Postos
123This week, we have once again included some titles in our simulation game. At the suggestion of @serkeftin to prepare for Donald Trump's tariff announcements and have reduced our call money position and added short warrants with a 4 - 5 leverage for $VOW (-1,2%) , $MBG (-3,17%) , $P911 (-0,51%) , $BMW (-2,69%) . We are hoping for good returns with a higher risk in a short period of one week.
Do you have any comments or suggestions for the coming weeks?
- 14 positive surprises
- Three negative surprises
- Dividend increases
- Dividend decreases
- Overview of all DAX stocks
Link:
$ALV (-4,19%)
$MUV2 (-3,19%)
$RHM (-1,86%)
$MBG (-3,17%)
$SAP (-1,63%)
$BMW (-2,69%)
$AIR (-4,3%)
$VOW (-2,95%)
$DBK (-9,17%)
$CBK (-6,71%)
$SIE (-3,66%)
$P911 (-0,51%)
$DTE (-2,89%)
$IFX (-6,15%)
Trump tariffs burden German car manufacturersDonald Trump's announcement to impose tariffs of 25 percent on car imports to the USA is causing great concern in the German automotive industry. Companies such as Volkswagen $VOW3 (-2,86%)BMW $BMW (-2,69%) and Mercedes $MBG (-3,17%) in particular must be prepared for considerable consequences. These new tariffs particularly affect vehicles imported into the USA from Europe. Fortunately, cars produced in the USA will be spared these additional duties. Nevertheless, the pressure on German manufacturers will increase as they will have to adjust their prices in order to remain competitive. Uncertainty over future trade relations between the USA and Europe remains a crucial issue for car manufacturers.
Von der Leyen stands up for EU workersIn the current situation, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has clearly positioned herself and emphasized that the EU must stand together as a major trading power to protect the interests of its workers, companies and consumers. In view of the new tariffs, it is important that the EU stands united in order to minimize any negative impact on the European economy. EU Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič had recently held talks in Washington to avert the punitive tariffs, but without success. The challenges for the automotive industry, especially in Germany, are palpable and the coming months will be crucial in finding solutions. If the EU does not act together, the economic consequences could be even more serious than they already are.
Sources:
As a member of the audience at this year's BMW Group analyst conference ($BMW (-2,69%) ), I was able to gain some interesting insights that I would like to share with you.
I am only summarizing the analysts' Q&A session here, as I found it very informative.
Patrick Hummel from UBS opened with two questions. The first was about the capital allocation. He praised the increase in the payout ratio for 2024, but asked for more specific details on the planned share buyback program beyond the EUR 1 billion per year already approved and why no further increase in the payout ratio was decided.
Mr. Mertl explained that the dividend policy is in the corridor of 30% to 40% of profit and that the current payout ratio is the highest ever used, supplemented by optional share buybacks. With regard to share buybacks, he assured that a new program would only be launched following approval by the Annual General Meeting and that details of the volume would be announced in good time. On the free cash flowwhich is forecast to exceed EUR 5 billion in 2025, he explained that this represents the limit for distributions and that the dividend for 2025 will be announced next year.
Mr. Hummel's second question concerned the announced announced departure of Frank Weberthe Chief Development Officer, shortly before the launch of the NEUE KLASSE. Mr. Zipse emphasized that this step had been planned for the long term and that the timing was perfect, as the main development of the NEUE KLASSE had been completed and the focus was now on the market launch. He was very confident about the cooperation with the new Chief Development Officer Joachim Post and Nicolai Martin.
Next up was José Asumendi from JPMorgan asked three questions. The first was addressed to Mr. Goller on the the change in the competitive environment in China and the planned product innovations for 2025. Mr. Goller referred to the global strength of the BMW Group, which can compensate for regional volatilities. He confirmed that the increasing market share of Chinese manufacturers in the domestic market was expected. Nevertheless, the Chinese market remains enormous with around 25 million units per year. BMW is responding to this with a restructuring of the dealer network and a model offensive with ten new models in China this year and a further 20 in 2026 and 2027. He expressed confidence in stabilizing business in China and achieving growth again with the new models. As an example, he cited the promising start of orders for the new China X3 with a long wheelbase.
