Which Dax shares do you have in your portfolio?

Source: https://t.co/1KCO9l8ZsE

#dax
#dividend
#dividende
#dividends

$ADS (-0,23%)
$AIR (-8,31%)
$ALV (-8,43%)
$BAS (-5%)
$BAYN (-6,12%)
$BMW (-5,51%)
$BEI (-0,89%)

In this article, I would like to give my personal assessment and opinion of some established pharmaceutical companies.

As a naive and uninformed person, I always believed that the pharmaceutical sector would play a major role in the future.

Now I have taken a closer look at the companies on the basis of fundamental key figures and have come to a very sobering conclusion.

However, I only evaluate the past and draw conclusions for the future from the past. I cannot evaluate and assess something like a pipeline because I lack the understanding and specialist knowledge.

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I looked at the following companies:

Bayer $BAYN (-6,12%)

Eli Lilly $LLY (-7,56%)

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-3,01%)

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-6,66%)

Roche $ROG (-5,6%)

Pfizer $PFE (-4,59%)

Merck $MRK (-4,87%)

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Let's start with the most popular title:

$NOVO B (-6,66%)

Novo Nordisk has the best fundamentals of all the stocks we looked at. The growth is right, the margins have been consistently above 30% since 2013 (unique selling point) and the return on equity is very high.

However, there has been disproportionately strong sales growth in the last 3 years. Probably due to GLP-1?

The question here is whether this growth can be maintained and whether sales can remain at this level? These uncertainties, as well as the regularization of GLP-1, could partly explain the fall in the share price in recent months. The valuation ratios are still quite sporty, but could this be justified in view of growth and margins? The quarterly figures will be very interesting.

I will start a savings plan and continue to monitor the shares.

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$BAYN (-6,12%)

Bayer AG has lost over 60% of its share price since the beginning of 2023. In my naivety, I thought that the share was now attractively valued. In fact, it has a price/sales ratio of just 0.47% and yet I would not invest.

If you look at the balance sheets of the last 10 years and further back, growth and profitability, you can see that the share has always been fundamentally weak. At best, it may be interesting for a trade, but I would not invest.

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$LLY (-7,56%)

Eli Lilly is basically a good company with solid figures. However, there have been one or two ups and downs over the years and balance sheets. If the company had invested in 2017 despite the poor figures at the time, it would be up several hundred percent today.

2024 was a record year for Eli Lilly with a 32 % increase in sales to around USD 45 billion. The main reason for this growth was the strong sales figures for diabetes drugs and weight loss injections.

In my opinion, the share is heavily overvalued despite its qualities and lags behind Novo Nordisk in many respects (fundamentally). I expect a significant correction here. This may not occur until 2026 or 27, but a price/earnings ratio of over 70 is in no way justified.

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$JNJ (-3,01%)

I think Johnson & Johnson is a conglomerate, as it also sells consumer goods. It has little to no growth, quite good profitability and a dividend of over 3%🤑.

I guess you don't necessarily have to own this share, as it doesn't stand out from the others in any way (but it does, it beats Bayer, for example, across the board) but it could possibly be a defensive stock for stability, if you value that sort of thing, and the dividend could also be a decisive factor if you buy it at the right time.

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$PFE (-4,59%)

Pfizer is clearly a corona profiteer that achieved record sales in 2021 and 22. After Corona, the awakening and a share price drop of over 50 %.

From 2010-2020, sales even declined and margins ranged from 12% to over 40%. I suspect that the turn around to the pre-corona level could succeed, so my price target is $29-44.

Here, too, I do not see a quality company, not a must-have and at best a trade or the dividend, which is currently over 6%, could also be interesting here.

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$ROG (-5,6%)

I thought only gold and chocolate came from Switzerland. That's not the case, because there is also Roche, not Ferrero Rocher but the pharmaceutical company. You would have to read up on this and find out more, because there seem to have been serious capital measures since 2022, which make the fundamental data look very negative.

So it looks (if the data from my data provider is correct) that Roche has not been profitable since 22. Operating profit in 2024 has fallen to a level similar to the lows of 2015 and 17. Cash flow and return on capital are negative and there has actually been no sales growth since 2019.

If you look at the company from 2011-2021, they were actually quite solidly positioned.

