Interview with Clemens Fuest - Germany on the brink? Ifo President finds: "Elon Musk is talking nonsense"

The German economy is stagnating and economic output is not rising above the 2019 level. That is the bitter outcome of a lost half-decade, as Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo Institute, makes clear in an interview with the FAZ.

"We have real problems," says Fuest, adding that it is not just external circumstances that are weighing on Germany's economy, but also home-grown problems. In this tense economic environment, Fuest voices fierce criticism of Elon Muskthe CEO of Tesla. Musk, known for his sometimes controversial statements and visions, hatte zuletzt Vorschläge gemacht which Fuest describes as "gross nonsense". These proposals relate in particular to Musk's ideas on the industry of the future.

"Germany is not on the brink"

Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Germany must fundamentally change its industrial policy in order to remain competitive. Fuest replied: "Germany is not on the brink, wie er behauptet . Our country is stuck in stagnation, that's something completely different."

Fuest emphasizes in the interview that German economic policy should aim to further promote its strengths. "Depending on the count, there are between 1,000 and 1,500 companies in Germany that are world market leaders in a niche. No other country has this in this form. And that leads to the export strength that continues to characterize Germany."

The Ifo Director calls for political decision-makers in Germany and Europe to rethink and adapt their strategies. "The approach of relying heavily on subsidies to transform the economy" was wrong, he emphasizes. The "traffic light coalition has also failed to find an answer to the decline in investment in companies and housing construction".

"Depending on the count, there are between 1,000 and 1,500 companies in Germany that are world market leaders in a niche. No other country has this in this form. And that leads to the export strength that continues to characterize Germany."

My dears, which world market leaders can you think of here? And which German niche companies are you counting on?

$SIE (-0,03%)
$MUM (+0,65%)
$SAP (-0,32%)
$AIXA (-0,47%)
$ADS (-0,1%)
$RR. (+0,48%)
$FRE (+1,27%)

Interview mit Clemens Fuest - Deutschland am Abgrund? Ifo-Präsident findet: „Elon Musk redet groben Unfug“

How should I start? My portfolio has increased by almost 3.75 times, even though I've been struggling with a few problems since June and can hardly save any more.

My BAföG has not yet been approved, which is why I have to be financially cautious and hope that I can make ends meet with my remaining funds.

The year has been exciting - I can't guarantee you whether the figures here are accurate, and to be honest I don't think they are, because so far they've almost always been wrong. Nevertheless, it gives you a good insight into my portfolio.

And my goals for 2025? Honestly, I have no idea! I'll have to see how my studies and my life as a whole are going before I can set any concrete goals, but I'll have some fun: Here are my top and flop 5 that I still hold.

$SOFI (+0,06%)
$BTC (-2,14%)
$FWONA
$D05 (-0,67%)
$FTNT (+0,05%)

$AIXA (-0,47%)
$EVT (-1,09%)
$AFX (-1,81%)
$MRNA (+0,4%)
$CELH

I wish you all a happy new year!

year!

Hello everyone, the tops and flops at the end of the year.

With Aixtron $AIXA (-0,47%) I myself had a big flop in my portfolio. But for 2025 I am quite reliable with Aixtron.

AppLovin $APP (-0,17%) and Nvidia $NVDA (+0,66%) were then my top stocks.

Which stocks were top and flop for you?

Which flop stocks are you confident about in the new year?

Will the top stocks continue to be top?

$AIXA (-0,47%)

I took a look at the weekly and daily chart of the Aixtron share. After the earnings on February 29, the share price collapsed and made one low after another. There was hardly any interest from market participants in the share and important support areas were broken, but we are now in an interesting area. If the share price closes above this area, I would like to see a confirmation, then the path to around €22 would be clear in my view. Of course, the question now is what the market participants will do and what the fundamental situation of the company is. Otherwise, the downward trend could continue. The next support level is around €8.50

$AIXA (-0,47%)

With a performance of +5.96%, the AIXTRON share has recorded significant gains so far this trading day, thus positively surprising investors.

Despite today's share price increase, AIXTRON shareholders have suffered losses of -9.44% in the last three months.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18845575-beachtet-aixtron-aktie-rampenlicht-23-12-2024

Analyst updates, 16.12.

