Alphabet / Waymo $GOOG (-0,57%)

Amazon $AMZN (-1,66%)

Baidu $9888 (-0,77%)

BMW $BMW (-1,32%)

CATL $3750 (-0,97%)

Dassault Systems $DSY (-1,17%)

Hexagon $HEXA B (-1,26%)

Mercedes-Benz $MBG (-1,24%)

Mobileye $MBLY

NVIDIA $NVDA (-0,36%)

Siemens $SIE (-2,12%)

SONY $6758 (-1,8%)

Qualcomm $QCOM (-0,3%)

Tesla $TSLA (-1,88%)

Link: https://shorturl.at/WJzuf

$9888 (-0,77%)

Chinese company Baidu has applied for a patent for artificial intelligence (AI) technology that can translate animal sounds into human speech, the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday.

Baidu reportedly filed the patent application back in December, but the Chinese Intellectual Property Office only published it on Tuesday.

The patent describes a method for capturing data from animals - vocalizations, body language, behavioral changes and other biological signals - in order to detect their emotional state and

to capture their emotional state and then translate it into a specific human language.

According to Baidu, the system uses several branches of AI, such as machine learning, deep learning and natural language processing.

If the system recognizes a sound that does not match historical data, researchers manually label the input to retrain the model.

Although the application reveals considerable technical ambition, it does not indicate when or if Baidu intends to commercialize the technology.

Publication of the filing does not guarantee approval. You Yunting, senior partner at law firm Shanghai Debund, said the review process could take one to three years, or even longer in more complex cases.

What did I take with me?

It is not a crisis because >\=20% down but a good entry into tranches.

Which stocks were discussed?

$P911 (-0,68%) Unfortunately I've been in Porsche since 2023, when luxury comes back, the Chinese will buy Porsche and not locally

$ABX and $NEM (+1,12%) Barrick and Newmont buy the shovels not the gold. Gold is for value preservation, not for speculation. I was invested in mines decades ago.

$MC (-0,85%) LVMH surprised me, I thought the air was out, will have a look.

$META (-0,01%) I finally understood how Facebook makes money. There's still a lot to come. First purchase?

$GOOGL (-0,99%) Yes, I've been adding to my portfolio since 25.

$H1PE34 Hewlett Packard Enterprise, I only knew it as a hardware manufacturer, here is the shovel for AI Ai chips.

$9988 (-2,19%) and $9888 (-0,77%) Chinese Baidu and Alibaba. I also had it 10 years ago, after the high it went down bloody. But will probably be seen again as a turnaround and cash flow for 2025.

$TTD (+3,4%) I was not aware of Trade Desk until today.

$22U Biontech became known as a corona profiteer, but is looking for the cancer vaccine.

These 10 stocks were discussed as stronger buys on the spot.

Which stocks are of interest to you, or where are you buying now?

First of all: yes, I am aware of the risks. We don't necessarily need to discuss that 😇

Aim of the post: if you trade knock-out certificates, for example, what strategies do you have? If you have one, is it based on technical or fundamental data? Or both?

About the transaction: It is a KO certificate on alibaba. Bought sometime q3 2024 when the strike price was around 65$ (ADR), sold in February 2025 when the strike price was around 140$ - so held against every "recommendation" for many months (instead of a few weeks). I had put in 2500€.

What was my "strategy"?

I decided to avoid a market 100% when it is in a correction/bear market - no matter how good the company is. That's what I learned in 2022 $TSLA (-1,88%) when they went down to 100$. I bought at 150$ and thought to myself what everyone was probably thinking "it can't go any lower 😅. Experience shows that no "support zones", which I looked at on a weekly basis on marketscreener.com, hold in such phases. Since I have no idea about charting, that was my only "tool" 😅... and bang... I was knocked out. Ergo: USA 100% currently ruled out for KO certificates.

Change of strategy 🔄

With $BABA (-1,65%) I thought of the following:

- The hang seng had moved sideways after the real estate crisis

- At the beginning of 2024 there was no recovery, but the real estate market and the economy stabilized for the first time, which led me to look more positively at China - so I continued to hold.

- The fact that China equities were massively undervalued at the time also confirmed my "strategy".

- At the end of 2024, there were indeed slight recoveries in China, which the Hang Seng reflected.

The bet has been absorbed.

I made another bet a few weeks ago on $9888 (-0,77%) a few weeks ago.

