Yesterday I also added $DOW (+5,08%) to my Blue Chip Fibonacci Portfolio.

The price is currently below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, perfect for opening a long position.

I find Dow particularly interesting as a materials and specialty chemicals company. Its products are used across a wide range of industries, including packaging, construction, infrastructure, consumer goods, and manufacturing. As a result, Dow is closely tied to global economic activity and can benefit from stronger industrial demand over time.

The stock also offers an attractive dividend yield, which provides an additional layer of potential return while waiting for the investment thesis to develop. Of course, the chemicals sector is cyclical, but that cyclicality can also create opportunities when quality companies trade at discounted valuations.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this position performs over the coming months and years.

The market will determine the outcome. My job is to stay disciplined, manage risk, and follow the strategy.

#trading
#long
#tradingstrategy
#bluechipstocks
#bluechipfibonacci
#dow
#stocks #chemicals
#materials
#usa
#mikeupegui

Dear getquin Community,

since my last post, I thought it’s time for a quick (and honest) update — including a few lessons learned and probably a few mistakes repeated 😉

What I’ve been up to:

1. Doubling down on conviction (yes, still doing it)

I continued to lean into my “conviction” plays and added to positions during drawdowns, including:

• Mining:
  $RIO (-4,62%) / $BHP (-4,73%) / $VALE3 (-4,67%) / $ABX (-5,51%)
• 
  Health-Care:
  $PFE (+1,97%) / $BMY (+3,45%) / $NOVO B (+1%)
• 
  Others:
  $INTC (-8,5%) / $ADM (+0,39%) / $PETR3 (-0,68%)

All of them went through pretty painful drawdowns along the way (nothing new here…).

Interestingly, most of them are now back in solid positive territory — with the notable exception of Novo Nordisk. 👉 Not sure yet if this validates my approach… or just means I got lucky this time.

2. Playing cycles (trying at least)

I’ve also started to lean more into sector rotation / cycle investing:

• Utilities ($RWE (-1,59%) / $ENGI (+1,74%) / $ENEL (-0,31%)) in 2025 — when everything seemed to be about AI and they felt ignored
• Chemicals ($LYB (+3,23%) / $DOW (+5,08%) / $BNR) (-0,64%) in early 2026 — when the market mood felt close to “pricing for insolvency”

So far, this feels more like investing and less like reacting — but let’s see how it plays out over a full cycle. Thinking about consumer discretionary 🧐right now (e.g. $GIS (+8,18%) / $NESN) 👉 What are your thoughts on this?

3. Dividend psychology (my personal “hack”)

I’ve realized I genuinely enjoy dividend-paying stocks.

Not because the amounts are huge (they’re not 😄), but because:

• those small push notifications on the phone
• create a feeling of “progress”
• and somehow keep me invested when prices go down

It’s probably a bit of a mental trick:

“At least the dividend is coming in…”

Not fully rational — but surprisingly effective for me.

🤔 Where I’m struggling

1. Bonds (especially USD)

I increased my bond exposure — particularly USD-denominated bonds.

So far:

• price performance → mostly negative
• total return → slightly cushioned by coupons

Feels like a patience game right now… but definitely not (yet) a success story.

2. Too many positions (yes… still)

I’ll keep this short because I already know the answer:

👉 I own too many positions.

Reasons:

• too many podcasts
• too many “interesting ideas”
• too little discipline

At this point I’m seriously considering:

stopping input… and letting a few savings plans just run in the background

🧠 A bit of self-reflection

One thing I’m increasingly aware of:

• I like being contrarian
• I like buying into weakness
• I really like doubling down

But I’m also starting to realize:

There’s a thin line between conviction… and just being stubborn. Or more bluntly:

Am I exploiting inefficiencies — or just becoming a well-diversified bagholder?

Still working on that one.

🙌 Final thoughts

As always:

• happy to get feedback
• roast me wherever you see fit
• especially on position sizing, bonds, and my “doubling down” habits

Stay invested, stay healthy, and enjoy the Easter holidays 🐣

Best regards,

Markus

$DOW (+5,08%)
$KVUE (+3,83%)
$KSPI (-2,64%)