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• JEFFERIES raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 235 to USD 275. Buy. $AMZN (+0,1%)
• CITIGROUP raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 475 to EUR 522. Neutral. $MUV2 (-2,13%)
• BERENBERG raises the price target for RHEINMETALL from EUR 655 to EUR 750. Buy. $RHM (-0,53%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 36 to EUR 37. Hold. $PAH3 (-1,29%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for HENSOLDT from EUR 40 to EUR 42. Buy. $HAG (-0,66%)
• JEFFERIES raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 32. Buy. $SHEL (+0,89%)

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• BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 46 to EUR 42. Market Perform. $PAH3 (-1,29%)
• HSBC downgrades SAP to Hold. Target price EUR 260. $SAP (-0,32%)
• LOOP CAPITAL downgrades NETFLIX to Hold. Target price 950 USD. $NFLX (-0,29%)
• EXANE BNP lowers the price target for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 57 to EUR 54. Underperform. $MBG (-0,41%)
• JEFFERIES downgrades FORD from Hold to Underperform and lowers target price from USD 12 to USD 9. $F (+0,18%)
• CITIGROUP lowers the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 5.80 to EUR 5.50. Buy. $TKA (+0,22%)
• STIFEL lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 20 to EUR 18. Hold. $AIXA (-0,47%)
• PARETO downgrades TRATON to Hold. Target price EUR 32.50. $8TRA (+0%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the target price for KINGFISHER from GBP 3.50 to GBP 3.40. Buy. $KGF (-3,14%)
• METZLER lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 104 to EUR 90. Buy. $AFX (-1,81%)
• BERENBERG lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 32 to EUR 28. Hold. $1SXP (+2,18%)
• CITIGROUP downgrades 1&1 to Neutral. Target price EUR 15. $1U1 (+0,67%)

Flop share from 2024 that could really take off in 2025.

Turnaround opportunity in the chip industry: Aixtron $AIXA (-0,47%)

We start with the German semiconductor supplier Aixtron (WKN: A0WMPJ). In recent years, the company's business and share price have developed rapidly. Driven by high demand for the company's highly complex systems, which are used to apply ultra-thin layers of atoms to semiconductor wafers, sales rose by an average of 25% p.a. between 2019 and 2023. The average growth rate for EBIT was even 42%! The share price rose by a whopping 351% from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023

This has come to an end in the current year. The share price has plummeted by 61% since the start of the year and things are no longer going so well operationally either. In the first nine months of 2024, turnover fell by 2% and earnings per share fell by 36%. Revenue is set to stagnate for the entire 2024 financial year and the management still sees no improvement in sight in 2025. What's going on here?

The main reason for the weak operating performance is likely to be the current market environment. The overall economic situation is currently also causing weak business for other semiconductor companies outside of the AI hype, such as Infineon. This is unlikely to remain the case forever. In the long term, demand for chips will increase - in the case of Aixtron, for example, to supply data centers with energy-saving power or to build modern charging infrastructure for e-cars. I am therefore betting that the share price could rise sharply again in the course of 2025. The P/E ratio of 11 (based on 2023 earnings) looks favorable.

Analyst updates, 02.12.24:

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- EXANE BNP upgrades NOVO NORDISK to Outperform. Target price DKK 930. $NOVO B

- HSBC upgrades LVMH to Buy. Target price EUR 727. $MC (+1,24%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises target price for MTU from EUR 278 to EUR 297. Hold. $MTX (-0,25%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for VISA from USD 324 to USD 347. Buy $V (+0,15%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades BASF from Hold to Buy and raises price target from EUR 50 to EUR 55. $BAS (-0,24%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades BURBERRY from Hold to Buy and raises target price from GBP 8.60 to GBP 11.80. $BRBY (-1,13%)

- GOLDMAN raises the target price for AROUNDTOWN from EUR 2.90 to EUR 3.70. Buy. $AT1 (+1,52%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades TOAST from Buy to Neutral and raises target price from USD 34 to USD 45. $TOST (+0,84%)

- HSBC upgrades HERMES to Buy. Target price 2500 EUR. $RMS (-0,78%)

