Just a quick reminder that the imagination is still there. Research is booming. I think someone said 100 euros is the target price. Stay relaxed—maybe buy more at some point and enjoy it 🍍🎂🍯☕️
Discussão sobre IREN
Postos
556
5D·
A Change in Strategy and Why I'm Now Focusing on 4 ETFs 🔄
Hi everyone,
I'm 21 and invest €2,000 entirely in ETFs. In September, I restructured my portfolio, and I want to show you what it looks like now and what my reasoning was behind it.
The Strategy Change
Until now, I still held the Xtrackers MSCI World Financials ($XDWF (-0,05%) ) and the individual stock IREN ($IREN (+1,48%) ) in my portfolio. I sold both of them entirely and invested the proceeds in my core ETF. My portfolio was too scattered for my liking: a sector bet here, a single stock there. I wanted a clear structure with a broad core and a few targeted additions where I know exactly why they’re there.
My savings plan (€2,000/month, executed on the 15th)
🌍 €1,000 – SPDR MSCI ACWI IMI ($SPYI (+0,21%)
)
This is my core. Over 9,000 stocks from developed and emerging markets, including small-caps. This essentially gives me the entire global stock market in a single ETF. No matter what else I do, this part ensures a broad base.
📉 €500 – iShares Edge MSCI World Value Factor ($IWVL (-0,05%)
)
Historically, value has been a driver of returns over long periods, and after years of growth dominance, I find undervalued companies particularly appealing. It also helps balance out the heavy weighting of U.S. tech stocks in the global ETF.
💻 €250 – iShares S&P 500 Information Technology ($IUIT (+0,42%)
)
My deliberate bet on tech. I believe that technology and AI will shape the coming decades, and I want to be specifically overweight in that sector. I realize this is a concentration risk, but at 21, I can afford the volatility.
🌏 €250 – iShares Edge MSCI EM Value Factor ($5MVL (+0,32%)
)
Emerging markets are relatively undervalued and have long-term growth potential. Using a value-investing approach, I’m specifically buying the undervalued companies there.
My reasoning behind this
A broad global ETF as a stable core (50%) surrounded by yield-oriented additions (50%). My investment horizon spans several decades, which is why the portfolio is deliberately focused entirely on stocks.
What do you think? Would you weight things a little differently, or do you have any concerns about a particular component?
I’m looking forward to your feedback! 🙌
4Posições
€ 44.840,43
3,15%
2424
15 Comentários
I’d take another look at whether the MSCI World Value Index is the right vehicle for tracking this factor.
Sure, it’s performed well over the last two years, but for long stretches when other value funds were doing well, it was simply lagging behind…
I’d also question whether the index’s sector neutrality makes sense.
Actually, I’d like my value fund to include the sectors that are currently undervalued.
In the past, the index has often been packed with the weaker stocks in their respective sectors (cheap for a reason).
I’d rather go with $TDIV and/or $BUYB —which, by the way, also have a stronger value orientation than the MSCI World Value (according to Morningstar StyleBox).
The recent outperformance of the MSCI World Value is primarily a methodology effect.
Due to the required sector neutrality, the index must hold stocks with low valuations across all sectors, including the tech sector. As a result, semiconductor stocks, among others, were included in the index, causing the ETF to unintentionally benefit from the AI boom. Its strength is therefore based more on growth and momentum drivers than on traditional value investing.
In other words, the outperformance over the past two years is attributable not to the value factor but to the momentum factor.
Further evidence of this is that, as of today, the top stock with the highest weighting is $MU —the same top stock as in the MSCI World Momentum Index.
It’s a bug, not a feature.
Sure, it’s performed well over the last two years, but for long stretches when other value funds were doing well, it was simply lagging behind…
I’d also question whether the index’s sector neutrality makes sense.
Actually, I’d like my value fund to include the sectors that are currently undervalued.
In the past, the index has often been packed with the weaker stocks in their respective sectors (cheap for a reason).
I’d rather go with $TDIV and/or $BUYB —which, by the way, also have a stronger value orientation than the MSCI World Value (according to Morningstar StyleBox).
The recent outperformance of the MSCI World Value is primarily a methodology effect.
Due to the required sector neutrality, the index must hold stocks with low valuations across all sectors, including the tech sector. As a result, semiconductor stocks, among others, were included in the index, causing the ETF to unintentionally benefit from the AI boom. Its strength is therefore based more on growth and momentum drivers than on traditional value investing.
In other words, the outperformance over the past two years is attributable not to the value factor but to the momentum factor.
Further evidence of this is that, as of today, the top stock with the highest weighting is $MU —the same top stock as in the MSCI World Momentum Index.
It’s a bug, not a feature.
