Postos
84... it was always clear that I would sell them at the first clear sign of trouble.
Yesterday, a bank downgraded them from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight.” And they’re unlikely to benefit from the current sell-off anyway. Since the stock has grown much larger than I expected—and I’ve already partially sold it in the meantime (it was originally intended as a trade)—I’ve now sold it off completely.
🚀 Month 9 since the start has also gone really well again. 🚀
So far this year, things really only went downhill from mid-June to the end of July, but over the last two months, the upward trend has continued. And yes, the 30k mark has been broken once again 😍
According to the algorithm, I was on track with Lumentum ($LITE (-2,65%) ), Kioxia ($285A (-5,68%) ), Micron ($MU (+1,5%) ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise ($HPE (-7,41%)), Recruit Holdings ($6098) (+3,24%) and Dell ($DELL (-6,89%) ). In addition, outside the algorithm, we are invested in SanDisk ($SNDK (-1,61%) ).
The starting value was around 26,300 euros. Due to capital gains tax on the sale of Western Digital ($WDC (-1,48%) ), 650 euros were lost; however, a capital inflow of 720 euros largely offset the tax.
All in all, September delivered a gain of almost exactly +15% for the satellite portfolio.
+4,000 euros in capital gains 🚀
Who was involved and how it went:
The overall result was driven equally strongly by all of them. Only Recruit Holdings was unable to keep pace with the strength of the others.
YTD, the momentum performance now stands at a strong +110% TTWROR. 🤯😍
The analyses will now show whether there will be any changes for October. At least, that’s what I’m expecting. The analyses are underway...
Only 33 more to go until a million 🥹
Edit: Recruit Holdings is no longer in the portfolio for October. After a long wait, we now officially welcome SanDisk to the MSCI World Index—and thus directly into the portfolio (I’d already held it for a while as a precaution)—and Marvell has also made it back into the lineup. Here’s to a great October, which we’d love to see bring us the 3x.xxx,xx € mark!
Hey, everyone! ☕🍁
It’s great to see so many of you here!
But before we dive deep into the numbers, I have to confess something right off the bat:
Well, that thing about “99% cluster risk & revenue disaster” was, of course, just a nasty clickbait headline—and you all fell for it like a house on fire! 😉
But hey, let’s be honest: It a lie, unfortunately. That number is, after all, set in stone in the financial statements!
After poring over the latest reports in the conservatory with a fresh pot of coffee, we came across a stock that’s currently taking a pretty spectacular nosedive.
We’re talking about TSS $TSSI At first glance, this looks like a total write-off—but anyone familiar with our eye for the extraordinary knows:
It’s precisely where the panic is at its peak that the most exciting turnaround opportunity is sometimes hiding. You’ll find out why the company is still very interesting at the end.
Grab a hot cup of coffee, join us in the heated sunroom, and let’s break this down without any rose-colored AI glasses:
1. Business Model – What Does TSS Actually Do?
TSS plans, configures, integrates, and operates data center and IT infrastructure. The business is essentially divided into:
Procurement: Purchasing and reselling hardware. High revenue, low margins, and volatile.
Systems Integration: Servers—and in particular AI/HPC racks—are configured, integrated, tested, and deployed for customers.
Facilities Management: Operation, maintenance, logistics, and infrastructure related to data centers.
The last two areas, in particular, are exciting. In Q2, Systems Integration grew by 46% to $13.9 million, while Facilities Management grew by as much as 84%. Weak procurement revenue, on the other hand, dragged down total revenue by 20%.
TSS is therefore less of an “AI hardware manufacturer” and more of a provider that ensures the hardware can be installed and operated in the first place.
2. Market Position & Moat—Moat or Garden Gate?
Here, the regulator must immediately pour the first bucket of cold water:
TSS does not have a classic moat.
There is no proprietary chip architecture, no platform with network effects, and no patented miracle technology.