Mr. Asumendi's second question to Mr. Mertl concerned the margin guidance for 2025 and the expectations for the Chinese market in view of the decline in sales and the brake recall in 2024. Mr. Mertl explained that the forecast assumes a stable stable development in China in the first and second quarters, comparable to the fourth quarter of 2024. The adjustment of the guidance in September 2024 was due to the IBS issue and unexpected market dynamics.
The third question to Mr. Zipse focused on the IBS recall and the lessons learned with regard to quality control and supplier relationships. Mr. Zipse emphasized that despite the problem, there were no safety-related impairments for customer vehicles. The rapid response to the problem and the increased transparency in the supplier landscape were strengths of BMW. He assured that quality continues to have top priority.
Tim Rokossa from Deutsche Bank also had two questions. The first was again about the margin guidance. He noted that BMW had said little about cost-cutting measures compared to competitors and asked about the impact of potential new tariffs and the situation in China on margins. Mr. Mertl referred to the forecast shown, where the tariffs already factored in were listed in detail, which would reduce the EBIT margin by around 1%. Without these tariffs, the guidance would be 6% to 8%. He emphasized that BMW is continuously working on cost efficiency efficiency in all areas and that 2024 will be the peak year for R&D, CapEx and operating costs. had been. He promised a turnaround in operating costs in the coming quarters. On the margin development over the course of the year no quarterly guidance was given, but Mr. Mertl indicated that the start could possibly be somewhat more restrained, as the annual guidance was lower than in the previous year.
Mr. Rokossa's second question to Mr. Zipse concerned the future of BMW's future in an increasingly fragmented worldespecially with regard to the current strength of local production. Mr. Zipse emphasized the resilience of BMW through technological openness, its global presence with local production facilities (local-for-local approach) and its innovation leadership, particularly through the "NEW CLASS". He pointed out that, for example, 50% of the US sales volume is produced locally and is therefore not affected by customs duties. The "NEW CLASS" will set a new standard in terms of reach, user experience and digital performance.
Stephen Reitman from Bernstein asked questions about the speed of introduction of the "NEUE KLASSE"the production ramp-up in Debrecen and Munich and the development of R&D costs (capitalization vs. amortization).
Mr. Goller explained that the market launch of the "NEUE KLASSE" will be rapid, as it is a complete family of vehicles. Production and the first launch of the iX3 will start at the end of the year, and six "NEW CLASS" models will be available worldwide within just two years, starting in Europe and then in the USA and China. Mr. Zipse added that the "NEW CLASS" would form the basis for 40 new or revised models by 2027 and the technology clusters would be used in many other vehicles within two years. Mr. Mertl explained that both the R&D and investment expenditure in 2025 compared to 2024 significantly and the capitalization ratio will remain essentially the same, which will have a positive impact on free cash flow.
Mr. Reitman's second question concerned communication with political decision-makers in the USA regarding the impact of tariffs on business and employment, particularly with regard to the plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina. Mr. Zipse referred to the investments already made and planned in the U.S. totaling $16 billion, which would make BMW a local player and reduce its vulnerability to tariffs.
Horst Schneider from Bank of America focused his questions on the pricing of the NEUE KLASSE and the general price expectations for 2025 and the passing on of customs duties to customers. Mr. Mertl emphasized that pricing is different in the various markets and depends on the respective market potential. With regard to the average revenue per unit for 2025, BMW expects a level that corresponds to that of 2024. Regarding the passing on of US tariffs, Mr. Goller explained that there had been price protection for customers for vehicles already ordered. The long-term strategy would depend on the further development of the tariff situation.
Michael Punzet from DZ Bank asked for a clarification on an alleged provision of 1 billion euros for customs duties and the possibilities, to offset US import duties with exports from the USA. Mr. Mertl clarified that no provision for customs duties had had been made. The EUR 1 billion mentioned was merely a classification of the potential impact of the aforementioned tariffs. With regard to compensation, he explained that exports from Spartanburg to other regions of the world were not affected by US import duties according to current knowledge. For imports to the USA, BMW is examining various options such as adjusting supply chains and the product mix as well as a possible increase in production in Spartanburg.
