Had the share since the IPO 🤝🏽

As announced, Siemens AG has sold shares in its subsidiary Siemens Healthineers. $SHL (-5,55%) as announced. Around 22 million ordinary shares, corresponding to around 2 percent of the share capital, are now going to institutional investors. Prior to the sale, Siemens held around 75 percent of the medical technology company.

The reaction on the market was not long in coming: Siemens Healthineers' share price fell by 1.2 percent in after-hours trading. 🤔 What do you think about such sales? Will it drag the share price down in the long term or is it just a short-term effect?

This could be an exciting discussion for investors. Should you buy now or wait and see? The dividend policy and the future plans of Siemens Healthineers could also be interesting factors here. What do you think of the current situation? 📉

The euro has been weakening since September 2024 and is approaching parity with the dollar - the currency ratio would then be one to one. The dollar is currently still worth around 1.04 euros, up seven cents in the fall.

German companies with strong business in the dollar area can benefit from this development in several ways.

"The strength of the dollar is good news for exporting German companies," comment the analysts at Baader Bank. This is because their products are comparatively cheaper in the USA.

A weak euro makes exports cheaper, making European products and services cheaper and more competitive in the dollar area and thus in large parts of America and Asia. Import duties in the USA would make products more expensive again - but in the end, the two effects could almost balance each other out.

For example, the medical technology group Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-5,55%) is hardly worried about the threat of import duties in the USA. The company shares the fear of a global trade war. However, the company expects that the headwind from tariffs and the tailwind from the stronger dollar will largely balance each other out, says CFO Jochen Schmitz.

The tailwind from the strong dollar could remain with companies for a long time to come. "The euro will become a really weak currency. It should quickly fall below parity with the dollar and be at 0.95 euros per dollar quite quickly," expects the well-known fund manager Jens Ehrhardt, founder and CEO of DJE Kapital.

The European Central Bank (ECB) expects the strength of the dollar to ease the burden on exporting companies in the event of possible import tariffs in the USA. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch says: "The euro would have to be brought to parity in order to essentially compensate for a tariff of ten percent."

The many companies that produce locally in the USA and sell their goods there also benefit from a strong dollar. This is because the effect on the balance sheet is even stronger as soon as companies convert their earnings generated in the dollar zone into their home currency. For every dollar earned, there are currently seven euro cents more than in the fall.

Companies are already feeling the effects. For example, Infineon $IFX (-8,33%) raised its forecast for the current financial year a few days ago. Previously, the Munich-based semiconductor manufacturer had assumed a slight decline in turnover. The DAX-listed company now expects stable to slightly increasing revenue in 2024.

One reason is the strength of the dollar. Infineon is now assuming a euro-dollar exchange rate of 1.05 euros this year - after previously assuming 1.10 euros. "This adjustment and the better exchange rate in the first quarter increase our revenue expectations by around 450 million euros," calculates Group CEO Jochen Hanebeck.

The estimates show: The biggest currency beneficiaries of a weaker euro are highly globalized companies with strong business in the dollar area. In addition to Infineon, these include $BAYN (-6,12%) Bayer with its strong US business and the DAX heavyweight Airbus $AIR (-8,31%). The European joint venture mainly builds aircraft in Germany and France, but they are sold worldwide at dollar prices.

Rheinmetall $RHM (-10,98%) also benefits: Armaments are usually invoiced in dollars, but the Düsseldorf-based group reports them in euros, which results in higher revenues from the conversion alone.

There are also profiteers in the financial sector. Deutsche Bank $DBK (-10%) CFO James von Moltke hinted at the outlook for 2025: There is potential for higher Group revenues than the 32 billion euros targeted so far, he said. So far, the bank has been planning with an exchange rate of 1.10 dollars per euro - i.e. a euro that is more than five cents stronger than it is currently worth. However, as Deutsche Bank has more income in dollars than costs in dollars and does not hedge this currency risk, it benefits from a weak euro, according to Moltke.

