Payout ratio below 35

Gross margin 24 at 56

Medical & technology group that is involved in semiconductors, among other things.

Figures were good, but of course the outlook was lowered due to customs uncertainties.

In the S&P 500, 224 out of 500 shares are in the red this year. "Welt" has analyzed which stocks have the potential to catch up.

The criteria:

The stocks must have lost at least 20 percent in price since the beginning of the year, have at least double-digit price potential according to analysts' estimates and also be recommended as a buy by at least 50 percent of augurs.

The candidates (selection):

$UNH (+4,71%) - United Health

$DECK (+0,15%) - Deckers Outdoor

$UPS (+1,19%) - UPS

$HAL (+1,28%) - Halliburton

$MRK (-2,07%) - Merck

$NCLH (+0,7%) - Norwegian Cruise Line

$IQV (+1,91%) - IQVIA Holdings

Source: Welt, 14.05.25 (excerpt) | Image: ChatGPT

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/dPPeUQiYKaA?si=J8OBGoP_bVjrvo4T

Monday:

The Darmstadt-based pharmaceutical company $MRK (-2,07%) Merck buys a biotech cancer specialist from the USA. The acquisition is Springworks. A total of 3 billion euros is said to have been invested.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/merck-deutscher-pharmakonzern-kauft-us-krebsspezialisten-springworks/100124438.html

As expected $RHM (+2,55%) Rheinmetall was able to significantly increase its profit. Expectations were even exceeded, with operating profit increasing by 49% to 199 million euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ruestung-rheinmetall-steigert-seinen-gewinn-erneut-deutlich/100124650.html

Tuesday:

The logistics group $DHL (-0,99%) DHL can perform better than expected. EBIT rose by 4.5% to 1.37 billion euros in the first quarter. Earnings also increased from 63 (previous year) cents per share to 68 cents.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/dienstleister/dhl-logistikkonzern-startet-besser-als-erwartet-ins-geschaeftsjahr/100124616.html

Wednesday:

Inflation in Germany is falling almost to the ECB target. In April, the inflation rate was probably 2.1% compared to the same month last year. The inflation rate is recorded by Destatis. However, experts had even expected a fall to 2.0%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/preise-inflationsrate-in-deutschland-sinkt-leicht-auf-21-prozent/100123163.html

Donald Trump's tariff policy is having a full impact on the US economy. While experts expected growth, the US economy is shrinking unexpectedly. GDP shrank by 0.3% (annualized in the USA) in the 1st quarter. In the 4th quarter of 2024, the growth rate was still 2.4 %.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/30/economy-gdp-q1-trump-tariffs

Thursday:

The Bank of Japan leaves the key interest rate at 0.5%. It justifies this with the tariffs imposed by the USA and a lower growth forecast.

https://www.reuters.com/business/boj-keep-rates-steady-cut-growth-forecasts-2025-04-30/

Friday:

A surprisingly strong labor market lifts stock markets worldwide on Friday afternoon. Despite Donald Trump's tariff announcements, many new jobs were created in the USA and the unemployment rate remained constant.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/usa-arbeitsmarkt-waechst-stark-trump-will-dennoch-zinssenkungen/100124915.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Tuesday: 11:00 Producer prices (EUR)

Wednesday: 20:00 Interest rate decision (USA)

Thursday: 13:00 Interest rate decision (UK)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#erzeugerpreise
#leitzins
#fed
#uk

At 53 billion euros, the 40 DAX companies are likely to pay out almost one billion euros more this year than a year ago - more than ever before.

The reason for the strong development is high consolidated profits and unexpectedly rising dividends at a good dozen companies, including $ALV (+0,6%) Allianz, $MUV2 (-0,44%) Munich Re and $RHM (+2,55%) Rheinmetall.

At 109 billion euros net profit, the DAX companies are likely to have earned as much in 2024 as in the previous year, according to Handelsblatt calculations. Slump in earnings for the three car manufacturers $BMW (-1,03%) BMW, $MBG (-1,7%) Mercedes and $VOW (-0,99%) VW will be offset by companies in other sectors, in particular the major insurers Allianz, Munich Re and $HNR1 (+0,22%) Hannover Re, but also $DTE (+1,12%) Deutsche Telekom, $HEN (-0,55%) Henkel and $EOAN (-2,67%) Eon.

