The regulatory hurdles can be overcome. The market assessment should focus more on the operational execution of the integration. This offers opportunities for investors.

Article from FuW, supplemented by own commentary at the end.

The price targets for $UBSG (+0,27%) drift far apart. The Analysten kommen auf keinen gemeinsamen Nennerhow the major Swiss bank can be reasonably valued. The pessimists see lows of close to CHF 20, while the optimists expect almost double that. This is mainly due to the differing expectations regarding the bank's future capital requirements.

Also im Aktienkurs spiegelt sich diese Unsicherheit. And this has been the case for April des letzten Jahres. The Federal Council then presented its regulatory plans to the public for the first time. A concrete figure followed in June of this year: 26 Mrd. $, so viel Kapital soll UBS aufbauen, to become crisis-proof. The proposal still has to go through parliament. There will be no final clarity until 2028.

Convincing implementation strength

The market is currently pricing in a high probability of a negative outcome on the regulatory front. This is indicated by the current valuation with a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of around 1.1. Compared to the closest comparable value, the valuation discount is more than 50%: The major US bank Morgan Stanley ($MS (-0,59%) ) is trading at a P/B ratio of over 2.3. In Europe, the most profitable major banks such as Nordea ($NDA FI (+0,72%) ), UniCredit ($UCG (-0,1%) ) and Intesa Sanpaolo ($ISP (-0,29%) ) are trading at 1.5, 1.4 and 1.3 respectively.

The uncertainty discount for UBS is too large. The integration of Credit Suisse is on track and value is being released on an ongoing basis. The progress already made is still not being sufficiently rewarded by the market. So far, management has been able to keep or exceed its promises. The strength of implementation is convincing. Cost synergies are being realized faster than planned, the Non-Core and Legacy unit is being efficiently wound down and the core businesses, such as Global Wealth Management, are flourishing.

For the courageous investor, the undervaluation is an opportunity. It opens up an attractive entry point, especially if you put the current share price in relation to the expected earnings per share for the future, before a Neubewertung nach Abschluss der Integration follows. This should be achieved by the end of 2026.

Titan is in the making

The UBS share now offers investors an asymmetrical risk/reward profile: the upside potential if the integration succeeds appears to be significantly greater than the downside risk. In terms of regulation, the worst-case scenario is known. Things can only get better for the big bank in the political process.

While waiting for clarification on the regulatory issue, the market should focus on the operational execution of the integration. UBS is forging a global champion - a titan is in the making. The bank's next quarterly reports will provide important clues on profitability and net new money. How it weiterhin Aktionärswert schaffen wants, UBS could communicate.

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Own opinion:

I hold $UBSG (+0,27%) mainly because of the solid dividend policy, which is targeted in the medium term, and the general confidence in the Swiss financial center. There is enough time until 2028 not only to digest the regulatory requirements, but also to support them politically. In my opinion, the market is currently underestimating how much scope there is for strategic fine-tuning and targeted lobbying during this period.

As long as the integration continues as before in operational terms, I believe the potential for setbacks is limited - and investors' patience could pay off. In addition, I am in personal contact with a person who is involved in the integration and reports more success than failure. If the spin-off of the small loan business (consumer credit) is also successful, this will also free up short-term capital.

I hold - 674 shares at an average price of CHF 14.01.

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As part of the repurchase program approved at its Annual General Meeting on 10 April 2025, UBS Group AG announces the launch of a new two-year program to repurchase up to USD 2bn of shares.

Zurich, 30 June 2025 - As part of the repurchase program approved at its Annual General Meeting on 10 April 2025, UBS Group AG ($UBSG (+0,27%) ) announces the launch of a new two-year program to repurchase up to USD 2bn of shares.

The new program is scheduled to start on 1 July 2025. As previously announced, UBS intends to repurchase up to USD 2bn of shares in the second half of 2025.

The program launched in April 2024 was closed after completing its aim of USD 2bn of share repurchases.

UBS will communicate its 2026 capital return ambitions with its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results early next year.

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And as a small service the explanation of share buybacks <3

A share buyback means that a company buys back its own shares on the market, thereby reducing the number of freely available shares. This spreads the profit over fewer shares, which automatically increases earnings per share. A higher EPS looks attractive to investors and can support or even drive the share price. Buybacks are often seen as a signal that the company believes in its own success and considers the share to be undervalued. Instead of investing the surplus capital in new projects, it is indirectly returned to the shareholders. In contrast to dividends, no money flows directly into the account, but the value per share increases. At the same time, the buyback reduces equity because money flows out of the treasury, which can improve the return on equity. Many companies also use buybacks to offset the dilution caused by employee share programs. This is usually a positive sign for investors because it shows confidence in the company's financial strength. A buyback often has a stabilizing effect, especially when the share price fluctuates. Nevertheless, a company must always consider whether it would be better to invest the money in growth, innovation or debt reduction. This is because a buyback is particularly worthwhile if there are no more attractive investment opportunities. What counts in the long term is that enough capital remains for new projects, crises or regulatory requirements. Used correctly, buybacks can therefore bring added value to shareholders without jeopardizing future viability. This is why investors often see them as a sign of maturity and solid management.