The weak euro also helps the automotive industry. Many luxury vehicles are produced in Germany, but sold worldwide, especially in the USA. Porsche $P911 (-4,36%) sells every fourth car there - but does not produce a single one.

"This will have a positive impact of several hundred million euros on Porsche's balance sheet," says a Frankfurt stock trader with a view to this year's results. However, US tariffs on imports of European cars could offset this positive effect.

Source & graphic: Handelsblatt

This morning on 13.01. Siemens AG has published $SIE (-7,45%) published its figures for Q1 - 2025. Enclosed you will find my comprehensive classification of the annual report [1] and also the transcript of the earnings call [2].

• As always, I try to write as clearly as possible. I have made every effort to check all data carefully and to support all statements with sources.
• Current share in my portfolio after getquin Deepdive at just under 2.5%, also as an individual share.

📅 First of all, the context: Why is Q1 2025 already being reported?

Siemens has a different financial year that begins on October 1. This means that Q1 covers the period from October 1 to December 31, 2024 in fiscal year 2025.

Q1 - 2025 vs. estimates

[3]

Overview: Good figures with some challenges

Siemens was able to slightly increase its revenue in the first quarter of 2025, with profit even growing by over 50%. One important reason for this is a special gain from the sale of Innomotics, a former Siemens subsidiary for drive technology [1].

The most important figures at a glance:

• Turnover+3% to €18.4 billion
• Incoming orders: -7 % to € 20.1 billion
• Profit after tax: +52% to € 3.9 billion (incl. special effect - excluded from EBIT above*1)
• Free cash flow: +51% to € 1.6 billion

👉 Without the special effect from the Innomotics sale (€ 2.1 billion profit), the profit would have been significantly lower [1].

Profit from continuing operations in Q1 2025 amounted to € 1.801 billion and in Q1 2024 the figure was € 2.569 billion. This corresponds to a decrease of 30 % [1].

Classification of the decline in profit compared to the previous year:

1️⃣ Q1 2024 had a one-time positive effect of €500 million from the transfer of Siemens Energy shares to the Siemens Pension Trust. This effect will no longer apply in 2025.

2️⃣ Digital Industries recorded a significant decline in profits, primarily due to the fall in sales in the automation business (-24%).

3️⃣ Additional restructuring costs had a negative impact on earnings.

👉 Without the positive one-off effect from 2024, the decline would not have been quite as severe, but the difficult situation at Digital Industries still had a clear impact [1].

Another highlight: The order backlog reached a new record of €118 billion, even though incoming orders fell in Q1 [2]. - 118 billion € - insane! 🤯

How does the decline compare to the record?

Siemens has many large long-term orders that are not processed immediately. Even if fewer new orders come in during a quarter, the total number of open orders remains high [1].

Why has order intake fallen?

The decline is partly due to the fact that particularly large Mobility orders were concluded in the previous year. At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainties and a weaker willingness to invest in Europe and China are influencing order intake [2].

🏷️ What is behind the sale of Innomotics?

Innomotics was a Siemens subsidiary for large electric motors, drives and industrial drive systems, important for sectors such as energy, chemicals and infrastructure. Siemens sold the business because it no longer fitted in with its core business.

• The sale generated €3.1 billion in liquidity, which strengthened Siemens' financial position.
• The resulting special gain of €2.1 billion after tax significantly raises the profit for this quarter.

The Siemens Groups at a glance

Share of total sales:

• Digital Industries: 22,1%
• Smart Infrastructure: 28,8%
• Mobility: 16,2%
• Siemens Healthineers: 29,9%
• Siemens Financial Services: 0,5%

Reconciliation & Other: 2,5%

-> includes consolidation adjustments and intercompany effects

📊 Digital Industries (Automation & Software)

What does this area do?

Siemens is a global leader in industrial automation and software for factories. This involves robot control systems, production software and automation solutions for the automotive, pharmaceutical and electronics industries, for example.