In conclusion Daniel Schwarz from Stifel asked questions about cash allocation. He pointed out that although the highest payout ratio was a signal, the absolute dividend had fallen year-on-year. He asked whether BMW would focus less on the payout ratio in future and more on the absolute dividend, even if this could occasionally exceed 40%.
Mr. Mertl emphasized that the principles of cash allocation (dividend in the corridor and optional share buybacks) had not changed. However, he pointed out that this year's payout ratio was the highest and that, including share buybacks, the distributions for 2024 would be close to 100% of the free cash flow and that the 40% mark would also be exceeded for 2023. On the second question about the guarantee provisions in the fourth quarter Mr. Mertl explained that there had been an extraordinary increase in provisions in the fourth quarter of 2023, which had not occurred in this form in the fourth quarter of 2024, which had led to the impression of lower provisions.
The capital allocation and the margin development remained key topics for the analysts. BMW emphasized its strategic flexibility, global orientation with local production sites and continuous efforts to improve cost efficiency and quality. The effects of customs duties were discussed transparently and taken into account in the guidance. Overall, the conference gave the impression that BMW is optimistic about the future and wants to further strengthen its position in global competition.
I hope you found this summary of the analyst conference interesting!
At 53 billion euros, the 40 DAX companies are likely to pay out almost one billion euros more this year than a year ago - more than ever before.
The reason for the strong development is high consolidated profits and unexpectedly rising dividends at a good dozen companies, including $ALV (-4,19%) Allianz, $MUV2 (-3,19%) Munich Re and $RHM (-1,86%) Rheinmetall.
At 109 billion euros net profit, the DAX companies are likely to have earned as much in 2024 as in the previous year, according to Handelsblatt calculations. Slump in earnings for the three car manufacturers $BMW (-2,69%) BMW, $MBG (-3,17%) Mercedes and $VOW (-2,95%) VW will be offset by companies in other sectors, in particular the major insurers Allianz, Munich Re and $HNR1 (-2,48%) Hannover Re, but also $DTE (-2,89%) Deutsche Telekom, $HEN (-0,26%) Henkel and $EOAN (-0,51%) Eon.
More than a dozen DAX companies have announced higher dividends than the market had previously expected. For example $ALV (-4,19%) 15.40 euros per share after 13.80 euros in the previous year. Analysts had forecast just under 15 euros. The insurer is thus distributing just under six billion euros. This is a record in the German corporate landscape.
The biggest jump is at $MUV2 (-3,19%) Munich Re: The reinsurer is increasing its dividend by five euros per share to 20 euros.
The two healthcare specialists $FRE (-1,69%) Fresenius and $FME (-2,17%) Fresenius Medical Care, the brand manufacturer $HEN (-0,26%) Henkel, the automotive supplier $BTR Continental, the $CBK (-6,71%) Commerzbank, $RHM (-1,86%) Rheinmetall and $HNR1 (-2,48%) Hannover Re have raised their dividends, in some cases significantly more than expected. This is also due to rising profits, which justify a higher profit share for shareholders.
The largest dividend payers in the DAX are
Like the car manufacturers, a number of companies in the DAX remain below the usual international payout ratios, including the family-run groups $BEI (+2,39%) Beiersdorf and $MRK (-1,8%) Merck. They pass on less than 30 percent of their profits. This leaves enough of a buffer so that dividends do not have to be reduced immediately in more difficult times.
Germany's most valuable group, $SAP (-1,63%) SAP, with a payout ratio of 85%, is pushing the limit: net profit of 3.1 billion euros in the past year compares with a total dividend payout of 2.7 billion euros. However, the profit was burdened by a one-off effect.
So far, a total of 20 companies have increased their dividends, with only $BAS (-2,73%) BASF and the three car manufacturers. Four companies have yet to do so: $RWE (-1,18%) RWE, $SY1 (+3,89%) Symrise and $VNA (+3,32%) Vonovia are likely to increase their dividends, while analysts expect $PAH3 (-1,76%) analysts expect a reduction at Porsche Holding.
