Hello everyone,

My current portfolio was completely reorganized after the takeover of $COP (-0,63%) at the end/beginning of the year. I have reinvested almost all of the liquidity freed up as a result in small-mid caps. I also see further potential here in the coming years due to more flexible adaptability (with regard to the USA) and financing costs. At the beginning of the year $SESG (-0,78%)
$NA9 (-0,29%)
$TNIE (+0,95%)
$KTN (-1,29%)
$ALCRB (-0,25%)
$DSFIR (-0,42%) made it into my portfolio. Today, I swapped the pipe burner $P911 (+0,35%) in $MUM (+0,16%) . My next idea would be $SIX2 (-0,48%) I would like to hear what else you have on your watchlist in this segment.

Greetings

Micha

Hello everyone, after passing the 200k mark in my overall portfolio a good two months ago, my pure equity/ETF portfolio has now done the same. The driver is by far $PLTR. (-3,33%) Some problem children should of course not be missing in such a portfolio $P911 (+0,35%)
$NKE (-0,48%) . Both should still need a little time for the turnaround.

I will sell in the near future $FRE (+0,18%) to further reduce the DE share. Otherwise, the ETFs will continue to be fed with a savings plan in order to reach the target of > 60% ETF share.

As always, feedback is welcome

The euro has been weakening since September 2024 and is approaching parity with the dollar - the currency ratio would then be one to one. The dollar is currently still worth around 1.04 euros, up seven cents in the fall.

German companies with strong business in the dollar area can benefit from this development in several ways.

"The strength of the dollar is good news for exporting German companies," comment the analysts at Baader Bank. This is because their products are comparatively cheaper in the USA.

A weak euro makes exports cheaper, making European products and services cheaper and more competitive in the dollar area and thus in large parts of America and Asia. Import duties in the USA would make products more expensive again - but in the end, the two effects could almost balance each other out.

For example, the medical technology group Siemens Healthineers $SHL (+0,45%) is hardly worried about the threat of import duties in the USA. The company shares the fear of a global trade war. However, the company expects that the headwind from tariffs and the tailwind from the stronger dollar will largely balance each other out, says CFO Jochen Schmitz.

The tailwind from the strong dollar could remain with companies for a long time to come. "The euro will become a really weak currency. It should quickly fall below parity with the dollar and be at 0.95 euros per dollar quite quickly," expects the well-known fund manager Jens Ehrhardt, founder and CEO of DJE Kapital.

The European Central Bank (ECB) expects the strength of the dollar to ease the burden on exporting companies in the event of possible import tariffs in the USA. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch says: "The euro would have to be brought to parity in order to essentially compensate for a tariff of ten percent."

The many companies that produce locally in the USA and sell their goods there also benefit from a strong dollar. This is because the effect on the balance sheet is even stronger as soon as companies convert their earnings generated in the dollar zone into their home currency. For every dollar earned, there are currently seven euro cents more than in the fall.

Companies are already feeling the effects. For example, Infineon $IFX (-1,86%) raised its forecast for the current financial year a few days ago. Previously, the Munich-based semiconductor manufacturer had assumed a slight decline in turnover. The DAX-listed company now expects stable to slightly increasing revenue in 2024.

One reason is the strength of the dollar. Infineon is now assuming a euro-dollar exchange rate of 1.05 euros this year - after previously assuming 1.10 euros. "This adjustment and the better exchange rate in the first quarter increase our revenue expectations by around 450 million euros," calculates Group CEO Jochen Hanebeck.

The estimates show: The biggest currency beneficiaries of a weaker euro are highly globalized companies with strong business in the dollar area. In addition to Infineon, these include $BAYN (+1,43%) Bayer with its strong US business and the DAX heavyweight Airbus $AIR (-3,2%). The European joint venture mainly builds aircraft in Germany and France, but they are sold worldwide at dollar prices.

Rheinmetall $RHM (-1,89%) also benefits: Armaments are usually invoiced in dollars, but the Düsseldorf-based group reports them in euros, which results in higher revenues from the conversion alone.