Incoming orders+6 % to € 4.2 billion

Turnover: -11% to € 4.1 billion

Earnings: -34% to € 588 million

Why are things going badly?

Although automation is seen as the industry of the future, there is currently a decline in sales due to low capacity utilization and destocking by customers.

Factory automation is particularly affected with a decline of -24% (e.g. for mechanical engineering or semiconductors).

Customers have invested massively in recent years and are now reducing inventories, which partly explains the lack of sales, but at the same time customers are placing new orders for the period after the existing inventories have been reduced [2]

The software business (+15%) is also generating new orders and is growing strongly, even though representative sales in the automation sector are declining [2].

However, China is showing initial signs of recovery, which could help in the medium term.

🏡 Smart Infrastructure (energy & building technology)

What does this area do?

It's all about energy supply, building automation and infrastructure. Siemens helps companies to work more efficiently and sustainably, from smart buildings to energy grid feed-in.

Known products/services:

• Charging stations for electric cars
• Building management systems for smart office buildings
• Switchgear for power grids

Incoming orders+6 % to € 6.2 billion

Turnover: +10 % to € 5.3 billion

EarningsStable at € 891 million

👉 Demand for data center infrastructure and energy solutions was particularly strong -> USA (+17%) and Middle East particularly strong [2].

🚆 Mobility (railroad & transport infrastructure)

What does this sector do?

Siemens builds and maintains trains, rail infrastructure and signaling technology. This is about fast, efficient and sustainable mobility systems.

Well-known products/services:

• ICE trains for Deutsche Bahn
• Metro systems for major cities
• Digital interlockings for railroad lines

Incoming orders: -53 % to € 2.7 billion

Turnover+10 % to € 3.0 billion

EarningsStable at € 249 million

Why have incoming orders fallen so sharply?

👉 The same quarter of the previous year contained huge major orders, e.g. for the railroads in Germany & Austria.

👉 There will still be orders in 2025, but not on this scale - a purely statistical effect.

🏥 Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-5,55%)
(medical technology)*2

What does this division do?

Siemens is a leader in medical and diagnostic technology. The company supplies imaging systems, laboratory diagnostics and digital health solutions.

Known products/services:

• MRI & CT devices for hospitals
• Laboratory diagnostics for blood tests & cancer research
• AI-supported diagnostic software

Incoming orders+13 % to € 6.3 billion

Turnover: +6 % to € 5.5 billion

Earnings: +14 % to € 789 million

👉 The Imaging business (MRI & CT) is doing particularly well.

💰 Siemens Financial Services (Finance Division)

What does this division do?

Siemens offers leasing and financing services, e.g. for companies that want to modernize their infrastructure.

Known products/services:

• Leasing for medical technology
• Project financing for renewable energies
• Industrial investments

ResultDecrease from € 260 million to € 113 million

Why this decline?

👉 In the same quarter of the previous year, Siemens sold an investment that generated a one-off profit of €131 million.

Without this one-off effect, earnings would have remained stable.

Conclusion:

• Siemens Healthineers is the largest division, accounting for just under 30% of total sales.

• Smart Infrastructure (Energy & Building Automation) follows with 28.8%, driven by high demand in the USA.

• Digital Industries (Automation & Software) contributes 22.1%, but is struggling with weak demand in factory automation.

• Mobility (Trains & Infrastructure) accounts for 16.2%, but is suffering from the sharp decline in order intake.

• Siemens Financial Services remains a small but profitable division (0.5% share of sales)

🍃 Indirect connection to Siemens Energy $ENR (-9,65%)

Siemens still holds a minority stake in Siemens Energy, but has transferred parts of it to Siemens Pension-Trust e.V. This resulted in a one-off profit of €500 million in Q1 2024, which increased Siemens' earnings at the time [4].