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Happy Investing

GG

Now is the best opportunity to become a co-owner of the best bank in Switzerland! $UBSG (+0,27%)

Take it!!! (While stocks last)

HSBC HOLDINGS $HSBA (+0,93%) and UBS $UBSG (+0,27%) are expanding their wealth management businesses in India, driven by an IPO boom that has created a new group of millionaires in the country, reports the Financial Times.

UBS is reportedly looking at acquiring Indian wealth management firm 360 ONE, while HSBC announced in January that it plans to double the number of its branches in India.

In recent years, Dubai has established itself as a safe haven for money from conflict regions. This development is driven by two factors in particular:

• Russian capital flightSince the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022, around 200k Russian citizens have settled in Dubai. These include oligarchs, wealthy businessmen and companies seeking to escape Western sanctions. This has led to a sharp increase in demand for luxury real estate, banking services & company registration.

• Sanctions evasion and trade boomThe United Arab Emirates (UAE) has refused to enforce Western sanctions against Russia*. This has allowed Dubai to establish itself as a major hub for Russian financial transactions through dirham-ruble transactions, re-export of oil and gold trading. For example, Russian oil shipments to the UAE's Fujairah terminal increased to 141,000 barrels per day (end of 2022), while Russian gold imports to the UAE rose from 1.3 tons (2021) to 96.4 tons (2022), i.e. 74 times more. 74-fold.

*Western sanctions would include: The exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT, freezing of 300 billion euros in Central Bank reserves, import ban on Russian coal, investment restrictions in the energy sector, export bans on high tech, import bans on steel and luxury goods, asset freezes and travel bans on "elites", oligarchs and companies close to the government, EU port and airspace closures and EU broadcasting bans on Russian state media.*

The Dubai Financial Market Index reached a ten-year high in December 2024. The main drivers of this development were real estate & banking stocks, such as Emaar Properties. This rise can be directly attributed to capital flows driven by geopolitical crises, for example.

Why peace could weaken Dubai

Dubai's dependence on Crisis Capital means that geopolitical easing brings economic risks. These can be explained by the following points:

• Should there be a peace agreement in the Ukraine war, many Russian investors could repatriate their capital or reinvest in Western markets. This would have a significant impact on Dubai's real estate and financial sector.

• If Western sanctions against Russia are eased, Dubai will lose its strategic importance as a financial and trading hub for Russian companies. Ruble-dirham settlements and trade in sanctioned goods such as semiconductors would be particularly affected.

• The value of real estate in Dubai has almost doubled since 2021. Analysts warn that a geopolitical normalization could lead to a sharp decline in demand from Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East, which would result in a real estate correction.

• While the DFMGI rose by 24.5 % in 2024, analysts expect weaker development in 2025. The reasons for this are uncertain $IOIL00 (-0,29%) prices, potential capital outflows and lower demand from crisis regions.

Dubai's role in geopolitical competition

In addition to economic implications, Dubai's position as a crisis profiteer also has diplomatic consequences.

The UAE has positioned itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine since 2022. Among other things, it has organized 9 prisoner exchanges and strengthened diplomatic relations. The most recent exchange took place on August 24, 2024, in which 115 prisoners were released. President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held talks with Vladimir Putin on bilateral relations and global developments. At the same time, he also received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky. Peace would reduce this influence.

While Dubai benefits from ongoing crises, Saudi Arabia is increasingly focusing on peace initiatives and long-term investment programs. With the Vision 2030 Saudi Arabia is pursuing an ambitious reform program to reduce its dependence on oil and is planning significant investments in the mining sector and in foreign mining projects with the aim of strengthening its position in mineral supply chains. An easing of tensions would therefore further strengthen Saudi Arabia's position as a leading power in the region.

