$TUI1 (+2,09%) I would have rather invested the money in a vacation. Now I'm sitting here with a screen full of losses and a suitcase full of sand that I've never felt 🙃

Washington Post reports around 20% universal tariffs + Wells Fargo expresses skepticism about Tesla + Reorganization of Varta completed + Tradegate AG achieves new sales record + Tui set for recovery

Washington Post reports around 20% universal tariffs

• Wall Street has some pressure because of the reciprocal tariffs that are due on Wednesday.
• No one knows exactly how extensive and high the tariffs will be.
• However, the Washington Post reports that Trump will impose a universal tariff of around 20%.
• That would be higher than most Wall Street strategists expect, with a correspondingly high risk of coordinated countermeasures.
• 21:00 US: US President Trump, announcement of reciprocal tariffs

Wells Fargo $WFC (+0,49%)expresses skepticism about Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%)

• They point to declining delivery numbers in all key markets as well as diminishing effects of price cuts, which are likely to lead to a deterioration in the automotive margin in 2025.
• The bank remains particularly critical of the planned CyberCab launch in Austin and the announced lower-priced model, for which few details are yet available.
• Sales of new Tesla cars in Denmark fell by 65.6 percent year-on-year to 593 vehicles in March, according to data from Mobility Denmark.

Reorganization of Varta $VAR1completed

• The months-long reorganization of battery manufacturer Varta has been completed.
• "Following the now effective structural and accounting measures of the restructuring concept, its operational implementation will continue as planned until the end of 2027," the company announced.
• Solvency has been strengthened by the proceedings.
• The new owners of the battery manufacturer are the former majority shareholder, Austrian entrepreneur Michael Tojner, and sports car manufacturer Porsche AG.
• Both paid 30 million euros each and now each hold 50 percent of the shares in Varta AG.
• The Group has also received a loan of 60 million euros.
• However, according to earlier information, a larger part of the fresh money has already been earmarked for restructuring costs.
• At the same time, a haircut reduced Varta's liabilities from almost half a billion euros to 230 million euros.

Tradegate AG $T2G (+0%)achieves new sales record

• Tradegate AG, the market specialist for shares and ETFs on the Tradegate Exchange, achieves a monthly turnover record of 51.34 billion euros in March.
• The previous turnover record of EUR 43.55 billion was set in January 2021.
• In the entire first quarter of the current financial year, turnover amounted to around EUR 127 billion, which corresponds to an increase in turnover of 52.8% compared to the same period of the previous year (EUR 83 billion).
• The number of transactions in the first quarter amounted to 18,405,500, which corresponds to an average transaction volume of EUR 6,900 per individual transaction.
• The significant increase in turnover among private investors in the first quarter is attributable to the high volatility on the capital markets in light of the political uncertainties in Germany, Europe and the USA.
• Investor interest in the first quarter focused in particular on the few German "defense stocks", which reached new price highs with very high turnover.

Tui $TUI1 (+2,09%)set to recover, Hauck Aufhäuser advises to buy

• Tui shares, which were recently punished with the travel sector, started a recovery attempt on Tuesday.
• Following a buy recommendation from the private bank Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking, the share price rose by 4.1 percent.
• However, not much has been gained after a setback of more than 17 percent within a week.
• Recently, a gloomy mood in the sector had contributed to the Tui slump.
• Airlines in particular had suffered heavy losses in recent days due to concerns about demand on transatlantic routes, which is weakening in the face of economic uncertainty, especially among US consumers.
• The previous day, the Travel & Leisure sector index reached its lowest level since August under the impact of US President Donald Trump's policies.
• Marie-Therese Gruebner from Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking now praised Tui's "unique and broad-based business model".
• With a high price target of 10 euros, the expert sees a good half of the share price potential.
• The Group differentiates itself with economies of scale and a brand that is a "highly valued seal of quality".
• The expert assumes that the structural demand for travel will clearly overshadow global economic growth with an increase of 5.1 percent.
• Travel remains a priority for consumers and, in her opinion, increasing cost awareness should tend to boost demand for package tours.
• Gruebner gave Tui a "buy" rating on Tuesday.
• She is thus one of the optimists in the dpa-AFX analyst's database.
• It was only in March that JPMorgan started the valuation of Tui shares with "Overweight".
• Deutsche Bank also recommends buying.
• In addition to neutral assessments from UBS, Bernstein and Jefferies, Barclays has issued an underweight recommendation.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Fortum EUR 1.40
• Comcast USD 0.33