👉 This year, this effect is missing. Siemens Energy also remains challenging: the wind power business (Gamesa) is struggling with production problems and anti-dumping duties [5].

Anti-dumping duty in the USA:

The USA recently (28/01/25) imposed an anti-dumping duty of 28.55% on wind tower components from Siemens Gamesa and Windar Renovables. This affects components manufactured in Spain and could affect Siemens Gamesa's competitiveness in the important US market [5].

🤝 Altair takeover: Siemens strengthens its software business

With the acquisition of Altair Engineering for around 10 billion US dollars, Siemens has taken a significant step towards strengthening its software & AI portfolio.

• Altair represents a significant expansion in the area of simulation technologies and machine learning and is expected to support Siemens in further expanding its position as a leading provider of industrial software.
• This acquisition is part of Siemens' strategy to drive digital transformation and create the most comprehensive AI-powered design and simulation portfolio in the world [6].

Prospects
Altair acquisition

• The acquisition is expected to increase Siemens' digital business revenue by €600 million and have a long-term positive impact of over one billion dollars annually [6].
• This strategic investment is expected to accelerate the digital and sustainable transformation of Siemens' customers by connecting the real and digital worlds.
• The acquisition process is still under regulatory review and could be completed by the end of 2025.

📌 AI & Industry 4.0: Siemens remains a pioneer [2]

Siemens is actively driving the introduction of industrial AI:

• Use of digital twins & AI to increase efficiency (e.g. Red Bull Racing, smart factories in Erlangen & Chengdu).
• Acquisition of Altair to strengthen the software business.
• Major projects such as Jet Zero (AI-supported aircraft design to reduce fuel consumption).

[7]

📌 Sustainability & decarbonization [2]

Siemens actively helps customers to reduce their CO₂ emissions:

• Products from 2024 save over 144 million tons of CO₂ over their lifetime.
• Own CO₂ emissions already reduced by 60% since 2019, target for 2025 achieved ahead of schedule.

🔮Outlook for 2025 [2]:

• Macroeconomic uncertainties remain, but Siemens confirms 3-7% sales growth.
• The order backlog provides stability, but growth also depends on industrial automation.
• AI & software as growth drivers, especially with Altair.
• Siemens focuses on decarbonization to open up new business areas.

🧠Fazit: light and shade in the first quarter

Siemens got off to a strong start in the first quarter of 2025, driven by solid revenue growth and an impressive rise in profits thanks to the Innomotics sale.

Despite a decline in order intake, especially in areas such as Mobility, the order backlog remains robust.

The strategic acquisition of Altair and the focus on AI and industrial digitalization position Siemens very well for the future.

The company is also showing a clear focus on sustainability and decarbonization.

With a stable foundation and a positive outlook for 2025, Siemens remains on a promising growth path, even if macroeconomic uncertainties persist.

I am holding my position for the long term and am excited to see where the journey takes us.

Thank you for reading 🤝

• Which areas do you find most exciting?

_________

*1

(The discrepancy of approx. 260 million between EBIT + sale of Innomotics and profit after tax is primarily due to interest and tax expenses)

*2

Siemens Healthineers is a majority holding of Siemens AG. This means that Siemens still has control over Healthineers, but the company is listed independently on the stock exchange.

📌 Important facts about the relationship between Siemens and Siemens Healthineers:

• Spun off in 2017 & listed on the stock exchange in 2018, but Siemens still holds a majority stake of around 75%.
• Independent company with a focus on medical technology (MRI, CT, laboratory diagnostics, AI-supported healthcare solutions).
• Siemens Healthineers has its own financial reports & strategy, but most of the profits flow back to Siemens.

