Dear Community, usually classic consumer staples such as P&G $PG (-4,13%) or Unilever $ULVR (-3,5%) usually come through times of falling share prices relatively unscathed and sometimes even gain popularity as a crisis-proof foundation with strong dividends.

About two weeks ago, I opened a small leveraged position on Beiersdorf $BEI (-0,89%) as I consider the share to be very undervalued and most analysts share this opinion. The position is really small as I have never traded leveraged products before and see it more as a nice exercise than a path to riches. I'm currently up around 3% (which isn't five euros due to the small size) and the knockout is €88, so there's really a lot of room.

I have to say, however, that I had clearly underestimated Trump's disastrous tariffs.

Of course, no one here has a crystal ball, but perhaps the older guys can share their experiences? Do collapsing share prices also take non-cyclical consumer goods down with them in the long term or are they completely invulnerable and even rise unconcernedly? Or do they now rise for a few days at the moment of the shock because of the short-term influx and then stagnate as general consumption also becomes more restrained and more cheap brands are bought for the household? That unemployment in the US and Europe will rise and consumption will become even more expensive due to higher prices is to be expected, or do you see it differently? I wonder whether I should simply take my current profit or whether I can continue to assume that the fair value of Beiersdorf is around EUR 145 (which was my firm conviction a week ago).

Which Dax shares do you have in your portfolio?

Source: https://t.co/1KCO9l8ZsE

#dax
#dividend
#dividende
#dividends

$ADS (-0,23%)
$AIR (-8,31%)
$ALV (-8,43%)
$BAS (-5%)
$BAYN (-6,12%)
$BMW (-5,51%)
$BEI (-0,89%)

At 53 billion euros, the 40 DAX companies are likely to pay out almost one billion euros more this year than a year ago - more than ever before.

The reason for the strong development is high consolidated profits and unexpectedly rising dividends at a good dozen companies, including $ALV (-8,43%) Allianz, $MUV2 (-6,68%) Munich Re and $RHM (-10,98%) Rheinmetall.

At 109 billion euros net profit, the DAX companies are likely to have earned as much in 2024 as in the previous year, according to Handelsblatt calculations. Slump in earnings for the three car manufacturers $BMW (-5,51%) BMW, $MBG (-5,9%) Mercedes and $VOW (-3,61%) VW will be offset by companies in other sectors, in particular the major insurers Allianz, Munich Re and $HNR1 (-5,85%) Hannover Re, but also $DTE (-4,46%) Deutsche Telekom, $HEN (-3,1%) Henkel and $EOAN (-6,15%) Eon.

More than a dozen DAX companies have announced higher dividends than the market had previously expected. For example $ALV (-8,43%) 15.40 euros per share after 13.80 euros in the previous year. Analysts had forecast just under 15 euros. The insurer is thus distributing just under six billion euros. This is a record in the German corporate landscape.

The biggest jump is at $MUV2 (-6,68%) Munich Re: The reinsurer is increasing its dividend by five euros per share to 20 euros.

The two healthcare specialists $FRE (-4,88%) Fresenius and $FME (-6,55%) Fresenius Medical Care, the brand manufacturer $HEN (-3,1%) Henkel, the automotive supplier $BTR Continental, the $CBK (-6,01%) Commerzbank, $RHM (-10,98%) Rheinmetall and $HNR1 (-5,85%) Hannover Re have raised their dividends, in some cases significantly more than expected. This is also due to rising profits, which justify a higher profit share for shareholders.

The largest dividend payers in the DAX are

• $ALV (-8,43%)
• 
  $DTE (-4,46%)
• 
  $MBG (-5,9%)
• 
  $SIE (-7,45%)
• 
  $VOW (-3,61%)

Like the car manufacturers, a number of companies in the DAX remain below the usual international payout ratios, including the family-run groups $BEI (-0,89%) Beiersdorf and $MRK (-5,28%) Merck. They pass on less than 30 percent of their profits. This leaves enough of a buffer so that dividends do not have to be reduced immediately in more difficult times.