More than a dozen DAX companies have announced higher dividends than the market had previously expected. For example $ALV (+0,6%) 15.40 euros per share after 13.80 euros in the previous year. Analysts had forecast just under 15 euros. The insurer is thus distributing just under six billion euros. This is a record in the German corporate landscape.

The biggest jump is at $MUV2 (-0,44%) Munich Re: The reinsurer is increasing its dividend by five euros per share to 20 euros.

The two healthcare specialists $FRE (+0,9%) Fresenius and $FME (+1,26%) Fresenius Medical Care, the brand manufacturer $HEN (-0,55%) Henkel, the automotive supplier $BTR Continental, the $CBK (-1,65%) Commerzbank, $RHM (+2,55%) Rheinmetall and $HNR1 (+0,22%) Hannover Re have raised their dividends, in some cases significantly more than expected. This is also due to rising profits, which justify a higher profit share for shareholders.

The largest dividend payers in the DAX are

• $ALV (+0,6%)
• 
  $DTE (+1,12%)
• 
  $MBG (-1,7%)
• 
  $SIE (-0,96%)
• 
  $VOW (-0,99%)

Like the car manufacturers, a number of companies in the DAX remain below the usual international payout ratios, including the family-run groups $BEI (+0,67%) Beiersdorf and $MRK (-2,07%) Merck. They pass on less than 30 percent of their profits. This leaves enough of a buffer so that dividends do not have to be reduced immediately in more difficult times.

Germany's most valuable group, $SAP (+0,67%) SAP, with a payout ratio of 85%, is pushing the limit: net profit of 3.1 billion euros in the past year compares with a total dividend payout of 2.7 billion euros. However, the profit was burdened by a one-off effect.

So far, a total of 20 companies have increased their dividends, with only $BAS (-2,28%) BASF and the three car manufacturers. Four companies have yet to do so: $RWE (-0,46%) RWE, $SY1 (+0,97%) Symrise and $VNA (+1,44%) Vonovia are likely to increase their dividends, while analysts expect $PAH3 (-0,24%) analysts expect a reduction at Porsche Holding.

Source (excerpt) & chart: Handelsblatt, 15.03.25

The CEO of $MRK (-2,07%)Belén Garijo, expressed her optimism at the #wef2025 optimistic that Europe can strengthen its global competitiveness. Despite growing competition from the USA and China, the pharmaceutical company is continuing to invest in its own region.

"We have invested heavily in Europe because we are convinced that the ship can be turned"

The comments come after Donald Trump voiced plans to punish the EU & China with tariffs to counter what he sees as "unfair trade practices".

Garijo said Merck is prepared for such developments by expanding its presence in the US and pursuing local strategies pursuing local strategiesto counteract potential trade restrictions.

"We have diversified our supply chain to be closer to our customers and better able to respond to potential trade restrictions"

Quarterly figures for EU companies on 01.08.2024

Hugo Boss +++ DHL +++ Symrise +++ BMW +++ Volkswagen +++ and many more

Heidelberger Druck $HDD (-2,73%) achieves sales of €403 million (previous year: €544 million), EBITDA (adjusted) of -€9 million (previous year: +€41 million) and a net result of -€42 million (previous year: +€10 million) in the 1st quarter. Forecast confirmed.

HUGO BOSS $BOSS (-4,3%) achieved sales of €1.015 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €1.026 billion, preliminary figures from July 15: €1.015 billion), EBIT (final) of €70 million (previous year: €121 million, preliminary: €70 million) and net profit of €37 million (previous year: €75 million).

Symrise $SY1 (+0,97%) achieved sales of €2.57 billion in the first half of the year (previous year: €2.41 billion, analyst forecast: €2.56 billion), EBITDA of €529.8 million (previous year: €446 million, forecast: €526.1 million) and net income of €239.5 million (previous year: €187.5 million, forecast: €251.2 million). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

BMW $BMW (-1,03%) achieves Q2 revenues of €36.9 billion (previous year: €37.2 billion, analyst forecast: €37.4 billion), EBIT (Group) of €3.88 billion (previous year: €4.34 billion, forecast: €3.95 billion) and Group net profit of €2.71 billion (previous year: €2.96 billion, forecast: €2.62 billion). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

Volkswagen (VW) $VOW (-0,99%) achieved sales of €83.3 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €80.1 billion, forecast: €81.9 billion), an operating profit of €5.46 billion (previous year: €5.60 billion, forecast: €5.38 billion) and earnings after tax of €3.63 billion (previous year: €3.79 billion). In the outlook for 2024, VW confirms the forecast for sales and deliveries.