- MORGAN STANLEY upgrades ZEBRA TECH to Equal-Weight. Target price 400 USD. $ZBRA (-0,08%)

- JPMORGAN upgrades AIR LIQUIDE from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 161 to EUR 195. $AI (+0,11%)

- JPMORGAN raises target price for PUMA SE from EUR 44 to EUR 47. Neutral. $PUM (+1,19%)

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- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for MASTERCARD from USD 563 to USD 557. Buy. $MA (+0,68%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 26 to EUR 24. Buy. $AIXA (-0,47%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for WACKER NEUSON from EUR 14.50 to EUR 14. Hold. $WAC (-0,2%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH downgrades K+S from Hold to Sell and lowers target price from EUR 9.75 to EUR 9.50. $SDF (-0,53%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for BP from GBP 4.70 to GBP 4.40. Hold. $BP. (+0,58%)

- RBC downgrades IBERDROLA from Outperform to Sector-Perform. Target price EUR 14 $IBE (+0,69%)

- RBC lowers the price target for RWE from EUR 52.50 to EUR 45.50. Outperform. $RWE (-1,32%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the target price for ORSTED from DKK 460 to DKK 430. Neutral. $ORSTED (-0,7%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ADIDAS from EUR 275 to EUR 266. Overweight. $ADS (-0,1%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 685 to EUR 650. Neutral. $MC (+1,24%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HUGO BOSS from EUR 43 to EUR 42. Neutral. $BOSS (-1,67%)

Analyst updates, 04.11.

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- BERENBERG raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 31.50. Buy. | $SHEL (+0,89%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for MTU from EUR 270 to EUR 350. Buy. | $MTX (-0,25%)

- BRYAN GARNIER raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 8.50 to EUR 10. Neutral. | $HFG (+2,32%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 84 to EUR 92. Buy. | $G24 (+0,29%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SANTANDER from EUR 5.75 to EUR 5.80. Buy. | $SAN (+0%)

- RBC raises the target price for NEXT PLC from GBP 105 to GBP 108. Sector Perform. | $NXT

- UBS raises the price target for CHEVRON from USD 192 to USD 194. Buy. | $CVX (+0,31%)

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- UBS lowers the price target for BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY from USD 806.724 to USD 796.021. Buy. | $BRK.B (+0,23%)

- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for STMICRO from EUR 36 to EUR 30. Buy. | $STMPA (-0,33%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ASM INTERNATIONAL from EUR 806 to EUR 716. Overweight. | $ASM (-0,74%)

- RBC downgrades CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from Outperform to Sector-Perform and lowers target price from EUR 85 to EUR 70. | $AFX (-1,81%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KION from EUR 65 to EUR 58. Buy. | $KGX (-1,56%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades JENOPTIK from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from EUR 32 to EUR 30. | $JEN (-1,6%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 22 to EUR 21. Outperform. | $AIXA (-0,47%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for FIELMANN from EUR 45.70 to EUR 44.60. Neutral. | $FIE (+0%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from 65.50 EUR to 63.60 EUR. Sell. | $KBX (+0,95%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades STANDARD CHARTERED to Neutral. Target price GBP 9.37. | $STAN (+0,6%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for GENERALI from EUR 31.50 to EUR 30.50. Buy. | $G (+0,37%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for PHILIPS from EUR 35 to EUR 32. Buy. | $PHIA (+1,34%)

Aixtron Q32024 $AIXA (-0,47%)

Financial performance

• Order intakeOrder intake amounted to € 439.5 million in the first nine months of 2024, a slight increase compared to € 436.2 million in the same period of 2023. In the third quarter of 2024, incoming orders increased significantly by 21% year-on-year to € 143.5 million.
• TurnoverSales for the first nine months of 2024 amounted to € 406.4 million, a decrease of 2% compared to € 415.7 million in 2023. In the third quarter of 2024, turnover amounted to € 156.3 million, 5% lower than in the third quarter of 2023.

Balance sheet overview

• Total assetsAs at September 30, 2024, total assets amounted to € 1,002.2 million, down slightly compared to € 1,029.9 million at the end of 2023.
• EquityEquity increased to € 789.9 million compared to € 777.6 million at the end of 2023, maintaining a solid equity ratio of 79%.