Germany's most valuable group, $SAP (-5,31%) SAP, with a payout ratio of 85%, is pushing the limit: net profit of 3.1 billion euros in the past year compares with a total dividend payout of 2.7 billion euros. However, the profit was burdened by a one-off effect.

So far, a total of 20 companies have increased their dividends, with only $BAS (-5%) BASF and the three car manufacturers. Four companies have yet to do so: $RWE (-6,04%) RWE, $SY1 (+0,31%) Symrise and $VNA (-2,32%) Vonovia are likely to increase their dividends, while analysts expect $PAH3 (-3,65%) analysts expect a reduction at Porsche Holding.

Source (excerpt) & chart: Handelsblatt, 15.03.25

In the world of SAP $SAP (-5,31%) Executive Board salaries are rising sharply, mainly due to a booming share price. CEO Christian Klein earns 19 million euros, a large part of which is based on performance targets linked to turnover and the share price. Chief Financial Officer Dominik Asam earns 3.2 million euros, while Thomas Saueressig receives 8.2 million euros for the Consulting & Customers division.

At Beiersdorf $BEI (-0,89%) the core brand Nivea remains strong, with sales of 5.6 billion euros and organic growth of 9 percent. However, the luxury brand La Prairie is struggling in China with a 6.2 percent decline in sales. Tesa recorded slight growth of 1.9 percent to 1.7 billion euros, while the return on sales could fall slightly.

Amazon $AMZN (-3,47%) unveiled a new quantum computing chip called Ocelot, which makes error correction more efficient and could reduce costs by up to 90%. In contrast to competitors such as Google and Microsoft, Amazon is focusing on integrating error correction directly into the chip architecture instead of just increasing the qubit count. The prototype could accelerate the development of more resource-efficient quantum computers in the future.

Source:

SAP: https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/tech/sap-so-viel-verdient-ceo-christian-klein-vorstandsgehaelter-a-1b0907e4-de17-4719-ac51-42bbcaa864c6

Baiersdorf: https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/beiersdorf-tesa-nivea-mit-weniger-wachstum-nach-rekordjahr-2024-a-18b6ac7b-e405-44ab-a609-fde9c1124bea

Amazon: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-unveils-quantum-computing-chip-to-keep-pace-with-rivals-microsoft-google-110025057.html

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for DELL from USD 155 to USD 165. Buy. $DELL (-6,54%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for ANALOG DEVICES from USD 247 to USD 261. Buy. $ADI (-8,18%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for HP INC from USD 35 to USD 38. Neutral. $HPQ (-4,64%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 40.20 to EUR 42.30. Buy. $VNA (-2,32%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH upgrades STRATEC from Hold to Buy. Target price 40 EUR. $SBS4

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 235 to EUR 237. Buy. $DB1 (-7,96%)

- MORGAN STANLEY raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 33 to EUR 38. Overweight. $DTE (-4,46%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for TRATON from EUR 31.80 to EUR 35.50. Neutral. $8TRA (-8,68%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for BRENNTAG from EUR 94 to EUR 95. Buy. $BNR (-5,98%)

- BERENBERG upgrades EQUINOR from Hold to Buy and raises target price from NOK 290 to NOK 325. $EQNR (-7,12%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for BEIERSDORF from EUR 150 to EUR 160. Overweight. $BEI (-0,89%)

- JPMORGAN upgrades HENKEL from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 82 to EUR 100. $HEN (-3,1%)

- JPMORGAN upgrades BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO to Neutral. $BATS (-4,36%)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for EON from EUR 15.50 to EUR 16. Overweight. $EOAN (-6,15%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for AUTO1 from EUR 12.10 to EUR 17.10. Overweight. $AG1 (-14,21%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- STIFEL lowers the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 207 to EUR 202. Buy. $SIE (-7,45%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HP INC from USD 41 to USD 40. Overweight. $HPQ (-4,64%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for LANXESS from EUR 40 to EUR 37. Buy. $LXS (-9,26%)

- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for BASF from EUR 49 to EUR 46. Neutral. $BAS (-5%)

- RBC lowers the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18 to EUR 17.25. Sector Perform. $CBK (-6,01%)