If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, European banks could expect cash in flows that are currently flowing to Dubai. According to $UBSG (+0,27%) European banks are heading for record years, with dividend payouts and share buybacks of over €120 billion over the next two years and the EY European Bank Lending Forecast forecasts significant growth in lending volumes in the Eurozone -3.1% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/QjmnXzs5aPw?si=UBa2XKVcVG4h_9k1

Sunday:

Stock markets are likely to open lower on Monday. The reason is the tariff dispute between the USA and the rest of the world. Mexico and Canada have been hit with 25% tariffs, China with 10% and the EU is to follow suit. Both Mexico and Canada are not putting up with it and are hitting back. Justin Trudeau announces the same tariffs on US products and calls for a boycott of US products.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/reaktion-auf-trump-kanada-schlaegt-im-zollstreit-zurueck-dollar-fuer-dollar/100105058.html

Monday:

Inflation in the eurozone is on the rise again. Inflation rates rose to 2.5% in January. The expectation was 2.4%, but in combination with Trump's tariffs, this news is unlikely to go down well. This is because higher inflation and tariffs could make further interest rate cuts less likely.

https://www.morningstar.de/de/news/260151/inflation-in-der-eurozone-steigt-wieder-an---eu-bereitet-sich-auf-us-zouml%3Blle-vor.aspx

Tuesday:

UBS $UBSG (+0,27%) UBS benefits from higher interest rates and generates significantly higher profit. Profit amounted to 5.1 billion euros in 2024. The integration of Credit Suisse is progressing well. The dividend is set to increase.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/banken-ubs-hebt-nach-gewinnsprung-dividende-deutlich-an/100105216.html

Things are going well at $KGX (+1,14%) Kion. Despite an improved margin, the Group intends to further optimize costs. The operating margin improved to 8% in 2024. Cash flow and operating margin surprised positively.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/effizienzoffensive-kion-aktie-gewinnt-marge-2024-verbessert-sich-kion-setzt-dennoch-sparmassnahmen-um-14205140

Wednesday:

Trump once again enters negotiations with maximum demands. He talks about the USA taking over the Gaza Strip. We are curious to see what the final outcome will be.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/israel-trump-will-gaza-besetzen-und-palaestinenser-umsiedeln/100105686.html

$GOOGL (+2,21%) Alphabet falls slightly short of revenue expectations. Instead of USD 96.56 billion, it was only USD 96.47 billion. Overall, revenues increased by 12% in the last quarter. At 32%, the cloud division grew two percentage points less than expected.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/quartalszahlen-vorgelegt-alphabet-aktie-rutscht-ab-google-mutter-alphabet-mit-gewinnsprung-cloudgeschaeft-enttaeuscht-14201453

German car manufacturers are not the only ones struggling with sales problems. Also $TSLA (-0,84%) Tesla and now $7203 (-0,31%) Toyota are also presenting poorer figures. Profits fell by 28% to 7.66 billion euros in the third quarter. In addition, Toyota is only now starting to develop electric cars.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/toyota-gewinn-des-groessten-autoherstellers-bricht-um-mehr-als-ein-viertel-ein/100105585.html

Good news: producer prices in the eurozone have risen less sharply than expected at 0.4%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-erzeugerpreise-im-euroraum-gestiegen/100105784.html

Thursday:

The BoE cut the key interest rate to 4.5%. However, two members of the relevant committees called for an even greater rate cut. At the same time, the growth forecast in the UK 🇬🇧 was adjusted downwards.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/bank-of-england-leitzins-in-grossbritannien-sinkt-erneut-notenbank-steckt-im-stagflationsdilemma/100104646.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Wednesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)

Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)

Friday: 14:30 Retail sales (USA)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#inflation
#usa
#einzelhandel

$UBSG (+0,27%)

UBS Group has published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, showing a solid performance with stable revenues and progress in the integration of Credit Suisse.

Key figures:

• Total revenuesUSD 11.6 billion (+7% compared to Q4 2023)
• Operating profit before taxesUSD 1.05 billion (Q4 2023: USD -751 million)
• Net result for shareholdersUSD 770 million (Q4 2023: USD -279 million)
• Return on equity (RoE): 3,6% (Q4 2023: -1,3%)
• Assets under management6.1 trillion USD (+6% compared to Q4 2023)

Progress in the integration of Credit Suisse

UBS is on track to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by the end of 2026 Risk-weighted assets (RWA) in Non-Core and Legacy have already been reduced by 52%, faster than originally planned

Cost management and increased efficiency

• Operating costs fell by 10% year-on-year to USD 10.4 billion.
• Cost savings of USD 7.5 billion have been realized to date, which corresponds to 58% of the target of USD 13 billion by 2026.

Outlook and capital returns

• DividendA distribution of USD 0.90 per share is planned (previous year: USD 0.70).
• Share buybacksUBS plans USD 1 bn buybacks in the first half of 2025, with a possible additional USD 2 bn in the second half of the year.

UBS delivered solid results in fourth quarter 2024 despite a challenging market environment. The integration of Credit Suisse is progressing faster than expected and the firm remains on track for growth with a clear focus on cost efficiency and shareholder returns.

Treasury position: 674 shares, at ~ CHF 14.50

Happy Investing

GG