There are also profiteers in the financial sector. Deutsche Bank $DBK (+0,12%) CFO James von Moltke hinted at the outlook for 2025: There is potential for higher Group revenues than the 32 billion euros targeted so far, he said. So far, the bank has been planning with an exchange rate of 1.10 dollars per euro - i.e. a euro that is more than five cents stronger than it is currently worth. However, as Deutsche Bank has more income in dollars than costs in dollars and does not hedge this currency risk, it benefits from a weak euro, according to Moltke.

The weak euro also helps the automotive industry. Many luxury vehicles are produced in Germany, but sold worldwide, especially in the USA. Porsche $P911 (+0,35%) sells every fourth car there - but does not produce a single one.

"This will have a positive impact of several hundred million euros on Porsche's balance sheet," says a Frankfurt stock trader with a view to this year's results. However, US tariffs on imports of European cars could offset this positive effect.

Source & graphic: Handelsblatt

Imagine you could buy one of the world's largest car manufacturers - and on top of that you'd get a luxury company like Porsche and a commercial vehicle company like Traton for "free". Sounds too good to be true? That's exactly how Volkswagen ($VOW (-0,15%) ) is currently valued on the stock market. But why is that and what does it mean for investors? Let's analyze the facts! 💡

SWOT analysis: Where does VW stand?

Strengths 🌟

• Brand diversity: With Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Škoda and Lamborghini, VW covers almost all segments.
• Financial stability: Net liquidity in the Automotive Division of €34.4 billion offers security.
• Electromobility: Successful models such as the ID.7 and ID.Buzz demonstrate VW's progress in electromobility.

Weaknesses ⚡

• Dependence on China: Deliveries in this key market have slumped by 10%.
• High investment requirements: 13.6% of turnover is spent on research and development.

Opportunities 🌍

• Valuation: The share is currently trading so low that VW's core business is practically "free". 🚨
• Technology: Partnerships such as with QuantumScape could secure VW a long-term advantage.

Risks 🚧

• Competition: Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) , BYD $BYD (+0%) and Chinese manufacturers are increasing the pressure - especially for electric cars.
• Regulation: CO₂ fleet targets could cause additional costs.

Volkswagen: a bargain? 📉

The current market capitalization of Volkswagen is 55 billion €. But how does this low valuation come about? A look at the subsidiaries reveals something astonishing:

Porsche AG ($P911 (+0,35%)):

• Market capitalization: 51 billion €
• VW holds 75 % of it, which represents a value of 38.25 billion € which amounts to

Traton SE ($8TRA (-0,07%)):

• Market capitalization: 15 billion €
• VW holds 90 %which corresponds to a value of 13.5 billion € means.

Together, this amounts to 51.75 billion 👉 Conclusion: Volkswagen's shareholdings alone are worth almost as much as the Group's entire market capitalization. This means that VW's core operating business - which generates billions in sales and profits every year - is virtually "free of charge" comes for free. 🚨

Dividend: Attractive, but not without risk 💰⚠️

Volkswagen entices with a dividend yield of 8.7% (€8.70 per share at a share price of €100) - a dream come true for dividend investors. However, this high payout also reflects the challenges: profits are declining and high investments in electromobility and restructuring could put pressure on the dividend in the future. Although liquidity remains robust at €34.4 billion, risks such as fines for CO2 fleet values or further cost burdens, e.g. due to the expensive restructuring measures at VW and Audi amounting to €2.2 billion, could make cuts necessary. Nevertheless, VW offers an attractive dividend overall, which is certainly interesting even in the event of cuts.

Graham valuation: What is VW really worth? 🧮

Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett's mentor, developed a simple method for calculating the fair value of a company. His formula takes into account both earnings per share (EPS) and growth potential. Let's take a look at Volkswagen through this lens:

VW's earnings per share (EPS) are 24,3 €. To keep the valuation conservative, we assume a long-term moderate growth rate of 2 % i.e. only about the rate of inflation. Graham's formula is as follows: the value of a company is calculated by multiplying EPS by a base value of 8.5, to which a growth factor is added. Let's use the values: We multiply the 24.3 € profit with 8,5 + (2 × 2). This results in an estimated fair value of over 300 per share.