I don't want to make a clear judgment on Roche because I don't think I have enough information to be able to correctly interpret these figures for the last three years, because what looks like a pile of 💩 (chocolate) could also be an opportunity. But I don't know.

Incidentally, it looks very similar at Novartis $NOVN (-5,35%) looks very similar and so I am encouraged that there may be a political geographic background that needs to be identified in order to value these stocks correctly.

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$MRK (-4,87%)

Merck shares are in the midfield. From 2010-2018, the figures even declined. Continuous growth has been observed since 2018, with record sales in the last 3 years in particular.

The share appears to be relatively cheaply valued with a P/E ratio of less than 14.

For me, the question remains whether this profitability is sustainable and whether a strong year will not be followed by another weak one. Personally, the risk/return ratio for Merck would be too low for me.

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My conclusion:

I will keep my distance from the pharmaceutical sector, as I am not in a position to assess a pipeline and there could always be medical breakthroughs that I am unable to predict.

On the other hand, expected successes can also fail to materialize or lead to failures and economic losses due to official regulations.

In addition, research is very time and capital intensive and there is no guarantee of success.

I will be satisfied with the share of the pharmaceutical sector in my broadly diversified ETF and, contrary to the above conclusion, start a savings plan on Novo Nordisk 🤓

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Thanks for reading and I welcome additions, corrections and opinions, but please don't be so hard on me. 😇

US tariff threats send Hong Kong stock market plummeting + Novo Nordisk secures rights to weight loss and diabetes drugs + Hornbach defies weak consumer sentiment and increases earnings + Bayer is recommended to stop glyphosate sales in the USA + Heidelberg Materials wants to pay more dividends

US tariff threats send Hong Kong stock market plummeting

• Similar to the start of the week, stock markets in East Asia and Australia were mostly little changed on Tuesday.
• The very firm guidance from Wall Street fizzled out.
• In the US, share prices rose sharply on Monday, supported by media reports that the punitive tariffs announced by the Trump administration for the beginning of April will be less drastic than initially announced.
• The planned introduction date of April 2 also no longer appears to be set in stone.
• There is a sharp drop in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 2 percent.
• Observers point to the US President's announcement to impose punitive tariffs of 25 percent on imports from countries that purchase oil from Venezuela.
• China is one of the countries affected, notes equity strategist Kai Wang from Morningstar.
• Although there is no direct correlation with the Hong Kong stock exchange, he admits, the market reaction could be a kind of "side effect" of the impending risks.
• Other market participants are talking about profit-taking, especially in the technology sector, which had recently benefited from AI fantasies.
• In Shanghai, meanwhile, the Composite Index is up 0.1 percent.

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-6,66%)secures rights to weight and diabetes medication

• The Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk has secured the rights to a potential next-generation weight loss drug for up to 2 billion US dollars.
• According to a statement on Monday, the Danes are paying an initial 200 million dollars (185 million euros) for the rights to the active ingredient UBT251 from the Chinese company United Laboratories.
• This excludes mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
• Depending on certain targets and possible sales figures, up to 1.8 billion dollars may be added at a later date.
• UBT251 is said to target three different mechanisms in the fight against obesity, diabetes and other diseases.
• Studies in early test phases are ongoing.
• It may therefore take some time before approval is granted for the various indications.
• The deal strengthens Novo Nordisk's pipeline of novel drugs for the treatment of diabetes and obesity.
• The Danes were the top dog for a long time, but competition in this lucrative business has been increasing rapidly for some time now.

Hornbach $HBH (-3,78%)defies weak consumer sentiment and posts surprisingly strong earnings growth

• The DIY group Hornbach Holding continued to struggle in the past 2024/25 financial year due to its customers' reluctance to spend.
• However, because the management kept costs firmly under control and lower commodity prices also had a favorable effect, the company increased its operating profit surprisingly significantly.
• In the twelve months to the end of February, earnings adjusted for special items (adjusted EBIT) climbed by 6 percent to 270 million euros, the SDax-listed company announced in Bornheim on Tuesday based on preliminary calculations.
• The Group thus exceeded analysts' profit expectations.
• Albrecht Hornbach, CEO of shareholder Hornbach Management AG, expressed his satisfaction.
• "We look back positively on the results of the past financial year", he said according to the press release.
• "Despite subdued consumer sentiment, especially in Germany, we successfully developed our business further.
• We were able to expand our market share in Germany and other important European markets."
• At EUR 6.2 billion, sales in the period under review were only slightly up on the previous year, meaning Hornbach performed in line with the revenue forecast lowered in December.
• As the largest operating subgroup, the DIY store business posted sales growth of 1.2 percent in the past year, while the builders' merchant business suffered losses of a good six percent due to the weak sector economy in Germany.
• The Board of Management will publish further details on the past financial year and its sales and earnings forecasts for the current year 2025/26 on May 21.