- RBC lowers the target price for ING from EUR 17.50 to EUR 16.75. Sector-Perform. $ING (-7,27%)

- RBC lowers the price target for BNP PARIBAS from EUR 79 to EUR 78. Outperform. $BNP (-8,1%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ELRINGKLINGER from EUR 6.70 to EUR 6. Neutral. $ELLRY (-1,92%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 130 to EUR 120. Overweight. $SY1 (+0,31%)

Beiersdorf Q3 2024 $BEI (-0,89%)

Financial performance: Beiersdorf recorded solid organic sales growth of 6.5% in the first nine months of 2024, reaching sales of €7.5 billion. The Consumer Business Segment made a significant contribution to this, with growth of 7.3% and sales of €6.3 billion. The tesa business segment also made a positive contribution, with growth of 3.1%, corresponding to sales of 1.3 billion euros.

Balance sheet analysis: Strong sales growth combined with strategic investments in innovation indicate a solid financial position. The focus on a balanced growth strategy across regions and segments speaks for prudent financial management.

Income statement: The income statement shows significant growth in key brands, with NIVEA achieving organic sales growth of 9.4% and the derma brands Eucerin and Aquaphor achieving growth of 8.8%. However, La Prairie recorded a decline of 7.3 % due to challenges in the Chinese market.

Cash flow analysis: The company's ongoing investment in innovation and market expansion, such as the launch of Epicelline, indicates a strategic allocation of financial resources to support growth initiatives.

Key factors and profitability: The EBIT margin of the Consumer business segment is expected to increase by 50 basis points compared to the previous year, indicating improved profitability despite challenges in the luxury segment.

Segment analysis:

• Consumer Business Segment: Achieved organic sales growth of 7.3%, driven by strong performances in North America and emerging markets.
• tesa Business Segment: Recorded growth of 3.1%, despite difficulties in the automotive sector, but with positive developments in electronics and packaging.

Competitive analysis: Beiersdorf's focus on innovation, for example through the launch of Epicelline, gives the company an advantage over its competitors. However, the luxury segment, especially La Prairie, faces intense competition and market problems in China.

Forecasts and management comments: The company confirms its forecast for the full year with organic sales growth of 6-8% for the Group and the consumer segment. Management remains optimistic for the fourth quarter and expects a strong performance driven by innovation and market expansion.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: Continued weakness in the Chinese luxury market and challenges in the automotive sector could impact growth.
• Opportunities: A strong innovation portfolio, particularly in the derma segment, and expansion into emerging markets offer significant growth opportunities.

Summary and strategic implications: Beiersdorf's strategic focus on innovation and market expansion has led to strong growth in 2024. The company's ability to adapt to market changes, especially in the luxury segment, will be crucial to sustain growth. The robust performance of NIVEA and the Derma brands, coupled with strategic investments in new product launches, positions Beiersdorf well for success. Management's commitment to maintaining a balanced growth strategy and using innovation as a competitive advantage will be critical to mastering market dynamics and achieving long-term goals. However, the question remains what to do with Tesa, because in my opinion it does not fit the group at all and the market will not get any easier from here.

Positive statements:

• Beiersdorf recorded strong organic sales growth of 6.5% in the first nine months of 2024, with the Consumer business area achieving growth of 7.3%.
• The iconic brand NIVEA showed an outstanding performance with organic sales growth of 9.4% in the first nine months of 2024.
• The derma brands Eucerin and Aquaphor achieved organic sales growth of 8.8% in the first three quarters, driven by double-digit growth on a global level and an excellent performance in North America.
• Beiersdorf's breakthrough anti-aging innovation, Epicelline, achieved exceptional sales results just a few weeks after its launch in September.
• The tesa division recorded solid growth of 3.5% in the third quarter despite increasing challenges in its key sectors.

