Alfen

So dear friends...

Waiting for the maturity date of my 10y Treasury bond, interest payment will be taken along and, a little too early in the short term, but in the longer term shifted into 20+ Treasury at approx. 5 % p.a.. $IBTL (+0,62%) .

Furthermore, I finally got rid of my Global Clean Energy, albeit with a slight minus, but I see the cost pressure there immensely, and I also didn't like the weighting of the ETF "anymore".

With my savings rates, I'm trying to underperform Apple a little to get away from the almost 4 percent portfolio weighting. Apple is too annoying for me, at least in terms of the iPhone. Year after year, less and less innovation regarding smartphones, now under time pressure only a "half-finished" cell phone released in Germany.

On the other hand, I am quite happy with my portfolio.

I will continue to invest in real estate shares in the future, $DHL (-0,99%) I would like to push them to 1.5 %. I see an anti-cyclical opportunity here, the key figures seem to be okay. And the economy will also enjoy an upswing again at some point. Big player, albeit boring for some. But would like to upgrade it as a small individual share and hold it for the long term...dividend tastes good.

$PATH (-0,6%) and $ALFEN (-3,62%) will still think about a plan to sell, or one day one share will give way for the other.

We don't need to discuss Freyr and Halo, everyone starts at some point and unfortunately they are no longer tradable on L&S.

I am open to constructive criticism.

Have a nice evening and good luck 😅😅

--GER English version Below

Dear community, a question for you: Leave it or Keep it?

I started investing (apart from small amounts of crypto in 2021) towards the end of 2023. I bought various ETFs, the biggest one is now $VWRL (+0,84%) and also linked to savings plans.

I intend to keep it the strongest in my portfolio, along with and $IBGX (+0,15%) . Together with $VWRL (+0,84%) I also have a savings plan in a relatively well performing active fund on India Equity Large Cap. I intend to keep these two/three funds as the main exposure in my portfolio.

Some time ago, I shared the composition of my portfolio and sought feedback. The problem was that I own other small ETFs (e.g. $WFIN (+0,67%) , $WENS (+0,31%) etc...with others worth less than 1500 euros).

Now the question is: should I keep them? If so, until when? I have no intention to put more money in them as I want to have 2 max 3 reference ETFs diversified (as much as it is possible). Hence my intention to restructure a little.

Also, I'm not sure if I should reduce my exposure to the individual stocks. I am now focusing -as you see- on 6 stocks, 5 of them relatively growth oriented and 1 more -allow me- a gamble. These si$NVDA (+0,4%)
$LLY (+3,39%)
$LMT (+0,52%)
$ALV (+0,6%)
$XOM (-0,25%)
$ALFEN (-3,62%) .

Am I missing something here? Or is the diversification good enough?

Time horizon 10-15 years before I start selling anything.

---ENG

Dear community, a question for you: Leave it or Keep it?

I started investing (besides small amounts of Crypto in 2021) around the end of 2023. I bought different ETFs now the biggest being $VWRL (+0,84%) and with saving plans attached too.

I have the intention to keep it the strongest in my portfolio, together with $IUIT (+0,17%) and $IBGX (+0,15%) . Together with $VWRL (+0,84%) I also have a saving plan in a relatively well performing active fund on India Equity large cap. I plan to keep these two/three as the major exposure in my portfolio.

I shared the portfolio composition sometime ago, looking for feedback. The issue highlighted was that I own other small chunks of ETFs (i.e $WFIN (+0,67%) , $WENS (+0,31%) etc...With others with amount less than 1500 euros).

Now the question is: Shall I keep them? If yes until when? I have no intention to put more money into those, as I would lie to have 2 max 3 reference ETF diversified (to the extent is possible). Thus my intention to restructure a bit.

Also, I am unsure whether to decrease my exposure in the individual stocks. Now -as you can see- I am focusing on 6 stocks, 5 of them relatively growth oriented, and 1 more -allow me- a gamble. These are $NVDA (+0,4%)
$LLY (+3,39%)
$LMT (+0,52%)
$ALV (+0,6%)
$XOM (-0,25%)
$ALFEN (-3,62%) .

Am I missing something here? Or is the diversification good enough.

Time horizon 10-15 year before I start selling anything.

Tip of the day!