For will Bayer $BAYN (-6,12%)recommended a halt to glyphosate sales in the USA

• Due to the ongoing wave of glyphosate lawsuits, Markus Manns, fund manager at Union Investment, is recommending that Bayer stop selling glyphosate in the USA.
• "If there is no progress in the lobbying activities or the legislative proposals, or if the Supreme Court does not deal with the case, then Bayer must urgently consider stopping glyphosate sales in the USA," Manns told the Rheinische Post.
• "The company and its shareholders cannot tolerate any further large waves of lawsuits."
• Manns further emphasized: "The amount of damages in Georgia is astronomically high and a bitter setback for Bayer's litigation strategy.
• However, the amount will probably be significantly reduced by an appellate court."
• A jury in Georgia has just ordered Bayer to pay more than 2 billion US dollars to a man suffering from cancer. (Rheinische Post)

Heidelberg Materials $HEI (-6,75%)wants to pay more dividends

• The building materials group Heidelberg Materials wants to pay out more to its shareholders despite a decline in profits.
• A dividend of 3.30 euros per share is to be paid for 2024, as the DAX-listed company announced in its annual report on Tuesday.
• This is 30 cents more than in the previous year.
• Analysts had estimated an average of 3.25 euros.
• The company had already presented preliminary full-year figures in February and provided an initial outlook for the current year.
• As already announced, the bottom line for 2024 was a net profit attributable to shareholders of just under EUR 1.8 billion, compared to around EUR 1.9 billion in the previous year.
• The management confirmed the profit target for the current year.
• The Executive Board expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of 3.25 to 3.55 billion euros for 2025, compared to 3.2 billion euros in the previous year.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 TAG Immobilien detailed annual results and dividend
• 07:00 Hornbach Holding AG Trading Statement 2024
• 07:30 Jenoptik annual results | Indus Holding Capital Markets Day
• 07:50 Medios annual results
• 11:00 Jenoptik BI-PK
• Without time information: Heidelberg Materials | MTU Aero Engines Annual Report | Tui Capital Markets Day

• Economic data

06:00 EU: Acea, new car registrations, February

08:00 DE: Construction industry, new orders and sales January | Residential real estate prices (house price index) 4Q

10:00 DE: NordLB Norddeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale, annual results

10:00 DE: Ifo Business Climate Index PROGNOSE: 86.6 PREVIOUS: 85.2 Situation assessment PROGNOSE: 85.5 PREVIOUS: 85.0 Business expectations PROGNOSE: 88.0 PREVIOUS: 85.4

11:00 DE: Bundestag, Constituent Session, Berlin

11:30 EU: ECB, allotment of 7-day main refi tender

14:00 HU: Hungary's central bank PROGNOSE: n.a. previous: 6.50%

14:40 US: Fed Governor Kugler, speech on "Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship"

15:00 BE: Business Climate Index March PROGNOSIS: n.a. previous: -12.3

15:00 US: Consumer Confidence Index March PROGNOSIS: 93.5 previous: 98.3

15:00 US: New Home Sales February FORECAST: +3.0% yoy previous: -10.5% yoy

As a listener to Bayer's conference call ($BAYN (-6,12%) ) on the results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2024, I was able to gain a deep insight into the company's current situation and future plans.

William Anderson, Bayer's CEO, began with a summary of the 2024 results and gave an outlook for 2025. Despite the challenges, he was optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. It was particularly emphasized that the results were in line with the forecasts adjusted in November and that the debt was reduced to 32.6 billion euros. could be reduced.