Negative statements:

• La Prairie luxury brand sales declined 7.3% organically in the first three quarters, mainly due to continued weakness in the Greater China market.
• The decline in the Chinese luxury and travel retail market in the third quarter significantly impacted La Prairie's sales.
• The automotive industry, particularly in Europe and in the area of e-mobility, continues to suffer, which is impacting tesa's business.
• The tesa consumer segment recorded lower customer footfall in DIY stores due to subdued consumer sentiment in Europe.
• Beiersdorf's involvement in the luxury segment in China is limited, as less than 5% of sales come from this area, which limits the opportunities to exploit growth options in the luxury market.

Earnings summary this morning 👇🏼

$ULVR (-3,5%) | Unilever Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €15.25B (est €15.398B)

DIV/SHR €O.4396

Underlying Volume 3.6% (est 3.1%)

Underlying Sales 4.5%, (est 4.25%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Sales To 5% (est 4.2%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Oper. Margin At Least 18%

2024 FY Outlook Unchanged

$BARC (-8,18%) | Barclays Q3 2024 Earnings

Pretax Profit £2.23B (est £1.96B)

Net Interest Income £3.31B (est £3.11B)

Investment Banking £594M (est £552.3M)

FICC Rev. £1.18B (est £1.13B)

Sees FY Cost To Income Ratio About

Sees FY UK Net Interest Income About £6.5B

$AAL (-10,34%) | Anglo American Q3 2024 Earnings

Diamond Prod 5.6M Carats (est 5.6M)

Copper Output 181,000 tons (est 181,334)

American Sees Fy Diamond Prod 23M to 26M Carats

De Beers To Continue To Assess Options To Lower Output

PGMS Demerger Is On Track To Complete By Mid 2025

$RMS (-4,6%) | Hermes International Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €3.70B (est €3.68B)

Sales At Constant FX 11.3% (est 10.5%)

Leather Goods Sales At Constant FX 14% (est 12.8%)

CFO: Sees No Change In Global Trends Early Q4

CFO: China Higher Basket Spend Made Up For Lower Traffic

$005380 | Hyundai reports a 6.5% drop in profits in the third quarter despite an increase in sales, leading to a fall in the Seoul share price of almost 5%. Operating profit falls to 3.6 trillion won, while the operating margin drops to 8.3%.

$BN (-1,34%) | Danone increases its turnover in the third quarter by 4.2% to 6.9 billion euros, exceeding analysts' expectations. Demand is particularly high in North America and Asia.

$RNO (-4,51%) | Renault increases sales by 1.8% to 10.7 billion euros in the third quarter, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Exchange rate effects have a dampening effect on the result, without which a 5% increase in sales would have been possible.

$SY1 (+0,31%) | Symrise raises its forecast for organic growth in 2024 to around 7 % after strong sales growth in the first nine months. Sales rose by 6 % to 3.8 billion euros, driven by petcare and fragrance products.

$WAF (-7,01%) | Siltronic raises 2024 EBITDA margin guidance to 24-26% as acceptance of new Singapore factory is delayed. Third-quarter sales rise 2.3% to EUR 357m, exceeding expectations, while profit falls to EUR 19m.

$BEI (-0,89%) | Beiersdorf records organic sales growth of 6.5% to 7.5 billion euros, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Sales of the luxury brand La Prairie fall by over 7% in China, while the annual targets for 2024 are confirmed.

21.10.2024

iPhone 16 gets off to a strong start: Apple registers 20% more sales in China + SAP is too valuable for the German stock exchange + DAX outlook: 20,000-point mark remains firmly in sight + 11 DATEs that will be important this week + Jefferies lowers Munich Re to 'Hold' - target 485 euros

Apple $AAPL (-6,8%) can score points in China with a successful launch of the new iPhone 16. According to a Bloomberg report based on data from Counterpoint Research, sales in the first three weeks after the market launch were 20 percent higher than the previous year's model, with the more expensive versions of the new iPhone doing particularly well. Sales of the Pro and Pro Max models increased by 44 percent. According to Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam, the start of production of the iPhone 15 last year was still characterized by supply bottlenecks, which slowed down the initial sales figures. These problems have largely been overcome with the iPhone 16.