👉 In short: Siemens Healthineers operates independently, but Siemens continues to call the shots as the main shareholder and benefits financially from the company's success

_________

Sources:

[1] https://assets.new.siemens.com/siemens/assets/api/uuid:5977f44e-8153-4cf9-b47c-a7cc3846781b/2025-q1-earnings-release-de.pdf

[2] https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/cc7ttbkc/

[3] https://web.quartr.com/companies/3485

[4] https://press.siemens.com/global/en/pressrelease/siemens-transfers-8-percent-stake-siemens-energy-ag-siemens-pension-fund

https://press.siemens.com/global/en/pressrelease/earnings-release-and-financial-results-q1-fy-2024

[5] https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2025-02-10/ee-uu-fija-un-arancel-antidumping-del-2855-para-las-torres-eolicas-de-siemens-gamesa-y-windar.html

[6] https://m.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/uebernahme-als-meilenstein-siemens-verspricht-sich-von-altair-uebernahme-hunderten-millionen-euro_id_260442962.html

[7] https://assets.new.siemens.com/siemens/assets/api/uuid:e5bbbc23-01c9-4214-a050-0c671b3e9d6b/2025-q1-presentation-en.pdf

Walt Disney surprises positively thanks to streaming business + Siemens Healthineers increases profit + Trump's tariffs could cost US industry billions

Walt Disney $DIS (-6,12%)surprises positively thanks to 'Moana 2' and streaming business

• Thanks to a strong streaming business and the success of the animated film "Moana 2", the US media company Walt Disney has exceeded market expectations at the start of its new financial year.
• Sales and profits were higher than expected, according to the figures presented by Disney in Burbank on Wednesday.
• In other business areas, however, including the TV business and the operation of the theme parks, things were less rosy.
• The stock market also criticized the fact that the forecast was not raised.
• The share price fell in pre-market US trading. In the first quarter to the end of December, Disney's turnover rose by 5 percent to 24.7 billion US dollars (23.9 billion euros) compared to the same period in the previous year.
• Adjusted operating profit rose by almost a third to 5.1 billion dollars.
• The profit attributable to shareholders climbed even more strongly to just under 2.6 billion dollars.
• The quarter was a strong start to the financial year, said Disney CEO Bob Iger according to the press release.
• He remains confident about the growth strategy.

Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-5,55%)American demand and restructuring

• The medical technology group Siemens Healthineers has made a surprisingly good start to the new fiscal year.
• In the three months to the end of December, total sales climbed by almost six percent to just under 5.5 billion euros, as the Siemens subsidiary announced in Erlangen on Thursday.
• Excluding currency and portfolio effects, the increase amounted to 5.7 percent.
• Business in the Americas and in the Asia, Pacific, Japan region grew in particular.
• In China, however, revenue fell by a mid-single-digit percentage due to the ongoing delays in the awarding of orders.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased by eleven percent to 822 million euros, mainly due to cost savings in connection with restructuring in the Diagnostics division.
• Sales and operating profit thus exceeded analysts' expectations.
• The bottom line for Siemens Healthineers shareholders was a profit of 474 million euros after 431 million in the previous year.
• Group CEO Bernd Montag maintained the targets for the fiscal year.

Trump's tariffs could cost the US industry billions

• Ford$F (+1,16%) -Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned the White House that long-term punitive tariffs of 25 percent on deliveries from Mexico and Canada would hit the US car industry hard.
• This would cost American manufacturers billions of dollars in profits and have serious consequences for jobs in the USA, Farley said after presenting quarterly figures.
• US car giants such as Ford and General Motors $GM (-2,84%)had expanded production in neighboring countries in recent years.
• US President Donald Trump recently imposed additional tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Mexico and Canada - but then quickly postponed them for 30 days.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Ascencio SCA EUR 4.30

