$P911 (+0,29%)

Now that I have reached this milestone, I would like to present my portfolio again. I am 39 years old, married and have a 9-month-old daughter. Due to my wife's parental leave and my own (3 months), I had to reduce my monthly savings rate this year and was also unable to make any major additional purchases during the dip in April. We live in an apartment in Munich that is still encumbered with EUR 220,000. I own 60% of the apartment and my wife 40%.

The aim is to be debt-free by the age of 50, double the value of the deposit and generate a dividend of EUR 1,000 per month.

My portfolio currently has $PLTR (-1,55%) and of course I also have a few securities at the start that are clouding the picture: $P911 (+0,29%) , $NKE (-0,67%)
$PEP (+0,49%)

Comments, questions and remarks are always welcome.

The weak dollar exchange rate against the euro for months now is having a noticeable impact on German companies. Numerous companies are expecting significantly lower profits in the second quarter and a continuing burden from the unfavorable exchange rate.

At the end of February, the euro was still trading at around 1.05 dollars, and some were even expecting the currencies to reach parity. But the opposite has happened: Since the threat of high US tariffs in March, the US currency has been weakening, with one euro currently costing 1.17 dollars - a 14% appreciation of the euro.

Large companies with strong foreign operations are particularly affected by this. "In the Dax, that's almost all of them," says Jörg Held, Head of Portfolio Management at the fund company Ethenea. He warns that the weakness of the dollar is "becoming a measurable profit killer". Many experts believe that the negative impact of the currency constellation will not disappear for the time being.

Companies' results will come under pressure in two ways: products from export-oriented companies such as $P911 (+0,29%) Porsche become more expensive when their price is converted into dollars. Their competitiveness is weakened because competing products from companies in other currency areas with lower exchange rate fluctuations become comparatively cheaper.

"A ten percent appreciation of the euro reduces the profit growth of European companies by three to five percentage points over the course of a year," calculates Ulrich Stephan, Chief Investment Strategist at Deutsche Bank.

• BASF
  $BAS (+0,5%) has lowered its forecast for 2025 by eight percent and now expects an adjusted profit of between 7.3 and 7.7 billion euros. Currency effects already depressed earnings in the second quarter. The negative effect on earnings is primarily due to the translation of earnings generated abroad into euros. In February, the world's largest chemical company was still expecting an exchange rate of 1.05 dollars per euro for the year as a whole. BASF is now assuming 1.15 dollars.

• SAP $SAP (+0,28%) sees a "significant headwind in the profit and loss account this year" due to the development of exchange rates, as CFO Dominik Asam says. Every percentage point by which the dollar depreciates leads to a loss of around half a percentage point in growth for SAP.

• Wacker Chemie
  $WCH (+1,07%) expects the current exchange rate level to continue. The rule of thumb within the Group is that a depreciation of the dollar against the euro of one dollar cent will have an impact of around minus three million euros on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization without hedging.

Analysts expect the weak dollar to affect other DAX companies. JP Morgan, for example, has just withdrawn its buy recommendation for Airbus shares $AIR (+1,92%) shares, partly because the exchange rate is putting pressure on profit margins. The aircraft manufacturer mainly produces in the eurozone, while the majority of its revenue is generated in dollars.

The real beneficiaries of the weak dollar are based in the USA. For example, the world's largest healthcare group Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,77%) has just raised its forecast for 2025. The second quarter was stronger than analysts had expected. In international business, however, Group sales grew almost solely due to the positive impact of the dollar.

The current weakness of the dollar as the world's leading currency is not only affecting companies that trade with the USA: All companies, regardless of whether they export to Asia, Oceania, Africa or South America, are affected, as the majority of international payment transactions and trade contracts are still settled in US dollars.

Experts expect the dollar to weaken further.

"In our view, we are only at the beginning of the bear market for the dollar," says Laurent Denize, co-investment manager at Oddo BHF. Many banks are assuming that the 1.20 dollar per euro mark could soon be reached.

There are several reasons for this: the tariff and trade dispute, the associated changeable and unpredictable policy in the US, the high level of new debt and, finally, US President Donald Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. All of this is undermining confidence in a reliable US policy - and: "All of this is tarnishing the image of the US dollar," says foreign exchange expert Sonja Marten from DZ Bank.

The discussion about a possible de-dollarization has been gaining momentum for months. This refers to the debate about whether the US dollar is losing its nimbus as the world's reserve currency. "For the first time in a long time, we believe this discussion is actually justified," says Marten. In her opinion, investors looking for alternatives to the dollar will inevitably end up in the eurozone.

If this happens, the euro will continue to gain in value as money flows from dollar to euro investments.

The trend towards the euro is likely to be fueled by the fact that the European Central Bank has probably almost reached the end of its cycle of interest rate cuts after eight cuts in the last two years. The financial markets are only pricing in a further small interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points by the end of next year.

By contrast, market participants in the US are expecting four interest rate cuts totaling one percentage point by the end of 2026, according to data from the financial news service Bloomberg. The interest rate level between the two currency regions is therefore likely to converge.

The result: the previous advantage for investors in the USA of receiving more interest for their investments there would disappear. This would make dollar investments (even) less attractive in future and, in turn, create further potential for the euro - to the chagrin of export-oriented companies from the eurozone with a strong international presence.

Source (excerpt) & chart: Handelsblatt, 25.07.25

Hello friends, I would also like to share my success. Today I finally achieved my goal of investing €100,000 this year in TR only. Unfortunately, there has been little return over the last few years. In January 2022, I probably started with an investment of €750, not realizing and not knowing that $PAH3 (-0,33%) is not today's $P911 (+0,29%) is😂.

Well, a lot of ups and downs and a few years later, I've finally reached my first goal. It's important to mention that around €70,000 has been paid in over the past 10 to 12 months. This could possibly give the impression that the return is distorted compared to a continuous deposit. I see all the fun as a big piggy bank and hope that we will have a lot more fun and make good investments in the coming years!

Next goal: The posts on TR here have given me food for thought and I'm trying to build up €150,000 at SC first and then combine both portfolios, I'll decide how to do that when the time comes! If I had a €250,000 portfolio in 2 years, I would be happy😅

$P911 (+0,29%) Everyone is always talking about the difficult market environment, US politics and subsidized Chinese car manufacturers. Ferrari shows how it's done. BMW shows how it's done. Porsche is simply completely disastrously managed. Blume is incompetent and refuses to give up his dual position. And the Porsches are so stupid and continue to support him. Goodbye Porsche. It was nice to have known you.

I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel. They will probably recover at some point. But the money is probably better spent elsewhere in the meantime.

While many in the community feel that they are keeping their distance from the car industry, I have deliberately put Porsche in my portfolio.

Why?

Because I believe in the brand, quality and dividends - and because I am convinced: You should also invest in what you really really like. Emotion in investing is often ridiculed. For me, however, it is part of it - to a healthy degree.

Of course: the share is weakening. China is not running smoothly, margins are being squeezed by e-mobility investments and the stock market is somehow punishing everything that smells of the "old economy".

But that's exactly where I see the opportunity - in the long term. Porsche is still highly profitable, has a strong brand, delivers solid dividends - and will continue to hold its place in the luxury class in the future.

And yes: if I were to buy a Porsche - why not put shares in my portfolio?

Hi everyone,

50 Eur came from the deposit account. The rest in the normal way. Does anyone know why the dividend payout was split? Account empty? 🤔