The software company SAP $SAP (-5,31%) was the first to reach the new DAX cap of 15 percent. What now? Over the past year, the value of the German software group SAP has risen sharply. The company is currently valued at 212 euros per share on the Dax. Twelve months ago it was less than 130 euros.

https://www.golem.de/news/dax-unternehmen-sap-ist-zu-wertvoll-fuer-die-deutsche-boerse-2410-189998.html

With an increase of around 0.4 percent to 19,657 points, the DAX $GDAXI went into the weekend last Friday. This means that the stock market barometer could launch another attack on the 20,000-point mark in the coming week. Investors can find out which topics could influence the price trend in the DAX outlook. Do you think the 20,000 points will fall?

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/maerkte-forex-zinsen/dax-ausblick-20000-punkte-marke-bleibt-fest-im-visier-20368521.html

The analyst firm Jefferies has Munich Re $MUV2 (-6,68%) from "buy" to "hold" and lowered its price target from 495 to 485 euros. In a study published on Monday, analyst Philip Kett mentioned that the reinsurer's share price had reached record highs despite Hurricane Milton. He reassessed his estimates and came to the conclusion that there was hardly any room for rising market expectations. His price target had already been exceeded.

11 DATES that will be important this week

1 China's central bank cuts key interest rates

The People's Bank of China is likely to ease its monetary policy further. Analysts expect it to lower its reference rates for 5-year and 1-year corporate loans to 3.65% (currently: 3.85%) and 3.15% (3.35%) respectively. This expectation is not only fueled by the announcement of comprehensive economic policy measures to stimulate growth, but also by statements made by central bank governor Pan Gongsheng. According to reports in the Chinese local media, he held out the prospect of a reduction of 20 to 25 basis points at an event.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024; 3:00

2nd IMF hardly changes growth forecasts - focus on government debt

Economists and politicians are meeting in Washington for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. The agenda initially includes the publication of the current World Economic Outlook (3.00 p.m.) and the Global Financial Stability Report (4.15 p.m.) on Monday, followed by the Fiscal Monitor on Tuesday (3.00 p.m.). The opening speech by IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva indicates that the IMF will primarily discuss the high and rising level of public debt and look for ways to strengthen economic growth in order to improve debt sustainability. There will also be no shortage of calls for austerity. The finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 will meet on Thursday.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024, 15:00

3. SAP $SAP (-5,31%)defies the weak economic environment

SAP appears to be unaffected by the weak economy. According to analysts' expectations, the Group seamlessly continued the growth of its cloud business in the third quarter. Even slight disruptive factors such as investigations in the USA and the departure of three board members have not thrown the Walldorf-based software giant off track. SAP will present its figures on Monday shortly after 22:00 after the close of the US stock exchange. An analysts' conference will take place at 23:00.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024; 22:05

4. deutsche Börse $DB1 (-7,96%)remains on course for growth with Simcorp

Deutsche Börse should have remained on course for growth in the third quarter. The figures are likely to be characterized by the integration of Simcorp and a good development in the Trading & Clearing division. The exchange operator will probably confirm its targets for the year as a whole. Larger acquisitions are currently not an issue, not only because of the ongoing integration of Simcorp, but probably also due to the change in the Group's top management.

>>> Tuesday, October 22, 2024; 19:00

5th Deutsche Bank $DBK (-10%)with good investment banking - Postbank helps

The fact that Deutsche Bank is currently attracting less attention than a certain Frankfurt-based competitor is unlikely to be changed by the third quarter report. The bank will deliver solid figures and confirm its targets. Although the bank recently had to raise its forecast for risk provisioning, things are going well in the investment bank. CFO James von Moltke recently said that significant growth is expected, particularly in the M&A and issues business. The bank will also see a positive effect on earnings from the reversal of the Postbank provision, as it will not need the full EUR 1.3 billion for the settlement with the former Postbank shareholders. In this context, statements on new share buybacks should also be of interest.

>>> Wednesday, October 23, 2024; 7:00 a.m.