Topic electromobility in Germany 🇩🇪

$ALFEN (-3,62%)

At Tuesday's meeting of the EU Parliament, it was agreed that motorists should be able to find a charging station at least every 60 kilometers within the main European transport axes. In addition, hydrogen refueling stations are to be built every 200 kilometers.

Since Compleo has encountered massive difficulties in Germany with regard to credits

I have been betting more and more on Alfen.

News fit and the consolidation seems to be completed.

In addition, they are already earning money and will certainly continue to grow solidly🤩.

Am already + 4 percent in plus, definitely continue to expand with further strength.

General data

The Dutch achieved revenue growth of 76 percent to 440 million euros with an EBITDA margin of 18 percent compared to 14.8 percent in 2021. For 2023, the company forecasts revenues of 540- 600 million euros.

Source

https://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/aktien/autofahrer-aufgepasst-strom-ladesaeulen-alle-60-km-diese-aktien-sollten-profitieren-20329253.html

Partial sale / share too hot for me

---𝐀𝐤𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐯𝐨𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐮𝐧𝐠---

Alfen N.V.

NL0012817175

Alfen N.V. is at the heart of the energy transition with its solutions. With transformers, energy storage, charging stations for electric cars and a wide range of other products and services, Alfen is the center and link in the power grid. With a wide range of products developed in-house and extensive experience as a system integrator, Alfen is working on the power grid of the future: reliable, sustainable and innovative [1]. Alfen is the market leader in the Netherlands in these areas. However, Alfen would like to continue to conquer the European market on this basis. Significant subsidiaries are located in the Netherlands, Finland and Belgium, with 61% of sales still generated directly from projects in the Netherlands, 38% in the EU and a marginal share outside the EU [2].

Revenue segments [2]:

Smart grid solutions (intelligent power grids): 52% of revenue.

Energy storage systems: 7% of sales

EV charging equipment (EV charging stations): 41% of sales

Key figures:

-KGV 2021: 89.1 [3]

-KGV 2022e: 61.3 [3]

-KGV 2023e: 43.0 [3]

-PEG 2022e (P/E/growth rate): 61.3/30%= 2.04 (rule of thumb: < 1 = very favorable)

-PEG 2023e: 43.0/30% = 1.43

-Goodwill: 0.13% of equity; 0.6% of 2021 earnings [2].

Goodwill contribution: https://app.getquin.com/activity/ymidZwhlTk

-Sales growth*: 2020 to 2021: 32% ; 2021 to 2022: 33.2%; 2022 to 2023: 37,88%

-EBIT growth*: 2020 to 2021 61%; 2021 to 2022: 33% ; 2022 to 2023: 41,8%

*10-year view not possible as data only available from 2015 (2015 sales €50 million). Due to industry and history, 10-year view not used. Annual report confirms the assumption of 30%.

Market Averages (EU) [5]:

-Aver. P/E Power: 16.99

-Aver. PEG Power: 1.71

-Aver. KGV Electronics (General): 30.73

-Aver. PEG Electronics (General): 0.95

Present Value Calculation = 89,46 € -->created by yourself

-Parameters/Data: G 2021; Required Return 10%, Growth 25% (conservative)

Share price as of 23.03.2022: € 84.32

Rubric - What would Buffet say (data from Annual Report 2021 [2]):

Criteria to be read in detail: https://app.getquin.com/activity/XcuRrJwmyP

Income Statement:

-Research and development: n/a (no data evident from Income Statement).

-Selling, general and administrative expenses: 21.48% of sales -->good!

-Gross margin: 35.97% -->good, tendency increasing! (Buffet's target: at least 40%)

-Net margin: 8.59% in 2021 (9.1% in 2022e) -->ok! (Buffet's target: >20%)

-Interest expense: 3.6% of operating profit-->very good! (Buffet's target: <15%)

Balance Sheet:

-Treasury shares: no buybacks planned!

-Debt < 4xEBIT: Verschuldung 3,7 --> ok!

Cash Flow Statement:

Capital Expenditures:

2021: 54% of net profit (Buffet's target: <50%)

2020: 80,6% des Reingewinns

2019: 118,9 % des Reingewinns

-->development ok, considering the industry, which has high investment needs. To this end, the cash position will be continuously expanded (2019: 134k; 2020: 52m; 2021: 47.2m).