•
1313
•1Semana·
Green Light for IREN's Largest Project in Spain
$IREN (+1,48%) acquired the Spanish data center developer Ingenostrum in June, marking its entry into the European market— with approximately 490 MW of secured, grid-connected capacity.
The largest single project resulting from this acquisition has now taken a step forward: For Nostrum Evergreen in Badajoz , the regional government of Extremadura has now approved the power connections.
Project overview:
- Installed capacity: 300 MW via the Riocaya substation
- Investment: ~1.9 billion €, of which 12.7 million € is for the substation
- Area: ~200,000 m²
- Expansion plan: 150 MW in the first phase, 300 MW starting in 2029, up to a total of 500 MW starting in 2031
For IREN, this means: The electricity supply for Europe’s largest facility is officially secured; the second expansion phase of 300 MW is scheduled for 2029, and full operation is planned for 2031—a completion date for the first phase of 150 MW has not yet been announced.
5757
3 Comentários
1Semana
For me, what’s becoming increasingly interesting about $IREN is how individual projects are slowly coming together to form a true global infrastructure story. The next 2–3 years should show just how well IREN actually manages to pull this off.
How much potential do you see for IREN as a result of its expansion into Europe?
How much potential do you see for IREN as a result of its expansion into Europe?
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55
•1Semana·
NEBIUS Raises GPU Prices by Up to 20%
$NBIS (+1,34%) Will raise prices for NVIDIA GPUs on demand starting October 1
• H100: $3.85 → $4.50 (+17%)
• H200: $4.50 → $5.40 (+20%)
• B200: $7.15 → $8.50 (+19%)
• B300: $7.85 → $9.50 (+21%)
• The price increases apply to the most important $NVDA GPU offerings and range from 17% and 21%.
Sounds like a sign of strong demand. I’m curious to see if competitors like $IREN (+1,48%) or $CRWV (+1,17%) will follow suit.
Sources:
finance.yahoo.comNBIS Stock Rallies As Neocloud Operator Hikes Prices; Peers IREN, CRWV Jump As Well
2222
1 Comentar
1Semana
Compute is and will remain the AI constraint 🚀 Without fully operational data centers, no Nvidia chip can function.
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44
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2Semana·
JPMorgan upgrades IREN Limited from Underweight to Overweight, raises PT to $65 from $46
"We are upgrading $IREN (+1,48%) to Overweight. We see IREN establishing itself as a top tier neocloud provider, backed by its strategic partnership with NVIDIA. The company has gained momentum in signing customers and industry pricing has moved up substantially. Neocloud contracts have gone from $10-15/W to $15-20/ W and higher today depending on delivery, GPU generation, and contract duration.
Customer pre-payments, which help fund GPU procurement, have ranged from 25-50% and we expect pre-payments to remain a part of future neolcoud deals. IREN has increased its calendar year-end 2026 expected ARR from $3.4b last November to $3.7b in May of this year and, most recently, up to $4.0b. The company has $1b in operating ARR today and delivered the first (Horizon 1) of four 50 MW buildings (200 MW total; capacity as IT unless noted) under the contract with Microsoft. Horizon 2-4 (150 MW total) are expected to be delivered by the end of calendar 2026.
The company's largest contract announcements are with Microsoft and Nvidia, but an unnamed recent signing is a multi-year contract with a leading frontier Al lab. IREN has also signed deals with Prometheus, Figure Al, Perplexity, Together Al, Fluidstack, Hume Al, Fireworks Al, Fal Al, Higgsfield, and Cohere. While the company has laid out its plans to spend $25-30b of capex in FY27, along with substantial increases in opex, we believe the company's ~0.5 GW expansion in 2027 could be signed at materially higher prices than past deals in the $12-15/W range. Any contracts above $15/W would be highly accretive to financials.
We do see some near-term risks for the 2027 pipeline, derived from the current audit on data center interconnection requests in Texas. If the audit and verification process persists beyond the mid-terms in November, projects could see delays in development timelines. As a positive development, IREN last week announced Sweetwater 1 and 2 had both been conditionally included in ERCOT's Batch Zero process as Base Load.
We move to an Overweight rating and establish a Dec-27 PT of $65 (vs. a Dec-26 PT of $46 prior)."
2121
3 Comentários
2Semana
Und das hier auch gerade noch gefunden: "BTIG reiterates Buy on $IREN Limited; PT $80
Analyst comments by Gregory Lewis:
IREN is one of the few vertically integrated (think power and compute) Al service providers with over 5GW of potential power capacity (will soon have ~500MW online) and a preferred provider of Nvidia (NVDA, Not Rated) GPUs, which has helped IREN build a ~$4B run-rate GPU as a service (GPUaaS) business.