What TSS does have is:
Georgetown, Texas, is particularly interesting. TSS is investing approximately 17 million USDto prepare the facility for NVIDIA’s $NVDA (-2,34%) upcoming Vera Rubin platform . Management expected completion in mid-September and additional revenue primarily starting in Q4.
But there’s an elephant in the room:
Dell most recently accounted for about 99% of revenue.
That’s not a normal customer concentration. It’s practically a dependence on a single company.
If this relationship ends or Dell $DELL (-6,89%) postpones the integration, the lights could go out here very quickly.
Competitive moat: moderate to weak.
Customer Stickiness: high.
Customer Risk: extremely high.
3. Core Quality Formula
Our formula:
Revenue growth + operating margin
Q2 2026: Total revenue: $35.1 million
Year-over-year growth: −20%
GAAP operating income according to the quarterly table: approximately $2.1 million.
Operating margin:
2.1 / 35.1 = approx. 6.0%
Therefore: −20% + 6% = −14 points
➡️ Core Quality Score: −14
According to the specified scale: <15 = weak/speculative.
That looks brutal—and mathematically, it’s correct.
However, you have to understand why revenue is falling:
Procurement plummeted by 45%, while the higher-value systems integration business grew by 46% and facilities management by 84%. At the same time, the gross margin jumped from 16.4% to 22.8%.
So TSSI is currently a mix-shift/turnaround case, not a quality growth compounder.
4. Cash Flow Quality Formula
Here, things get uncomfortable again.
In the first half of 2026:
Operating cash flow: −7.295 million USD
CapEx: 4.609 million USD
Therefore:
FCF = −7.295 − 4.609 = −11.904 million USD
With a market cap of approximately 262 million USD:
H1 FCF yield ≈ −4.5%
Not annualized. Still, the trend is clear.
The Pro Report also shows a negative LTM FCF yield.
➡️ Cash flow quality is currently weak.
However, significant funds are currently being invested in capacity expansion for Vera Rubin. Therefore, the negative FCF here is understandable, but it cannot be ignored.
The company has sufficient liquidity to afford this expansion at the moment.
5. Dividend Filter
In a nutshell:
Dividend: $0.
Therefore:
❌ No 3.5% yield
❌ Not an income stock
❌ Not a cash flow investment
There’s no sugarcoating it here. TSSI is a growth/special-situation bet.
6. P/E ratio
Depending on the data provider, the following figures are currently reported:
Trailing P/E: approx. 18x
Forward P/E: approx. 27x.
The Pro Report from September 18 showed a trailing P/E of 16.9x and a forward P/E of 37.4x; for a company with very limited analyst coverage, the forward multiples fluctuate significantly.
18x trailing is not expensive for an AI infrastructure stock.
However, 27x forward is not an obvious bargain either, given that total revenue is currently shrinking.
The valuation argument is therefore not: “Cheap stock.”
Rather:
“If the higher-margin AI integration business scales significantly, today’s valuation could look favorable in hindsight.”
That’s an important distinction.
7. P/E Ratio
When it comes to cash flow, the classic KCV is currently of little use.
LTM operating cash flow in the Pro-Report: approximately −9.4 million USD.
With a market cap of around 262 million USD, that would mathematically result in approximately:
P/CF ≈ −28 .
However, a negative KCV has no meaningful traditional valuation interpretation.
➡️ KCV currently unusable / warning sign.
8. P/S
TTM revenue: 193.3 million USD
Market Cap: approx. 262 million USD
Therefore: P/S ≈ 1.36
That’s interesting for an AI infrastructure stock.
If systems integration and facilities management account for a larger share of the revenue mix in the future, a P/E ratio of around 1.3 could certainly be attractive as the overall margin increases. But only then.
9. KBV
Equity as of June 30: approximately 80.3 million USD.
Market cap: approximately 262 million
Therefore: P/B ratio ≈ 3.3
Not a deep value play.
But not an absurd AI valuation either.
For TSSI, book value is significantly less important anyway than the question of how much EBITDA its new infrastructure can generate.