Key Note:

For asset-intensive and project-driven companies, I like to look at the development of inventories, in conjunction with sales. It is good to see here that inventories are continuously growing in line with sales. This is also a sign that the order situation is good and that there are no particularly "slow-moving items" that will have to be written off at some point to reduce profits: The inventory turnover rate (sales/average inventory level) also indicates how often the company "turns over" its inventories within a year, i.e. how often the inventory is "emptied" in a year (even if this happens in practice on a rolling basis and the inventory is never completely empty - hopefully).

Inventory turnover rate 2021: 8.11 (249/30.7)

Inventory turnover 2020: 1.16 (19.9/17.15)

Inventory turnover rate 2019: 1.2 (14.4/ 11.95)

Sales 2021: 249 million

Sales 2020: 189 million

Sales 2019: 143 million

Inventories 2021: 41.5 million

Inventories 2020: 19.9 million

Inventories 2019: 14.4 million

Inventories 2018: 9.5 Mio

Burggraben:

Alfen is in a growing market with many opportunities. However, I do not see a concrete competitive advantage. However, with their charging stations and energy storage systems, the order books will certainly not be empty. Alfen wants to unify its solutions and systems to serve the entire supply chain (smart grids, electricity storage, charging stations). This strategy definitely makes them competitive. To that end, I definitely like the key figures.

Peer Group/Competition:

Siemens Energy

-KGV: negative (2021), 2022e: 154; 2023e: 21.4

-PEG 2022: 154/30 = 5.13; 2023: 0.71

Growth assumption analogous to Alfen. However, existing data could indicate more like 20-30%.

https://www.siemens-energy.com/de/de.html

Blink Charging

Profit zone hardly predictable. Growth given, however, still long way to go! Company is still at the beginning. Sales at just under 21 million in 2021!

https://blinkcharging.com/

Wallbox NV

No profit yet. Profit probably not until 2024/25, but very difficult to forecast. Growth, however, given, analogous to Alfen.

https://wallbox.com/de_de/ueber-uns/vi-er-wallbox

Non-public competition:

Nexgrid

Swissgrid

VTTI

Company classification according to Peter Lynch [4]:

Fast Grower (growth rate &gt;20% )

Conclusion:

I find Alfen extremely exciting. The market allows for a lot of imagination. They have been in a major sideways chart move since January 2021. My hope is that they will serve this again and return in the €60-70 range. Of course, you can not be sure. Possibly there is also a good resistance at about 80€. The e-mobility company would do very well in my portfolio, since I do not really serve this sector yet. One thing to keep in mind, however, is the competition. In addition to the aforementioned peer group, I also see classic car manufacturers, which of course also include Tesla or VW, as competitors to a certain extent, even if not in all segments of Alfen.

As usual, you can also find my collected analyses under the following link:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/YyIXcpDduz?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

As always, no investment advice!

#theaccountant

#stocks

#aktienanalyse

Sources:

[1] https://alfen.com/de/ueber-alfen

[2] https://alfen.com/sites/default/files/media/documents/Alfen%20Annual%20Report%202021.pdf

[3] https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/ALFEN-N-V-42452474/fundamentals/

[4] https://diyinvestor.de/peter-lynch-6-kategorien-fuer-die-einordnung-von-unternehmen/

[5] https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html

Graphs Source:

Earnings trend: https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/ALFEN-N-V-42452474/fundamentals/

2021 at a glance: https://alfen.com/sites/default/files/media/documents/Alfen%20Annual%20Report%202021.pdf

Growing Businesses Overview: https://alfen.com/sites/default/files/media/documents/Alfen%20Annual%20Report%202021.pdf

Company homepage:

https://alfen.com/de

Algae has failed at the 100€. But I think that is only a question of the next or übernåchsten attempt.

Will realize a partial profit and I do not think the course again 50% runs into the red. Max to 200 day line (rather Max 80€ I think. Or what is your opinion?

Good morning my Bearler,

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today there is again a small insight into my tops and flops in the depot. I think I can be satisfied with the month. Overall, it went with my shares and ETFs in the 1.15% up. I have been able to invest again 400 €. 💪

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In the month I sold a small part of my Alfen shares. In the depot, the growth had taken a very large share in the depot. These I have reallocated to Tencent. It remains exciting. 😅

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Be proud, be loud, be a bear! 🐻

#proudtobeabear

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#bearstocks

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This post is for information purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation or advice.

Proximity to the AHT. Rebalance in the portfolio. Probably reallocated to Rio Tinto or Tencent. A new purchase at DropDown from Alfen is also possible. 😁👍