Since 2020, the number of shares has remained the same, which means that Alfen has not diluted its shareholders’ value.
At the current price, the Market Value is €252 million.
At the end of 2021 Alfen was worth €1,915 million, and at its peak in 2022 (with a share price of €120.8), it reached €2,626 million — more than ten times its current value.
I believe this company is well positioned to be worth more than it has been in the past, and therefore, from today’s depressed level, it could increase in value by more than 1,000%.
The stock entered the market at €10, rose to a peak above €120, and then returned to its base at €10.
In 2017, at the time of its IPO, Alfen’s annual sales were €73 million.
They then grew to a peak of €505 million in 2023.
Since then, there was a 3.4% decline in 2024, and for 2025 another drop of 4.5% is expected, to €466 million. Because of two years of small revenue declines, the share price collapsed by more than 90%.
Analysts following Alfen expect sales to return to growth in the coming years, although at a slow average annual pace of 6.3%.
I believe Alfen is well positioned to grow faster than analysts currently anticipate.
In recent years, Alfen has invested heavily in a new headquarters and factory, equipped with more than 6,000 solar panels, three substations produced by Alfen itself, and over 100 electric vehicle charging points (also made by Alfen).
The goal was both to achieve economies of scale and to showcase what the factories and companies of the future should look like.
The problem is that this large investment weakened the balance sheet and put Alfen in a delicate financial position, forcing it to negotiate covenants with its lending bank. Those reports spooked many investors, who feared the company might not be able to meet its obligations and could even face bankruptcy.
In 2018, the company’s financial debt stood at €20.1 million, while by December 31, 2024 it had risen to €51.5 million. Of that amount, €41.2 million relates to real estate leasing, the majority connected to the new factory in the Netherlands.
On the liquidity side, in 2018 Alfen had just €1 million in cash and equivalents, compared with €17.7 million at the end of 2024.
In other words, since 2018 net financial debt (including leases) rose from €19 million to €33.8 million — not particularly alarming for a company generating around €500 million in annual revenues.
In Q1 2025, the balance sheet situation does not appear to have worsened (free cash flow was a positive €0.2 million), and results for Q2 2025 will be released on August 20.
This situation once again shows that what matters most to investors are profits, not revenues.
In this case, profits have fallen back to the 2018 base level (the break-even point), and the share price has also returned to its base of around €10.
Analysts remain cautious and are projecting a slow recovery in profits over the next few years, but I see no reason why the recovery cannot be faster.
To secure new financing to replace the old facility, Alfen had to implement cost-cutting measures (and these measures have been reinforced recently), which should make the company more efficient over the medium and long term.
Demand for its products seems to have merely slowed for now, but in my view it will return strongly in 2026 and beyond.
Therefore, it would not surprise me if, after returning to break-even, Alfen could, perhaps by 2027 or 2028, report profits even higher than the €54 million achieved in 2022.
I have strong conviction that the energy transition, after a two- or three-year pause that is already passing, will continue its long-term upward trajectory.
The European Commission still requires that from 2035 onward, only electric cars may be sold in the European Union, and that transformation will demand many more substations, vastly more electric vehicle chargers, and significantly more energy storage batteries.
Do you own Alfen? What’s your opinion about this company?