What strategies/tools do you use if you trade KO Zerts? I would be really interested. After all, you never stop learning 🫡

Disclaimer: the times mentioned are from the memory log, in case there are internet sherlocks around here 🥸☺️

Baidu has released two new AI models today

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/kuenstliche-intelligenz-so-gut-wie-deepseek-halb-so-teuer-mit-diesen-ki-modellen-will-baidu-aufholen/100114083.html

$9888 (-0,77%)

If you don't want to read the report...below is a short summary

1. the US labor market and the risk of recession

The US economy is in a precarious phase. The S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day line for the first time since October 2023. Even more critical is the price ratio of the S&P 500 to US Treasuries ($TLT)which is once again at the 200DMA line, essentially a support level that has served as a psychological barrier against a bear market since December 2020 (Chart 2). The most recent Februar-Payroll-Daten with 151k new jobs was right in the middle of nowhere. A jobs report of over 200k would have been a strong reading and would have indicated that the US economy is robust enough to withstand higher interest rates. Stock markets would have stabilized as there was no imminent threat of recession; a report of 125k would have been a weak reading and would have indicated a cooling economy and falling corporate profits. The market would have slipped into a bear market phase, while bonds would have benefited as a safe haven.151k jobs lie exactly between these thresholds and offer no clear basis for interpretation.

Another alarming signal comes from the ratio of US consumer discretionary stocks to Staples stockswhich has reached an all-time high (Chart 5). For decades, this ratio has been a reliable early indicator of an imminent weak phase for the S&P 500. You could say that the USA is one payroll report away from a recession. The background to this is the dwindling influence of government job subsidies: In January 2025, the following 70% des Arbeitsmarktwachstums came from the public sector, a significant decline from 85% in the previous year. At the same time, the household savings rate is rising.

2 Global military spending: Europe in a fiscal dilemma

Germany's military expenditure amounts to only 7% of US spending, the United Kingdom reaches 8% (Charts 6 and 7). This explains why European budget deficits are exploding: For Germany, an average deficit of -4% of GDP is forecast for Germany for the period 2025-2030 (Chart 9). The "Whatever-it-takes" policy on Merz is driving the yields of German Bundesanleihen to over 3% (15-year high) and British Gilts to over 5,5% (27-year high).

German Bund yields could overtake US Treasuries this year (Chart 3).

3. flight to safety, exodus at risk

• $965515 (+0,26%) recorded the largest 4-week inflow of all time (USD 9.9 bn, chart 12). Gold is seen as a safe haven as investors seek hedges in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and looming recessions.

• Crypto funds experienced a record outflow of USD 3.6 billion (Chart 13), the largest since records began. Volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum and regulatory concerns are deterring institutional investors.

• Infrastructure funds recorded the largest outflow of all time (USD 0.9 bn, Chart 15) as rising interest rates weigh on the valuation of long-term projects.

• European equities saw the strongest 4-week inflow since August 2015 (USD 12 bn, chart 14). The drivers are the relatively low valuations and the focus on European industrial companies and banks.

• Emerging markets saw the largest inflow in three months (USD 2.4 bn), supported by China's tech revival and India's reform momentum.

• TIPS saw an 8-week inflow streak, the longest since December 2021, as investors want to be prepared for potential stagflation.

4 AI shock and tech

The DeepSeek AI shock has rearranged the tech bubble. The Magnificent 7 ($AAPL (-0,86%) , $MSFT (-0,16%) , $NVDA (-0,36%) , $AMZN (-1,66%) , $GOOGL (-0,99%) , $META (-0,01%) ) lost 3 trillion USD in market capitalization and are now known as the Lagnificent 7 are mocked. At the same time, the market capitalization of China's BATX ($9888 (-0,77%) , $9988 (-2,19%) , $700 (-1,94%) , $1810 (+2,4%)) to 1.6 trillion USDa sign that Chinese companies are catching up in the AI sector.

This shift is also reflected in the US-ISM-Manufacturing-PMI-Daten (Charts 10 & 11): The recent rise to 55 points is seen as tariff frontrunning interpreted. Companies stocked up their inventories ahead of time in order to circumvent expected trade barriers (e.g. new US tariffs on Chinese semiconductors). However, this short-term upswing masks structural weaknesses: The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio (Chart 11) points to an imminent slowdown in industrial activity. The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio compares the performance of cyclical stocks (industrials, commodities, consumer goods) with that of defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples). Basically serves as a leading indicator for economic expectations.

5. forecasts 2025: strategic decisions

Recommendation: Buy 30YUST with a yield target of below 4%. Reasons:

• The US government is ending its 5-year phase of excessive spending, leading to a decline in demand.
• 70% of job growth in January 2025 came from the public sector, a sign of private sector weakness.