More importantly, IREN expects to bring on ~730MW of compute next year, including the first ~300MW at its ~ 2GW Sweetwater site in Texas that management noted is conditionally included in Batch Zero baseload. And while the near-term focus is on building out its GPU footprint in the US, IREN has ~1.1GW of international power capacity in Spain and Australia, which looks well-positioned for work as the rest of the world plays catch-up on its lack of computing power (estimates point to over 80% of Europe's current compute needs happening in the US).
And while we like IREN's power portfolio, its GPU business should benefit from its existing contract structures (~4 years), which should provide repricing opportunities into what we expect to be a strong compute pricing market over the next few years. Bottom line: We expect IREN to continue to benefit from a tight market for both power and compute, which should keep GPU rental rates firm to higher.
We reiterate our Buy rating and $80 PT. "
Analyst comments by Gregory Lewis:
IREN is one of the few vertically integrated (think power and compute) Al service providers with over 5GW of potential power capacity (will soon have ~500MW online) and a preferred provider of Nvidia (NVDA, Not Rated) GPUs, which has helped IREN build a ~$4B run-rate GPU as a service (GPUaaS) business.
More importantly, IREN expects to bring on ~730MW of compute next year, including the first ~300MW at its ~ 2GW Sweetwater site in Texas that management noted is conditionally included in Batch Zero baseload. And while the near-term focus is on building out its GPU footprint in the US, IREN has ~1.1GW of international power capacity in Spain and Australia, which looks well-positioned for work as the rest of the world plays catch-up on its lack of computing power (estimates point to over 80% of Europe's current compute needs happening in the US).
And while we like IREN's power portfolio, its GPU business should benefit from its existing contract structures (~4 years), which should provide repricing opportunities into what we expect to be a strong compute pricing market over the next few years. Bottom line: We expect IREN to continue to benefit from a tight market for both power and compute, which should keep GPU rental rates firm to higher.
We reiterate our Buy rating and $80 PT. "
•
77
•2Semana·
Amodei's call for a "pause" targets the wrong part of the AI value chain
Slows down Dario Amodeis Is the call for a slower pace in AI now hampering the industry’s growth? The Anthropic CEO called for this over the weekend in his essay “We Must Pace the Frontier”—to deliberately slow the advancement of AI model capabilities— OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI CEO Elon Musk publicly agreed within hours.
Amodei’s core argument: Recursive self-improvement and security incidents such as the OpenAI Hugging Face incident showed that the models’ capabilities are growing faster than the ability to control them. His three-step plan begins with independent auditors working directly within the companies. By this, he means not
halt to training, but rather more time for safety work to proceed in parallel with progress.
Why many see this as a brake on growth
Within the community, the call is being interpreted as a warning sign regarding the AI industry’s high growth rates. A slower pace in the release of new models could dampen demand for fresh computing power and thus weigh on the valuations of AI companies and Neoclouds. Coinciding with the announcement, market prices for Anthropic and OpenAI shares fell.
Why this misses the actual driver of growth
Amodei’s appeal targets the training of new models—and it is precisely this part of the AI value chain that is now the smaller and shrinking segment. According to Deloitte, by 2026, around two-thirds of global AI computing power will be directed toward inference (the ongoing operation of already trained models).
And it is precisely this demand for inference that is growing faster than ever before:
- $GOOGL (+0,19%)-Cloud order backlog: from $240 billion to $460 billion within one quarter
- Tokens processed by Google: 16 billion per minute, an increase of 60% compared to the previous quarter
- $MSFT (+0,03%): AI order backlog increased more than twelvefold
- GPU rental prices have grown from ~10 million/MW in early 2026 to as much as ~40–50 million/MW today
So the real bottleneck remains computing power itself, not the political will to slow things down. Microsoft and Google each have investment budgets of around $180–190 billion just to meet demand at all. Training pacing is unlikely to make much of a difference to this scarcity as long as current models are already so powerful for users that demand for their use continues to grow.
Overall , the appeal seems more like a shift in priorities—away from a pure race for capabilities and toward greater safety and control. In my opinion, it is wrong to believe that this will act as a brake on the entire AI value chain.
The largest and fastest-growing part of it—inference—remains virtually untouched by the debate.
This announcement could also come at a strategically opportune time: Training new frontier models costs a great deal of money (tens of billions per model). A deliberately slowed pace would alleviate precisely this cost burden and improve the profitability of Anthropic and OpenAI, just before both are set to make potential IPOs . This safety call—which, incidentally, protects their own balance sheets—comes at just the right time for the model providers.
What are your thoughts on this?