10. Current Figures & Catalysts
At first glance, Q2 was dismal: Revenue: $35.1 million, −20% YoY
Expectations around $47.1 million
EPS $0.05 instead of the expected $0.06.
That’s why the stock took a massive hit after the earnings report.
Under the hood, things looked better:
Systems Integration +46%
Facilities Management +84%
Gross margin 22.8% vs. 16.4%
Adjusted EBITDA +12% to $4.5 million
Management also maintained its FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance at the upper end of $20–22 million .
The key catalyst is NVIDIA Vera Rubin
TSS is investing approximately $17 million in power and cooling infrastructure for the next generation of NVIDIA products. The company expects the majority of the revenue contribution from this investment to come primarily starting in Q4 2026.
And this is precisely where regulators need to be meticulous:
As of today, I have not yet been able to find an official announcement stating that the renovation has now been fully completed.
The latest investor relations announcement from September 21 merely concerns an investor event. TSS, Inc.
So no made-up green checkmark. This still needs to be confirmed.
11. Competition & Risks
The risks are not merely cosmetic.
Dependence on Dell: Relying on a single OEM for roughly 99% of revenue is the biggest problem.
Execution Risk: The Vera Rubin expansion must be successful and operate at full capacity.
Supply Chain: Storage, cables, and other rack components sometimes limit throughput.
Volatile Procurement: This can cause extreme fluctuations in a single quarter.
Competition: Larger IT integrators such as CDW, IBM, Accenture, and Rackspace have significantly more resources.
Technological Advances: AI infrastructure is changing extremely rapidly; TSS must invest continuously.
The stock itself: Beta of about 2—this isn’t a stock where you can just sit back and collect dividends.
And once again: The biggest red flag isn’t valuation or debt.
It’s customer concentration.
12. Future Outlook
The key story is this: Today, the business is still dominated by a volatile procurement segment.
Tomorrow, a larger share is expected to come from: AI Rack Integration + Facilities Management + Modular Data Centers .
This would be fundamentally very attractive because these areas generate higher margins.
The CEO even explained during the Q2 earnings call that the company’s current facilities have 2–3 times the capacity of the contractually guaranteed minimum volume; the bottleneck is more a matter of operational efficiency or the supply chain than demand.
In addition, TSS is planning further modular data centers and is explicitly seeking to expand its customer base beyond the currently dominant OEM.
If this succeeds, TSSI could undergo a significant fundamental transformation.
If not, we’ll still have a small service provider that is practically dependent on a single major customer. That’s the bet.
13. Technical Analysis – Weekly Chart
The long-term hype has been completely priced out.
From the range around $30 , the price plummeted. This was followed by a series of lower highs over several months, until it finally stabilized roughly between $7.5 and $9 .
On the weekly chart, I currently see:
Price: back around $9–10
RSI: around the mid-40s—neutral, not overbought
MACD: still below zero, but downward momentum is easing
50-week trend: still problematic
Long-term support: intact
Volatility/ATR: has declined significantly.
In short:
Bottom forming, yes. New long-term uptrend, not yet.
For a speculative turnaround stock, this is actually exactly the phase that gets interesting.
The daily chart is already looking better: MACD is turning upward, RSI has recovered, and since early September we’ve been seeing higher lows.
The first key resistance zone is roughly at: $9.50–$10.30.
After that: $10.8–11.3
and then the significantly tougher zone: $12–$13.
A sustained break above these levels would significantly improve the chart picture.
14. Bargain Hunter’s List – Entry Zones
Now comes the range that the Wintergarten Oversight Committee usually measures with a folding rule.
Zone 1 – Starter: $9.00–9.30
This is the current base. Acceptable for a small entry.
Zone 2 – Good Bargain: $8.20–8.50
Demand has been seen here on multiple occasions. The CRV is becoming significantly more attractive.
Zone 3 – Strong Support Zone: $7.50–7.90
This is the actual September bottom range.