Wolfgang Nickl, Chief Financial Officer, provided more detailed information on the Group's financial performance. Sales rose slightly by 1%, while EBITDA pre exceptionals fell by 14% to EUR 10.1 billion. This decline was mainly due to lower results in the Crop Science Division and negative currency effects. For 2025, Bayer expects sales of between 45 and 47 billion euros and EBITDA of between 9.5 and 10 billion euros. Free cash flow is expected to be between EUR 1.5 and 2.5 billion and net financial debt is expected to fall to between EUR 31 and 32 billion.

Anderson emphasized that Bayer will focus on reducing debton reducing debt, overcoming legal disputes and increasing profitability. An important point is the improving profitability in Crop Sciencewhere generic price pressure and regulatory challenges are putting pressure on margins. Bayer plans to accelerate growth through innovation and efficiency improvements and increase margins to mid-20% by 2029.

Pharmaceuticals: Stefan Oelrich, Head of the Pharmaceuticals Division, reported sales growth of 3.3% in 2024, driven by the strong performance of the new drugs Nubeqa and Kerendia. However, a decline in sales is expected for 2025, as the patent expiry of Xarelto will have a negative impact on earnings. Bayer plans to return to growth from 2027 through new product launches and an improved pipeline.

Consumer Health: Julio Triana, Head of the Consumer Health Division, highlighted growth in almost all categories, particularly in dermatology and digestive health. Further sales growth of between 2% and 5% is expected for 2025.

Crop Science: Rodrigo Santos, Head of the Crop Science Division, described 2024 as challenging, with a 2% decline in sales. Lower prices for glyphosate and regulatory hurdles had a negative impact on results. A slow market recovery is expected in 2025, and Bayer plans to increase profitability and growth through a comprehensive five-year strategy.

The subsequent Q&A session provided further insight into Bayer's strategic thinking. Here are some of the key points:

Asundexian: An analyst asked about the potential of Asundexian, a stroke prevention drug. Oelrich confirmed that the results of the Phase III trial are expected in the second half of the year and that the drug has blockbuster potential if the outcome is positive.

Dicamba: Another focus was on the regulatory challenges surrounding dicamba, an herbicide. Santos explained that Bayer is working on a solution for the next season and is confident that a new herbicide will be approved for 2026.

Glyphosate: Analysts were also interested in the impact of tariffs on glyphosate imports. Santos mentioned that tariffs on imports from China could potentially have a positive impact on prices.

Short-Stature Corn: Steve Byrne of Bank of America asked about the results of short-stem corn trials. Santos responded that the data to date shows higher yields at high density and no increased problems with weeds or disease have been noted.

Litigation: William Anderson outlined Bayer's strategy to address ongoing litigation related to PCBs and glyphosate. He emphasized that Bayer is committed to a scientific discussion of the facts.

Pipeline: Analysts expressed their interest in the pipeline and when initial results can be expected. Oelrich indicated that a more detailed update will be given later this year.

Profitability: The surprise inclusion of Crop Science profitability as a fifth focus area was questioned by analysts. Anderson explained that this was due to the structural problems in Crop Protection.

The conference call provided a comprehensive picture of Bayer in a period of upheaval. The company is facing significant challenges, particularly in connection with the patent expiry of Xarelto and the legal disputes in Crop Science. At the same time, however, there are also promising opportunities for growth, particularly through new product launches and an improved pipeline. Bayer's strategic priorities of reducing debt, managing litigation and increasing profitability appear well placed to position the company for long-term success.

Do any of you have Bayer in your portfolio?

Bayer $BAYN (-6,12%) is considering a possible ban on the sale of glyphosate in the USA. Since the takeover of glyphosate developer Monsanto a few years ago, the company has had to contend with a wave of lawsuits that have cost it billions. Analysts at Jefferies report that Bayer is facing the decision to stop selling the controversial herbicide if there is no clear regulatory perspective. Since 2018, Bayer has been facing major challenges in the glyphosate business as the number of lawsuits has risen to around 181,000. In order to prepare for possible financial burdens, the Group has set aside provisions of 5.9 billion dollars. Sales of glyphosate products are forecast to fall by 7.5 percent to 2.6 billion euros in 2024. An exit from this business segment has not yet been officially addressed, but a realignment is being considered. The situation remains tense and it remains to be seen how Bayer will respond to the challenges.