Source (excerpt) & chart: Handelsblatt, 15.03.25
📌 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Although I endeavor to provide accurate and up-to-date information, I do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the content. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making any financial decisions. I am not liable for any loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on my content. I am not a tax advisor. I am not an investment advisor.
Hi folks,
after my last analysis on AT&T was well received, here's a new short presentation today: BMW's figures for Q4 2024! 📊 The final financial figures were published this month. BMW remains one of the world's leading premium carmakers, but 2024 was a challenging year. Let's take a look at the figures.
📌 BMW at a glance
BMW unites the BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce brands and strategically focuses on electrification, digitalization and sustainability. The "New Class", which will be launched in 2025, is set to bring the technical breakthrough for BMW's electric vehicles.
However, 2024 did not go entirely smoothly: declining margins, higher investments and weaker sales figures are weighing on the balance sheet.
📊 Key financial figures & declines
✔ Turnover: EUR 142.38 billion (-8.4% YoY)
✔ Earnings before taxes (EBT): EUR 10.971 billion (-35.8% YoY)
✔ Automotive EBIT margin: 6.3% (2023: 9.8%) ✔ Automotive free cash flow: EUR 4.852 billion (-30.1% YoY)
🔎 Why have profits slumped so sharply?
📌 Higher investments: BMW is pouring massive amounts of money into building the "New Class" and new electric platforms.
📌 Margin pressure in the automotive business: the EBIT margin in the automotive segment fell from 9.8% to 6.3%, partly due to rising material and production costs.
📌 Weaker sales figures: BMW sold -4% fewer cars than in 2023, with MINI (-17.1%) in particular suffering from the market situation.📌 China weakness & market conditions: BMW sees China as an important but challenging market with weaker growth.
📌 Costs for electromobility: BMW is investing heavily in e-cars, but profit margins are still below those of combustion engines.
👉 That could mean: BMW is investing massively in the future, which will put pressure on profits in the short term.
🚗 Sales development & electromobility
✅ Total deliveries: 2.451 million vehicles (-4.0% YoY)
✅ Share of electric cars: 17.4% (strong increase) ✅ Sales of fully electric vehicles (BEVs): +13.5 % YoY
✅ Target by 2030: >50% fully electric models
Despite a decline in sales, BMW was able to increase BEV sales by 13.5 The New Class from 2025 should ensure a 30% higher range and 50% lower CO₂ emissions in production. However, the market remains highly competitive, especially with Tesla and Chinese manufacturers such as BYD.
🏭 BMW's strategy: investment for the future or margin killer?
BMW has high hopes for the "New Class", which will be launched in 2025 with a completely new electric platform. The aim is to make electric cars more profitable and to catch up with combustion engines in terms of range and efficiency.
The strategy is promising in the long term, but the high capital expenditure remains a challenge in the short term.
🚨 Risks: Can BMW possibly hold its own against Tesla & China?
📌 Competitive pressure: Tesla and BYD are lowering prices, while BMW is still working on the profitability of electric cars.
📌 China uncertainty: BMW has lost market share there, a key market with risks.
📌 Raw material prices & supply chains: Rising costs for battery materials and ongoing logistical challenges.
BMW must prove that the transformation can succeed without further margin losses.
🔮 What could be BMW's goals for the future?
📌 Automotive EBIT margin: 8-10% is expected
📌 Share of electric cars: expected to increase further
📌 CO₂ reduction: Target: >40 million tons less CO₂ in the supply chain & use by 2030
The big question: can the New Class bring profitability back or will the business remain under pressure?
📢 Conclusion - What does BMW make of it now?
BMW is facing a strategic change. The transformation to electromobility and digitalization costs money and puts pressure on margins in the short term. In the long term, BMW has the potential to catch up with the New Class - but the competition is strong and there are risks in the short term due to falling profits and the Chinese market.
📊 What do you think of BMW? Is the share exciting for you or would you rather wait and see?
👍 - BMW interesting in the long term
😐 - Watch for now
👎 - Too many risks
Let me know in the comments!
