shifts.
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### 3. 📈 Supporting Metrics & Comparisons
| Metric | BYD | Tesla | NIO |
|---------------|-----------|-----------|------------|
| Market Cap | $150.8B | $574.3B | $8.4B |
| ROIC | 13.4% | 17.5% | Negative |
| FCF (2024) | ¥23.26B | ~$3.6B | Negative |
| P/E (TTM) | 24.6 | 73.8 | N/A |
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### 4. 📉 Projections and Scenarios
- **Base Case**: 15–20% top-line growth, FCF expands slowly.
- **Downside**: Margin compression from price competition.
- **Upside**: Strong global rollout and innovation edge.
*Note: Scenarios based on stated assumptions—limited forward disclosures.*
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### 5. ⚠️ Risk Assessment & Categorization
| Risk Type | Level | Notes |
|-------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------------|
| Execution Risk | Moderate | Aggressive CapEx and global rollout pace. |
| Financial Risk | Low | Debt low; interest covered 20x+. |
| Regulatory Risk | Moderate | EV incentives; geopolitical dependencies. |
| Competitive Risk | High | Intense pricing from Tesla/legacy OEMs. |
| Macro Risk | Moderate | Input cost, FX, and demand variability. |
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### ✅ Conclusion & Recommendation
- **Intrinsic Value Estimate**: ¥300/share
- **Target Buy Range (20% MoS)**: ¥240–¥270
- **Current Price**: ~¥356
- **Conviction Level**: 3.5/5
**Summary**: BYD is a fundamentally strong company with a wide moat, disciplined management, and long-term tailwinds. However, current pricing reflects full growth optimism. Wait for a pullback or improved FCF conversion before initiating or adding.
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