Klöckner & Co $KCO (-1,64%) achieved sales of 2.3 million tons in the first half of the year (previous year: 2.1 million tons), EBITDA before material special effects of €83 million (previous year: €130 million) and net income from continuing operations of -€26 million (previous year: €39 million). In the outlook for 2024, the company expects a slight decline in sales compared to the previous year and EBITDA before material special effects of €120 million to €180 million.

DHL $DHL (-0,99%) achieved revenue of €20.6 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €20.1 billion, analyst forecast: €20.3 billion), EBIT of €1.4 billion (previous year: €1.7 billion, forecast: €1.3 billion) and net profit of €744 million (previous year: €978 million, forecast: €754 million). Outlook for 2024 and EBIT forecast for 2026 confirmed.

Merck KGaA $MRK (-2,07%) achieves final Q2 sales of €5.35 billion (preliminary: €5.35 billion), final adjusted EBITDA of €1.509 billion (preliminary: €1.509 billion) and final adjusted earnings per share of €2.20 (preliminary: €2.20). Outlook confirmed.

MTU Aero Engines
$MTX (-0,25%) achieves Q2 revenues (adjusted) of €1.755 billion (previous year: €1.57 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €193 million (previous year: €242 million, analyst forecast: €223 million) and net profit of €185 million (previous year: €143 million, forecast: €163 million). Margin forecast for 2024 raised to around 13% (previously: more than 12%) Outlook for sales, adjusted EBIT margin and FCF confirmed.

Daimler Truck
$DTG (-0,8%) achieved order intake of 92,569 vehicles in Q2 (previous year: -5%), revenue of €13.3 billion (previous year: €13.88 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €1.17 billion (previous year: €1.43 billion) and earnings per share of €0.93 (previous year: €1.11).

+++ Earnings summary this morning, 01.08. +++

Volkswagen (VW) $VOW (-0,99%) achieves sales of €83.3 billion (previous year: €80.1 billion, forecast: €81.9 billion), an operating profit of €5.46 billion (previous year: €5.60 billion, forecast: €5.38 billion) and earnings after tax of €3.63 billion (previous year: €3.79 billion) in Q2. In the outlook for 2024, VW confirms the forecast for sales and deliveries.

-

BMW $BMW (-1,03%) achieves sales of €36.9 billion in the 2nd quarter (previous year: €37.2 billion, analyst forecast: €37.4 billion), EBIT (Group) of €3.88 billion (previous year: €4.34 billion, forecast: €3.95 billion) and Group net profit of €2.71 billion (previous year: €2.96 billion, forecast: €2.62 billion). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

-

DHL $DHL (-0,99%) generates Q2 revenue of €20.6 billion (previous year: €20.1 billion, analyst forecast: €20.3 billion), EBIT of €1.4 billion (previous year: €1.7 billion, forecast: €1.3 billion) and net profit of €744 million (previous year: €978 million, forecast: €754 million). Outlook for 2024 and EBIT forecast for 2026 confirmed.

-

Vonovia $VNA (+1,44%) achieves average rent per square meter of €1. In the first half of 2024, Vonovia generated an average rent per square meter of € 7.86 (previous year: € 7.58); EBITDA (adjusted) from rental activities of € 1.19 billion (previous year: € 1.21 billion), EBT (adjusted) from continuing operations of € 887.2 million (previous year: € 945.8 million); EBITDA (adjusted) from continuing operations of € 1.27 billion (previous year: € 1.30 billion) and net income for the period of € 1.27 billion (previous year: € 1.30 billion): €945.8 million); EBITDA (adjusted) from continuing operations of €1.27 billion (previous year: €1.30 billion) and a net loss for the period of -€529.2 million (previous year: -€4.13 billion). The vacancy rate in the first half of the year was 2.2% (previous year: 2.2%) and the real estate portfolio value (as at the end of June) was €82.5 billion (previous year: €83.9 billion at the end of 2023). In the outlook for 2024, the company now sees adjusted EBITDA at the upper end of the range of €2.55 billion to €2.65 billion and adjusted EBT at the upper end of the range of €1.7 billion to €1.8 billion

