What did I take with me?

It is not a crisis because >\=20% down but a good entry into tranches.

Which stocks were discussed?

$P911 (-0,52%) Unfortunately I've been in Porsche since 2023, when luxury comes back, the Chinese will buy Porsche and not locally

$ABX (+3,09%) and $NEM (+4,37%) Barrick and Newmont buy the shovels not the gold. Gold is for value preservation, not for speculation. I was invested in mines decades ago.

$MC (+1,6%) LVMH surprised me, I thought the air was out, will have a look.

$META (+4,43%) I finally understood how Facebook makes money. There's still a lot to come. First purchase?

$GOOGL (+2,72%) Yes, I've been adding to my portfolio since 25.

$H1PE34 Hewlett Packard Enterprise, I only knew it as a hardware manufacturer, here is the shovel for AI Ai chips.

$9988 (-0,7%) and $9888 (+0,37%) Chinese Baidu and Alibaba. I also had it 10 years ago, after the high it went down bloody. But will probably be seen again as a turnaround and cash flow for 2025.

$TTD (+4,02%) I was not aware of Trade Desk until today.

$22U Biontech became known as a corona profiteer, but is looking for the cancer vaccine.

These 10 stocks were discussed as stronger buys on the spot.

Which stocks are of interest to you, or where are you buying now?

The year to date shows that excessive dependency harbors risks. Increasing political uncertainty and high valuations are prompting many investors to look for alternatives. Europe and Asia offer exciting companies that are often valued more favorably and have great long-term potential.

Strong European alternatives for your portfolio:

Adyen $ADYEN (+5,7%) is a leading payment service provider that is benefiting from increasing digitalization. After a difficult year, the company could get back on track.

Schneider Electric $SU (+1,96%) from France is a key player in energy and automation technology and is benefiting from electrification and the growing focus on sustainability.

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-0,2%) a classic and dominates the market for diabetes and obesity medication. The strong demand for Wegovy and Co. ensures continuous growth.

ASML $ASML (+2,87%) is indispensable for the chip industry. Without ASML's machines, there would be no modern semiconductors. A real growth stock for the future.

Lotus Bakeries $LOTB (+2,69%) is growing worldwide with its popular Biscoff cookies. The expansion into new markets makes the company exciting for long-term investors. More on this in one of my last posts.

Exciting stocks from Asia:

Tokyo Electron $8035 (+6,38%) is one of the most important suppliers to the semiconductor industry and is benefiting from the global chip boom.

Alibaba $9988 (-0,7%) remains an e-commerce and cloud giant with long-term potential despite regulatory challenges.

Fast Retailing $9983 (+4,12%) (Uniqlo) is growing strongly in Asia and could establish itself as a global fashion brand.

The MSCI World ex USA as an alternative for passive investors:

If you want to reduce your US share but do not want to invest in individual stocks, you can use an ETF on the MSCI World ex USA as an alternative. Regular purchases via a savings plan can gradually dilute the US share in the portfolio.

What is your current US share? Are you planning to reallocate or are you still heavily invested in the USA?

#etfs
#stockanalysis
#tech
#dividends
#growth
#usa
#eu
#asien

How do you deal with China shares?

Does it make sense to buy or should you stay away from individual positions and rather invest in the market via an ETF?

I'm in the process of reading up on the subject and am finding it a bit difficult. 🙈

I'm interested in the specific example of Alibaba and what you would rather buy, $BABA (-0,46%) or $9988 (-0,7%) and why?

What do you think about ADR? (Advantages and disadvantages).

I am interested in the opinions of those who have already had experience with it.

Looking forward to your opinions! 😊

If you don't want to read the report...below is a short summary

1. the US labor market and the risk of recession

The US economy is in a precarious phase. The S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day line for the first time since October 2023. Even more critical is the price ratio of the S&P 500 to US Treasuries ($TLT)which is once again at the 200DMA line, essentially a support level that has served as a psychological barrier against a bear market since December 2020 (Chart 2). The most recent Februar-Payroll-Daten with 151k new jobs was right in the middle of nowhere. A jobs report of over 200k would have been a strong reading and would have indicated that the US economy is robust enough to withstand higher interest rates. Stock markets would have stabilized as there was no imminent threat of recession; a report of 125k would have been a weak reading and would have indicated a cooling economy and falling corporate profits. The market would have slipped into a bear market phase, while bonds would have benefited as a safe haven.151k jobs lie exactly between these thresholds and offer no clear basis for interpretation.