6 Beiersdorf $BEI (-0,89%)on the home straight after the summer quarter

After the first nine months, Beiersdorf should be on track for its full-year targets for both sales and EBIT margin. The summer quarter is likely to have benefited from strong demand for sun protection and the derma skin care brands. The innovation Epicelline and the launch of Eucerin Face in the USA should also be well received. On the other hand, further declines in sales for the luxury cosmetics brand La Prairie in China. Nevertheless, organic sales growth at Group level and in both the Consumer and Tesa segments is likely to have been in line with the target range - with Consumer tending towards the upper end and Tesa and the Group towards the lower end. Following a pull-forward effect in the second quarter, Tesa could deliver somewhat weaker results in the third quarter. With the second quarter figures, Beiersdorf had explained that the development in the US market and at La Prairie in the second half of the year would be decisive for the positioning in the target range.

>>> Thursday, October 24, 2024; 07:00

7. symrise $SY1 (+0,31%)could raise the forecast

Symrise is likely to have increased sales and margins in the third quarter. According to analysts, strong sales in both divisions and better pricing should have contributed to this. The focus is on the forecast. In August, CFO Olaf Klinger held out the prospect of a review after the end of the quarter and a possible increase - which is expected by the market. However, analysts at UBS also point out that the fragrance and flavor manufacturer usually gives conservative forecasts. Investors may also ask about the planned sale of the business with ingredients and flavor enhancers for feed for fish farming.

>>> Thursday, October 24, 2024; 07:30

9. Mercedes-Benz $MBG (-5,9%)burdened by weakness in China

Burdened by the weak market environment and increasing price pressure, Mercedes-Benz recently had to lower its outlook for this year twice within a short space of time. The reluctance to buy has hit the DAX-listed company particularly hard in China, where sales of particularly expensive and high-margin luxury cars have increasingly lost momentum. However, there are also positive aspects that analysts are emphasizing at the Stuttgart-based premium car manufacturer, such as its commitment to the dividend payout ratio and share buybacks. The management should emphasize this again when presenting the quarterly figures so that the mood does not change even more.

>>> Friday, October 25, 2024; 07:30

10th Ifo business climate index rises in October

Economists expect the Ifo Business Climate Index to have risen again in October for the first time since April - to 85.6 (September: 85.4) points. Nevertheless, the situation of the German economy is tricky. From a cyclical perspective, an Ifo increase would indicate an improvement. Energy prices are no longer weighing so heavily on the economy and the effects of high key interest rates are slowly easing. However, the structural problems in the automotive industry, which is so important for Germany, are likely to persist for some time to come, and the rest of the export-oriented industry will also have to adjust to the new geopolitical conditions for some time to come.

>>> Friday, 25.10.2024; 10:00

11. at Porsche $P911 (-4,36%)everything depends on the final quarter

The situation at Porsche has become increasingly gloomy in recent months. It was already foreseeable at the beginning of the year that the many model changes would entail high expenses and that the environment in China would be difficult. However, this was recently compounded by delivery problems, production interruptions and considerably tougher competition. When the figures for the third quarter are presented, analysts are only expecting a return of just over 11 percent - but Porsche is aiming for 14 to 15 percent for the year as a whole. The management's comments on the final quarter will therefore be the linchpin in terms of target achievement.

>>> Friday, October 25, 2024; 17:30

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

CVS Health USD 0.67

Caterpillar 1.41 USD

Bank of New York Mellon USD 0.47

Husqvarna (B) SEK 2.00

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

03:00 Logitech quarterly figures

07:35 Forvia SE sales 3Q

18:30 Metro Trading Statement 4Q

22:05 SAP quarterly figures

23:00 SAP Analyst Conference

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Producer prices September FORECAST: -0.2% yoy/-1.0% yoy previously: +0.2% yoy/-0.8% yoy
• 16:00 US: Index of leading indicators September FORECAST: -0.3% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy
• 19:30 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at Chippewa Falls Area Chamber of Commerce event
• 23:00 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks at CFA Society Kansas City event

✨ Who is the beauty king? A look at the stars of the cosmetics stocks ✨

Company presentation

L'Oréal, the world's leading cosmetics group, is based in France and can look back on a history of over a hundred years. Founded in 1909, its portfolio today comprises more than 35 brands covering skin care, make-up, hair care and fragrances.

e.l.f. Beauty is an up-and-coming US cosmetics company that has stood for affordable yet high-quality products since it was founded in 2004. The brand is particularly popular with younger consumers.