At the same time, one can UK Gilts & EU bonds can be classified as sell candidates. The yields of UK gilts are at 5,5% (27-year high), driven by the cost of rearmament and a budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP.

Equities: Europe and China in focus

• European markets: The DAX (+18% YTD) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (+13% YTD) are benefiting from undervalued industrial companies and banks. Despite a net outflow of USD 255 bn since 2022 flowed for the first time in the last 4 weeks 4 bn USD returned for the first time, a good sign.

• China: H-shares (+23% YTD) are attracting capital as Chinese tech companies benefit from the AI revolution and government subsidies.

• India: Small caps are 21% below their September 2024 high (Chart 4), but offer long-term opportunities in the context of the Make in India Initiative

Weak dollar, strong exporters

A weak US dollar favors European and Chinese exporters. At the same time US semiconductors could experience a recovery: The equal-weighted Semiconductor Index($esox) has 73% of its gains since the ChatGPT hype in May 2023. The tech sector also saw an inflow for the first time in 5 weeks (USD 2.6bn).

6. trouble spots: Japan and the ticking debt bomb

The 30-jährigen JGB-Renditen are quoted at 2,5% (17-year high), while the Bank of Japan with a key interest rate of 0,5% well behind the wage growth (5-6%) is lagging behind wage growth. Should the BoJ tighten its policy in order to regain credibility, there is a risk of a Nikkei Sell Offsimilar to the in August 2024when the yen appreciated sharply and Carry-Trades collapsed. If it fails to act, the weakness of the yen could push up import costs further and exacerbate stagflation.

7. summary 2025

2025 will be dominated by three megatrends:

• Long-dated US Treasuries and gold serve as protection against recession and stagflation.
• Europe and China take advantage of the weakness of the US dollar and technological upheavals.
• Japan's debt crisis, Europe's fiscal overheating and the fragility of the US labor market.

• Buy: European industrial stocks ($SIE (-2,12%) , $ASML (-0,18%) ), China's BATX, 30-year US Treasuries, gold.
• Dont's: UK/EU bonds, crypto, infrastructure funds.
• Wacth: BoJ policy, US payroll data, Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

The analyst conference of Baidu ($9888 (-0,77%) ) for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 offered exciting insights into the company's development, especially in the areas of generative AI, autonomous driving and cloud computing. CEO Robin Li emphasized that AI investments are now showing their first monetary successeswhereby ERNIE and AI Cloud are key growth drivers. The open source strategy for ERNIE 4.5 marks a decisive turning point in driving the adoption of Baidu's AI technology and hold its own against global competitors.

CFO Junjie He presented the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024:

• Total revenue:
  RMB 34.1 billiona decrease of 2 % compared to the previous year.
• Baidu core revenue:
  RMB 27.7 billiona slight increase of 1 %.
• AI Cloud revenue:
  +26 % year-on-year, showing strong growth potential.
• Online marketing revenue:
  -7% to RMB 17.9 billionburdened by difficult market conditions.
• Apollo Go (robotaxi service):
  1.1 million rides in the quarter, +36% YoY.
• Free cash flow:
  RMB 13.1 billionunderlines the financial stability.

While the advertising business declinedBaidu was able to grow in the AI cloud and autonomous driving achieved strong progress. ERNIE's API calls increased by 178 % compared to the previous quarter, underlining the increasing use of generative AI.

For 2025 Baidu sees solid growth in the AI cloud business and expects increasing monetization of its AI search AI search capabilities.

Robin Li presented three central growth areas for Baidu:

• Open source strategy for ERNIE 4.5: By free provision Baidu wants to scale the use of ERNIE and make it easier for developers to compare it with other foundation models models.
• Transforming search through generative AI:
  22% of search result pages already contain AI-generated contentwhich increases increases user engagement.
• Strong growth in AI Cloud: The increasing demand for Foundation Models will further drive the continue to drive the cloud business in 2025.

Apollo Go, the robotaxi service from Baiduhas already over 9 million trips proven its scalability and is expanding to Hong Kong.

The Q&A session showed that investors are primarily focused on the monetization of AI initiatives, the advertising business and the growth prospects for AI Cloud.

A key topic was Baidu's decision to make ERNIE 4.5 open source. Robin Li explained that models only have commercial value if they are used on a large scale. By making them available free of charge, Baidu hopes to increase their distribution and convince developers of ERNIE's strengths.

