Postos
105$ADS (-10,04%) down 9% today due to Trump's tariffs on Vietnam 🇻🇳 China 🇨🇳 and Cambodia 🇰🇭
Is this a nice discount campaign to get in there?
Adidas P/E ratio is, however, far above those of $NKE (-4,46%) and $PUM (-7,02%) which indicates overvaluation.
What is your assessment of the share?
Hello my dears,
again and again I see here the requests for the largest sporting goods manufacturer in the world
nike $NKE (-4,46%) .
But let's take a look at who has won the performance race historically. Then we discover a very surprising picture. And we can even discover a tenbagger in the 5-year view. Which would be by far the Japanese sporting goods manufacturer Asics $7936 (-9,65%) would be.
5-year performance
Asics +1078.79%
Anta +84.53%
Adidas. +27,55%
Nike. +1,72%
The other three manufacturers lag far behind.
$ADS (-10,04%)
$2020 (-3,21%)
$NKE (-4,46%)
But that was in the past, so I have listed the multiples in an Excel file for comparison.
Here I notice that Adidas is ahead in terms of earnings growth, and is therefore even below Nike in terms of the forward P/E ratio. Although the current P/E ratio for Adidas is the highest and would not be a buying argument for many.
I am impressed by the high EBIT margin of the Chinese manufacturer Anta, which has managed to catch up with adidas in terms of profit despite lower sales.
Of course, this immediately raises the question of the working conditions under which production may take place here. But that would probably be a separate topic.
My dears, which is your favorite, perhaps you will now shuffle the cards again. And would anyone have expected this performance from the Japanese, will it perhaps continue here?
Your opinion is very important to me, let's discuss.
+ 1
The Puma $PUM (-7,02%) share has lost well over three quarters of its value since its peak a good three years ago. Following a weak forecast for the current year, the share price fell by a further 22 percent to 22.16 euros at the start of trading on Wednesday.
The reasons:
1. sales are growing, but slowly
2. the brand needs to be positioned at a higher level
3. complex structures and outdated IT
4. the share price is falling and falling
Among other things, a shoe that is supposed to make Puma "cool" and attractive again is now supposed to help: "Speedcat"
The now 25-year-old shoe with a flat sole is said to be all the rage in Asian pioneer markets such as South Korea. The successes that Adidas $ADS (-10,04%) is currently achieving with the retro bestseller "Samba" , Puma wants to inherit with "Speedcat".
Source (excerpt): Handelsblatt & Welt
The analyst conference of Adidas ($ADS (-10,04%) ) highlighted a successful 2024 and provided insights into the strategic priorities and financial targets for 2025 and beyond.
CEO Bjørn Gulden began by highlighting the importance of sport to the Adidas brand and emphasized that 2024 had been a year of revival, supported by major events such as the EURO and COPA . He was particularly proud of the success in soccer, including jersey sales during the EURO in Germany. The Special Olympics were also highlighted as a special, emotional highlight that reflects Adidas' values.
Gulden also presented the top shoe models of the yearfirst and foremost the "Terrace" shoes such as Samba, Gazelle and Spezial, which have contributed significantly to the brand's appeal. He hinted that "low profile shoes and lifestyle running models will gain in importance in the future. In addition, the importance of lifestyle running was also emphasized. The scaling of the Superstar model is also to be driven forward. Also worth mentioning is the cooperation with the Formula 1 team from Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS.
CFO Harm Ohlmeyer supplemented the presentation with detailed insights into the financial figures. He emphasized the strong sales growth of 12 % and the improved gross margin of 50.8 %. Particular emphasis was placed on the 400 % increase in operating profit to EUR 1.337 billion was particularly emphasized.. Ohlmeyer also referred to the the gradual increase in sales forecasts over the course of the year and emphasized that Adidas had exceeded its promises.
In the Q&A section that followed, the analysts had the opportunity to ask specific questions. Here is a summary of the most important points:
Wholesale: One analyst asked about possible pull-forward effects in the wholesale channel in Q4 and their impact on Q1 2025. Gulden denied this and emphasized that the strong strong growth was based on actual orders and reorders. Regarding the wholesale figures in Europe he was optimistic, but conceded that many retailers are struggling with volatile demand.
Share buybackAnother focus was on the prospect of a prospect of a share buyback. Ohlmeyer made it clear that the priority was investment in the operating businessfollowed by the dividend payment. A share buyback will 2026 at the earliest at the earliest if the economic situation normalizes.
Competitive environmentGulden expressed his relaxed about the competition and sees no immediate threats. However, he conceded that the development of inflation and the retail market in the USA harbor uncertainties.
Gross margin: One analyst wanted to clarify the gross margin for 2025 estimate. Ohlmeyer emphasized that currency fluctuations play a role, but was confident confident of exceeding the 2024 margin (50.8%).
Terrace shoes: There was great interest in the "Terrace" shoe collection. Gulden explained that the models Special, Gazelle and Samba models are in different phases of the market and therefore are not managed globally, but on a market-specific basis. He emphasized that Adidas is in a position to fill the Adidas is able to fill the shelves with a wide range of classic and running shoes.
