$CFR (-4.77%) currently has an important factor that clearly sets it apart from competitors such as LVMH and Hermes!
Not least for this reason and the attractive chart picture should make you sit up and take notice.
Click here for a brief analysis:
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8$CFR (-4.77%) currently has an important factor that clearly sets it apart from competitors such as LVMH and Hermes!
Not least for this reason and the attractive chart picture should make you sit up and take notice.
Click here for a brief analysis:
The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.
This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.
I have also added additional sources and charts.
__________
🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population
The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]
Increase in the older population:
Source: [2]
Regional differences:
Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.
Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.
Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]
While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]
Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]
In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.
🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions
Facts:
Possible profiteers:
Medical technology
Pharmaceuticals
🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide
Facts:
The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]
In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]
In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]
Potential beneficiaries:
Care providers
Homecare
Telemedicine
Anti-Aging
🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"
The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]
It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.
The trends are also similar internationally:
This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.
Possible beneficiaries:
Luxury
Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])
Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])
🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage
Facts:
The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]
Profiteers:
🧠 Conclusion:
Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.
I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.
Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?
Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?
Thanks for reading!
_________
Sources:
[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages
[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/
[4]
https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/
I was able to leave the champagne in the fridge yesterday after LVMH $MC (-4.43%) fell short of expectations in terms of profit and net income, losing up to -5% at times. The share recovered slightly later in trading. Things don't look so rosy today either. In the long term, however, I am not worried, even if the jump above €800 may take a little longer.
Let's start with the facts:
I have taken the time and trouble to read through the annual reports and listen to the earnings call:
Summary and classification from the published annual reports of LVMH "Presentation
2024
Annual Results" [1] and "Financial Domcuments" [2]. Page references in the source reference refer to the reports mentioned separately in [Source 1 & 2].
First of all, a brief overview of how the % figures in the annual report are to be understood, as this is important in my opinion.
📈 Percentage figures: "Published" vs. "Organic"
Two types of growth figures are given in the LVMH reports:
1 . Published development (Published)
2 . Organic development (Organic)
Why the difference is important:
Published change gives a complete picture of external factors. Organic change, on the other hand, shows operational performance and is a better indicator of a company's long-term stability.
📊 Business figures 2024: overview
Regional performance: [1, p. 17-18]
Main factors for profit decline explained: (Transcript Earnings Call, CFO: Jean-Jacques Guiony)
LVMH reports a 17% drop in profits to 12.5 billion euros compared to the record previous year. This is mainly due to several factors:
1 . Increase in costs:
2 . Currency and price fluctuations:
3 . losses in certain areas:
4 . Higher expenses:
Additional management decision:
Summarized so far: LVMH's profit decline resulted from an imbalance between cost increases and sales growth, as well as specific challenges in some business units.
👜 Products & segments: Highlights 2024
1 . Fashion & leather goods
2 . Perfumes & Cosmetics
3 . Wines & Spirits
4 . Watches & Jewelry
5 . Selective Retailing (Sephora & DFS)
🌎 Sustainability in case anyone is itching:
💰 Financial strength and key figures
Cash and debt
Inventories
📈 Classification in the stock market environment
LVMH shares have been under pressure in recent months, despite strong fundamentals:
LVMH has reported a 17% drop in profits, not a good sign at first glance. But when you look at the details, it becomes clear:
The problems are largely temporary.
⚡ Why I remain optimistic in the long term:
📉 It may remain bumpy in the short term, but LVMH is a quality company with a strong capacity for innovation, which will remain in demand even in difficult times. I am looking forward to the future plans of the industry leader, which remains on course for success with a strongly growing brand presence. For long-term investors, the "price slide" could therefore be more of an opportunity than a risk. (Of course, my personal opinion does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. 🙂)
Finally, Bernard Arnault was also optimistic about the future:
"LVMH will continue to focus on creativity, excellence and agility to extend its leadership in the luxury market. Despite global uncertainties, the Group sees further potential for sustainable growth and long-term success."
🎉 Thanks for reading! From here on there are attachments, examples & original slides
_______________
*Exchange rate fluctuations explained (example)
When a company like LVMH sells products in the USA, sales are generated in US dollars (USD). However, since LVMH publishes its financial report in euros (EUR), these sales must be converted into euros.
What happens if the US dollar depreciates against the euro?
1 . Before the devaluation: 1 USD = 0.95 EUR
2 . After the devaluation: 1 USD = 0.90 EUR
➡️ Although LVMH sold exactly the same amount in the USA, sales in euros appear lower.
At the beginning of 2024: 1 USD = 0.9060 EUR.
Low on August 23: 1 USD = 0.8927 EUR.
Increase until December 31: 1 USD = 0.9662 EUR.