Zone 4 – disaster level: $6.90–7.15
Close to the 52-week low of $6.87. There, the valuation would become extremely attractive—provided there is no fundamental reason for the decline.
And then there’s the momentum scenario:
>$10.20–$10.30 with convincing volume
In that case, you pay a bit more, but in return you get confirmation that the current base has been broken.
Not my favorite strategy:
chasing $10–11 when the stock is already up +10 or +15% in the morning.
15. My Personal Conclusion
All right, feet off the garden table. Now for the reality check.
$TSSI I like it much better than many AI microcaps, because here there’s already:
are in place.
As of June 30, TSS had approximately $67.7 million in cash. The balance sheet is therefore quite solid for a company with a market capitalization of only about $262 million.
What I particularly like is the shift in quality within the business:
Total revenue is down—but high-margin AI integration is surging.
This could be the start of a meaningful transformation.
However: The 99% dependence on Dell is no minor flaw.
That’s why I would never treat TSSI as a safe AI compounder.
Furthermore, free cash flow is currently negative, and the long-term weekly chart hasn’t recovered yet.
So here’s the Terrassenaufsicht verdict:
🟡🟢 TSSI – speculatively interesting, but not yet a quality investment.
No “all in.” No FOMO buy.
But in the range of $8–$9.5 , I find the risk-reward ratio interesting.
If Vera Rubin ramps up as planned, Systems Integration continues to grow at double-digit rates, and TSS simultaneously lands a second major client, the investment case could improve significantly.
For me, this second major client might even be more important than the next impressive revenue record.
Because:
Reducing Dell’s share from 99% to, say, 70–80% would fundamentally transform the company.
Smaller alternatives in the same broader AI infrastructure sector include, for example, Silicom, POET Technologies or Navitas Semiconductor. Some of these companies have more technological leverage, but are either significantly more speculative or are now valued much higher.
As far as I’m concerned, TSSI currently occupies an interesting middle ground:
small enough to offer real upside potential, yet large and operational enough that we’re not just buying PowerPoint slides here.
And so, for now, TSSI gets to keep a seat in the sunroom.
And, of course, everyone else :)
Stock market young and old asset get same to growth fast performance in new era Ai digital hi-tech and supercomputer. $DELL (-6,89%) , $GPRO (-1,94%) its a reason from revolution new era get innovation and market trends still on race to high performance.
•US market sales and dominance product market get benchmark in stock market.
■ Go Pro makes new product in revolution series.
• Dell Enterprise product into race for the future
Slows down Dario Amodeis Is the call for a slower pace in AI now hampering the industry’s growth? The Anthropic CEO called for this over the weekend in his essay “We Must Pace the Frontier”—to deliberately slow the advancement of AI model capabilities— OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI CEO Elon Musk publicly agreed within hours.
Amodei’s core argument: Recursive self-improvement and security incidents such as the OpenAI Hugging Face incident showed that the models’ capabilities are growing faster than the ability to control them. His three-step plan begins with independent auditors working directly within the companies. By this, he means not
halt to training, but rather more time for safety work to proceed in parallel with progress.
Why many see this as a brake on growth
Within the community, the call is being interpreted as a warning sign regarding the AI industry’s high growth rates. A slower pace in the release of new models could dampen demand for fresh computing power and thus weigh on the valuations of AI companies and Neoclouds. Coinciding with the announcement, market prices for Anthropic and OpenAI shares fell.
Why this misses the actual driver of growth
Amodei’s appeal targets the training of new models—and it is precisely this part of the AI value chain that is now the smaller and shrinking segment. According to Deloitte, by 2026, around two-thirds of global AI computing power will be directed toward inference (the ongoing operation of already trained models).
And it is precisely this demand for inference that is growing faster than ever before:
So the real bottleneck remains computing power itself, not the political will to slow things down. Microsoft and Google each have investment budgets of around $180–190 billion just to meet demand at all. Training pacing is unlikely to make much of a difference to this scarcity as long as current models are already so powerful for users that demand for their use continues to grow.