Even assuming 0 % growth the calculated value would still be 206 per share - well above the current share price of around € 100.

Of course, this is only an estimate and does not take into account all risks such as the challenges in the e-car market or the high investments. But even under conservative assumptions, the calculation shows that Volkswagen could be significantly undervalued. 🚀

Conclusion: Bargain or too many risks? 🚗⚠️

With a market capitalization of 55 billion € seems like a bargain - Porsche and Traton alone cover almost the entire value. But what about the risks?

• E-car battle: Tesla, BYD and Chinese manufacturers are making life difficult for VW - especially in China, where deliveries have fallen by 10%.
• High costs: Billions are flowing into electromobility and restructuring. Can profits and margins keep up?
• Regulatory hurdles: CO₂ targets and possible punitive tariffs could bring further burdens.

What do you think? Will VW master the transformation or are the risks too great? Let me know in the comments! 💬

#VolkswagenAnalyse

#Elektromobilität

#ValueInvesting

#AktienStrategie

#Automobilindustrie

Turbulent times at Porsche $P911 (+0,35%) The sports car manufacturer is planning to cut around 1900 jobs by 2029, primarily at its headquarters in Zuffenhausen and Weissach. Despite the employment guarantee until 2030, the company is relying on voluntary redundancies to make the cuts socially responsible. 💼⚠️

These job cuts are in addition to the savings made by temporary employees whose contracts expire in 2024. Porsche has to deal with weak business in China and a tense relationship within management. In the midst of these challenges, Porsche recently announced its intention to focus more on combustion engines again, which could lead to additional costs of up to 800 million euros. 🔧💰

A significant change of course, as Porsche originally pursued one of the most ambitious e-car strategies. ⚡🚗 #Porsche
#Stellenabbau
#Automobilindustrie
#EAuto
#Umstrukturierung

DAX reaches new all-time high again 🇩🇪📈💶👑. The left, trade unions and Wahra Sagenknecht would say that the stock market is a casino and a game of chance. Some people just always want to be wrong. Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 Which German shares do you have and how have they performed? #dax
#dax40
$LYY7 (-0,59%)
$SIE (-0,45%)
$ALV (-0,14%)
$SAP (-1,87%)
$VOW (-0,15%)
$BMW (-0,12%)
$P911 (+0,35%)
$RHM (-1,89%)
$ENR (-4,27%)
$AIR (-3,2%)
$DTE (+0,67%)
$DBK (+0,12%)
$DHL (+0,55%)
$CBK (-0,9%)
$MBG (-1,31%)
$PAH3 (+0,48%)

$P911 (+0,35%) My national pride still allowed me to hold on. But the thing is over. Bye bye DE. Hello China.

Porsche AG under pressure + Amazon beats analysts' estimates in the fourth quarter + Armaments group Hensoldt reports orders worth billions + USA: Initial jobless claims rise more than expected

Porsche AG $P911 (+0,35%)under pressure

• Shareholders from the Volkswagen Group environment are unlikely to have a tailwind on Friday.
• At the sports car subsidiary Porsche AG, the outlook given the previous evening after the close of trading was disappointing, resulting in a 1.2 percent drop at the broker Lang & Schwarz.
• The Group holding company Porsche SE followed suit by announcing higher write-downs on the carrying amounts of its core investments.
• The share price fell by half a percent in pre-market indications.
• Volkswagen shares, which were valued at 0.3 percent down at Lang & Schwarz, could also be affected.
• Porsche AG is spending money to defend itself against the crisis, but this is clouding the outlook, which according to traders is well below expectations.
• Porsche expects sales of 39 to 40 billion euros in 2025 and an operating return on sales of 10 to 12 percent.
• Group CEO Oliver Blume is therefore accepting a significant drop in the operating margin, but the dividend should remain stable.
• In an initial reaction, JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi spoke of a positive step in order to make the necessary investments in the powertrain strategy.
• These should enable the car manufacturer to return to growth over the next 24 months.

