Swiss Re

Analyst updates, 18.11.

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- MORGAN STANLEY raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 212 to EUR 220. Overweight. $SIE (-0,06%)

- HSBC raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 660 to EUR 700. Buy. $RHM (+0,42%)

- HSBC raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 33.50 to EUR 34. Buy. $DTE (-0,16%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 275 to EUR 310. Buy. $ALV (-0,03%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 52 to EUR 57. Buy. $ENR (-0,37%)

- UBS upgrades AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from USD 338 to USD 375. $APD (+0,05%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 127 to CHF 138. Outperform. $SREN (-0,03%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 523 to EUR 551. Overweight. $MUV2 (-0,1%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for HANNOVER RÜCK from EUR 206 to EUR 217. Underweight. $HNR1 (-0,08%)

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- MORGAN STANLEY lowers the target price for BAYER from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Equal-Weight. $BAYN (-0,06%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the target price for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60.50 to EUR 59. Buy. $SHL (-0,08%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades KNAUS TABBERT to Hold. Target price EUR 15. $KTA (+0,37%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SGL CARBON from EUR 10.60 to EUR 9. Buy. $SGL (-0,3%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for PVA TEPLA from EUR 18 to EUR 14.50. Hold. $TPE (-0,76%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 340 to EUR 320. Buy. $KER (-0,02%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades BECHTLE to Neutral. Target price 37 EUR. $BC8 (-0,16%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 27 to EUR 23. Equal-Weight. $UTDI (+0,2%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for 1&1 from EUR 19 to EUR 17. Equal-Weight. $1U1 (+0,17%)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for AIR LIQUIDE from EUR 195 to EUR 190. Buy. $AI (-0,04%)

- HSBC downgrades PORSCHE SE from Hold to Reduce and lowers target price from EUR 36 to EUR 26. $PAH3 (+0,03%)

Summary Earnings, 14.11. 👇🏼

Siemens AG Q4 24 Earnings: $SIE (-0,06%)

- Orders At 22.93Bln Euros (est 21.36 Bln Euros)

- Revenue Rising 1% To 20.81 Bln Euros (est 20.77 Bln Euros)

- Profit 3.12 Bln Euros (est 3.0 Bln Euros)

- Net Income Of 1.90 Bln Euros (est 1.80 Bln Euros)

Swiss Re Q3 24 Earnings: $SREN (-0,03%)

- Net Income Of $2.2 Billion For The First Nine Months Of 2024

- 9m Return On Investments (ROI) Of 3.9%; Recurring Income Yield Of 4.0%

- Return On Equity (ROE) Of 13.4% For First Nine Months Of Year

- Still Expects To Achieve A Group Net Income Of More Than $3 Billion For 2024

- Currently Expects Losses Resulting From Hurricane Milton To Be Less Than $300 Mln, Which Will Impact Group Results In Q4 2024

E.ON SE 9M 24 Earnings: $EOAN (+0,07%)

- Adj EBIT EU4.37B, -23% (Y/Y)

- Sales EU56.28B, -19% (Y/Y)

- Still Sees FY Adj EBITDA EU8.8B To EU9B, (est EU8.94B)

- Still Sees FY Adj Net EU2.8B To EU3B (est 2.92B)

Deutsche Telekom AG Q3 24 Earnings: $DTE (-0,16%)

- Net Income EUR 2.957B (est EUR 2.396B)

- Adjusted EBITDA AL EU11.10B (est 11.05B)

- Rev EU28.50B (est 28.39B)

- Sees FY Adj EBITDA Al About EU43B

ASML is sticking to its long-term goals and plans to increase sales to between 44 and 60 billion euros by 2030, with a gross margin of 56 to 60 percent. Despite the current difficult market conditions, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet sees promising long-term prospects for the semiconductor industry, especially due to the AI trend. $ASML (-0,5%)

Talanx expects a record profit of over 1.9 billion euros for 2024 and a surplus of over 2.1 billion euros for 2025. The profit increase will be supported by primary insurance and new targets are to be presented at the Capital Markets Day on December 11. $TLX (-0,06%)

Nagarro increased sales by 3.7 percent to 242.9 million euros in the third quarter and adjusted EBITDA by a good eight percent to 34.6 million euros. The company is adjusting its revenue forecast for 2024 to 960 million euros and expects an EBITDA margin of over 14 percent. $NA9 (+0,03%)

Adesso recorded an increase in turnover of 15 percent to 330 million euros in the third quarter and a 37 percent rise in operating profit to 38.9 million euros. Jörg Schroeder will step down as Chief Financial Officer on April 30, 2025; his successor will be Michael Knopp from January 15, 2025. $ADN1 (+0%)