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:30 Honeywell quarterly figures
• 13:00 Philip Morris | Conocophillips Quarterly figures
• 22:00 Expedia Group quarterly figures
• 22:05 Amazon | Verisign quarterly figures
• No time specified: Yum! Brands | Hershey | Air Products and Chemicals | Eli Lilly | Bristol Myers Squibb | Intercontinental Exchange | KKR & Co | Sonos | Warner Music quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 06:30 Societe Generale annual results
• 07:00 Aurubis | Siemens Healthineers | Rational | Arcelormittal | ING Groep | Volvo Car Annual results
• 07:30 Hannover Re Renewals 2025 | Siemens Healthineers PK
• 08:00 Astrazeneca | A.P. Moeller-Maersk Annual Results
• 08:30 Siemens Healthineers Analyst Conference
• 09:00 Hannover Re PK
• 10:00 Qiagen annual results press conference
• 12:00 Linde quarterly figures
• 15:00 Kion Pre-Close-Call | Linde PK
• 16:00 Qiagen Analyst Conference
• 17:45 Vinci annual results
• 18:00 LOreal annual results

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: New orders December seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +2.0% yoy previous: -5.4% yoy
• 11:00 EU: December Eurozone Retail Sales PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.50% previously: 4.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 214,000 previously: 207,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (1st release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +1.4% yoy Q3: +2.2% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +3.3% yoy Q3: +0.8% yoy
• 20:30 US: Fed Governor Waller, speech at the Atlantic Council at 'Navigating the Future of Payments' event

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (-5,77%) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-5,39%) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (-5,55%) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-6,66%) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (-7,56%) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (-5,6%) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (-7,49%) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (-3,06%) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (-6,55%) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (-2,08%) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-2,35%) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-7,52%) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (-1,22%) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (-8,7%) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-4,14%) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-4,6%) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (-6,82%) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-4,34%) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (-4,58%) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-3,71%) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (+0,82%) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (-0,67%) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (+1,01%) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-5,19%) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (-6,27%) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-8,5%) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-7,45%) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

Analyst updates, 18.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- MORGAN STANLEY raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 212 to EUR 220. Overweight. $SIE (-7,45%)

- HSBC raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 660 to EUR 700. Buy. $RHM (-10,98%)

- HSBC raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 33.50 to EUR 34. Buy. $DTE (-4,46%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 275 to EUR 310. Buy. $ALV (-8,43%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 52 to EUR 57. Buy. $ENR (-9,65%)

- UBS upgrades AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from USD 338 to USD 375. $APD (-6,2%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 127 to CHF 138. Outperform. $SREN (-6,98%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 523 to EUR 551. Overweight. $MUV2 (-6,68%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for HANNOVER RÜCK from EUR 206 to EUR 217. Underweight. $HNR1 (-5,85%)

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- MORGAN STANLEY lowers the target price for BAYER from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Equal-Weight. $BAYN (-6,12%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the target price for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60.50 to EUR 59. Buy. $SHL (-5,55%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades KNAUS TABBERT to Hold. Target price EUR 15. $KTA (-5,14%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SGL CARBON from EUR 10.60 to EUR 9. Buy. $SGL (-4,9%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for PVA TEPLA from EUR 18 to EUR 14.50. Hold. $TPE (-10,41%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 340 to EUR 320. Buy. $KER (-6,24%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades BECHTLE to Neutral. Target price 37 EUR. $BC8

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 27 to EUR 23. Equal-Weight. $UTDI (-7,38%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for 1&1 from EUR 19 to EUR 17. Equal-Weight. $1U1 (-9,33%)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for AIR LIQUIDE from EUR 195 to EUR 190. Buy. $AI (-0,98%)

- HSBC downgrades PORSCHE SE from Hold to Reduce and lowers target price from EUR 36 to EUR 26. $PAH3 (-3,65%)

Analsyst updates, 08.11.