Marketing model: Gulden confirmed the target of investing 12 % of sales in marketingbut emphasized the importance of investing in smaller sportsto promote brand brand credibility and innovation.
SG&A costs: One analyst discussed the SG&A costs (selling, general and administrative costs) and asked whether savings were possible. Gulden confirmed that that there would be a stronger focus on efficiency and cost reduction in future. would take place. Ohlmeyer added that the one-off costs of EUR 200 million from 2024 would not be repeated and that the reduction in complexity in the company would lead to further savings. will lead to further savings.
USA business: Gulden confirmed the goal of achieving double-digit growth in the USA. However, he conceded that the market a particular challenge due to the strong competition.
Production flexibility: In response to the question of production flexibility Gulden replied that Adidas was able to increase its footwear production by 45% last year. Thanks to the good relationships with suppliers, a high degree of flexibility is given.
Full price sell-through: One analyst asked about the full price sell-through (selling at full price) and the potential for further improvements. Gulden could not give exact figures, but emphasized that Adidas had more than halved its discounts in its own channels.
Outlook Q1 2025: In conclusion, after the start of business in the first quarter of 2025 was asked. Gulden confirmed that the double-digit growth so far so far. However, Ohlmeyer pointed out that in March last year that Yeezy products were still being sold in March last yearwhich makes the comparison more difficult.
The Adidas analyst conference conveyed a positive picture of the company. The strategic realignment seems to be bearing fruit and the financial performance has improved significantly. I was particularly impressed by the the clear focus on the Adidas brand, the strengthening of the sports segment and the successful implementation of the "Terrace" strategy.
Goldman lowers target for Adidas
The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its target price for Adidas $ADS (-10,04%) from 280 to 270 euros and left the rating at "Neutral". Analyst Richard Edwards has revised his operating earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 slightly downwards following the recently published quarterly figures. These adjustments are the result of earnings that did not quite meet expectations. In addition, the risk-free interest rate in its valuation model has been raised, which has also contributed to analysts becoming more cautious. At Adidas, it remains to be seen how the company will react to these new challenges and whether it can succeed in consolidating or even expanding its own market position.
Relief Therapeutics talks ended
In a surprising turn of events, talks about a merger between Relief Therapeutics and Renexxion have been terminated. The biopharmaceutical company has announced in a recent press release that the negotiations have not led to a satisfactory outcome. Relief Therapeutics is known for its innovative therapies, which have attracted considerable interest in the healthcare industry. The termination of these discussions could have far-reaching implications for the company's future strategy and growth. It remains to be seen how Relief Therapeutics plans its next steps and whether other partnerships may be on the horizon to further expand its product range.
Zalando wants to continue its growth course
The online retailer Zalando $ZAL (+1,67%) is optimistic and expects further growth in sales and operating profit in the current year. The company plans to achieve between four and nine percent more sales and is targeting an increase in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to between 530 and 590 million euros. These forecasts are slightly above analysts' expectations and reflect solid growth. Last year, Zalando already recorded sales of just under 10.6 billion euros, which corresponds to an increase of over four percent. The operating result also rose by an impressive 46 percent to 511 million euros. The positive growth forecast has encouraged investors, which is reflected in a pre-market rise in Zalando shares of up to 1.99 percent. It will be exciting to see how Zalando can realize its ambitious goals and which strategies will be used to achieve them.
Sources:
Adidas focuses on further growth + Blackrock acquires two ports on the Panama Canal + freenet with record EBITDA, free cash flow and higher dividend than in the previous year
Blackrock $BLK (-2,92%)takes over two ports on the Panama Canal
Adidas $ADS (-10,04%)focuses on further growth
freenet $FNTN (+1,2%)posts record EBITDA and free cash flow for the 2024 financial year - Proposed dividend significantly higher than previous year
Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
08:30 CH: Consumer prices February FORECAST: +0.6% yoy/+0.2% yoy previously: -0.1% yoy/+0.4% yoy
08:45 FR: Industrial production January FORECAST: +0.4% yoy previous: -0.4% yoy
09:45 IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing February FORECAST: 50.5 previous: 50.4
09:50 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) February PROGNOSE: 44.5 1st release: 44.5 PREV: 48.2 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 44.5 1st release: 44.5 PREV: 47.6
09:55 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) February FORECAST: 52.2 1st release: 52.2 PREV: 52.5 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) FORECAST: 51.0 1st release: 51.0 PREV: 50.5