Beiersdorf, a traditional German company founded in 1882, specializes in skin care products. The company is particularly well known for its NIVEA brand, which is synonymous with skin care worldwide.

Estée Lauder was founded in New York in 1946 and has developed into a leading provider in the prestige beauty segment. The company owns over 30 luxury brands and is an established player on the international market.

Historical development

$$OR (-1,22%) has grown through constant innovation and strategic acquisitions and is now represented in over 150 countries.

$ELF (+1,27%) has experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by digital strategies and the development of new sales channels.

$BEI (-0,89%) NIVEA has developed from a small pharmacy into a global company. The NIVEA brand was launched in 1911 and is now one of the best-known skin care brands in the world.

$EL (-8,7%) NIVEA grew from a small family business into an international cosmetics giant. Through international expansion and acquisitions, the company was able to diversify and constantly expand its portfolio.

Business model and core competencies

L'Oréal is based on a broadly diversified brand portfolio, intensive research and development and a strong global presence. The company operates in four divisions: Consumer Products, L'Oréal Luxe, Active Cosmetics and Professional Products.

e.l.f. Beauty focuses on affordable, trendy products and is increasingly using digital marketing strategies and e-commerce to appeal to young target groups.

Beiersdorf focuses on skin care and has extensive expertise in the development of innovative formulations. The company also operates a successful adhesives business with Tesa.

Estée Lauder specializes in prestige beauty products and excels in product innovation, luxury marketing and global distribution. The company is active in four main categories: Skincare, Makeup, Fragrance and Haircare.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

L'Oréal is investing heavily in sustainability, digitalization and personalized beauty solutions. The company is also increasingly focusing on AI-supported technologies and expanding its portfolio in the area of "clean beauty".

e.l.f. Beauty plans to further develop its digital presence and expand into new product categories and international markets.

Beiersdorf is focusing on innovations in the area of skincare, particularly sustainable and natural products, while also investing in the digitalization of its brands.

Estée Lauder is aiming to expand into growth markets, particularly in Asia, and is focusing on strengthening its digital presence. The company is also investing in sustainable packaging solutions and "clean beauty" products.

Market position and competition

L'Oréal maintains its leading position in the global cosmetics industry with a market share of over 14%.

e.l.f. Beauty has established itself as a strong challenger in the mass market and continues to gain market share, particularly among younger consumers.

Beiersdorf is a leading player in the European skincare market and competes directly with companies such as Unilever and Procter & Gamble.

Estée Lauder is the second largest cosmetics group in the world and dominates the prestige beauty segment. Its main competitors are L'Oréal Luxe and LVMH.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global cosmetics market was estimated at around 430 billion US dollars in 2022 and is expected to grow to over 700 billion US dollars by 2030. This growth is being driven by rising demand in emerging markets, the boom in e-commerce and the trend towards natural and sustainable products.

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog :https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/wer-ist-der-beauty-k-nig-ein-blick-auf-die-stars-der-kosmetik-aktien

Conclusion

L'Oréal is undoubtedly the best value in the comparison. The company shows solid growth, has an attractive net debt to EBITDA ratio and is valued roughly in line with other companies in the cosmetics sector. Although it is unfortunate that the location in France leads to additional costs due to financial transactions and withholding taxes, this disadvantage is mitigated for long-term investors by the strong positioning. Looking at the industry, which is growing by around 5% annually, L'Oréal is in an excellent position. Moreover, the company does not shy away from M&A activities and the acquisition of brands. The capital efficiency of these transactions also appears positive, especially when considering the non-declining returns on capital. Overall, L'Oréal is the best approach to be invested in the cosmetics industry. However, L'Oréal does not have to be the only stock in the portfolio. A mix of L'Oréal and possibly Unilever or P&G could provide a good mix of different industries in the consumer goods sector.