-

Elmos Semiconductor $ELG (-5,29%) achieved sales of €142 million (previous year: €136 million), EBIT of €35.9 million (previous year: €34.1 million) and net profit of €24.3 million (previous year: €23.0 million) in the second quarter. Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

-

Symrise $SY1 (+0,97%) achieved sales of €2.57 billion in the first half of the year (previous year: €2.41 billion, analyst forecast: €2.56 billion), EBITDA of €529.8 million (previous year: €446 million, forecast: €526.1 million) and net income of €239.5 million (previous year: €187.5 million, forecast: €251.2 million). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

-

HUGO BOSS $BOSS (-4,3%) achieves sales of €1.015 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €1.026 billion, preliminary figures from July 15: €1.015 billion), EBIT (final) of €70 million (previous year: €121 million, preliminary: €70 million) and net profit of €37 million (previous year: €75 million).

-

Heidelberger Druck $HDDB achieved sales of €403 million (previous year: €544 million), EBITDA (adjusted) of -€9 million (previous year: +€41 million) and a net result of -€42 million (previous year: +€10 million) in the first quarter. Forecast confirmed.

-

Klöckner & Co $KCOB achieved sales of 2.3 million tons in the first half of the year (previous year: 2.1 million tons), EBITDA before material special effects of €83 million (previous year: €130 million) and a consolidated result from continuing operations of -€26 million (previous year: €39 million). In the outlook for 2024, the company expects a slight decline in sales compared to the previous year and EBITDA before material special effects of €120 million to €180 million.

-

Merck KGaA $MRK (-2,07%) achieves final Q2 sales of €5.35 billion (preliminary: €5.35 billion), final adjusted EBITDA of €1.509 billion (preliminary: €1.509 billion) and final adjusted earnings per share of €2.20 (preliminary: €2.20). Outlook confirmed.

-

MTU Aero Engines $MTX (-0,25%) achieves Q2 revenues (adjusted) of €1.755 billion (previous year: €1.57 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €193 million (previous year: €242 million, analyst forecast: €223 million) and net profit of €185 million (previous year: €143 million, forecast: €163 million). Margin forecast for 2024 raised to around 13% (previously: more than 12%) Outlook for sales, adjusted EBIT margin and FCF confirmed.

-

Daimler Truck $DTG (-0,8%) achieved order intake of 92,569 vehicles in the 2nd quarter (previous year: -5%), revenue of €13.3 billion (previous year: €13.88 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €1.17 billion (previous year: €1.43 billion) and earnings per share of €0.93 (previous year: €1.11).

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/uWLmaUmA94I?si=Nvgan1ND1bTBDfNJ

Sunday:

Joe Biden resigns and names Kamala Harris as possible successor. Trump has already made a statement. We are curious to see what the markets will do tomorrow. The election campaign in the US seems to be starting all over again.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/us-wahlen-joe-biden-verzichtet-auf-kandidatur-und-schlaegt-kamala-harris-vor/100054462.html

Monday:

The battery manufacturer $VAR1 Varta is restructuring at the expense of its shareholders. In addition, Porsche and Michael Tojner secure pre-emptive rights for the issue of new shares. As a result of the StaRUG proceedings, small shareholders at Varta in particular are left empty-handed.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kommentare/varta-gau-fuer-kleinaktionaere/100054586.html

Tuesday:

$P911 (-2,69%) Porsche corrects its forecast. Turnover is expected to be lower than planned and the margin is also likely to fall. This is probably due to flooding at a European supplier.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autohersteller-warum-porsche-jetzt-die-jahresziele-fuer-2024-kassieren-muss/100054794.html

Also $ST5 (-1,59%) Steico also fell significantly. Although turnover and profit increased, the share price fell. The reason is a cautious outlook.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18294888-steico-se-starkes-erstes-halbjahr-2024-vorsichtiger-ausblick

Wednesday:

Profit at $TSLA (+2,05%) Tesla falls for the second quarter in a row, Tesla has clearly missed expectations with its figures. Car sales fell by seven percent to 19.9 billion USD. Total sales increased slightly thanks to the strong storage business.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/elektroautobauer-tesla-gewinn-sinkt-erneut-robotaxi-soll-im-oktober-vorgestellt-werden/100053233.html