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 15:00 Tesla deliveries and production Q1/25
• 22:00 Amgen quarterly figures
• Untimed: Nintendo presents details of the new Switch 2

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:30 Auto1 annual results
• 09:00 DHL Capital Markets Day Day 1 of 2
• 15:00 Volvo AB AGM

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Business notifications (business start-ups) 2024

12:30 FR: ECB Director Schnabel, keynote at Masterclass of SciencesPo

14:00 ES: Governing Council member Escriva, speech at event of the Entrepreneurs Association

14:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report March Private Sector Employment PROGNOSIS: +120,000 jobs previously: +77,000 jobs

15:30 UK: Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, discusses the Spring Statement to the Treasury Committee

16:00 US: Industrial orders February FORECAST: +0.5% yoy previous: +1.7% yoy

16:30 US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the government Energy Information Administration (EIA) previous week

21:00 US: US President Trump, announcement of reciprocal tariffs

21:45 EU: ECB President Lagarde, speech at the Sutherland Leadership Award

22:30 US: Fed Governor Kugler, speech on inflation expectations and monetary policy

Consumer confidence in the US falls to its lowest level in 4 years + Tui nears previous week's high on capital market day + Wacker Neuson targets higher earnings after a weak year + Aroundtown makes a profit again

Consumer confidence in the USA falls to its lowest level in 4 years

• Consumer sentiment in the USA has fallen to its lowest level for four years.
• The consumer indicator fell by 7.2 points to 92.9 points, according to the Conference Board market research institute in Washington on Tuesday.
• This is the lowest value since the beginning of 2021.
• Economists had expected a fall to 94.0 points.
• However, the figure for January was revised upwards from 98.3 to 100.1 points.
• Consumer expectations deteriorated particularly sharply in March.
• However, the assessment of the current situation also deteriorated noticeably.
• US President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policy is causing fears about future inflation and economic development to grow.
• According to the Conference Board, concerns about economic development and the labor market are also having an increasing impact on people's assessment of their personal situation.
• The recent optimism about future income development has also largely disappeared.
• Persistent inflation, high financing costs and a weaker labor market are weighing on the finances of private households.

Tui $TUI1 (+2,09%)approach previous week's high on capital market day

• Tui shares became the biggest MDax gainer on Tuesday in view of the Capital Markets Day.
• The shares recently rose by almost four percent.
• At 7.49 euros, the share price approached the previous week's high of 7.54 euros, the highest level in six weeks.
• Analyst Oliver Wojahn from MWB Research spoke of positive signals at the investor event.
• Despite the subdued consumer sentiment in the European core markets, robust demand for travel was emphasized.
• Building on improved credit ratings and the continued focus on profitable growth and cash inflow, the expert mentioned that Tui intends to define a strategy for returns to shareholders by the end of the fiscal year.

Wacker Neuson $WAC (+2,51%)targets higher earnings after a weak year

• After a difficult year, construction equipment manufacturer Wacker Neuson is aiming for higher earnings thanks to its cost-cutting program.
• The company announced in Munich on Wednesday that it aims to increase its earnings before interest and tax margin to between 6.5 and 7.5 percent in 2024.
• Last year, the operating margin slipped from 10.3% to 5.5% - the final quarter was therefore weaker than analysts had estimated.
• Turnover fell by 16 percent to 2.23 billion euros.
• This year, revenue is expected to remain more or less stable in a range between EUR 2.1 and 2.3 billion.
• Last year, Wacker Neuson struggled with the weak economy in Germany and Europe and had to lower its annual forecasts twice.
• Net profit fell by 62 percent to EUR 70.2 million. The dividend is to be cut from EUR 1.15 a year earlier to 60 cents.