Overall , the appeal seems more like a shift in priorities—away from a pure race for capabilities and toward greater safety and control. In my opinion, it is wrong to believe that this will act as a brake on the entire AI value chain.
The largest and fastest-growing part of it—inference—remains virtually untouched by the debate.
This announcement could also come at a strategically opportune time: Training new frontier models costs a great deal of money (tens of billions per model). A deliberately slowed pace would alleviate precisely this cost burden and improve the profitability of Anthropic and OpenAI, just before both are set to make potential IPOs . This safety call—which, incidentally, protects their own balance sheets—comes at just the right time for the model providers.
What are your thoughts on this?
$IREN (+0,15%)$NBIS (+2,17%)$NVDA (-2,34%)$AMZN (-0,3%)$AMD (-2,13%)$WULF (+11,01%)$ORCL (+2,12%)$CSNDX (-0,25%)$AVGO (-1,2%)$SPCX (-2,4%)$PLTR (-0,35%)$META (-1,01%)$CRWV (+5,01%)$DELL (-6,89%)$BE (-0,7%)$MU (+1,5%)
Sources:
https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier
https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/about/press-room/2026-tmt-predictions.html
⠀
The headline: All 6 firms raised their price targets, with analysts highlighting that Dell’s AI boom is now lifting not just servers, but storage, traditional compute and overall profitability.
Average PT: $614
Implied upside from $464: ~32%
Updated analyst views:
• Melius: Buy — $735 from $650 (+58%)
• Raymond James: Outperform — $617 from $500 (+33%)
• BofA: Buy — $600 from $505 (+29%)
• Mizuho: Outperform — $600 from $500 (+29%)
• Evercore ISI: Outperform — $575 from $550 (+24%)
• Piper Sandler: Overweight — $558 from $497 (+20%)
Why analysts are getting more bullish:
• Q2 revenue reached $47.0B vs. ~$44.9B expected, while EPS of $7.04 crushed the ~$4.90 consensus
• FY27 revenue guidance surged to ~$192B from $167B
• FY27 EPS guidance jumped to ~$25.50 from $17.90
• AI server revenue reached $16.4B, with $61B of orders and backlog climbing to ~$95B
• Dell raised its FY27 AI server revenue outlook to ~$74B from $60B
• Traditional server revenue surged 122% and storage grew 26%, showing AI demand is spreading across the broader infrastructure stack
The margin surprise: Gross margin reached 21.1%, far above expectations, while stronger storage mix and AI scale helped offset component inflation.
The key constraint: Demand continues to exceed available supply across DRAM, NAND, CPUs and other components — BofA estimates demand is running roughly 30% above supply in FY27.
Bottom line: Dell is evolving from an AI-server volume story into a broader infrastructure earnings story. AI is driving server demand, pulling through higher-margin storage and traditional compute, while the massive guidance raise shows the opportunity is translating directly into revenue and earnings.
⠀
📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬
• Adj. EPS: $7.04 (Est. $4.92) ✅, +203% YoY.
• Revenue: $46.97B (Est. $44.51B) ✅, +58% YoY.
• ISG Revenue: $31.78B, +89% YoY.
• AI-Optimized Server Revenue: $16.40B, +100% YoY.
• ISG Operating Income: $4.78B, +225% YoY.
• Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $8.15B, +224% YoY.
⠀
🎯 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞
• Q3 FY2027 Revenue: $49.0B (Est. $41.36B) ✅, +81% YoY.
• Q3 FY2027 Adj. EPS: $6.50.
• FY2027 Revenue: $192.0B (Est. $173.33B) ✅, raised from $167.0B.
• FY2027 Adj. EPS: $25.50 (Est. $18.82) ✅, raised from $17.90.
• FY2027 AI-Optimized Server Revenue: $74.0B, raised from $60.0B.
⠀
📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬
• Revenue surged 58% YoY to a record $46.97B and beat consensus by more than $2B, while Adj. EPS rose 203% and significantly exceeded expectations.