Another alarming signal comes from the ratio of US consumer discretionary stocks to Staples stockswhich has reached an all-time high (Chart 5). For decades, this ratio has been a reliable early indicator of an imminent weak phase for the S&P 500. You could say that the USA is one payroll report away from a recession. The background to this is the dwindling influence of government job subsidies: In January 2025, the following 70% des Arbeitsmarktwachstums came from the public sector, a significant decline from 85% in the previous year. At the same time, the household savings rate is rising.

2 Global military spending: Europe in a fiscal dilemma

Germany's military expenditure amounts to only 7% of US spending, the United Kingdom reaches 8% (Charts 6 and 7). This explains why European budget deficits are exploding: For Germany, an average deficit of -4% of GDP is forecast for Germany for the period 2025-2030 (Chart 9). The "Whatever-it-takes" policy on Merz is driving the yields of German Bundesanleihen to over 3% (15-year high) and British Gilts to over 5,5% (27-year high).

German Bund yields could overtake US Treasuries this year (Chart 3).

3. flight to safety, exodus at risk

• $965515 (+0,68%) recorded the largest 4-week inflow of all time (USD 9.9 bn, chart 12). Gold is seen as a safe haven as investors seek hedges in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and looming recessions.

• Crypto funds experienced a record outflow of USD 3.6 billion (Chart 13), the largest since records began. Volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum and regulatory concerns are deterring institutional investors.

• Infrastructure funds recorded the largest outflow of all time (USD 0.9 bn, Chart 15) as rising interest rates weigh on the valuation of long-term projects.

• European equities saw the strongest 4-week inflow since August 2015 (USD 12 bn, chart 14). The drivers are the relatively low valuations and the focus on European industrial companies and banks.

• Emerging markets saw the largest inflow in three months (USD 2.4 bn), supported by China's tech revival and India's reform momentum.

• TIPS saw an 8-week inflow streak, the longest since December 2021, as investors want to be prepared for potential stagflation.

4 AI shock and tech

The DeepSeek AI shock has rearranged the tech bubble. The Magnificent 7 ($AAPL (+4,35%) , $MSFT (+3,44%) , $NVDA (+6,99%) , $AMZN (+3,58%) , $GOOGL (+2,72%) , $META (+4,43%) ) lost 3 trillion USD in market capitalization and are now known as the Lagnificent 7 are mocked. At the same time, the market capitalization of China's BATX ($9888 (+0,37%) , $9988 (-0,7%) , $700 (+2,46%) , $1810 (+6,8%)) to 1.6 trillion USDa sign that Chinese companies are catching up in the AI sector.

This shift is also reflected in the US-ISM-Manufacturing-PMI-Daten (Charts 10 & 11): The recent rise to 55 points is seen as tariff frontrunning interpreted. Companies stocked up their inventories ahead of time in order to circumvent expected trade barriers (e.g. new US tariffs on Chinese semiconductors). However, this short-term upswing masks structural weaknesses: The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio (Chart 11) points to an imminent slowdown in industrial activity. The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio compares the performance of cyclical stocks (industrials, commodities, consumer goods) with that of defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples). Basically serves as a leading indicator for economic expectations.

5. forecasts 2025: strategic decisions

Recommendation: Buy 30YUST with a yield target of below 4%. Reasons:

• The US government is ending its 5-year phase of excessive spending, leading to a decline in demand.
• 70% of job growth in January 2025 came from the public sector, a sign of private sector weakness.

At the same time, one can UK Gilts & EU bonds can be classified as sell candidates. The yields of UK gilts are at 5,5% (27-year high), driven by the cost of rearmament and a budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP.

Equities: Europe and China in focus

• European markets: The DAX (+18% YTD) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (+13% YTD) are benefiting from undervalued industrial companies and banks. Despite a net outflow of USD 255 bn since 2022 flowed for the first time in the last 4 weeks 4 bn USD returned for the first time, a good sign.

• China: H-shares (+23% YTD) are attracting capital as Chinese tech companies benefit from the AI revolution and government subsidies.