Aroundtown $AT1 (+0,64%)makes a profit again

• The commercial real estate specialist Aroundtown was back in the black last year.
• On balance, the profit attributable to shareholders amounted to just under 53 million euros in 2024, as the MDax company announced on Wednesday.
• In the previous year, a significant devaluation of the real estate portfolio resulted in a loss of almost two billion euros.
• A decision on whether the company will pay a dividend again is to be made before the Annual General Meeting in June.
• Net rental income shrank by one percent to 1.18 billion euros due to the sale of properties.
• On a comparable basis, rents increased by 2.9 percent.
• The operating profit (FFO1) fell by five percent to just under 316 million euros.
• In addition to the lower number of properties, the perpetual bonds also had a negative impact here.
• For the current year, the real estate group is aiming for a further decline in operating profit and is forecasting between 280 million and 310 million euros.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• TotalEnergies EUR 0.79
• Neste 0.20 EUR
• Telephone L.M.Ericsson SEK 1.43

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
• 07:00 Commerzbank Annual Report | Aroundtown
• 07:00 Wacker Neuson Annual results
• 07:30 Renk annual results
• 07:30 Port of Hamburg | Koenig & Bauer Annual results
• 08:00 Jost Werke Annual Results and Annual Report
• 08:30 Porsche Automobil Holding Annual results
• 09:00 EnBW Annual results
• 10:00 Carl Zeiss Meditec AGM | Porsche Automobil Holding BI-PK
• 10:30 EnBW BI-PK
• 11:00 Jost Werke Analyst Conference
• 14:00 Renk | EnBW Analysts' Conference | Imperial Brands Capital Markets Day
• 17:50 Pirelli annual figures
• 18:00 Flatexdegiro Annual Report | Amadeus Fire detailed annual figures

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Public sector debt 4Q

08:00 UK: Consumer prices February FORECAST: +0.5% yoy/+2.9% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy/+3.0% yoy Core consumer prices FORECAST: +0.6% yoy/+3.7% yoy previous: -0.4% yoy/+3.7% yoy

08:45 FR: Consumer Confidence March FORECAST: 94 previous: 93

13:30 US: New orders for durable goods February FORECAST: -1.0% yoy previous: +3.2% yoy

15:30 US: Crude oil inventories data (week) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) previous week

18:10 US: Fed St. Louis President Alberto Musalem, speech at Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce luncheon

Today an overview of what can happen to a trader like me. The day before yesterday I fell flat on my face with a derivative on $TUI1 (+2,09%) with a loss of 35%. Today my derivative is up $ADYEN (-0,53%) 60%. So the joys and sorrows are so close together. Let's see what else the day brings.

This morning the TUI AG ($TUI1 (+2,09%) ) FY or Q1 2025 earnings webcast was also held this morning, and I would like to summarize the key points for you.

The first quarter was strong, with revenue up 13% and underlying EBIT up significantly to 51 million euros, mainly driven by the strong performance of Holiday Experiences.

Hotels & Resorts recorded growth of 60 million euros, with a 3% increase in bed numbers, a 2% increase in occupancy and a strong 5% increase in daily rate. The cruise business also performed well, with an increase of 14 million euros despite some refinancing costs. Here, capacity rose by 10%, occupancy by 1% and rates by 4%. TUI Musement also grew by 9 million euros, with the 12% growth in experiences being particularly noteworthy.

Markets & Airlines recorded a decline of 30 million euros. However, there were also positive developments: Dynamic Packaging grew by 18% and app sales by 40%. The integration of Ryanair in December has already shown initial success and further airlines and dynamic connections are set to follow.

