The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (-5,77%) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-5,39%) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (-5,55%) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-6,66%) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (-7,56%) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (-5,6%) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (-7,49%) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (-3,06%) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (-6,55%) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (-2,08%) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-2,35%) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-7,52%) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (-1,22%) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (-8,7%) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-4,14%) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-4,6%) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (-6,82%) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-4,34%) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (-4,58%) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-3,71%) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (+0,82%) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (-0,67%) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (+1,01%) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-5,19%) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (-6,27%) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-8,5%) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-7,45%) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

Earnings next week

$CCL (-4,58%)

$PAYX (-5,92%)

$NKE (+3,05%)

$LEVI (-3,27%)

03.07.2024 +++ Tesla no longer growing so strongly +++ Moderna to develop new vaccine +++ Eli Lilly receives approval for Alzheimer's drug +++ Purchasing Managers' Index in DE, IT, FR and UK today +++

$TSLA (-9,97%) Tesla's vehicle sales fell again in the second quarter in the face of increasing competition. The company reported sales of 443,956 vehicles worldwide, a decrease of 4.8 percent compared to the same quarter last year. According to Factset, analysts had expected Tesla to deliver only 436,000 units. The US company is no longer growing as fast as in previous years, which underlines the challenges facing the entire industry. Other carmakers have launched dozens of new electric models, but demand has fallen short of initial expectations - despite falling prices and a series of low-interest and leasing offers. CEO Elon Musk is facing his biggest test in years. The Tesla founder wants to spend more money on developing new and more affordable models, while also investing in costly new technologies amid a slowing market for electric cars.

The pharmaceutical manufacturer Moderna $MRNA (-1,33%) is to develop an mRNA-based vaccine against avian flu for humans. The company has announced that it has been awarded 176 million US dollars by the government. The contract follows an unprecedented outbreak of avian flu in US livestock. So far, 137 dairy herds in a dozen states are known to be infected. Only three known cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus have been reported in the US since the outbreak. However, the authorities are monitoring the situation very closely. Scientists fear a potential pandemic threat. The US government, in collaboration with GSK, Sanofi and CSL Sequirus, has developed its own vaccines that could be used in the event of an H5N1 outbreak. However, production capacity is limited. Moderna is developing a pandemic influenza vaccine candidate called mRNA-1018 and began trials last year. Initial results are expected this year.

Eli Lilly $LLY (-7,56%) has received US approval for its Alzheimer's drug Kisunla, which will accelerate change in the treatment of this dementia. Kisunla is administered monthly and costs about $12,522 for six months of treatment, $32,000 for 12 months and $48,696 for 18 months. Some patients diagnosed with the disease have taken a pill to alleviate their symptoms. Others ended up in institutions that took care of them once they could no longer look after themselves. With the launch of drugs like Eli Lilly's Kisunla, Alzheimer's treatment promises to slow cognitive decline, albeit modestly.

More company news:

The shares of Tesla $TSLA (-9,97%) fell 1.6% after sales of electric vehicles manufactured in China fell 24.2% year-on-year in June, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed on Tuesday.

Paramount Global $PARA (-4,22%) shares rose 3.1% after the New York Times reported that billionaire Barry Diller is considering a takeover bid for the company after the studio he used to run backed out of a merger with Skydance Media.

The shares of Boeing $BA (-8,12%) fell 0.4% after the Associated Press reported that the U.S. Justice Department is waiting for the planemaker to accept an agreement to settle fraud allegations related to two fatal crashes of its 737 Max planes.

The shares of Carnival $CCL (-4,58%) fell 1.1% and Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH) shares fell 1.2% as Hurricane Beryl made its way through the Caribbean, potentially impacting cruise operations.

Shares of Polestar $PSNY fell 5% after the electric vehicle maker announced a first-quarter operating loss, adding that it will have to take steps to offset steep EU and U.S. import tariffs on its Chinese-made electric cars.

The shares of Pure Storage $PSTG (-9,3%) fell 5% after UBS downgraded the company, which develops all-flash data storage hardware and software products, to "sell" from "neutral," citing concerns about slowing growth, declining market share and an overvalued share price.

CrowdStrike $CRWD (-5,76%) fell 2.5% after Piper Sandler downgraded its stance on the cybersecurity company to "neutral" from "overweight", citing valuation concerns.

Incyte $INCY (+0,8%) fell 3.1% after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the drugmaker to "underperform" from "market perform", citing concerns that revenue from its key eczema cream Opzelura was likely to be "challenged".