I don't want to speak against the other companies.

Estée Lauder has a strong brand, but it remains to be seen how well the company can recover from its recent difficulties. Especially in the luxury cosmetics segment, such weakness leaves the impression that something is wrong.

Beiersdorf, on the other hand, is lagging behind the market. In my opinion, the company does not have the strongest brands and is also heavily dependent on Tesa. Nevertheless, Beiersdorf is growing sufficiently to offer good prospects for the future. However, as make-up is heavily dependent on brands, I do not see Beiersdorf as a convincing investment, even if there is perhaps more potential than I would expect.

Elf Beauty is aligned with the hype and trends in the industry and has proven that they are able to actively manage this. However, the company is a little too small for me. Personally, I would prefer a broader range of brands in the cosmetics industry, which Elf does not offer to this extent.

For me, this means that an entry into L'Oréal at around 340 euros would be interesting. The value that came out of the DCF.

The market overview for 🇺🇸 & 🇪🇺:

US MARKET🇺🇸

Monday

• PACS Group ($PACS) and UL Solutions ($ULS) have potential IPOs.
• Neel KashkariPresident of the Minneapolis Fed, delivers remarks.

Tuesday

• Release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March).
• Quarterly reports from WD-40 ($WDFC (+0,44%) ) and Tilray Brands ($TLRY (-5,26%) ).

Wednesday

• Publication of the consumer price index (March).
• Publication of the wholesale stocks (March).
• Publication of the minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
• Publication of the monthly federal budget of the USA (March).
• Speeches by Austan GoolsbeePresident of the Chicago Fed.
• Quarterly reports from Delta Air Lines ($DAL (-3,13%) ) and Applied Digital ($APLD (-12,7%) ).

Thursday

• Publication of the initial applications for unemployment benefits (April 5).
• Publication of the producer price index (March).
• Speeches by John C. Williams, President of the New York Fed, and Raphael BosticPresident of the Atlanta Fed.
• Quarterly reports from Constellation Brands ($STZ (-3,61%) ), Fastenal ($FAST (-4,61%) ) and CarMax ($KMX (-0,17%) ).

Friday

• Publication of the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (April).
• Speeches by Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, and Mary C. DalyPresident of the San Francisco Fed.
• Quarterly reports from JPMorgan Chase ($JPM (-7,37%) ), Wells Fargo ($WFC (-6,63%) ), BlackRock ($BLK ), Citigroup ($C (-7,64%) ), State Street ($STT (-7,02%) ) and Progressive ($PGR (-9,83%) ).

EUROPEAN MARKET🇪🇺

Monday

• Publication of Industrial Production Index🇪🇺

Tuesday

• ZEW Economic Sentiment🇩🇪 will be published
• Quarterly reports from Ericsson ($ERIC A (-5,52%) )🇸🇪, Beiersdorf AG ($BEI (-0,89%) )🇩🇪, Sika ($SIKA (-3,95%) )🇨🇭, Rio Tinto PLC ($RIO (-6,32%) )🇬🇧

Wednesday

• Release of CPI data🇪🇺
• Quarterly reports from Hays ($HAS (-6,72%) )🇬🇧, Petershill Partners ($PHLL (-5,2%) )🇬🇧, Just Eat Takeaway ($TKWY (-1,68%) )🇬🇧, Entain ($ENT (-9,66%) )🇬🇧, La Francaise ($FDJ (-2,65%) )🇫🇷, Legal & General ($LGEN (-5,31%) ), Tryg ($TRYG (-0,39%) )🇩🇰, BHP Group Ltd ($BHP (-7,33%) )🇬🇧, ASML Holding ($ASML (-2,09%) )🇳🇱Volvo B ($VOLV B (-7,82%) )🇸🇪, Severstal ($CHMF )🇷🇺

thursday

• Publication of Construction Output🇪🇺
• Quarterly reports from Danone ($BN (-1,34%) )🇫🇷, Nokia Oyj ($NOKIA (-3,39%) )🇫🇮, Tele2 AB ($TEL2 B (-7,06%) )🇸🇪