In the hotel sector, new locations were opened in Asia, including a Robinson Club in Vietnam and the first TUI Blue Hotel in Indonesia.

Financially, this was the second time that TUI recorded a positive first quarter. The company received a BB rating from Fitch, which represents a positive development in financial stability. The refinancing was completed and the KfW facility was formally removed from the balance sheet.

EBIT development was largely driven by the product sides, in particular hotels and cruises. The decline in Markets & Airlines is attributable to investments in the summer. Cash flow and working capital remained stable, despite the seasonally lower revenue and payments from the summer. Investments were higher this quarter as there were some disposal proceeds in the previous year and hotel projects were postponed.

Bookings for the winter are positive and summer bookings are up 4% year-on-year. The company confirms its forecast for the full year 2025, with revenue growth of 5 % to 10 % and EBIT growth of 7 % to 10 %.

In the following analyst Q&A session, an analyst from Morgan Stanley started after the current trading session. He wanted to know whether the slowdown in bookings in Germany compared to December's figures was a cause for concern. He also asked why hotel average daily rates (ADR) were increasing more in the second half of the year than in the first quarter. The answer was that TUI is benefiting from its global hotel portfolio and rising demand, particularly from America, the Middle East and Asia. In Germany, the focus is on margin protection and volumes are being managed accordingly.

Another point was the rating upgrade, which the analyst addressed. He wanted to know how this would affect the interest expenses of 400 million euros. TUI explained that the improved rating has a direct impact on the costs of the credit facility and will lead to savings in leasing and asset financing in the long term.

An analyst from Bank of America asked about the benefits from the FTI insolvency. The answer was that it is difficult to quantify what impact this will have, but it isbut it is expected that there will be a positive impact.

Richard Clarke from Bernstein asked about the inclusion of Ryanair. He wanted to know if this is in addition to existing capacity. The answer was that capacity will be kept flat while growth will be achieved through dynamic packages such as with Ryanair. It was emphasized that any additional business activity will increase profitability.

Another question related to cruise capacity utilization, which is slightly lower compared to 2019. The response here was that it is expected to return to 2019 levels.

The analyst also asked about a possible dividend payment, to which TUI replied that a dividend strategy will only be presented at the end of 2025, after the financial situation has been stabilized.

An analyst from Deutsche Bank asked about the operating trends in the West region. TUI explained that it does not see a need to sell more firm capacity to protect margins. Instead, growth should come from dynamic package products, as is being done in other countries.

I hope you enjoyed the summary.

Stay tuned!

$TUI1 (+2,09%) The quarterly results and outlook for 2025 are all good, everything in positive territory, yet the shares are trading at almost -8%? Isn't that exaggerated?

Is there an opportunity to buy more?

I'm still holding on to my shares, I'm still up 40% at the moment.

What do you think about the future of TUI? It looks like it's waking up strongly after the COVID crisis.

Regards

Tui gains at the start of winter + UBS positive on Delivery Hero + Mediamarkt parent Ceconomy significantly increases sales and operating profit

TUI $TUI1 (+2,09%)
grows at the start of winter and reduces losses

• Tui, the world's largest travel group, has started the winter season with clear growth.
• In the first financial quarter to the end of December, the Group counted 3.7 million customers, six percent more than a year earlier, as it announced on Tuesday before the start of its Annual General Meeting in Hanover.
• For the rest of the year, smaller increases are expected so far: Tui has so far registered two percent more bookings than in the previous year for both the winter as a whole and the summer season.
• Prices rose by four percent. "We are on track for further growth for the year as a whole," said Tui CEO Sebastian Ebel.
• In the travel-weak months of October to December, turnover jumped by 13 percent to around 4.9 billion euros.
• Before interest, taxes and special effects (adjusted EBIT), Tui earned around 51 million euros, more than eight times as much as a year earlier.
• The bottom line was a loss of a good 85 million euros for shareholders.
• Tourism companies are usually in the red in winter.
• They make their profits in the peak travel season in summer.