$IREN (+1,48%)$NBIS (+1,34%)$NVDA (+0,88%)$AMZN (+0,35%)$AMD (+0,77%)$WULF (+1,69%)$ORCL (+0,52%)$CSNDX (+0,31%)$AVGO (+0,91%)$SPCX (+0,9%)$PLTR (-0,07%)$META (+0,58%)$CRWV (+1,17%)$DELL (+0,67%)$BE (+1,5%)$MU (+1,83%)
Sources:
https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier
https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/about/press-room/2026-tmt-predictions.html
darioamodei.comDario Amodei — We Must Pace the Frontier
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1 Comentar1Semana
It's really starting to pick up steam! If a bit of euphoria and FOMO kicks in, we might even see four-digit prices. It's also noticeable that it's being traded pretty heavily—up and down—which means there's a lot of speculation involved.
••
2Semana·
IREN: Anthropic or OpenAI confirmed ✅
Geteilt von Agrippa auf Substack:
CCO Kent Draper, speaking at the recent fireside chat, commented on IREN's unnamed frontier AI lab:
"Our unnamed frontier AI lab is one of two, so people can make their own guess."
And with all the breadcrumbs pointing toward Anthropic, I think it’s pretty clear which one it is. More to that in our upcoming deep dive: IREN’s new frontier AI lab client.
2323
2Semana·
Is Astra really as good as everyone says?
OpenAI announced on September 3, released GPT-6 Astra , which shatters all previous AI benchmarks and can generate a playable first-person shooter map in 28 minutes.
Key metrics from OpenAI’s own release:
- FrontierMath Tier 4: 97.6%
- ARC-AGI-3: 99.9%
- OSWorld 2.0 (computer usage): 72.6% with about 47% less time per task than its predecessor, GPT-5.6 Sol, at 65.7%
- ExploitBench: 100% compared to 78.5% for Sol (previous model)
- Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index: 61.2 compared to 60.9 for Sol and 65.7 for Claude Fable 5.1
However, there’s a catch: Astra isn’t designed to be a better chatbot, but rather as computer operator:
It fills out online forms, updates customer records in a CRM system, organizes calendars, conducts research in the browser, creates documents, spreadsheets, and presentations based on templates, and tests finished websites for errors.
Here’s what users have already built with it in the first week:
Astra no longer explains programs like Blender or Unreal Engine—it operates them itself :
- Game map in 28 minutes: Riley Brown had Astra build a first-person shooter map via Codex with full computer access. The log shows 28 minutes and 16 seconds , 20 edited files and 80 automated tests passed —including weapon and audio timing as well as explosion effects.
- A playable world requiring no prior knowledge: Matt Shumer, neither a 3D artist nor a game developer, had a survival world generated in Unreal Engine and set up as a playable character.
The point here isn’t the graphics, but the duration: Tasks spanning hours and days that the model pursues on its own have been the biggest challenge so far.
Astra is also the first model that OpenAI has classified as “Critical” for cybersecurity:
It can find and exploit unknown security vulnerabilities without a human guiding every step. The released version therefore refuses to perform offensive tasks such as building exploits; this capability is only unlocked through the Daybreak defender program. Sam Altman spoke of a “new capability level” for the model.
The leap forward, then, lies in tasks that run for hours and require the management of multiple programs. In terms of pure cognitive ability, the gap is small—in the independent Artificial Analysis Index, Astra is practically on par with its predecessor and trails Claude Fable 5.1.
Those who just chat will hardly notice a difference. Those who delegate work certainly will.
What does this mean for the AI sector?
A model that runs for 28 minutes straight consumes many times more resources than a short chat session and drastically increases token usage. Agent-based work is thus primarily a source of demand for more computing power—and that ends up with $NVDA (+0,88%)the hyperscalers ($AMZN (+0,35%)$GOOGL (+0,19%)$MSFT (+0,03%)) and the neoclouds ($CRWV (+1,17%)$NBIS (+1,34%)$IREN (+1,48%)), which lease out this capacity.
Sources:
https://openai.com/index/gpt-6-astra/
https://openai.com/index/safety-overview-gpt-6-astra/
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/open-ai-astra-gpt-6-cyber.html
1212
5 Comentários
But Claude has already discovered several cybersecurity vulnerabilities on his own, well before Astra did. That's more of an insight into the competition than actually overtaking them, isn't it?
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11
•2Semana·
That wasn't the plan...
I wanted to $IREN (+1,48%) take advantage of the pump to set a stop-loss at €40 to avoid ending up 40% in the red with the stock again, as was the case two months ago.
Well, I did that on the fly during a meeting, and instead of setting a stop-loss at €40, I placed a limit order, which, of course, went through immediately...
What else can I say? The good news is, I got my money back. The bad news is: Now FOMO is kicking in :)
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