Postos
47HSBC HOLDINGS $HSBA (-6,91%) and UBS $UBSG (-4,93%) are expanding their wealth management businesses in India, driven by an IPO boom that has created a new group of millionaires in the country, reports the Financial Times.
UBS is reportedly looking at acquiring Indian wealth management firm 360 ONE, while HSBC announced in January that it plans to double the number of its branches in India.
In recent years, Dubai has established itself as a safe haven for money from conflict regions. This development is driven by two factors in particular:
*Western sanctions would include: The exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT, freezing of 300 billion euros in Central Bank reserves, import ban on Russian coal, investment restrictions in the energy sector, export bans on high tech, import bans on steel and luxury goods, asset freezes and travel bans on "elites", oligarchs and companies close to the government, EU port and airspace closures and EU broadcasting bans on Russian state media.*
The Dubai Financial Market Index reached a ten-year high in December 2024. The main drivers of this development were real estate & banking stocks, such as Emaar Properties. This rise can be directly attributed to capital flows driven by geopolitical crises, for example.
Why peace could weaken Dubai
Dubai's dependence on Crisis Capital means that geopolitical easing brings economic risks. These can be explained by the following points:
Dubai's role in geopolitical competition
In addition to economic implications, Dubai's position as a crisis profiteer also has diplomatic consequences.
The UAE has positioned itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine since 2022. Among other things, it has organized 9 prisoner exchanges and strengthened diplomatic relations. The most recent exchange took place on August 24, 2024, in which 115 prisoners were released. President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held talks with Vladimir Putin on bilateral relations and global developments. At the same time, he also received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky. Peace would reduce this influence.
While Dubai benefits from ongoing crises, Saudi Arabia is increasingly focusing on peace initiatives and long-term investment programs. With the Vision 2030 Saudi Arabia is pursuing an ambitious reform program to reduce its dependence on oil and is planning significant investments in the mining sector and in foreign mining projects with the aim of strengthening its position in mineral supply chains. An easing of tensions would therefore further strengthen Saudi Arabia's position as a leading power in the region.
If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, European banks could expect cash in flows that are currently flowing to Dubai. According to $UBSG (-4,93%) European banks are heading for record years, with dividend payouts and share buybacks of over €120 billion over the next two years and the EY European Bank Lending Forecast forecasts significant growth in lending volumes in the Eurozone -3.1% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026.
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/QjmnXzs5aPw?si=UBa2XKVcVG4h_9k1
Sunday:
Stock markets are likely to open lower on Monday. The reason is the tariff dispute between the USA and the rest of the world. Mexico and Canada have been hit with 25% tariffs, China with 10% and the EU is to follow suit. Both Mexico and Canada are not putting up with it and are hitting back. Justin Trudeau announces the same tariffs on US products and calls for a boycott of US products.
Monday:
Inflation in the eurozone is on the rise again. Inflation rates rose to 2.5% in January. The expectation was 2.4%, but in combination with Trump's tariffs, this news is unlikely to go down well. This is because higher inflation and tariffs could make further interest rate cuts less likely.
Tuesday:
UBS $UBSG (-4,93%) UBS benefits from higher interest rates and generates significantly higher profit. Profit amounted to 5.1 billion euros in 2024. The integration of Credit Suisse is progressing well. The dividend is set to increase.
Things are going well at $KGX (-12,66%) Kion. Despite an improved margin, the Group intends to further optimize costs. The operating margin improved to 8% in 2024. Cash flow and operating margin surprised positively.
Wednesday:
Trump once again enters negotiations with maximum demands. He talks about the USA taking over the Gaza Strip. We are curious to see what the final outcome will be.
$GOOGL (-2,35%) Alphabet falls slightly short of revenue expectations. Instead of USD 96.56 billion, it was only USD 96.47 billion. Overall, revenues increased by 12% in the last quarter. At 32%, the cloud division grew two percentage points less than expected.
German car manufacturers are not the only ones struggling with sales problems. Also $TSLA (-9,67%) Tesla and now $7203 (-5,25%) Toyota are also presenting poorer figures. Profits fell by 28% to 7.66 billion euros in the third quarter. In addition, Toyota is only now starting to develop electric cars.
Good news: producer prices in the eurozone have risen less sharply than expected at 0.4%.