• AI-optimized server revenue doubled YoY to a record $16.4B, while Dell booked $60.9B of AI server orders and exited the quarter with a $95B backlog.
• Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue jumped 89% YoY, with traditional servers and networking up 122% and storage up 26%.
• Dell raised its FY2027 revenue outlook by $25B to $192B and lifted its AI server revenue outlook to $74B.
• The company returned a record $4.3B to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
⠀
💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲
“With AI momentum accelerating and our opportunity expanding across the portfolio, we’re raising our full-year FY27 revenue outlook by $25 billion to $192 billion, up nearly 70% year over year.”
Monday, August 31
🇨🇳 3:30 a.m.: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
🇩🇪 2:00 p.m.: Consumer Prices (Inflation) for August 🌶
Tuesday, September 1
🇩🇪 8:00 a.m.: Retail sales for July
🇺🇸 4:00 p.m.: ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (Manufacturing)
🇺🇸 4:00 p.m.: JOLTs (Job Openings)
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
🇺🇸 8:00 p.m. – Fed Beige Book
Thursday, September 3
🇺🇸 2:30 p.m.: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
🇺🇸 4:00 p.m.: ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (Services)
Friday, September 4
🇺🇸 2:30 p.m.: U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate) 🌶
$AVGO (-1,2%)
$DELL (-6,89%)
$PATH (+3,85%)
$9866 (+3,45%)
$NIO (+3,78%)
$CIEN (-1,18%)
$DELL (-6,89%) Dell isn’t a value trap. It’s something riskier.
Figures as of 4 August 2026.
You’ll hear fund managers on the floor say $DELL is a value trap. I think that label is wrong — and getting it wrong points you at the wrong risk.
A value trap is a stock that stays cheap because the business is decaying. Dell is the opposite. It’s up roughly 260% over twelve months, it printed an all-time high of $469.77 today, and it carries a market cap around $301bn. There is no cheapness left to be trapped in. The cash is real too: $8.6bn of free cash flow in fiscal 2026, $3.1bn in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 alone, and $7.5bn returned to shareholders last year. Genuine value traps don’t convert to cash like that.
Where the critics do have a point
Look at the gross margin: 23.7% → 20.0% → 19.1%.
AI-optimised servers are, in economic terms, thin-margin resale of Nvidia hardware. Revenue grew 88% year over year in Q1 FY27 and AI server revenue hit $16.1bn — but every incremental dollar arrives at a lower margin than the one before it. Dell is buying revenue.
Add the rest of the picture: $31.8bn of total debt, negative shareholders’ equity of about −$2.5bn after years of buybacks, and growing customer concentration among neoclouds. Evercore reckons CoreWeave and xAI alone could account for more than 10% of FY27 AI server revenue. Those customers burn cash and carry junk credit ratings. That isn’t a demand risk — it’s a receivables risk sitting on Dell’s balance sheet.
The right label
Not a value trap. Peak-earnings risk with margin dilution.
The danger isn’t that the stock stays cheap. It’s that you’re buying a cyclical earnings peak on an expanded multiple — double exposure to the same turn. And a low P/E on peak earnings is the oldest optical illusion in the book.
The one test that settles it
Track gross profit in dollars, not revenue growth.
While the gross margin compresses but absolute gross profit keeps climbing, the model works — Dell is trading margin for scale and winning. If gross margin slips below roughly 18% and gross profit stops growing, Dell is buying revenue without buying profit. At that point the sceptics are right — just about two years earlier than they said it.
Next checkpoint: Q2 FY27 results at the end of August.
! Disclosure ! : I trimmed two thirds of my position at $405.50 on 3 August and still hold the rest. Not investment advice — do your own work.
I had bought the stock back then during the Trump tariff dip. I didn't foresee how things would turn out now either, but I certainly thought the bashing of Dell at the time was completely over the top.
Half of it has $MUV2 (+2,31%) gone
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