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- GOLDMAN upgrades BIONTECH from Neutral to Buy and raises price target from USD 90 to USD 137. $BNTX (-3,55%)

- BOFA raises target price for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 9 to USD 13. Neutral. $UAA (-1,85%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 29 to EUR 35. Hold. $DHE

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 197 to EUR 200. Buy. $SIE (-7,45%)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HOCHTIEF from EUR 135 to EUR 138. Buy. $HOT

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60 to EUR 62. Buy. $SHL (-5,55%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 19. Buy. $NDX1

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RATIONAL from 832 EUR to 841 EUR. Hold. $RAA

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AXA from 37 EUR to 39 EUR. Buy. $CS (-5,89%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for BASTEI LÜBBE from EUR 11.70 to EUR 12.20. Buy. $BST

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ARCELORMITTAL from EUR 28 to EUR 29. Buy. $MT (-7,3%)

- DZ BANK raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 130 to CHF 140. Buy. $SREN (-6,98%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 99 to EUR 110. Neutral. $HEI (-6,75%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 35 to EUR 41. Hold. $DTG (-5,57%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX upgrades REDCARE PHARMACY from Reduce to Hold. $RDC (-2,11%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HENKEL from EUR 67 to EUR 73. Neutral. $HEN (-3,1%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 27 to EUR 28. Neutral. $FNTN

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for ABOUT YOU from EUR 3.10 to EUR 3.40. Underweight. $YOU (-0,45%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 108 to EUR 125. Overweight. $NEM

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- BOFA lowers the price target for PINTEREST from USD 45 to USD 39. Buy. $PINS

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 56 to EUR 55. Buy. $DTG (-5,57%)

- UBS lowers the price target for JCDECAUX from EUR 21.60 to EUR 18.50. Neutral. $DEC (-6,47%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ADTRAN HOLDING from EUR 9.70 to EUR 9.30. Buy. $ADTN (-5,26%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 17. Outperform. $NDX1

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VESTAS from DKK 99 to DKK 80. Underweight. $VWS (-10,01%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 59. Buy. $FRA (-2,89%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for GSK from GBP 15.50 to GBP 14.50. Equal-Weight. $GSK

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 23 to EUR 21. Buy. $COP

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 41 to EUR 39. Buy. $JUN3 (-11,64%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 87 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN

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- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises its price target for BMW from EUR 90 to EUR 95. Buy. $DBK (-10%)

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for QUALCOMM from USD 200 to USD 215. Outperform. $QCOM (-7,67%)

- UBS raises the price target for LYFT from USD 13 to USD 18. Neutral. $LYFT (-4,64%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTH from EUR 60.50 to EUR 62.50. Overweight. $SHL (-5,55%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for KONTRON from EUR 28 to EUR 28.40. Buy. $KTN (-8,56%)

- UBS upgrades KINGSPAN GROUP from Neutral to Buy. Target price 90 EUR. $KRX (-6,82%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ZEAL NETWORK from EUR 59 to EUR 64. Buy. $TIMA (-9,58%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 42.70 to EUR 43.70. Buy. $VNA (-2,32%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for AHOLD DELHAIZE from EUR 30 to EUR 31. Equal-Weight. $AD (-2,31%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for FMC from EUR 38.50 to EUR 39. Equal-Weight. $FMC (-8,19%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18 to EUR 18.40. Overweight. $CBK (-6,01%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for PUMA SE from EUR 40 to EUR 44. Neutral. $PUM (-2,41%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 13.96 to GBP 14.15. Overweight. $TKWY (-1,68%)

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- JEFFERIES downgrades PALANTIR from Hold to Underperform. Target price USD 28. $PLTR (-11,65%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 1100 to DKK 1000. Buy. $NOVO B (-6,66%)

- RBC lowers the price target for NIKE from 82 USD to 80 USD. Sector Perform. $NKE (+3,05%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades ASM INTERNATIONAL to Outperform. Target price EUR 960. $ASM (-4,46%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades HENSOLDT from Buy to Hold. Target price EUR 34. $HAG (-12,95%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for ZALANDO from EUR 40 to EUR 36. Buy. $ZAL (-7,88%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 165 to DKK 150. Hold. $VWS (-10,01%)