UBS positive on Delivery Hero $DHER (+5,74%)

• Shares in online food delivery services are in demand on Monday.
• MDax leader Delivery Hero made it back above the technically significant 21-day moving average thanks to price gains of 5 percent.
• This is an important trend indicator for the short-term development.
• The same applied to the shares of cooking box mail order company Hellofresh , which rose by 2.6 percent.
• In Amsterdam and London, the shares of industry colleagues Just Eat Takeaway and Deliveroo met with buying interest, as shown by price gains of 2.9 and 1.3 percent respectively.
• The major Swiss bank UBS continues to recommend buying Delivery Hero.
• The confirmed price target of 55 euros implies a doubling of the current share price.
• Analyst Jo Barnet-Lamb wrote that data showed a stabilized market share for the subsidiary Baemin in South Korea in January.
• Market growth there remained in the double-digit percentage range in December.
• The focus remains on a possible gradual recovery story for the company in 2025.
• One trader also saw advance praise for Delivery Hero's upcoming quarterly figures this Thursday as a possible price driver for the sector.

Mediamarkt parent company Ceconomy $CEC (-0,15%)significantly increases turnover and operating profit

• The Mediamarkt and Saturn parent company Ceconomy has achieved a leap in operating profit thanks to a strict cost-cutting program.
• The SDax company increased its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) adjusted for special effects by almost 13 percent to 279 million euros in the three months to the end of December compared to the previous year, as it announced in Düsseldorf on Tuesday.
• Analysts had expected roughly that much.
• Currency and portfolio-adjusted sales increased by almost a tenth to 7.6 billion euros, exceeding the average analyst estimates.
• The Executive Board is sticking to its known targets for the current financial year 2024/25 (until the end of September).
• Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects, Group sales are set to increase "moderately".
• Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) adjusted for special effects, on the other hand, are expected to increase "significantly".
• Last week, rumors of renewed interest from Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com boosted Ceconomy's share price.

• The news agency Bloomberg reported that the Beijing-based company had recently approached the company and had begun to sound out major shareholders of the Düsseldorf-based company with a view to a possible deal, citing people familiar with the matter.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Japan stock exchange holiday

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Visa USD 0.59
• ASML Holding USD 1.59

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:00 DuPont quarterly figures
• 12:30 Humana quarterly figures
• 13:00 Coca-Cola | Marriott International annual results
• No time specified: American International Group | Lyft | Gilead Sciences Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Ceconomy | Tui | Unicredit | AMS-Osram annual results
• 07:10 Norma Group preliminary annual results
• 07:45 Kering annual results
• 08:00 Cancom | BP annual results | Tui PK
• 09:00 Ceconomy analyst conference
• 11:00 Tui AGM | Ceconomy PK
• 19:00 Deutsche Börse | Telekom Austria Annual Results

Economic data

• 07:30 FR: Unemployment rate 4Q PROGNOSE: 7.5% Q3: 7.4%
• 08:00 DE: Domestic tourism December and year 2024
• 11:30 DE: Auction of 2.40% German government bonds maturing in April 2030 (volume EUR 5bn)
• 16:00 US: Fed Chairman Powell, hearing in the Senate Banking Committee
• 18:00 DE: ECB Director Schnabel, participation in IAB panel
• 19:00 Deutsche Börse | Telekom Austria annual results
• 21:30 US: Fed New York President Williams, speech at Pace University Economics Society event

No time specified:

• US: President Donald Trump receives Jordan's King Abdullah II at the White House
• EU: End of the two-day international summit on artificial intelligence, Paris

$TUI1 (+2,09%)

The major hurdle of €8 has been overcome. If the figures are correct in 1 week, there will be a further increase, the short sellers will have to buy more and this will drive the price even higher.