• India: Small caps are 21% below their September 2024 high (Chart 4), but offer long-term opportunities in the context of the Make in India Initiative

Weak dollar, strong exporters

A weak US dollar favors European and Chinese exporters. At the same time US semiconductors could experience a recovery: The equal-weighted Semiconductor Index($esox) has 73% of its gains since the ChatGPT hype in May 2023. The tech sector also saw an inflow for the first time in 5 weeks (USD 2.6bn).

6. trouble spots: Japan and the ticking debt bomb

The 30-jährigen JGB-Renditen are quoted at 2,5% (17-year high), while the Bank of Japan with a key interest rate of 0,5% well behind the wage growth (5-6%) is lagging behind wage growth. Should the BoJ tighten its policy in order to regain credibility, there is a risk of a Nikkei Sell Offsimilar to the in August 2024when the yen appreciated sharply and Carry-Trades collapsed. If it fails to act, the weakness of the yen could push up import costs further and exacerbate stagflation.

7. summary 2025

2025 will be dominated by three megatrends:

• Long-dated US Treasuries and gold serve as protection against recession and stagflation.
• Europe and China take advantage of the weakness of the US dollar and technological upheavals.
• Japan's debt crisis, Europe's fiscal overheating and the fragility of the US labor market.

• Buy: European industrial stocks ($SIE (+3,05%) , $ASML (+2,87%) ), China's BATX, 30-year US Treasuries, gold.
• Dont's: UK/EU bonds, crypto, infrastructure funds.
• Wacth: BoJ policy, US payroll data, Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

MercadoLibre ($MELI (+7,47%) ) is the undisputed market leader for e-commerce and FinTech in Latin America. Often referred to as the "Amazon of South America", the company dominates with its marketplace, digital payment services and its own logistics infrastructure. But after years of growth and a correction, the question arises: Can MercadoLibre take off again in 2025?

🚀 The MercadoLibre business model

✅ MercadoLibre (e-commerce): The largest online marketplace in Latin America with strong growth. In 2024, sales increased by 20%which shows the continuing demand.

✅ Mercado Pago (FinTech): One of the leading digital payment platforms in the region, used both online and in brick-and-mortar retail.

✅ Mercado Envios (logistics): Own logistics network for faster and more efficient delivery - a major advantage over Amazon.

✅ Mercado Credito (Lending): Enables buyers and sellers to access credit and expands the business model in the direction of FinTech.

Thanks to this broad diversification MercadoLibre is not only an e-commerce company, but also a FinTech and logistics player with strong growth potential.

🏆 Competition - Who can be a threat to MercadoLibre?

🔸 Amazon $AMZN (+3,58%)
: Global giant, but with lower market penetration in Latin America.

🔸 Sea Limited (Shopee) $SE: (+3,93%) An emerging threat in e-commerce, especially in Brazil.

🔸 Nubank & StoneCo $NU (+7,55%)
: Strong FinTech competitors entering the payments market.

🔸 Alibaba (AliExpress) $9988 (-0,7%)
: Focuses on low-cost imported products - but without its own logistics in the region.

Despite tough competition, MercadoLibre remains the market leader - mainly due to its logistics network, which Amazon and Shopee do not yet offer at this level in Latin America.

📈 Growth potential: why MercadoLibre could take off in 2025

✅ E-commerce boom: Online retail in Latin America continues to grow. Annual growth of 15% is expected until 2026 (Statista).

✅ Digitalization:
In 2024, internet usage in Latin America increased by 8%which creates the basis for further growth in online retail and digital financial services.

✅ Logistics advantage: MercadoLibre has acquired Mercado Envios an infrastructure that dominates the market.

✅ FinTech growth: With Mercado Pago and Mercado Credito the company is developing into a kind of "PayPal $PYPL (+3,5%)
& Klarna of Latin America".

✅ Latin America as a growth market: While markets such as the USA and Europe are more mature, Latin America still offers still offers enormous potential for increasing online purchases.

⚠️ Risks: What are the challenges?

⚠️ Currency risks: The High inflation and currency fluctuations in countries such as Brazil or Argentina could depress profits.

⚠️ Fierce competition: Shopee in Brazil in particular is putting MercadoLibre under pressure.

