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32HennRes | Possibly billions in losses due to Trump's tariffs
According to $JPM (+1.81%) the neuen Zölle
$GM (+1.34%) could cost up to 14 billion US dollars, which would eat up almost the entire forecast global EBIT of 12.5-14.5 billion US dollars for 2025. For $F (+2.79%) is expected to have an impact of around USD 6 billion, which corresponds to approximately 75% of the estimated global EBIT of USD 7.75 billion for 2025.
$GM (+1.34%) imports around USD 56 billion worth of vehicles annually from Mexico and Canada, resulting in estimated tariffs of around USD 10 billion on finished vehicles and an additional USD 4 billion on parts, totaling USD 14 billion.
The tariffs could increase vehicle prices by $3k to $12k, potentially reducing US sales by 500k units.
$JPM (+1.81%) has lowered the price target for $GM (+1.34%) from 64 US dollars to 53 US dollars and for $F (+2.79%) from 13 US dollars to 11 US dollars
$BARC (+0.81%) warns that the tariffs could make car manufacturers "structurally unprofitable" if they remain unchanged.
Day 2 | WEF 2025
$BARC (+0.81%) CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan expects under Donald Trump a relaxation of regulations in the USA. For Barclayswhich generates a significant proportion of its revenues in the US market, these changes would be of great importance as they could promote "economic dynamism" and create new business opportunities.
He is also confident that this trend could spread to Europe and the UK. Governments there are increasingly beginning to recognize the developments in the USA and considering possible adjustments to their own regulations to provide economic stimulus.
Venkatakrishnan also spoke positively at the #wef2025 also positive about the outlook for M&A in the USA. The stabilized interest rates and the new government could create better framework conditions that could facilitate such activities.
Despite challenges in the UK, such as stagnating growth, high government debt and a weak pound, he sees potential. Barclays continues to focus on investments in the UK, as the infrastructure is considered stable and reliable. He sees the government's new economic program as a promising approach, but one that will need time to take full effect.
its full effect.
World Economic Forum 2025
January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:
"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"
The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.
As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.
Main topics:
- Rethinking growth: How can we tap into new sources of economic growth?
- How can companies respond to tech and geopolitical upheaval?
- What measures promote education, health & human capital?
- How can innovative partnerships & techs drive climate protection?
- How can cooperation be strengthened to overcome social divisions?
Participants from politics & business.
Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.
The key figures from politics are:
- 🇺🇸 Donald J. Trump(soon to be) President of the USA (via video link)
- 🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
- 🇨🇳 Ding XuexiangVice Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China
- 🇦🇷 Javier MileiPresident of Argentina
- 🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany
- 🇿🇦 Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
- 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain
- 🇨🇭 Karin Keller-Sutter, President of the Swiss Confederation 2025
- 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)
Technology sector
- 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-0.72%) (Microsoft) - Satya Nadella, CEO
- 🇺🇸 $AMZN (-0.36%) (Amazon) - Andy Jassy, CEO
- 🇺🇸 $IBM (+0.22%) (IBM) - Arvind Krishna, CEO
- 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-0.72%) (Microsoft) - Bill Gates, co-founder and head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- 🌎 Cohere - Aidan Gomez, CEO
- 🌎 $META (+0.27%) (Meta) - Yann LeCun, AI scientist
- 🌎 OpenAI - Sam Altman, CEO
- 🇺🇸 $TSLA (+0.65%) (Tesla) - Elon Musk, CEO
Financial sector
- 🇪🇺 ECB - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
- 🇫🇷 ECB - Francois Villeroy de Galhau, President of the French Central Bank