10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing euro area (2nd release) February FORECAST: 50.7 1st release: 50.7 PREV: 51.3 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) FORECAST: 50.2 1st release: 50.2 PREV: 50.2
10:00 IT: GDP (2nd release) 4Q
10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) February 1. Release: 51.1 previous: 50.8
11:00 EU: Producer Prices January Eurozone FORECAST: +0.4% yoy/+1.4% yoy previously: +0.4% yoy/0.0% yoy
14:15 US: ADP labor market report February private sector employment PROGNOSE: +148,000 jobs previous: +183,000 jobs
15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Services (2nd release) February FORECAST: 49.8 1st release: 49.7 previous: 52.9
16:00 US: Industrial New Orders January FORECAST: +1.6% yoy previous: -0.9% yoy
16:00 US: ISM non-manufacturing index February FORECAST: 52.9 points previous: 52.8 points
20:00 US: Fed, Beige Book
Sales of selected competitors of Nike $NKE (-4,46%) :
Nike(USA): $49.0 billion, -8% in the last quarter compared to the previous year, $NKE (-4,46%)
Adidas*(Germany): $24.6 billion, +7%, $ADS (-10,04%)
Lululemon**(USA): $10.2 billion, +9%, $LULU (-3,76%)
VF Corporation**(USA): $9.9 billion, +2%, $VFC (-4,61%)
Anta Sports*(China): $9.7 billion, +14%, $2020 (-3,21%)
Puma*(Germany): $9.3 billion, +0%, $PUM (-7,02%)
Skechers**(USA): $8.7 billion, +13%, $SKX (-3,32%)
New Balance*(USA): $7.8 bn, unlisted
Under Armour*(USA): $5.4 billion, -6%, $UAA (-4,93%)
Deckers Brands**(USA): $4.6 billion, +17%, $DECK (-4,56%)
ASICS*(Japan): $4.1 billion , +16%, $7936 (-9,65%)
Li Ning*(China): $3.9 bn, +2%, $2331 (-4,38%)
On Holding**(Switzerland): $2.5 billion, +32%, $ONON
Despite all its problems, Nike is still twice as big as Adidas and somewhat as big as its four main competitors (Adidas, Anta Sports, Puma, New Balance) combined. together.
The Nike share is currently in a 60% drawdown (the worst in 25 years) and is roughly at the level of the COVID-19 low in March 2020.
Attractive risk-reward ratio?
Is Nike a buy, hold or sell for you?
*Main competitor
**Competitor in certain segments
Total return
1.425,88 €
True time-weighted rate of return
24.37 % That's my balance sheet from January! I am very happy with that! I have sold all my short-term trading positions. I built up my first positions for February yesterday and today. These are derivatives on $ADYEN (-2,92%) (MG9L2B) purchase yesterday at 4.15 $ZAL (+1,67%) ( UG0W0H) Buy today at 5.84 $NOC (-1,96%) (HT21L8) purchase day before yesterday at 1.10 I have planned purchases in $FTNT (-3,68%) ( JT7XG3) $AMZN (-2,14%) ( MJ5V94) $ADS (-10,04%) (ME44Y2) and for a little longer $AXON (-3,2%) (Ht1KYH) I am keeping the remaining powder dry in case there are great opportunities like last Monday.
Which German shares did you buy and how did they perform?#dax
#dax40
#deutschland
$SAP (-0,99%)
$RHM (+3,51%)
$MUV2 (+0,98%)
$ALV (+0,25%)
$ADS (-10,04%)
$DE000A0PNN47
$VOW (-0,11%)
$MBG (+0,39%)
$P911 (+2,65%)
$PAH3 (-0,66%)
$BMW (+0,26%)
$DTE (+0,74%)
$DHL (-3,02%)
$DB1 (+0,8%)
$DBK (-3,27%)
$RHM (+3,51%)
$AIR (-2%)
$LYY7 (+0,15%)
Interview with Clemens Fuest - Germany on the brink? Ifo President finds: "Elon Musk is talking nonsense"
The German economy is stagnating and economic output is not rising above the 2019 level. That is the bitter outcome of a lost half-decade, as Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo Institute, makes clear in an interview with the FAZ.
"We have real problems," says Fuest, adding that it is not just external circumstances that are weighing on Germany's economy, but also home-grown problems. In this tense economic environment, Fuest voices fierce criticism of Elon Muskthe CEO of Tesla. Musk, known for his sometimes controversial statements and visions, hatte zuletzt Vorschläge gemacht which Fuest describes as "gross nonsense". These proposals relate in particular to Musk's ideas on the industry of the future.
"Germany is not on the brink"
Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Germany must fundamentally change its industrial policy in order to remain competitive. Fuest replied: "Germany is not on the brink, wie er behauptet . Our country is stuck in stagnation, that's something completely different."
Fuest emphasizes in the interview that German economic policy should aim to further promote its strengths. "Depending on the count, there are between 1,000 and 1,500 companies in Germany that are world market leaders in a niche. No other country has this in this form. And that leads to the export strength that continues to characterize Germany."
The Ifo Director calls for political decision-makers in Germany and Europe to rethink and adapt their strategies. "The approach of relying heavily on subsidies to transform the economy" was wrong, he emphasizes. The "traffic light coalition has also failed to find an answer to the decline in investment in companies and housing construction".
"Depending on the count, there are between 1,000 and 1,500 companies in Germany that are world market leaders in a niche. No other country has this in this form. And that leads to the export strength that continues to characterize Germany."
My dears, which world market leaders can you think of here? And which German niche companies are you counting on?
$SIE (-2,78%)
$MUM (+0,89%)
$SAP (-0,99%)
$AIXA (-1,83%)
$ADS (-10,04%)
$RR. (-0,1%)
$FRE (+1,68%)