In the USA, industry is surprisingly weaker than expected, although it has recently returned to growth. The Purchasing Managers' Index, an important indicator of economic health, fell from 50.9 to 50.3 points, below economists' expectations. Although this mark remains above the growth threshold, the slowdown is clearly noticeable. Costs for industrial companies have reached their highest level since summer 2022, highlighting the challenges in this sector. Experts assume that the US Federal Reserve will not be forced to ease monetary policy more quickly under these conditions, as the risks to price trends are on the upside. In addition, construction spending fell by 0.2% in January, further underlining the difficulties in the construction industry. The economic situation therefore remains tense and could prove challenging in the coming months.

Sources:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Bayer-denkt-ueber-Glyphosat-Verkaufsstopp-in-den-USA-nach-article25612946.html

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Wachstum-der-US-Industrie-laesst-staerker-nach-als-erwartet-article25602722.html

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/jsEEQ7p900o?si=YxUmTubdAPwHFSPq

Sunday:

Trump announces a strategic crypto reserve, the price of Bitcoin rises again. In addition to Bitcoin and Ether, investments are also to be made in Cardano, Solana and Ripple. 'The USA is to become the crypto capital of the world'

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Trump-kuendigt-strategische-Krypto-Reserve-an-article25599761.html

Monday:

The EU Commission wants to relax the climate targets. The shares of the car manufacturers, $VOW3 (-4,37%) VW, $BMW (-5,51%) BMW and $MBG (-5,9%) Mercedes can rise significantly. The annual targets are to be combined into a compensation period. This would give the car manufacturers more time in case of doubt.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/autoindustrie-eu-kommission-will-klimaziele-fuer-autobauer-lockern/100111120.html

Inflation is falling slightly less than expected. In February, inflation in the eurozone was 2.4%. The expected figure was 2.3%, compared with 2.5% in January. The next interest rate cut is expected on Thursday.

https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/europa/inflationsrate-in-der-eurozone-verbraucherpreise-sinken-weniger-als-erwartet-a-bd9e29de-b59d-4372-93d6-9af33e1a1758

Wednesday:

Sales at$BAYN (-6,12%) Bayer stagnated in 2024, EBITDA fell by 22%. However, things are expected to pick up again in 2026. The bottom line was a loss of 2.55 billion euros. Shareholders will receive a dividend of 0.11 euros per share. Bayer had already cut the dividend to the minimum last year in order to reduce debt. A dividend is to be paid again from 2027. On Friday, it was announced that the company plans to seek approval for the possibility of a capital increase at the AGM.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/chemiekonzern-ergebniseinbruch-bei-bayer-erst-ab-2026-besserung-erwartet/100109789.html

The economic data from the USA is better than expected. The purchasing managers' index in particular is above expectations. However, there is much to suggest that prices will continue to rise. The order situation and employment are also improving compared to the previous month.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/usa-ism-index-service-2-341270/

Thursday:

$DHLGY (-7,27%) DHL cuts 8,000 jobs in the mail and parcel business after poor figures. Earnings per share fell from 3.09 to 2.86 euros. The dividend is to be kept stable at 1.85 euros per share. The revenue forecast, which was lowered in the fall, was exceeded.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/dienstleister/dhl-logistikkonzern-streicht-8000-stellen-in-deutschland/100111422.html

Thursday:

No big surprise: the ECB cuts the key interest rate for the 6th time to 2.5%. However, the debate about further interest rate cuts becomes more heated. A pause in interest rates is likely to come at the latest at an interest rate of 1.75%.

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/EZB-senkt-Leitzins-zum-sechsten-Mal-seit-Sommer-article25611145.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Tuesday: 00:50 GDP figures (Japan)

Wednesday: 13:30 Inflation data (USA)

Thursday: 13:30 Producer prices (USA)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#inflation
#usa
#bip
#erzeugerpreise
#japan

BYD increases e-vehicle sales

BYD $1211 (-7,35%) is continuing its impressive growth trajectory and is making a good start. In February 2025, sales figures for plug-in vehicles rose by an impressive 161% compared to the previous year. The company sold a total of 322,846 vehicles, which shows a clear upward trend. Particularly exciting is the massive increase in pure electric vehicles, where sales figures rose by 127.5 percent and 124,902 BEVs were sold. However, plug-in hybrids remain the dominant vehicle category with 193,331 units sold. Investors are delighted with these strong figures: BYD shares rose by 5.79 percent to 51.15 Hong Kong dollars, raising hopes for a continued successful future.