26.11.2024

BICO with poor quarterly figures + Trump's tariff threats weigh on stock markets + Tui wants to further reduce debt and invest

BICO Group
$BICO (-1,18%) delivers very poor quarterly figures

• Net sales amounted to SEK 495.5 million (587.6), which corresponds to a decline of -15.7% compared to the same quarter last year.
• Organic sales growth for the quarter amounted to -12.6% (16.7%). From Q1 2024, BICO reports all organic growth figures in constant currency
• The gross margin amounted to 53.1% (52.8%). As of Q1 2024, BICO has switched to functional reporting and the comparative figures have been adjusted
• Adjusted EBITDA amounted to SEK 39.6 million (94.7), which corresponds to a margin of 8.0% (16.1%)
• EBITDA amounted to SEK 37.0 M (89.5), which corresponds to a margin of 7.5% (15.2%).
• Net profit/loss for the quarter from continuing operations amounted to SEK -247.5 M (-40.1), which corresponds to earnings per share from continuing operations before and after dilution of SEK -3.49 (-0.57)
• Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK 45.0 million (3.6)

On his first day in office, US President-elect Donald Trump intends to impose high import tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada as well as additional tariffs on goods from China. This will be one of his first executive orders on January 20, Trump explained on the Truth Social platform, which he co-founded.

Tariffs of 25 percent are to apply to goods from Mexico and Canada. The US President-elect justified this with immigrants who bring crime and drugs across these two borders into the USA. Until this stops, the tariffs should remain in force. Both Canada and Mexico have the power to solve the problem. "We hereby call on them to use their power, and until they do, it's time for them to pay a very high price," Trump explained. Additional tariffs of ten percent are to apply to goods from China. Trump also justified this with the fact that drugs such as the deadly fentanyl were entering the USA from the country. Although China has announced that it will take action against this, it has not done so. US President Joe Biden, who is still in office, met China's head of state Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Community (Apec) summit in the Peruvian capital Lima just over a week ago. Xi had assured Biden there that he also wanted to work together with the future US administration under Trump.

With the share price of TUI $TUI1 (+2,09%) Sebastian Ebel is not satisfied. However, the Tui CEO will not be boosting the share price with a dividend payment for the time being; his focus in the use of free cash flow is on investments and debt reduction. "Our goal is to reduce our net leverage to well below 1x. When we present our figures for the financial year in December, you will see that we have already taken a big step towards this goal," Ebel told the Börsen-Zeitung. The rating has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. "These components are the basis for formulating a sustainable dividend policy, which is an entrepreneurial decision that we will make in due course," said Ebel. (Börsen-Zeitung)

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Johnson & Johnson USD 1.24

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

13:00 Analog Devices quarterly figures

13:30 Abercrombie & Fitch quarterly figures

22:30 HP Inc quarterly figures

No time specified: Dell | Best Buy | Autodesk | Macy's Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Siemens Healthineers detailed annual results and annual report

Untimed: Stratec - Analyst conference on the occasion of the German Equity Forum

Economic data

• 11:00 FI: ECB Governing Council member Rehn, hearing in the parliament's economic committee
• 15:00 US: FHFA House Price Index 9/24
• 16:00 US: Consumer Confidence Index November PROGNOSIS: 113.0 previous: 108.7
• 16:00 US: New Home Sales October FORECAST: -2.4% yoy previous: +4.1% yoy
• 20:00 US: Fed, minutes of the FOMC meeting, November 6 and 7

$SOL (-0,55%)

Sometimes you also need luck 🍀:

On New Year's Eve 2022, I opened a new securities account with Finanzen.zero because I was curious about the shares that were given as a gift (you can always try it).

As a condition, I had to deposit €100. Done, done.

The gift share was a $TUI1 (+2,09%) TUI share for around €3.30. Disappointed, I sold the share and put the €100 into Solana. Let's see what happens, you can't do anything with the €100 anyway.

I also had €50 left on TR and put it into Solana at the same time.

With the 150€ investment I am now 1500% in profit. I currently have around 2500€ in Solana, which is by far my best coin in terms of percentage profit.

🙂