$RHM (+2,55%) Rheinmetall doubled its profit and was even able to exceed expectations. The armaments group is benefiting from numerous orders from the German armed forces. Sales increased by 49% to 2.2 billion euros in the second quarter. Profit doubled to 271 million euros. Rheinmetall is undoubtedly one of the winners of the Ukraine war.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ruestung-rheinmetall-verdoppelt-gewinn-im-zweiten-quartal/100055103.html

The Purchasing Managers' Index for Germany 🇩🇪 and the USA are disappointing. The value for Germany fell below 50, and the same applies to industry in the USA. The index thus signals a recession. In the USA, at least the service sector remains above the 50 mark.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/einkaufsmangerindex-juli-316954/?amp

Thursday:

Yesterday, the building materials group $STO3 (+0,58%) Sto reported disappointing figures. Earnings will probably be halved and the targets for 2024 and 2027 have been canceled.

There was also weak news from the automotive industry. $7201 (+3,23%) Nissan's profit collapses by 99%. Opel parent company Stellantnis reports a 40% drop in profits.

Things are also going badly in the luxury goods industry. Gucci's sales shrank by 19%, putting pressure on the profits of its parent company $KER (+1,09%) Kering.

Even consumer goods giant $NESN (-0,3%) Nestlé disappointed with a lowered forecast. Turnover fell by 2.7%, partly due to currency effects.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-nissan-gewinn-faellt-um-99-prozent-astrazeneca-erhoeht-jahresziele/24098412.html

Even in Poland 🇵🇱, which is otherwise economically spoiled, the supermarket chain $DNP (-5,61%) Dino Polska has to report poor figures. Among other things, profits fell by 28% compared to the previous year.

https://www.stockwatch.pl/wiadomosci/slabe-wyniki-biedronki-pociagnely-w-dol-notowania-dino-polska,akcje,329836

The situation was different in the pharmaceutical sector. $SAN (+2,67%) Sanofi exceeded analysts' expectations in terms of profit and was able to increase its turnover by 8 %. Also $AZN (+1,98%) Astrazeneca also raised its annual targets. Sales increased by 15 %. However, profits fell slightly due to exchange rate effects.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-nissan-gewinn-faellt-um-99-prozent-astrazeneca-erhoeht-jahresziele/24098412.html

Good economic data from the USA 🇺🇸. GDP growth in the second quarter was probably significantly stronger than expected (2.8 % annualized, expected: 2.0 %). In addition, inflation is unlikely to exceed expectations.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-us-wirtschaft-waechst-im-zweiten-quartal-staerker-als-erwartet/100055373.html

Friday:

$MBG (-1,7%) Mercedes is able to slightly improve its return on sales again. In addition, there was no profit warning, which many had expected.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autoindustrie-mercedes-verliert-an-fahrt-absatz-der-s-klasse-stuerzt-ab/100054892.html

BASF $BAS (-2,28%) BASF does not have to lower its forecast, but continues to struggle with rather weak figures. Sales fell by 7%, while adjusted profits of 2 billion euros in the second quarter were roughly at the previous year's level.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/chemiekonzern-basf-macht-weniger-umsatz-als-im-vorjahr-bestaetigt-aber-den-ausblick/100054625.html

Inflation in Japan 🇯🇵 was above expectations. Real interest rate hikes may still have to be made there after all. However, even the price increases for core consumer prices in the capital Tokyo are barely above the BoJ's 2% target.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-inflation-tokyo-consumer-price-index-rises-22-yoy-in-july-vs-23-prior-202407252333

The German pharmaceutical group $MRK (-2,07%) Merck also delivered strong figures and raised its forecast slightly. Instead of sales of 20.6 - 22.1 billion euros, the range was raised to 20.7 - 22.1 billion euros. Sales stagnated in the second quarter. The reason for the forecast increase is good figures for the cancer drug Xevinapant.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/pharma-und-techkonzern-merck-hebt-prognose-fuer-2024-leicht-an/100055694.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:00 Inflation data (Germany)

Wednesday: 05:00 Interest rate decision (BoJ)

Thursday: 13:00 Interest rate decision (BoE)

A tale from our youth 👨🏻‍🔧🏭

Since I had some time today and took the opportunity to stow away my relics of days gone by, I found the mementos of when I started my career. Both the badge and the IGBCE membership card.