- 🇩🇪 German Bundesbank- Joachim Nagel, President
- 🇺🇸 $BLK (BlackRock) - Martin Lück, Chief Investment Strategist
- 🇳🇱 $ING (+0.61%) (ING) - Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany
Banking sector
- 🇺🇸 $JPM (+1.81%) (JPMorgan Chase) - Jamie Dimon, CEO
- 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+1.27%) (UBS) - Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO
- 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+1.27%) (UBS) - Colm Kelleher, President
- 🇩🇪 $DBK (+0.67%) (Deutsche Bank) - Christian Sewing, CEO
- 🇺🇸 $GS (+3.35%) (Goldman Sachs) - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO
- 🇺🇸 $BAC (+1.04%) (Bank of America) - Brian Moynihan, CEO
- 🇺🇸 $C (+2.41%) (Citigroup) - Jane Fraser, CEO
- 🇬🇧 $HSBA (+0.38%) (HSBC) - Mark Tucker, Group Chairman
- 🇬🇧 $HSBA (+0.38%) (HSBC) - Michael Roberts, CEO of HSBC Bank
- 🇺🇸 $MS (+2.32%) (Morgan Stanley) - Ted Pick, CEO
- 🇬🇧 $BARC (+0.81%) (Barclays) - C.S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO
- 🇫🇷 $GLE (-0.67%) (Société Générale) - Slawomir Krupa, CEO
- 🇮🇹 $UCG (-1.52%) (UniCredit) - Andrea Orcel, CEO
- 🇦🇹 $BG (+0.37%) (BAWAG Group) - Anja E. M. W. Schreiber, CEO
- 🇦🇹 $EBS (+0%) (Erste Group) - Andreas Treichl, CEO
Industry sector
- 🇩🇪 $BAYN (+0.79%) (Bayer) - Bill Anderson, CEO
- 🇨🇭 $NESNE (Nestlé) - Mark Schneider, CEO
- 🇬🇧 $ULVR (+1.88%) (Unilever) - Hein Schumacher, CEO
- 🇨🇳 SHEIN - Donald Tang, Vice Chairman
- 🇮🇳 ADANIENT (Adani Enterprises) - Gautam Adani, Chairman
... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.
$BARC (+0.81%) sees rally after US elections 🙋♂️✌️
How do you think the markets will react after the election?
Barclays $BARC (+0.81%) today with a small setback 🙋♂️
Good purchase price in view of the latest figures 🚀🫡
Dear getquin-Community,
after several months of listening in / reading on the sidelines on getquin, I would like to throw my portfolio on the plate for you to give me some feedback / roastings / advice. Everything is welcome ;-)
I do not want to drop the portfolio without sharing some (personal) thoughts from my side, please find below:
- Asset Allocation:
- Bit unsure about short-term effects (e.g. US election) therefore rather high #cash ratio
- Would like to have higher #etf-ratio compared to individual stocks, but I cannot "control" myself as I would like to. Listening to quite a few financial podcasts and my watchlist has expanded since then quite a lot
- Not a big fan of anything else than #stocks and #bonds. My basic principle is that the money has to "work" / create inherent returns. Therefore no #gold, no #bitcoin in my portfolio
- Investment "Style":
- Difficult to explain myself
- Naturally, I feel drawn to #contrarian approaches since I regard stock market to be far from "efficient", much more influenced by behavioral biases pushing stocks too high when everything seems to be going great and pushing stocks too low when #momentum is against them
- I am convinced that these exaggerations can be "exploited" if you have a strong gut and can stand 30-50% draw-backs
- Mindset / Character:
- Had some heavy draw-backs on my positions in the past which I regularly used to increase my positions in these stocks. Examples from the current portfolio include $VNA (+1.11%), $BATS (+0.84%), $BARC (+0.81%), $PYPL (+1.65%)
- I would describe myself as having a tendency towards over-confidence and I am bit afraid of not being able to let go of losers in my portfolio (examples from my current portfolio could be $VOW (+2.02%), $VALE3 (+1.05%), $ADM (+3.14%), $INTC (-0.72%))
- My general approach would be to "double down" to "prove the others in the market wrong". Which is childish I assume, because why should I have any edge compared to the overall market. My only (potential) edge - e.g. compared to institutional funds - would be that I have rather little difficulties sleeping well if positions are substantially down. So I assume I can stand long periods of draw-backs. But this also makes me prone for sticking with particular investments until eternity/insolvency ;-)
I am were much looking forward to your feedback / roastings on my portfolio.
Thank you very much in advance.
Have a great time investing!
Yours
Markus