Thursday:
The BoE cut the key interest rate to 4.5%. However, two members of the relevant committees called for an even greater rate cut. At the same time, the growth forecast in the UK 🇬🇧 was adjusted downwards.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Wednesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)
Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)
Friday: 14:30 Retail sales (USA)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇
$IFX (-8,11%) | Infineon Q1 2025 Earnings
- Rev €3.42B (est €3.21B)
- Total Segment Progit €573M (est €472.4M)
- Sees Q2 Rev About €3.6B (est €3.42B)
$OMV (-5,48%) | Q4 24 Earnings:
• Clean CCS Net Income: €555M (est €490M)
• Clean CCS Operating Profit: €1.38B (est €1.2B)
• Revenue: €5.5B (additional context pending).
• FY Dividend Per Share: €4.75 (est €4.68).
$BNP (-7,96%) Paribas Q4 24 Earnings:
• Net Income: €2.32B (est €2.29B)
• Total Revenue: €12.14B (est €11.68B)
• Equity & Prime Services Revenue: €856M, +30% Y/Y
• Loan-Loss Provision: €877M (est €881.6M)
• Share Buyback: €1.08B launch planned in Q2 2025.
$UBSG (-4,93%) Q4 24 Earnings:
• Net Income: $770M (est $485.7M)
• Pretax Profit: $1.05B (est $975.3M)
• Total Revenue: $11.64B (est $11.43B)
• Investment Bank Pretax Profit: $479M (est $63.6M)
• Asset Management Pretax Income: $128M (est $134.3M)
$DEO (-2,31%)
| Diageo H1 2025 Earnings
- Adj EPS $0.97 (est 0.98$)
- Adj Oper Profit $3.37B (est $3.3B)
- Rev $10.9B (est $10.7B)
- Net Sales +1% (est +0.46%)
- Organic Net Sales +1% (est +0.46%)
- Withdraws M/T Guidance Of 5%-7% Organic Sales
$VOD (-7,15%) | Vodafone Q3 2025 Earnings
- Germany Service Rev. EU2.71B (est EU2.73B)
- Germany Organic Service Rev. -6.4% (est -5.34%)
- FY25 Guidance Reiterated
$PCRFY | Panasonic Q3 2024 Earnings
- Net Income 99.50B Yen (est 92.54B Yen)
- Still Sees FY Net Income 310B Yen (est 317.54B Yen)
- Sees FY Dividend 40.00 Yen (est 39.50 Yen)
$NTDOY | Nintendo Q3 2024 Earnings
- Oper Income 126.08B Yen (est 155.63B Yen)
- Net Income 128.53B Yen (est 140.59B Yen)
- Total Switch Sales 9.54M Units, -31% (Y/Y)
- Sees FY Oper Income 280B Yen, Saw 360.00B Yen
- Sees FY Net Sales 1.19T Yen, Saw 1.28T Yen
UBS Group has published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, showing a solid performance with stable revenues and progress in the integration of Credit Suisse.
Key figures:
Progress in the integration of Credit Suisse
UBS is on track to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by the end of 2026 Risk-weighted assets (RWA) in Non-Core and Legacy have already been reduced by 52%, faster than originally planned
Cost management and increased efficiency
Outlook and capital returns
UBS delivered solid results in fourth quarter 2024 despite a challenging market environment. The integration of Credit Suisse is progressing faster than expected and the firm remains on track for growth with a clear focus on cost efficiency and shareholder returns.
Treasury position: 674 shares, at ~ CHF 14.50
Happy Investing
GG
Sergio ErmottiCEO of the $UBSG (-4,93%)expressed concerns at the #wef2025 concerns that an expected decline in interest rates due to the trade policies of the second term of Donald Trump could be delayed. In his view, inflation remains stubbornly higher than many experts suspect, due in part to the impact of trade tariffs.
Tariffs are expected to do little to reduce inflation. Instead, they could continue to drive up prices, reducing the likelihood of a faster rate cut.
January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:
"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"
The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.
As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.
Main topics:
Participants from politics & business.
Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.
The key figures from politics are:
Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)
Technology sector
Financial sector
Banking sector
Industry sector
... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.
⬆️⬆️⬆️
- Raymond James Upgrades Block Inc (SQ) to Outperform
Raymond James analyst John Davis upgraded Block Inc (NYSE: SQ) from Market Perform to Outperform with a price target of $115.00. $SQ (-5,79%)
- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB upgrades KNORR-BREMSE from Sell to Hold and raises price target from EUR 63.60 to EUR 65. $KBX (-7,73%)
- EXANE BNP upgrades UBS from Neutral to Outperform and raises price target from CHF 27 to CHF 35. $UBSG (-4,93%)
- BERENBERG raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 91.10 to EUR 95.30. Buy. $TLX (-6,98%)
- BERENBERG raises the price target for SNP from EUR 56 to EUR 61. Hold. $SHF (-0,59%)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
- UBS lowers the price target for ADOBE SYSTEMS from USD 525 to USD 475. Neutral. $ADBE (-3,9%)
- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 31.80 to EUR 26.34. Hold. $1SXP (-6,13%)
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/oV3omttRVN0?si=4olXTaUPp-fMjSYS
Monday:
The subsidy bankruptcy of our Economics Minister continues. At $INTC (-10,63%) Intel and $WOLF (-0,76%) Wolfspeed, the plants were not even built and therefore no subsidies have been paid. Things could now get even worse at Northvolt, where the subsidies have already been paid out. However, Northvolt has now filed for bankruptcy. In the worst case scenario, the state has given away 620 million euros of taxpayers' money.