⚠️ Regulations: Political uncertainties and possible new regulations for digital financial services could slow down growth.

⚠️ Rising financing costs:
Mercado Credito is growing, but higher interest rates could weigh on the lending business.

📊 Conclusion: turnaround candidate for 2025?

MercadoLibre remains the dominant player in Latin America and is benefiting from growing digitalization and rising e-commerce sales. Despite currency risks and competition the company has strong growth driversthat make it interesting in the long term.

🔥 Turnaround candidate or long-term winner? What do you think - will MercadoLibre remain number 1 or will the competition catch up?

Grab Holdings ($GRAB (+12,8%) ) is the leading provider of ride-hailing, food delivery and digital financial services in Southeast Asia. With a wide range of services, the company has established itself as a "super app" and has become an essential part of daily life in many Southeast Asian countries. However, after strong growth and an IPO, the stock has gone through a difficult phase - but is Grab on track to become a turnaround story in 2025?

Overview: What does Grab do?

Grab is active in several business areas:

✅ Ride-hailing: Grab is the market leader in the ride-hailing sector and competes with Uber in Southeast Asia. In addition to passenger transportation, Grab also offers delivery services for parcels.

✅ Food delivery (GrabFood)With GrabFood, the company has a strong position in the food delivery business, especially in cities such as Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia. The business is growing steadily, especially during the pandemic.

✅ GrabPay and financial servicesGrab has also positioned itself in digital financial services, with GrabPay, a mobile payment platform, and a range of loans and insurance for its customers.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Gojek (now part of Tokopedia) $GOTO : The biggest competitor in the ride-hailing and food delivery industry in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian markets.

🔸 Uber $UBER (+4,77%) Also active in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Philippines and Vietnam. Uber continues to be a significant competitor in the ride-hailing segment.

Correction: Uber is no longer directly active, but rather an indirect beneficiary of Grab's development through its shareholding..

🔸 Foodpanda $DHER (+9,22%) : A strong competitor in the food delivery sector in several countries, including Grab's main markets.

🔸 Ant Group (Alipay)
$9988 (-0,7%) and PayPal $PYPL (+3,5%) competitors in the field of digital payments and FinTech services.

Opportunities: Why could Grab make a comeback in 2025?

✅ Leading market position: Grab is well established in Southeast Asia, with a broad user base and a strong brand. This position could protect the company in the long term.

✅ Expansion potential in the FinTech sector: GrabPay and other financial services continue to be a valuable source of revenue. Grab could further expand its FinTech business as the region continues to offer great potential for digital payments and banking services.

✅ Growth in the food delivery business: The trend towards online delivery services continues to grow. GrabFood could gain even more market share, especially through partnerships with local restaurants and expanded services.

✅ Synergies from the super app strategy: Grab offers not only transportation and delivery, but also financial services and entertainment. This integration of services creates a strong ecosystem for users and partners.

Risks: What could continue to burden Grab?

⚠️ Strong competition: There are already strong local and international competitors in financial services.

⚠️ High losses and high expensesGrab has repeatedly made losses in the past. Sustainable growth and a return to profitability remain a major challenge, especially in view of the high operating costs.

⚠️ Regulatory risks: Like many companies in the region, Grab has to deal with changing and strict regulatory requirements, particularly in the FinTech and ride-hailing sectors.

⚠️ Macroeconomic uncertainties: Economic uncertainty in Southeast Asia, ongoing political tensions and the impact of the pandemic could weigh on business.

Conclusion: Can Grab achieve a turnaround?

Grab has the potential to remain a major player in Southeast Asia if it can overcome competitive challenges while increasing growth in its various business segments. Especially the FinTech-expansion and the synergies as a super appcould be decisive in the long term.

For investors who believe in the potential of Southeast Asia and have a long-term perspective, Grab could be an exciting turnaround candidate for 2025.

What do you think? Does Grab have what it takes to make a comeback in 2025 and remain successful in the long term?

JD.com - The Chinese e-commerce giant with potential for 2025?

JD.com ($9618 (+1,88%)) is one of the leading e-commerce providers in China and has established itself as a serious competitor to Alibaba. After struggling with economic challenges and regulatory problems in recent years, the question is: can JD.com regain its former strength in 2025?

Overview: What does JD.com do?