Details of the income statement

• Gross profitGross profit for the first nine months of 2024 amounted to € 160.0 million, a decrease of 12% compared to € 180.8 million in 2023. The gross margin fell by 4 percentage points to 39%.
• EBITEBIT for the first nine months of 2024 amounted to € 60.3 million, a decrease of 35% compared to € 93.4 million in 2023. The EBIT margin fell by 7 percentage points to 15%.

Cash flow overview

• Operating cash flowImproved significantly to € 28.2 million in the first nine months of 2024 compared to € -65.6 million in the same period of 2023.
• Free cash flow: Despite the improvement in operating cash flow, free cash flow remains negative at € -58.0 million due to high capital expenditure

Key figures and profitability ratios

• Gross marginGross margin was 39% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to 43% in 2023.
• EBIT marginThe EBIT margin amounted to 15% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to 22% in 2023.

Segment information

• Sales by regionAsia contributed € 250.3 million, Europe € 113.6 million and the Americas € 42.6 million to total sales in the first nine months of 2024.
• Equipment vs. after-sales: The sale of equipment accounted for 80% of revenue, while after-sales services contributed 20%.

Competitive position

AIXTRON continues to lead in SiC and GaN technologies and has made significant progress in 300 mm GaN platforms. This positions the company as a leader in terms of performance and cost per wafer.

Forecasts and comments from management

• Forecast for the 2024 financial yearSales are expected to be between € 620 million and € 660 million, with a gross margin of 43% to 45% and an EBIT margin of 22% to 25%.
• Outlook for 2025: Sales could be at the level of 2024 or slightly lower, as demand in the end markets is expected to be weaker

Risks and opportunities

There were no significant changes in risks and opportunities compared to the 2023 Annual Report. The company continues to focus on sustainability and ESG initiatives.

Summary of the results

AIXTRON's financial performance in the first nine months of 2024 shows a decline in revenues and profitability compared to the previous year, mainly due to a lower gross and EBIT margin. Nevertheless, the Company has made significant progress in operating cash flow, indicating improved operational efficiency. The strategic focus on SiC and GaN technologies positions AIXTRON well for future growth, although market demand remains uncertain. The strong equity base and continued investment in innovation provide a robust foundation to meet future challenges.

Positive aspects

• Strong equity positionAIXTRON's equity increased to € 789.9 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to € 777.6 million at the end of 2023, with a solid equity ratio of 79%. This demonstrates a strong financial foundation and stability.
• Improved operating cash flowOperating cash flow improved significantly to € 28.2 million in the first nine months of 2024, compared to € -65.6 million in the same period of 2023. This improvement reflects increased operational efficiency and better cash flow management.
• Leadership position in SiC and GaN technologiesAIXTRON remains a leader in SiC and GaN technologies and has made progress in 300mm GaN platforms. This positions the company as a leader in performance and cost per wafer.
• Sales growth in AsiaSales in Asia increased significantly to € 250.3 million in the first nine months of 2024, compared to € 181.3 million in the same period of 2023, demonstrating high demand and a strong market presence in the region.
• Strategic investmentsThe company is making strategic investments in its innovation center and expanding production capacity in Italy, which should promote future growth and innovation.

Negative aspects

• Decline in sales and profitability: Sales in the first nine months of 2024 decreased by 2% to € 406.4 million and the EBIT margin fell by 7 percentage points to 15%, indicating a decline in profitability.
• Decreased gross marginGross margin decreased to 39% compared to 2023 (from 43% in the previous year), mainly due to a change in the product mix.
• Negative free cash flowDespite the improvements in operating cash flow, free cash flow remained negative at € -58.0 million due to high capital expenditure, which could put pressure on liquidity.
• Decline in sales in Europe and America: Sales in Europe and the Americas declined significantly, with a drop of 18% in Europe and 55% in the Americas, indicating challenges in these markets.
• Increased R&D costsResearch and development expenses increased by 15% to € 68.7 million in the first nine months of 2024. While this is an indication of investment in future growth, it has also contributed to the decline in net profitability.