For those who are not familiar with it: The Industriegewerkschaft - Bergbau, Chemie, Energie is the second largest industrial union in Germany after IG Metall. It represents the interests of the 580,000 members in the mining, chemical and energy sectors in Germany.

Some readers may be interested to know what impact the current wage negotiations in the chemical industry may have on German shares in this sector.

The chemical industry currently employs around 585,000 people. Of these, around 464,000 are considered "employees".

The largest employer in the industry in Germany is BASF $BAS (-2,28%) with just under 51,000 employees. It is followed by Merck $MRK (-2,07%) (approx. 28,000) and Bayer $BAYN (+0,05%) (approx. 22,000), but also Henkel $HEN (-0,55%) Lanxess $LXS (-5,88%) and Covestro $1COV (-0,17%) are also major listed employers in the industry in Germany.

What can be recognized?

Across the industry, all companies have been deeply affected by past price shocks and the resulting economic weakness. This can be clearly seen in the share prices due to the price jumps in electricity and gas. Although the prices for electricity and gas have fallen back to an acceptable level, the order situation is rather miserable. The 3rd quarter of 2024 promises an improvement.

But could an economic upturn also boost profits again?

In the industry, long-term supply contracts are concluded. Supply contracts with reliable partners are rarely terminated. Instead, higher prices are passed on to the end customer. In many places, however, customers are no longer prepared to dig deeper into their pockets, which is why it is expensive to retain customers or acquire new ones. And if they do? Then new customers are lured in by low-cost offers, even though producers have to pay extra for years. The important thing here is that the production plant costs remain lower than the loss due to new contracts. Depending on the size of an idle production plant, the costs per hour can be in the four to five-digit euro range. So: the main thing is to produce, regardless of whether you have to pay hundreds of euros for months for a supply contract. The losses can be offset in the balance sheet with more profitable business or, under certain conditions, written off and thus save taxes. (Please note that this depends on the individual company and its business strategy. This cannot be generalized under any circumstances).

Back to the topic. What is the union demanding for the employees?

It is explicitly about

• a wage increase of 7%
• Better conditions for union members compared to non-members
• Revision of the federal collective wage agreement (this is explicitly about the integration of certain activities into the wage groups of the collective agreement)

In view of the fact that the union argues that employees' real wages have fallen back to the level of the 2010s due to inflation and that neither side is willing to compromise on this, the risk of strike action in the sector appears to be realistic for the first time since the 1970s.

But why?

• Sales in the chemical-pharmaceutical industry are weakening. There was no significant increase in turnover from 2022 to 2023.
• The profits of some companies have almost completely collapsed.
• They would not have survived these years without state aid. The reports of some German stocks show record sales due to the government price brakes on electricity and gas. The management also communicated this to investors, causing share prices to collapse accordingly.
• The sales markets are weakening. High inflation in the euro and dollar zones has left its mark. Real wages only climbed back to the 2021 level towards the end of 2023. People had to pay the difference in 2022 out of their own pockets, even though the state also subsidized the inflation compensation premium. Of course, many small and medium-sized companies in particular were not in a position to bear these employee costs.

What could happen next? (3 scenarios)

• Employers and trade unions negotiate a wage increase that is acceptable to both sides. Collective bargaining peace is maintained. Companies can calculate the economic upswing without further cost pressure. (This would also be a bullish signal for share prices in the chemical industry).
• Employers are uncompromising in their response to the union's demands. Cost pressure is increasing, which is likely to further dampen the chemical industry's business index, but the risk of strikes can be eradicated. (This would lead to further capital outflows from company stocks. However, investors can speculate on sales/integrations. The scenario is conceivable, as Covestro shows).
• The employers and trade union cannot reach an agreement. Strikes take place in the chemical industry in Germany for the first time since the 1970s. This could strengthen the employees and their influence. At the same time, however, it could give employers another reason to focus on their investments abroad. (This would be fatal for German manufacturers, their share prices and at the same time a downward impulse for a key industry in the German economy.

All in all, the German industrial landscape remains exciting and at the same time offers opportunities for investors. However, if you are invested in this sector, it is highly recommended that you follow the wage negotiations. On June 30, the current collective wage agreement for the chemical industry ends and with it the obligation to maintain peace. It remains exciting.

What do you think? Is it really conceivable that there will be strikes in a key German industry? Would politicians actively intervene and disrupt the autonomy of collective bargaining?