JD.com is a Chinese company that sells a wide range of products through its platform, including electronics, household goods and groceries. It operates both traditional e-commerce retail and an extensive logistics network that enables it to deliver products faster and more efficiently.

✅ JD Mall: The main platform for B2C e-commerce, which has a large market share in China.

✅ JD Logistics: A leading logistics company that also operates for other brands and platforms.

✅ JD Health & JD Digits: Subsidiaries operating in the health and digital services sectors.

✅ Collaborations with Walmart and Google: Global partnerships to expand reach and innovative strength.

JD.com relies on an integrated business modelthat ranges from logistics and cloud services to digital healthcare solutions, which sets the company apart from other competitors.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Alibaba $9988 (-0,7%) (Tmall, Taobao): The largest e-commerce competitor in China with a broader market coverage.

🔸 Pinduoduo $PDD (+2,57%)
: An emerging competitor that has established itself through group buying and low prices.

🔸 Amazon $AMZN (+3,58%)
: Even though Amazon is less dominant in China, it still has a presence in the international market, especially in cloud services.

🔸 Meituan $3690 (+4,7%)
: Another player in online retail and on-demand services, especially in food delivery.

JD.com has the advantage that it has a strong logistics network and a good B2B business However, it continues to be burdened by competition and regulatory challenges in China.

Opportunities: Why could JD.com make a comeback in 2025?

✅ Strong growth in logistics and cloud: JD Logistics and JD Cloud offer promising growth opportunities, especially in international business.

✅ Expansion into rural areas: JD.com has a strong presence in rural areas of China and could benefit from broader urbanization and increasing demand.

✅ Resurgent e-commerce market: Despite economic uncertainties, the Chinese e-commerce market is expected to grow in the long term - JD.com could benefit greatly from this.

✅ Innovations in FinTech and healthcare: JD.com has made great strides in FinTech and digital health solutions in recent years. These sectors could provide stable revenues in the future.

✅ Reduced regulatory uncertainty: After years of regulatory challenges, the situation in China could stabilize, making the market attractive for JD.com again.

Risks: What could continue to weigh on JD.com?

⚠️ Regulatory uncertainties: The Chinese state still retains significant influence over the market, and new regulations could weigh on JD.com.

⚠️ Competitive pressure from Alibaba & Pinduoduo: Strong competition from Alibaba and Pinduoduo remains a major challenge.

⚠️ Weak consumption in China: Weak economic recovery and falling consumer spending in China could slow growth.

⚠️ Dependence on B2B: JD.com generates a large proportion of its sales in the B2B sector. A slowdown in this market could affect growth targets.

⚠️ Geopolitical risks: Tensions between China and the West could have a negative impact on business activities, particularly in international trade and cloud services.

Conclusion: turnaround opportunity or value trap?

JD.com has the potential to benefit from the growth areas of logistics, cloud and FinTech in 2025. The company has been through tough times in recent years, but the fundamentals remain strong. If JD.com can maintain its market position in China and successfully expand into new business areas, it could make a remarkable comeback.

What do you think? Can JD.com take off again in 2025 or will it remain under pressure? 🚀

Hi everyone,

should I put my $BABA (-0,46%) into $9988 (-0,7%) (ratio 1 to 8) ?

Have you done this? What are the pros and cons?

Weekly performance +25% - it's about time that the Chinese cracker ignited💣⚡️

$9988 (-0,7%)
$BABA (-0,46%)

$AAPL (+4,35%)
$BABA (-0,46%)
$9988 (-0,7%)

Apple is partnering with Alibaba to develop and roll out AI features for iPhone users in China, The Information reported Tuesday, citing a person with direct knowledge of the decision.

The Cupertino-based company and Alibaba have submitted the Chinese AI functions they co-developed to the Chinese cyberspace regulator for approval, according to the report.

Apple began testing various AI models from Chinese developers in 2023 and selected Baidu as its main partner, the report said, citing two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

However, the collaboration was later terminated because Baidu's progress in developing its models for Apple Intelligence did not meet the US company's standards, the report said.

In recent months, the iPhone maker began to consider other options and reviewed models developed by Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Deepseek, the report added.

Apple ultimately rejected Deepseek's models because the Deepseek team lacked the manpower and experience needed to service a large customer like Apple, the report said.