Dermapharm increases turnover in the first nine months by just under three percent to 890.1 million euros, while adjusted EBITDA falls slightly to just over 240 million euros. However, consolidated net income rose to just under 93 million euros, and the Group CEO is optimistic for the final quarter. $DMP (+0,25%)

Energiekontor sees itself on course for its annual targets after nine months with an expected pre-tax result of EUR 30 to 70 million, although the upper end of the range will not be reached due to the below-average wind year. Three projects with 79 MW have already been commissioned this year and several more projects are currently being marketed. $EKT (+0,39%)

The financial services provider MLP increased revenue by twelve percent to EUR 746 million in the first nine months and EBIT by almost half to EUR 66 million. The company confirms its forecast for 2024 with EBIT of between EUR 85 and 95 million and expects EBIT of EUR 100 to 110 million in 2025. $MLP (+0,49%)

GFT Technologies is again lowering its annual targets and now expects revenue growth of 10 percent to around EUR 865 million and adjusted EBIT of around EUR 77 million. Profit before taxes is expected to fall to around EUR 65 million, as the environment remains challenging and momentum in the coming months will be lower than expected. $GFT (-0,11%)

ProSiebenSat.1 is lowering its forecast for the year due to weak TV advertising revenues and expects an adjusted operating result of less than EUR 575 million. The Group plans to sell Flaconi and Verivox in order to invest in Joyn, programs and debt reduction. $PSM (-0,05%)

Wacker Neuson is again lowering its annual targets and now expects revenue of EUR 2.2 to 2.3 billion and an EBIT margin of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. In the third quarter, the company reports a drop in revenue of over 20 percent and a 61 percent fall in EBIT. $WAC (+0%)

Cewe confirms its annual targets with sales of between 770 and 820 million euros and an EBIT of 77 to 87 million euros, with the upper half of the ranges being targeted. The company generates most of its profits in the Christmas quarter and posts a marginally positive EBIT in the summer quarter, despite increased marketing expenditure. $CWC (-0,1%)

Merck KGaA reports a 1.8 percent increase in sales to 5.3 billion euros in the third quarter, while the adjusted operating result rises by 12 percent to over 1.6 billion euros. CEO Belén Garijo announces that sales for 2024 are expected to be in the lower half of the previous range. $MRK (-0,15%)

Bilfinger records revenue growth of 15 percent to just under EUR 1.3 billion in the third quarter and increases operating profit by 35 percent to EUR 76 million, supported by good demand and the latest acquisition. The Executive Board confirms the adjusted annual targets with an increase in revenue to EUR 4.8 to 5.2 billion for 2024, also taking into account a savings program and special effects from the integration of Stork. $GBF (+0%)

K+S is revising its production forecast for 2024 downwards due to high sickness rates and now expects an operating result (EBITDA) of around EUR 540 million. In the third quarter, the company reports a decline in sales and EBITDA, with profits exceeding analysts' expectations but remaining below consensus estimates for the full year. $SDF (-0,11%)

Analsyst updates, 08.11.

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- GOLDMAN upgrades BIONTECH from Neutral to Buy and raises price target from USD 90 to USD 137. $BNTX (-0,9%)

- BOFA raises target price for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 9 to USD 13. Neutral. $UAA (+0,12%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 29 to EUR 35. Hold. $DHE

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 197 to EUR 200. Buy. $SIE (-0,06%)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HOCHTIEF from EUR 135 to EUR 138. Buy. $HOT (+0,19%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60 to EUR 62. Buy. $SHL (-0,08%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 19. Buy. $NDX1 (-0,13%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RATIONAL from 832 EUR to 841 EUR. Hold. $RAA (-0,12%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AXA from 37 EUR to 39 EUR. Buy. $CS (+0,04%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for BASTEI LÜBBE from EUR 11.70 to EUR 12.20. Buy. $BST (-0,26%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ARCELORMITTAL from EUR 28 to EUR 29. Buy. $MT (+0,24%)

- DZ BANK raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 130 to CHF 140. Buy. $SREN (-0,03%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 99 to EUR 110. Neutral. $HEI (-0,12%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 35 to EUR 41. Hold. $DTG (+0,23%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX upgrades REDCARE PHARMACY from Reduce to Hold. $RDC (+0%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HENKEL from EUR 67 to EUR 73. Neutral. $HEN (-0,1%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 27 to EUR 28. Neutral. $FNTN (-0,32%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for ABOUT YOU from EUR 3.10 to EUR 3.40. Underweight. $YOU (-0,08%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 108 to EUR 125. Overweight. $NEM (+0,08%)

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- BOFA lowers the price target for PINTEREST from USD 45 to USD 39. Buy. $PINS

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 56 to EUR 55. Buy. $DTG (+0,23%)