Freenet plans dividend increase

Freenet $FNTN (-5,99%) achieved its targets last year and is now planning a dividend increase, which will put shareholders in a good mood. EBITDA climbed by 3.5 percent to 521.5 million euros, supported by a special effect from the sale of IP addresses. Free cash flow was also strong and improved to 292.3 million euros. Revenues grew by 3.9% to EUR 2.478 billion, with growth being driven primarily by waipu.tv subscription customers. The dividend is to be increased to EUR 1.97 per share. The Management Board is also planning a share buyback program with a volume of up to EUR 100 million, underlining its confidence in the company's future development.

Bayer expects profit decline

Bayer $BAYN (-6,12%) expects a further decline in operating profit in 2025, particularly in the agricultural business. The company faces continued headwinds that could have a negative impact on business results. While the exact figures and forecasts are still to come, there are already early indications that market conditions will remain challenging. It remains to be seen how this development will affect the stock and whether Bayer will be able to withstand the market challenges.

Sources:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/auf-wachstumskurs-byd-aktie-profitiert-von-starken-auslieferungszahlen-in-china-14292232

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/dividendenerhoehung-geplant-freenet-aktie-im-plus-freenet-erreicht-eigene-prognosen-14291119

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/bayer-aktie-bayer-rechnet-2025-mit-weiterem-gewinnrueckgang-14292325

So small speculation sold, unfortunately could not invest in the soil in time or buy more. The glyphosate story is not over yet and I don't believe that the figures will be the yellow of the egg.✌️

The euro has been weakening since September 2024 and is approaching parity with the dollar - the currency ratio would then be one to one. The dollar is currently still worth around 1.04 euros, up seven cents in the fall.

German companies with strong business in the dollar area can benefit from this development in several ways.

"The strength of the dollar is good news for exporting German companies," comment the analysts at Baader Bank. This is because their products are comparatively cheaper in the USA.

A weak euro makes exports cheaper, making European products and services cheaper and more competitive in the dollar area and thus in large parts of America and Asia. Import duties in the USA would make products more expensive again - but in the end, the two effects could almost balance each other out.

For example, the medical technology group Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-5,55%) is hardly worried about the threat of import duties in the USA. The company shares the fear of a global trade war. However, the company expects that the headwind from tariffs and the tailwind from the stronger dollar will largely balance each other out, says CFO Jochen Schmitz.

The tailwind from the strong dollar could remain with companies for a long time to come. "The euro will become a really weak currency. It should quickly fall below parity with the dollar and be at 0.95 euros per dollar quite quickly," expects the well-known fund manager Jens Ehrhardt, founder and CEO of DJE Kapital.

The European Central Bank (ECB) expects the strength of the dollar to ease the burden on exporting companies in the event of possible import tariffs in the USA. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch says: "The euro would have to be brought to parity in order to essentially compensate for a tariff of ten percent."

The many companies that produce locally in the USA and sell their goods there also benefit from a strong dollar. This is because the effect on the balance sheet is even stronger as soon as companies convert their earnings generated in the dollar zone into their home currency. For every dollar earned, there are currently seven euro cents more than in the fall.

Companies are already feeling the effects. For example, Infineon $IFX (-8,33%) raised its forecast for the current financial year a few days ago. Previously, the Munich-based semiconductor manufacturer had assumed a slight decline in turnover. The DAX-listed company now expects stable to slightly increasing revenue in 2024.

One reason is the strength of the dollar. Infineon is now assuming a euro-dollar exchange rate of 1.05 euros this year - after previously assuming 1.10 euros. "This adjustment and the better exchange rate in the first quarter increase our revenue expectations by around 450 million euros," calculates Group CEO Jochen Hanebeck.

The estimates show: The biggest currency beneficiaries of a weaker euro are highly globalized companies with strong business in the dollar area. In addition to Infineon, these include $BAYN (-6,12%) Bayer with its strong US business and the DAX heavyweight Airbus $AIR (-8,31%). The European joint venture mainly builds aircraft in Germany and France, but they are sold worldwide at dollar prices.

Rheinmetall $RHM (-10,98%) also benefits: Armaments are usually invoiced in dollars, but the Düsseldorf-based group reports them in euros, which results in higher revenues from the conversion alone.