On Monday, the mood in US industry brightened surprisingly strongly. Nevertheless, the purchasing managers' index signals a slowdown.
Tuesday:
The DAX breaks through the 20,000 point mark for the first time in its history, reaching a new record high.
South Korea's president declares martial law. This is in response to the threat posed by North Korea. The rest of the world sees this as a coup d'état and protests break out.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DDHpNlBsl0c/?igsh=MW5ycDh2NHNkbno1dg==
Thursday:
$HFG (-6,83%) Hellofresh can gain significantly after several upgrades by analysts. Jeffries and JPMorgan have raised the price target by 100% in some cases.
Friday:
The largest free trade zone in the world could be created, the so-called Mercosur agreement between the EU and South America. France still wants to scupper the deal, but Javier Milei wants the free trade zone. The Mercosur agreement was adopted on Friday evening.
Consumer sentiment in the US has continued to improve. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose. This means that consumer sentiment has improved for the fifth month in a row.
Saturday:
Billionaires are relocating more often since Covid. At least according to a new study by $UBSG (-4,93%) UBS. The main influencing factors are the quality of life in the respective countries, as well as the legal framework for the wealthy. The main target countries are therefore also countries with particularly low taxes: The USA 🇺🇸, Switzerland 🇨🇭, the UAE 🇦🇪 and Singapore 🇸🇬.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DDSYluRumiW/?igsh=YjJkb3gybWhxc3I4
Key dates for the coming week:
Tuesday: 08:00 Inflation data (DE)
Wednesday: 15:45 Interest rate decision BoC (Canada)
Thursday: 14:30 Interest rate decision (ECB)
What other important dates can you think of?
UBS Seeks Expanded US Banking License in Growth Push
Bloomberg, 19.11.2024, 2 minutes
EN/DE
$UBSG (-4,93%) is seeking a wider permission to operate in the United States, a market it has earmarked for growth.
The Swiss bank is considering applying for a license under the supervision of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to a spokesperson, who confirmed a Handelsblatt report. Such an approval would make it easier for UBS to make loans and take deposits across the nation.
Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti has made expanding in the US wealth market a key part of his strategy beyond the immediate integration of Credit Suisse, which the bank bought last year. The takeover has beefed up UBS's US investment bank, which it plans to use to sign on entrepreneurs and rich individuals as clients for its private banking business.
UBS recently made a string of investment banking leadership changes following some senior departures as the Swiss lender seeks to bolster areas such as health care and leveraged finance, Bloomberg has reported.
The Zurich-based bank is a massive wealth management firm globally but lags the domestic competition in the US, where it operates through a network of more than 6,000 financial advisers who are not directly bound to the bank.
Chairman Colm Kelleher said last month that UBS will eventually look to buy a US wealth management firm, though that will only happen once the Credit Suisse integration is complete.
Happy Investing
GG
--------------
EN:
UBS seeks expanded US banking license for growth
Bloomberg, 19.11.2024, 2 minutes
DE/DE
UBS is seeking an expanded license to do business in the United States, a market it has earmarked for growth.
The Swiss bank is considering applying for a license under the supervision of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a spokesman said, confirming a Handelsblatt report. Such a license would make it easier for UBS to lend and take deposits nationwide.
Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti has made expansion in the U.S. wealth market a key part of his strategy, which goes beyond the immediate integration of Credit Suisse, which the bank bought last year. The acquisition has strengthened UBS's US investment bank, which it plans to use to attract entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals as clients for its private banking business.
UBS has recently made a series of leadership changes in its investment banking division after a number of senior hires left the company to bolster areas such as healthcare and leveraged finance, Bloomberg reports.
The Zurich-based bank is a massive wealth manager globally but lags domestic rivals in the U.S., where it works through a network of more than 6,000 financial advisers who aren't directly tied to the bank.
Chairman Colm Kelleher said last month that UBS will consider buying a U.S. wealth management firm, but not until the integration of Credit Suisse is complete.
Happy investing
GG