- UBS lowers the price target for JCDECAUX from EUR 21.60 to EUR 18.50. Neutral. $DEC (+0,13%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ADTRAN HOLDING from EUR 9.70 to EUR 9.30. Buy. $ADTN (-0,44%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 17. Outperform. $NDX1 (-0,13%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VESTAS from DKK 99 to DKK 80. Underweight. $VWS (-0,59%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 59. Buy. $FRA (-0,3%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for GSK from GBP 15.50 to GBP 14.50. Equal-Weight. $GSK

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 23 to EUR 21. Buy. $COP (+0%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 41 to EUR 39. Buy. $JUN3 (-0,76%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 87 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (-0,49%)

Hurricane Milton: How the game between customers, insurers and reinsurers works

Reading time: approx. 3-4 minutes

As Hurricane Milton approaches, it is not only the people in the coastal regions of Florida who are facing a challenge, but also the insurance industry. But how exactly does the interaction between insurers and reinsurers actually work in the event of such major disasters? Who bears which risk and who earns or pays in the event of a disaster?

1. policyholders: the customers

That's us - the private individuals and companies who take out insurance policies. Whether it's household contents, buildings or life insurance, customers regularly pay premiums to protect themselves against certain risks such as natural disasters, accidents or other unforeseen events. When a hurricane like Milton strikes and the house is destroyed, the insurer steps in to cover the damage - provided it is covered by the policy.

What do customers pay?

The premiums we pay to insurance companies are based on the risk we pose. If we live in a storm-prone region, the premiums for natural catastrophe insurance increase.

2. insurers: who pays in the event of major damage?

Insurance companies collect premiums from their customers and use this money to pay for damages that occur during the year. However, natural disasters such as Hurricane Milton can swallow up huge sums that far exceed what insurance alone can cover. This is why insurance companies take out insurance policies for themselves - this is the role of reinsurers.

What do insurers pay?

After a hurricane like Milton, they have to pay the insured customers' claims. These sums can quickly run into the billions. To protect themselves from excessive losses, insurers transfer part of their risk to reinsurers.

3. reinsurers: the insurers' insurance

Reinsurers - like $SREN (-0,03%) or $MUV2 (-0,1%) - assume part of the risks of the insurance companies. Suppose an insurance company covers USD 500 million in claims but does not want to bear the full risk. It pays a premium to the reinsurer, who then assumes part of the risk. If Hurricane Milton causes major damage, the reinsurer steps in and covers part of the insurer's losses.

What do reinsurers pay?

Reinsurers pay out in the event of major disasters if the losses exceed a certain threshold. In return, they collect premiums from the insurers, just as the insurers do from their customers.

4 Why are reinsurance rates rising?

Natural disasters such as Hurricane Milton lead to huge amounts of damage. To protect themselves against future catastrophes, reinsurers often increase their prices after such events. These rate adjustments then affect the insurers, who could pass on higher costs to their customers.

This means that insurers pay more for reinsurance after major disasters, which could also mean higher premiums for customers in the long term.

A finely tuned system

The interaction between customers, insurers and reinsurers is a complex system that is designed to spread risks widely. Each participant - from the customer to the insurer to the reinsurer - bears a share of the risk so that in the event of major disasters such as Hurricane Milton, no single party has to bear the costs alone. In calm years, the industry earns from the premiums paid. But as soon as major natural events occur, as is expected with Hurricane Milton, it becomes clear how well the system really works - and who pays in the end. Ah, and by the way - whether reinsurers are needed

Happy investing! 😊

GG

Aaaaaach and by the way:

Do we even need reinsurers?

Reading time: 1 minute

Pro reinsurers:

Risk distribution: Reinsurers help to spread the risk of major losses over several shoulders. In the event of disasters such as hurricanes or earthquakes, individual insurance companies could quickly go bankrupt without reinsurers.

Financial stability: They ensure that insurance companies remain solvent even in the event of extreme losses. This creates trust among customers and stabilizes the insurance market.

Protection against major losses: Natural disasters and other major events often cause losses in the billions. Reinsurers absorb some of these costs and prevent the entire sector from coming under pressure.

Contra reinsurers:

Additional costs: The premiums that insurers pay to reinsurers are often passed on to customers. This makes insurance more expensive without the customer benefiting directly.

Dependence: Insurance companies could rely too heavily on reinsurers and have less incentive to build up their own reserves for emergencies. This could weaken the financial strength of insurance companies in the long term.

Complexity: Reinsurance systems are complicated and increase the administrative burden. This could lead to inefficiencies and higher administrative costs.