Lincoln Kong (Goldman Sachs) questioned how the integration of generative AI into search affects the business model. Rong Luo explained that Baidu is already adding AI-generated content to 22% of its search results pages, which has increased user engagement and search frequency.

Alex Yao (JPMorgan) asked about the advertising outlook for 2025, Luo acknowledged that competition in digital advertising remains high, but Baidu expects a gradual recovery. The long-term goal is to improve the monetization of AI search and personalized ads.

Gary Yu (Morgan Stanley) wanted to know how AI Cloud will develop. Dou Shen emphasized that Baidu AI Cloud expects a strong year in 2025 as companies increasingly use foundation models.

The topic of autonomous driving was also in focus. Xiaomeng Zhuang (Bank of America Securities) asked about the expansion plans for Apollo Go. Robin Li confirmed that Apollo Go is already operating profitably in several Chinese cities and is now expanding to Hong Kong.

Conclusion: Baidu continues to focus heavily on generative AI and AI Cloud, while the advertising business remains under pressure in the short term. The open source strategy for ERNIE 4.5 shows the long-term goal of establishing itself as the leading AI platform in China.

I hope you enjoyed the summary!

Podcast episode 73 "Buy High. Sell Low."

Subscribe to the podcast to beat cancer.

00:00:00 Donald Trump inauguration

00:15:40 Tempus AI A40EDP $TEM (-4,63%)

00:26:00 Groupon $GRPN (-4,34%)

00:30:20 Palantir $PLTR

00:35:00 Insider Trading

00:40:20 Netflix $NFLX (+0,8%)

00:59:00 Adobe AI $ADBE (-0,33%)

01:01:00 Alibaba $BABA (-1,65%)
$9988 (-2,19%)

01:07:40 Baidu $BIDU (-0,82%)
$9888 (-0,77%)

01:15:15 JD com $9618 (-2,13%)
$89618
$JD (-2,21%)

01:16:40 PDD Holdings $PDD (-0,78%)

01:19:00 Xpeng $9868 (-1,62%)
$XPEV (-1,62%)

01:21:00 Nio, BYD, Xiaomi, Huawei $9866 (-0,61%)
$NIO (-0,42%)$1810 (+2,4%)
$XIACY (+1,86%)
$81810

01:28:00 Li Auto $AUTO (-0,04%)
$LI (-0,86%)

01:35:20 Bitcoin $BTC (-0,55%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4xzXvdMeMtWs5fgYoQaNHU?si=3JuxaaqaQ2KM55PHh5IYWg

YouTube

https://youtu.be/tz6CaqL8wtc

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-73-netflix-tempus-ai-palantir-alibaba-bitcoin/id1695869891?i=1000685089794

#bitcoin
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#aktien#podcast
#spotify

I would like to initiate a discussion on the occasion of the recently announced 500 billion dollar Stargate project in the USA.

Do you think it is possible for Europe to catch up with the existing technological backlog? Or is "Stargate" the final nail in the coffin? And which countries do you see at the forefront of the AI age in the future?

For me, these countries are on the winning side:

USA 🇺🇸 - The USA has been at the forefront of technology right from the start. OpenAI (ChatGPT), Alphabet $GOOGL (-0,99%) (Gemini), Meta $META (-0,01%) Microsoft $MSFT (-0,16%) .... The list of companies relevant to the industry is long. Nowhere else in the world is more invested in AI. "Stargate" will now increase this imbalance many times over

China 🇨🇳 - China acts independently of the West and yet is still a major player with companies such as Tencent $TCEHY (-1,8%) , Alibaba $BABA (-1,65%) , Huawei, Xiaomi $1810 (+2,4%) and Baidu $9888 (-0,77%) are ideally positioned. Chinese companies are fast and innovative. The gigantic subsidies from the Chinese government also play a decisive role in this context. Another advantage is that the Chinese are currently receiving energy from Russia virtually as a gift.

Japan 🇯🇵 - With SoftBank, Japan has $9984 (+2,66%) a real AI champion in its country. In Japan, NVIDIA and SoftBank $NVDA (-0,36%) and SoftBank are building a joint innovative AI infrastructure. The fact that SoftBank and OpenAI are to be the lead partners in the Stargate project and that Masayoshi Son (CEO of SoftBank) will chair the new company will benefit Japan. The huge assets that are being built up there will flow back into the home country in one way or another. The close cooperation with the government (+high subsidies), the leading position in robotics and the recent developments in the semiconductor industry should also be noted.

Singapore 🇸🇬 - Very small country, lots of money, very good government, very well-educated population, lots of expats, lots of foreign investment, very few logistical challenges as a city state...... So things are looking VERY good for Singapore.