Amazon $AMZN (-2,39%)exceeds analysts' estimates in the fourth quarter

• Amazon's fourth-quarter earnings per share of USD 1.86 beat analysts' estimates of USD 1.47.
• Sales of USD 187.8 billion above expectations of USD 187.33 billion.
• Wall Street is also watching some other numbers in the report:
• Amazon Web Services: $28.8 billion, according to StreetAccount
• Advertising: $17.4 billion, according to StreetAccount
• Analysts expect sales growth of about 10% this quarter, which includes results from the holiday shopping season. Online spending rose nearly 9% to $241.1 billion in November and December, according to data from Adobe Analytics, which tracks sales on retailers' websites.
• This is slightly above analysts' forecasts, which had expected sales of USD 240.8 billion.
• According to FactSet estimates, operating profit in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 44% year-on-year to around USD 19 billion.

Defense contractor Hensoldt $HAG (+0,92%)reports orders worth billions

• The defense electronics specialist Hensoldt received orders worth billions over the turn of the year.
• In the months from October to January, orders totaled more than 1.4 billion euros, as the company announced on Thursday in Taufkirchen near Munich.
• The orders reportedly included the radar for the Eurofighter fighter jet, systems for the Leopard 2 A8 main battle tank and the modernization of the German Armed Forces' Electronic Warfare Center (ZEK).

USA: Initial jobless claims rise more than expected

• In the USA, initial jobless claims have risen unexpectedly sharply.
• Their number rose by 11,000 to 219,000 last week, as announced by the Department of Labor in Washington on Thursday.
• Economists had on average only expected an increase to 213,000 applications.
• The previous week's figure was revised slightly upwards, by 1,000 to 208,000.
• Despite the increase, the number of applications for aid is still estimated to be low.
• Experts at Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen continue to see no indications of a significant slowdown in the increase in employment.
• At the beginning of the year, applications for assistance reached their lowest level for a year at 203,000.
• The weekly initial claims are observed on the financial markets because they are an indicator of general developments on the US labor market.
• In general, labor market data plays an important role in the Fed's interest rate decisions.
• Last week, the Fed kept key interest rates stable.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Costco Wholesale USD 1.16

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 05:00 Mazda quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
• 07:30 Talanx preliminary annual results
• 08:00 Yara annual figures
• 09:00 Loreal AGM
• No time specified: Konecranes | Banca Monte dei Paschi annual figures

Economic data

08:00 DE: Trade balance December and year 2024 Trade balance calendar and seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +16.8 bn euros previously: +19.7 bn euros Exports FORECAST: -0.5% yoy previously: +2.1% yoy Imports FORECAST: +1.8% yoy previously: -3.3% yoy

08:00 DE: Production in the manufacturing sector December and year 2024 seasonally adjusted OUTLOOK: -0.9% yoy previous: +1.5% yoy

14:30 US: Labor market data January employment ex agriculture PROGNOSE: +169,000 yoy previous: +256,000 yoy Unemployment rate PROGNOSE: 4.1% previous: 4.1% Average hourly earnings PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.7% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+3.9% yoy

16:00 US: Index consumer sentiment Uni Michigan (1st survey) February FORECAST: 71.3 previous: 71.1

21:00 US: Consumer Credit 12/24

Untimed US: First meeting between President Trump and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Washington

Which German shares did you buy and how did they perform?#dax
#dax40
#deutschland
$SAP (-1,87%)
$RHM (-1,89%)
$MUV2 (-0,6%)
$ALV (-0,14%)
$ADS (-0,81%)
$DE000A0PNN47
$VOW (-0,15%)
$MBG (-1,31%)
$P911 (+0,35%)
$PAH3 (+0,48%)
$BMW (-0,12%)
$DTE (+0,67%)
$DHL (+0,55%)
$DB1 (-0,57%)
$DBK (+0,12%)
$RHM (-1,89%)
$AIR (-3,2%)
$LYY7 (-0,59%)