There are also profiteers in the financial sector. Deutsche Bank $DBK (-10%) CFO James von Moltke hinted at the outlook for 2025: There is potential for higher Group revenues than the 32 billion euros targeted so far, he said. So far, the bank has been planning with an exchange rate of 1.10 dollars per euro - i.e. a euro that is more than five cents stronger than it is currently worth. However, as Deutsche Bank has more income in dollars than costs in dollars and does not hedge this currency risk, it benefits from a weak euro, according to Moltke.

The weak euro also helps the automotive industry. Many luxury vehicles are produced in Germany, but sold worldwide, especially in the USA. Porsche $P911 (-4,36%) sells every fourth car there - but does not produce a single one.

"This will have a positive impact of several hundred million euros on Porsche's balance sheet," says a Frankfurt stock trader with a view to this year's results. However, US tariffs on imports of European cars could offset this positive effect.

Source & graphic: Handelsblatt

January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:

"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"

The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.

As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.

Main topics:

• Rethinking growth: How can we tap into new sources of economic growth?

• How can companies respond to tech and geopolitical upheaval?

• What measures promote education, health & human capital?

• How can innovative partnerships & techs drive climate protection?

• How can cooperation be strengthened to overcome social divisions?

Participants from politics & business.

Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.

The key figures from politics are:

• 🇺🇸 Donald J. Trump(soon to be) President of the USA (via video link)
• 🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
• 🇨🇳 Ding XuexiangVice Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China
• 🇦🇷 Javier MileiPresident of Argentina
• 🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany
• 🇿🇦 Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
• 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain
• 🇨🇭 Karin Keller-Sutter, President of the Swiss Confederation 2025
• 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)

Technology sector

• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-2,36%) (Microsoft) - Satya Nadella, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $AMZN (-3,47%) (Amazon) - Andy Jassy, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $IBM (-5,4%) (IBM) - Arvind Krishna, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-2,36%) (Microsoft) - Bill Gates, co-founder and head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• 🌎 Cohere - Aidan Gomez, CEO
• 🌎 $META (-4,44%) (Meta) - Yann LeCun, AI scientist
• 🌎 OpenAI - Sam Altman, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $TSLA (-9,97%) (Tesla) - Elon Musk, CEO

Financial sector

• 🇪🇺 ECB - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
• 🇫🇷 ECB - Francois Villeroy de Galhau, President of the French Central Bank
• 🇩🇪 German Bundesbank- Joachim Nagel, President
• 🇺🇸 $BLK (BlackRock) - Martin Lück, Chief Investment Strategist
• 🇳🇱 $ING (-7,27%) (ING) - Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany

Banking sector

• 🇺🇸 $JPM (-7,37%) (JPMorgan Chase) - Jamie Dimon, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (-5,08%) (UBS) - Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (-5,08%) (UBS) - Colm Kelleher, President
• 🇩🇪 $DBK (-10%) (Deutsche Bank) - Christian Sewing, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $GS (-7,35%) (Goldman Sachs) - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO
• 🇺🇸 $BAC (-7,71%) (Bank of America) - Brian Moynihan, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $C (-7,64%) (Citigroup) - Jane Fraser, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-7,02%) (HSBC) - Mark Tucker, Group Chairman
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-7,02%) (HSBC) - Michael Roberts, CEO of HSBC Bank
• 🇺🇸 $MS (-7,32%) (Morgan Stanley) - Ted Pick, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $BARC (-8,18%) (Barclays) - C.S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO
• 🇫🇷 $GLE (-10,52%) (Société Générale) - Slawomir Krupa, CEO
• 🇮🇹 $UCG (-11%) (UniCredit) - Andrea Orcel, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $BG (-9,63%) (BAWAG Group) - Anja E. M. W. Schreiber, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $EBS (-8,46%) (Erste Group) - Andreas Treichl, CEO

Industry sector

• 🇩🇪 $BAYN (-6,12%) (Bayer) - Bill Anderson, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $NESNE (Nestlé) - Mark Schneider, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $ULVR (-3,5%) (Unilever) - Hein Schumacher, CEO
• 🇨🇳 SHEIN - Donald Tang, Vice Chairman
• 🇮🇳 ADANIENT (Adani Enterprises) - Gautam Adani, Chairman

... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.