(1) BMW Group Report 2024 https://www.bmwgroup.com/en/investor-relations/company-reports.html
(2) BMW Investor Presentation https://www.bmwgroup.com/en/investor-relations/company-reports.html
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/jsEEQ7p900o?si=YxUmTubdAPwHFSPq
Sunday:
Trump announces a strategic crypto reserve, the price of Bitcoin rises again. In addition to Bitcoin and Ether, investments are also to be made in Cardano, Solana and Ripple. 'The USA is to become the crypto capital of the world'
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Trump-kuendigt-strategische-Krypto-Reserve-an-article25599761.html
Monday:
The EU Commission wants to relax the climate targets. The shares of the car manufacturers, $VOW3 (-2,86%) VW, $BMW (-2,69%) BMW and $MBG (-3,17%) Mercedes can rise significantly. The annual targets are to be combined into a compensation period. This would give the car manufacturers more time in case of doubt.
Inflation is falling slightly less than expected. In February, inflation in the eurozone was 2.4%. The expected figure was 2.3%, compared with 2.5% in January. The next interest rate cut is expected on Thursday.
Wednesday:
Sales at$BAYN (-0,64%) Bayer stagnated in 2024, EBITDA fell by 22%. However, things are expected to pick up again in 2026. The bottom line was a loss of 2.55 billion euros. Shareholders will receive a dividend of 0.11 euros per share. Bayer had already cut the dividend to the minimum last year in order to reduce debt. A dividend is to be paid again from 2027. On Friday, it was announced that the company plans to seek approval for the possibility of a capital increase at the AGM.
The economic data from the USA is better than expected. The purchasing managers' index in particular is above expectations. However, there is much to suggest that prices will continue to rise. The order situation and employment are also improving compared to the previous month.
https://finanzmarktwelt.de/usa-ism-index-service-2-341270/
Thursday:
$DHLGY (-4,17%) DHL cuts 8,000 jobs in the mail and parcel business after poor figures. Earnings per share fell from 3.09 to 2.86 euros. The dividend is to be kept stable at 1.85 euros per share. The revenue forecast, which was lowered in the fall, was exceeded.
Thursday:
No big surprise: the ECB cuts the key interest rate for the 6th time to 2.5%. However, the debate about further interest rate cuts becomes more heated. A pause in interest rates is likely to come at the latest at an interest rate of 1.75%.
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/EZB-senkt-Leitzins-zum-sechsten-Mal-seit-Sommer-article25611145.html
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Tuesday: 00:50 GDP figures (Japan)
Wednesday: 13:30 Inflation data (USA)
Thursday: 13:30 Producer prices (USA)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇
The EU Commission wants to make it easier for European car manufacturers to meet the climate targets for 2025. This was announced by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) at a press conference on Monday. She had previously met with industry representatives in Brussels to discuss the current situation in the industry.
The solution is to be a so-called "quick fix" for the industry, which is to be presented as early as this month. According to this, the CO2 targets for 2025, 2026 and 2027 are to be combined into one compensation period. Achieving the targets on an annual basis is therefore off the table.
This caused a clear market reaction on the stock exchange. Shares in German car manufacturers benefited in particular, all of which rose by more than two percent. The shares of $DTG (-4,89%) Daimler Truck and $VOW (-2,95%) Volkswagen rose the most, each by more than five percent. Also $BMW (-2,69%) BMW, $MBG (-3,17%) Mercedes Benz and $P911 (-0,51%) Porsche also participated with rising share prices.
On Wednesday, von der Leyen will officially present the action plan for the automotive industry, which was jointly developed in the Strategic Dialogue and will include further measures such as the expansion of the charging infrastructure. In addition, money is to be made available for a social leasing program via the Climate Social Fund.
Source (excerpt): Handelsblatt, 03.03.25 | Graphic: ChatGPT
Hi folks,
I have just $VOW (-2,95%) , $MBG (-3,17%) and $BMW (-2,69%) regarding cash flow here on getquin. I noticed that they are in the red. Last year they were still in the black, all several billion euros. What does that mean?