UAE 🇦🇪 /Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦/Qatar 🇶🇦 - Rich Gulf states that will invest billions in AI projects abroad (e.g. UAE participation in "Stargate"). They will generate large returns on these investments, while at the same time investing in the digitalization of their own country, thereby bringing great prosperity to their relatively small populations. Although there is also a large expat community in the UAE, including in the field of AI, I think that the Gulf states will mainly benefit from their investment funds.

I am unsure about these countries unsure:

Canada 🇨🇦 - Canada is innovative and wealthy, but there are not really any relevant companies in the AI sector. In addition, the universities are middle class and they lose a lot of talent to their neighbor, the USA. However, the country has potential, also because it is very attractive for foreign specialists.

Taiwan 🇹🇼 - TSMC $2330 from Taiwan supplies the world with chips, including those urgently needed for AI, but the country's heavy dependence on a single company, which has recently been expanding abroad (especially Japan and the USA), poses a risk. The development of the conflict with China and the possible success of Rapidus from Japan and Samsung in the field of 2nm chips will also be decisive for Taiwan's future in the field of AI.

South Korea 🇰🇷 - Technological leader, politically unstable. Companies like Samsung $005930 and SK Hynix $000660 from South Korea are leaders in the field of AI. There is a great deal of expertise in the country and the government is also supporting the transformation. However, I am unsure about the excessive dependence on the chaebols (e.g. Samsung), which account for an unhealthily large proportion of economic output. The dysfunctionality of the rule of law due to corrupt politicians and courts, the recent very tense domestic political situation and the constant threat from neighboring North Korea should also be viewed critically.

India 🇮🇳 - The next few years will show whether India can become the new China. India is growing dynamically and, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, has a huge potential workforce, but it is still heavily dependent on foreign know-how. India is not as innovative as developed countries and has to deal with domestic challenges such as hunger, which could make investment in AI more difficult. Indian companies are very open to AI and are trying to adapt it quickly, but developing it is another matter.

The Netherlands 🇳🇱 - With ASML $ASML (-0,18%) the Netherlands is home to one of the most important companies when it comes to AI. Without ASML's machines, the particularly advanced chips required for AI could not be produced. This puts the Netherlands, with its small population, in a rather comfortable position. However, it is also heavily dependent on a single company, which is also increasingly being targeted by geopolitics, with the result that the USA regularly blackmails the Netherlands to dictate where it has to deliver these machines. Recently, there have also been developments that threaten ASML's monopoly.

Germany 🇩🇪 - Germany is good at AI research, but there is a lack of AI champions. Companies such as Siemens $SIE (-2,12%) are doing well in terms of industrial AI and SAP is also $SAP (+0,18%) is investing heavily in its own AI, but there is still no sign of a German export hit in the field of AI. There is also a massive lack of investment in AI infrastructure and politicians are blocking rather than promoting. There is a general lack of a national vision, a combination of strategic policy and large-scale private investment, as is the case in other countries. The EU is also more of an obstacle to new investments. The concept of joint ventures is also used less in this country, although this could help to pool knowledge and resources in order to make a difference for one's own country. So all is not lost, but a political reorientation and new entrepreneurial courage are needed to catch up, which is getting bigger every day.

France 🇫🇷 - The French are also innovative and have an AI star in their country with Mistral AI, but they have similar problems to the Germans. Politics at national and EU level and the lack of major investments and new infrastructure are paralyzing the country.

UK 🇬🇧 - With universities such as Oxford and Cambridge, the UK has been conducting top-level research for a long time, including in the field of AI. They are innovative with many expats from abroad, although recently less from continental Europe. Unfortunately, however, they do not have any notable tech companies to call their own. Two of the most innovative tech companies and British hopefuls, ARM $ARM (-2,69%)

and Graphcore, are now both owned by the aforementioned Japanese SoftBank Group, but this does not mean that the UK can no longer benefit from the positive development of these companies. Nevertheless, they are no longer British.

ConclusionIt will not be easy for Europe to catch up. The competitors are mostly fast, very financially strong, innovative and led by visionaries. We cannot compete with a fragmented capital market, slow decision-making processes and bureaucrats from Brussels. However, it is also clear that the potential is there. We (still) have many bright minds here, but without a fundamental change in policy, decisive reforms and some pioneering spirit, I believe it will be impossible to catch up. The window of opportunity is getting smaller.

How do you see it all? Do you disagree somewhere or are you missing an important country?