- BOFA downgrades SIEMENS ENERGY from Buy to Neutral. Target price EUR 40. $ENR (-9,65%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 28.50 to EUR 28. Sell. $VNA (-2,32%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for TEAMVIEWER from EUR 18 to EUR 15.50. Overweight. $TMV (-2,63%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KLÖCKNER & CO from EUR 6 to EUR 5.70. Buy. $KCOB

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the target price for NORMA GROUP from EUR 32 to EUR 27. Buy. $NOEJ (-12,21%)

- WARBURG downgrades EDAG ENGINEERING from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 13 to EUR 9.50. $ED4 (-0,76%)

- LBBW lowers the price target for ALLGEIER from EUR 24 to EUR 20. Buy. $AEIA

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for HENKEL from EUR 79 to EUR 77. Equal-Weight. $HEN (-3,1%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for KRONES from EUR 157 to EUR 154. Buy. $KRN (-10,28%)

Siemens healthineers Q3 2024 $SHL (-5,55%)

Financial performance:

• Revenue: Siemens Healthineers achieved comparable revenue growth of 5.2% in fiscal year 2024, excluding antigen testing. Including these tests, growth amounted to 4.7%, despite ongoing challenges in China.
• Adjusted EBIT: Adjusted EBIT increased to around €3.5 billion, with a margin improvement of 70 basis points to 15.7%.
• Net profit: Net profit increased by 28% to €1.959 billion.

Balance sheet overview:

• As at September 30, 2024, total assets amounted to EUR 46.055 billion, down slightly compared to EUR 46.684 billion in the previous year. Cash and cash equivalents, on the other hand, increased to EUR 2.683 billion, compared to EUR 2.247 billion in the previous year.

Details of the profit and loss account:

• Turnover: Turnover in the 2024 financial year amounted to EUR 22.363 billion, compared to EUR 21.680 billion in the 2023 financial year.
• Adjusted basic earnings per share: This increased from 2.14 euros to 2.23 euros.

Cash flow overview:

• Free cash flow (FCF): FCF increased by over 60% to EUR 2.1 billion, boosted by higher profits and lower inventories.
• Operating cash flow: Operating cash flow increased to 2.826 billion euros, compared to 2.119 billion euros in the previous year.

Key figures and profitability metrics:

• EBIT margin: The adjusted EBIT margin improved to 15.7%, compared to 15.0% in the previous year.
• Cash conversion rate: The cash conversion rate increased from 0.7 in the 2023 financial year to 0.9.

Segment information:

• Imaging: Sales increased to EUR 12.267 billion, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 21.1%.
• Diagnostics: Sales fell slightly to EUR 4.417 billion, but the adjusted EBIT margin improved significantly to 5.3%.
• Varian: Sales increased to €3.866 billion, with a margin of 16.5%.
• Advanced Therapies: Sales amounted to 2.075 billion euros, with a margin of 16.3%.

Competitive position:

• Siemens Healthineers continues to expand its market share in the Imaging, Varian and Advanced Therapies segments, supported by significant innovations and a strong equipment book-to-bill ratio of 1.11.

Forecasts and management commentary:

• For fiscal year 2025, Siemens Healthineers expects mid single-digit revenue growth in the Imaging and Advanced Therapies segments and high single-digit growth in the Varian segment. Margin expansion is forecast for all segments.

Risks and opportunities:

• Challenges: Currency-related effects and the difficult market conditions in China.
• Opportunities: Expansion of access to healthcare services and continuous innovation.

Summary of results:

Positive aspects:

• Significant increase in free cash flow of over 60%.
• Strong sales growth in the Americas and EMEA regions.
• Improvement in the adjusted EBIT margin to 15.7%.
• Successful market share gains in key segments.
• Positive net profit growth of 28%.

Negative aspects:

• Decline in sales in the Chinese market.
• Negative impact of currency effects on margins.
• Decline in sales in the Diagnostics segment.
• Increased provisions for refunds in Italy.
• Challenges in the Chinese market impacting overall growth.