What do you think? 😉

PS: Retrocessionaires then also take some of the risks away from reinsurers. 😉

Insurance sector likely to grow thanks to robust global economy

Short and sweet

The global insurance sector can expect good growth and higher profitability in 2024 and 2025, supported by a robust global economy and higher interest rates. Global gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Non-life insurance is expected to grow by 3.3% to USD 4.6 trillion in 2024 and by 2.6% in 2025. Life insurance will benefit from rising premium volumes and higher profitability, with premium growth of 2.9% to USD 3.0 trillion in 2024 and similar growth in 2025. Challenges remain due to inflation, extreme weather events and geopolitical uncertainties, among other things.

The global insurance sector can expect good growth and higher profitability in the current and coming year. This will be supported by a robust global economy and higher interest rates, according to a study by reinsurer Swiss Re.

Long and more detailed:

Despite geopolitical tensions and higher inflation, the global economy is proving "remarkably resilient", explained Swiss Re chief economist Jérôme Haegeli in the Swiss Re Institute's new "World Insurance Sigma" report. The robust global economy should increase demand for insurance.

According to Swiss Re estimates, global gross domestic product will grow by 2.7 percent in the current year and by 2.8 percent in 2025. Even if the return to lower inflation rates is not proceeding smoothly, monetary conditions have begun to ease worldwide: In September, the US Federal Reserve is expected to make its first cut in key interest rates.

Due to inflation and the resulting increase in claims costs, the trend towards higher prices in non-life insurance is likely to continue. According to forecasts, the premium volume in non-life insurance will grow by 3.3% to 4.6 trillion dollars in 2024, with growth of 2.6% expected in 2025.

In the life insurance sector, the positive interest rates are having a doubly positive effect: Institutions can expect an increase in premium volume and higher profitability. Premiums are forecast to rise by 2.9% to 3.0 trillion dollars, with similar growth expected in 2025 (+2.7%). The operating result is expected to increase by 15 percent, particularly in the largest markets.

The insurance industry continues to face major challenges, explained Kera McDonald, Chief Underwriting Officer of the Swiss Re Corporate Solutions division: these include severe weather events, which have increased significantly in recent years. The annual standard of insured losses is now over 100 billion dollars, with a growth rate of 5 to 7 percent per year.

Inflation is also leading to rising claims. Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties are also influencing insurers' business. Since 2020, insurance claims from strikes, riots and civil unrest have increased by a factor of 30, according to McDonald. Rapid technological change, for example in the field of artificial intelligence, poses additional risks.

The largest reinsurers:

$MUV2 (-0,1%)

$SREN (-0,03%)

$HNR1 (-0,08%)

Happy Investing

GG

Sources:

awp

McKinsey Global Insurance Report 2023 | McKinsey (2023 - for context)

Top 50 Global Reinsurance Groups - Reinsurance News

It could be a favorable time to take advantage of the gains from $SREN (-0,03%) and invest in $ALV (-0,03%) to invest

Good morning everyone,

does anyone have an explanation why the prices of getquin sometimes deviate from the stock market? e.g. $SREN (-0,03%)

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗞𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗚𝗲𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘇𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻 / 𝗦𝗔𝗣 𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝘁 𝗦𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲 / 𝗕𝗲𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗰𝗵𝘄𝗮𝗰𝗵

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, among others, BASF ($BAS (-0,06%)) , Swiss Re AG ($SREN (-0,03%)) and Energy Inc ($NRG (+0,12%)) present their quarterly figures.

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, among others, Union Pacific ($UNP (+0,31%)), Estee Lauder Companies Inc ($EL (+0,42%)) and Mowi ASA ($MOWI (-0,17%)) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

SAP ($SAP (+0,18%)) - German software giant SAP announces a special dividend of 0.50 cents to mark the company's 50th anniversary. The total dividend payout this year is €2.45 per share. "Our strategy of accelerating our transition to the cloud business is paying off. We have had an outstanding year with strong results and we want our shareholders to share in this success with an increased dividend," said CFO Luka Mucic.

Beyond Meat ($BYND (+1,84%)) - In the fourth quarter of 2021, Beyond Meat widened its year-over-year loss. After a loss of $0.400 per share a year ago, the loss for the quarter was $1.27 per share. Analysts had previously expected EPS of -$0.700. On the revenue side, things were also worse, with revenue at $100.7 million, down from $101.9 million in the same period a year ago. Beyond Meat thus underperformed analysts' estimates, which had amounted to $101.0 million in advance.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022, Brazil initiated a framework to legalize cryptocurrencies in the local market. The initiative could be a milestone for the growth and development of digital cryptocurrencies in Brazil.

The Brazilian Senate's Economic Committee jointly approved a bill to regulate cryptocurrencies, paving the way for a vote in the Senate and subsequent forwarding for further consideration. If the National Congress approves the bill, it will eventually be sent to President Jair Bolsonaro for approval.

Assuming the bill is accepted, it will become part of law. In this case, Brazil will become the first major Latin American country to have clear rules and regulations for investing in digital cryptocurrencies.

Switzerland has a lot to offer.