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European punitive tariffs would not improve the situation. (Best regards to Donald)

$HOG (+6,41%)

Shares in Harley-Davidson came under pressure on Wednesday after weaker consumer confidence hit the US motorcycle manufacturer's sales.

When publishing its figures for the fourth quarter, the New York-listed company announced that sales had fallen by 35% to 688 million dollars, while operating losses had increased from 21 million dollars in the previous year to 193 million dollars.

The diluted loss per share amounted to USD 0.93, compared to earnings per share of USD 0.18 in the last three months of 2023.

Global motorcycle deliveries declined 53% to 14,000 units in the quarter and 17% to 148,862 units for the year.

Revenue for the year as a whole was 11% lower at USD 5.2 billion.

Jochen Zeitz, CEO, said: "In 2024, we saw our performance significantly impacted by the ongoing economic headwinds for consumer goods, including the high interest rate environment which is impacting consumer confidence."

For 2025, the company expects sales to be flat at best and 5% lower at worst. The operating margin is expected to be between 7% and 8%.

It also forecasts that the LiveWire electric motorcycle brand will deliver between 1,000 and 1,500 units and that the division's operating losses will amount to 70 to 80 million dollars.

Harley-Davidson sold 612 LiveWire motorcycles in 2024 and reduced its operating loss by 6% to 110 million dollars.

Harley-Davidson shares had lost 5% in pre-market trading by 14:00 GMT.

Zeitz said: "The industry has faced numerous challenges in recent years, which have had an impact at all levels. But we are confident that we are well positioned to benefit from any upturn in consumption."

https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-companies/sales-slide-at-harley-davidson-hitting-shares--18774778.html

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. However, it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (+3,89%) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (+3,63%) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (+0,31%) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (+0,86%) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (+2,96%) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (+1,12%) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (+1,39%) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (+2,94%) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (+3,07%) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (+1,25%) ) - (stoma care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (+1,08%) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-1,38%) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (+5,79%) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (+4,06%) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-0,6%) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-5,97%) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (-1,28%) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-0,12%) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-0,43%) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (+6,56%) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (+10,76%) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (+6,41%) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-3,5%) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (-3,57%) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (+3,58%) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-3,62%) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

First day of vacation, 32°C and a 30km walk towards Stuttgart. I was able to find over 35 stock companies along the route.

Highlight, $BTC (-3,76%) Bitcoin logo on the wheel arch of the Jeep.

In addition to the car brands, $MBG (+0,6%)
$DTG (-0,96%)
$VOW (+0,36%)
$BMW (+1,25%)
$VOLV B (-1,13%)
$TSLA (-3,55%)
$1211 (-4,33%)
$P911 (+0,35%)
$F (+0,38%)
$8058 (+2,06%) I was able to discover numerous other companies that were new to me.

New for me was $6971 (-2,07%) Kyocera, a manufacturer of electronic devices from Japan and $WLK (+6,26%) Westlake Chemical from the USA.

From Germany there were also $SIX2 (-1,38%) Sixt $DTE (+2,59%) Telekom $TUI1 (-2,14%) Tui $AGCO (+1,05%) (Fendt) $256940 Eberspächer (supplier to the automotive industry) $SIE (-3,62%) Siemens $EBK (-0,75%) ENBW $DHL (-1,25%) Post and $ALV (-0,36%) in the process.

Other companies:

$CAT (-4,9%) Caterpillar $HEIA (+1,82%) Heineken $HOG (+6,41%) Harley Davidson $PM (+1,85%) Philip Morris $NKE (+1,65%) Nike $AAPL (+1,43%) Apple $005930 Samsung $UPS (+1,88%) UPS $SHEL (+0,55%) Shell $V (+1,53%) Visa $MA (+1,93%) Mastercard $KER (-10,28%) Kering

$KO (+2,95%) Coca-Cola $QSR (+3,26%) Restaurant Brands (Burger King)

$O (+2,86%) Reality Income (leased to Decathlon)

Would you have recognized everything? It's interesting what you discover when you consciously look around.

Out of interest, please link if you post something similar 🫡 or use the #aktienmarsch