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Shortened trading hours US bond market (until 8 pm), US stock market (until 7 pm)

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Bank of Nova Scotia CAD 1.06

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Grenke new business 2Q

10:00 Voestalpine AGM

11:00 Krones AG Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 09:45 IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing June FORECAST: 53.7 previous: 54.2
• 09:50 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSE: 48.8 1st release: 48.8 previous: 49.3 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) FORECAST: 48.2 1st release: 48.2 previous: 48.9
• 09:55 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSE: 53.5 1st release: 53.5 previous: 54.2 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 50.6 1st release: 50.6 previous: 52.4
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing euro area (2nd release) June PROGNOSE: 52.6 1st release: 52.6 previous: 53.2 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 50.8 1st release: 50.8 previous: 52.2
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) June OUTLOOK: 51.2 1st release: 51.2 previous: 52.9
• 11:00 EU: Producer Prices May Eurozone Forecast: +0.1% yoy/-4.0% yoy Previous: -1.0% yoy/-5.7% yoy
• 14:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report June Private Sector Employment PROGNOSIS: +160,000 jobs previously: +152,000 jobs
• 14:30 US: Initial Jobless Claims (week) FORECAST: 233,000 Previous: 233,000
• 14:30 US: Trade Balance May FORECAST: -76.30 bn USD previously: -74.56 bn USD
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Services (2nd release) June Forecast: 55.1 1st release: 55.1 Previous: 54.8
• 16:00 US: Industrial New Orders May PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy
• 16:00 US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index June FORECAST: 52.8 points previous: 53.8 points
• 16:30 US: EIA oil report (week)
• 19:00 US: US stock market closes (shortened trading session)
• 20:00 US: Minutes of the FOMC meeting June 11/12
• 20:00 US: US bond market closes (abbreviated trading)

What the week brings:

Monday:

• Speech by Mary C. DalyPresident of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Tuesday:

• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April)
• Consumer Confidence (June)
• Speeches by Michelle Bowman and Lisa D. CookGovernors of the Federal Reserve
• Quarterly reports from FedEx Corp ($FDX) (-2,07%)
  Carnival Corp ($CCL (-4,58%))

Wednesday:

• New home sales (May)
• Nvidia ($NVDA) (-7,25%) Annual general meeting
• Quarterly reports from Micron Technology ($MU (-12,45%)), Paychex, Inc. ($PAYX (-5,92%) ), General Mills, Inc. ($GIS), Jefferies Financial Group ($JEF (-9,33%) ), Levi Strauss & Co. ($LEVI (-3,27%) )

Thursday:

• Initial claims for unemployment benefits (week ending June 22)
• Preliminary foreign trade in goods (May)
• Preliminary wholesale inventories (May)
• Provisional retail stocks (May)
• Pending home sales (May)
• Durable Goods Orders (May)
• Salesforce Annual General Meeting $crm
• Quarterly reports from Nike, Inc. ($NKE (+3,05%) ), Walgreens Boots Alliance ($WBA (+0%)), McCormick & Company ($MKC (-4,67%) )

Friday:

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (May)
• Consumer Sentiment (June)
• Chicago Business Barometer (June)
• Speech by Tom BarkinPresident of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Opinion on $CCL (-4,58%) ?

Topic: Dividend in kind! Part 1

Instead of a normal dividend to receive a gift in kind from companies sounds basically very interesting!

Here I present a few stocks which offer a dividend in kind instead of/besides a normal dividend.

• $SIX2 (-6,59%)
  

With SIXT you only need one share to be entitled to a dividend in kind.

SIXT offers you, if you buy a share, 20% on the price of their rental cars. With that you get the entrance to their famous Diamond Lounge. For people who need to rent cars frequently, the share is certainly worth it.

Current price: ~ 107€

Dividend: / (not definable)

• $CCL (-4,58%)
  

Carnival is a cruise provider. Many will know the company in connection with AIDA. To receive a dividend in kind you have to hold 100 shares.

You can expect 40-200€ board credit on your next trip. This depends on how long the trip is.

Current price: ~ 1540€

Dividend: max 13%

• $CALN (-6,03%)
  

The pajamas of the investors. Unfortunately only available in Switzerland according to my information, but with 20 shares of Calida you will be sent a pair of pajamas worth 80€ every year.

Current price: ~708€

Dividend: 11,4%

I hope you could get a small compact overview.

I am aware that some of you will already know them, but I hope it still helps those who do not know them yet 🙈

LG Benny🚀

Stop loss. Nice with you $CCL (-4,58%) 👋🏻

With +65% I am completely satisfied, considering that I was temporarily at -60% 😅

At +30% I took profits once.

Edit: They are profits... Shit time weighting 😂