_______________
Sources:
[1] LVMH: "Presentation" to " 2024 Annual Results"
https://lvmh-com.cdn.prismic.io/lvmh-com/Z5j825bqstJ998qD_LVMH-2024FullYearresults.pdf
[2] LVMH: "Financial Domcuments"
https://lvmh-com.cdn.prismic.io/lvmh-com/Z5kVBpbqstJ999KR_Financialdocuments-December31%2C2024.pdf
[3] Expected results 2024
https://stock3.com/news/lvmh-aktie-nach-zahlen-deutlich-unter-druck-2-16085679
If you've made it this far, you can still see the original slides from the presentation of my favorite products, or rather those of my wife 😵💫.
+ 5
Tonight presents LVMH
$MC (-4.43%) presents its results for the 2024 financial year and Q4.
https://www.lvmh.com/en/financial-calendar/2024-full-year-results
Analysts expect sales for the fourth quarter of 23.2 billion euros and earnings per share (EPS) of 17.44 euros [1].
For the full year 2024, turnover of 84.2 billion euros and EBITDA of 25.97 billion euros is forecast [2].
Morgan Stanley raised its rating for LVMH to "overweight" yesterday and set the target price at 820 euros (+14%). As a result, the share price rose by 3% and is moving back towards the 800 euro mark [1].
Market development:
The luxury sector recently experienced an upswing after Richemont $CFR (-4.77%) the parent company of Cartier, presented impressive figures.
In the third quarter, which ended in December 2024, turnover rose by 10% to 6.15 billion euroswhich exceeded analysts' expectations [3].
The positive results also boosted other luxury brands such as LVMH, Kering $KER (-5.3%) and Hermes $RMS (-3.51%) [4].
The US market is expected to be a key driver of LVMH's growth, especially given the continued weakness of the Chinese market [5].
USA: A sustained recovery in demand is boosting sales.
China: The recovery is slower than expected, but competitors such as Burberry $BRBY (-8.07%) are reporting stabilized sales.
Fashion & Leather Goods: Louis Vuitton and brands such as Loewe and Rimowa continue to perform strongly.
Risks in brief:
Morgan Stanley warns of potential burdens from tariffs on luxury goods or consumer restraint, particularly in China.
Should growth at Louis Vuitton stagnate, this could have a negative impact on the entire Group.
Portfolio:
LVMH is the second-largest single position in my portfolio after getquin Deepdive with just under 5%, consisting of direct and indirect investments, behind Bitcoin $BTC (-0%) .
I am therefore looking forward to the results tonight and am betting on a strong Q4.
The battle for Europe's most valuable company continues... can LVMH still surprise and make the leap over the €800 mark or are expectations already priced in?
___________________
Sources:
[1]
http://de.investing.com/equities/l.v.m.h.?
[2]
https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/LVMH-4669/termine/
[3]
https://www.richemont.com/investors/results-reports-presentations/
[4]
https://www.investopedia.com/european-luxury-stocks-jump-on-richemont-record-quarterly-sales-8775521
[5]
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week. As well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/6kS3uOc3Gyo?si=ylP3Ik3aaxt4tQ6Q
Monday:
The Dutch pension fund ABP sold all of its $TSLA (-3.59%) Tesla shares. However, the reason for the sale is not Elon Musk's political statements. It was his remuneration model and the working conditions at Tesla. According to Tesla, Musk is entitled to a 56 billion dollar share package that Musk has been fighting over with American courts.
Tuesday:
$ST5 (-5.23%) Steico exceeded expectations in terms of turnover 376.3 million euros instead of 375 million euros. However, profits were slightly lower than expected. Steico manufactures sustainable insulation materials.
https://www.ecoreporter.de/artikel/steico-mehr-umsatz-weniger-gewinn-aktie-legt-zu/
Producer prices in the USA are less hot than expected. Year-on-year, producer prices rose by 3.3%. However, analysts had expected an increase of 3.5%. Producer prices are regarded as a leading indicator for inflation.
https://www.ariva.de/news/usa-erzeugerpreise-steigen-weniger-als-erwartet-11501258
Wednesday:
The German economy remains in a permanent slump. According to initial estimates, GDP shrank by 0.2% in 2024. This means that GDP has shrunk for two consecutive years (2023: 0.3%). This was last seen in 2002 and 2003 and resulted in Agenda 2010. It is striking that comparable political players were in government in 2002 and 2003, as well as in 2023 and 2024.
New DAX record at 20,609 points. The reason for the rise is a decline in core inflation in the USA. This reduces the risk of a restrictive monetary policy by the Fed. Core inflation was expected to be 3.3 %, but was actually 3.2 %.
Thursday:
As the Swiss luxury group $CFR (-4.77%) Richemont presents strong figures, the entire luxury goods sector takes off. Even $KER (-5.3%) Kering and $MC (-4.43%) LVMH were also able to make significant gains. The Christmas quarter went much better than expected.
Also $ZAL (-2.37%) Zalando reported a strong final quarter and exceeded its profit targets in Q4. EBIT is likely to rise to 510 million euros, whereas a maximum of 480 million euros was originally forecast.
In his first days as President of the European manufacturers' association ACEA, Ola Källenius is campaigning against the CO2 sanctions imposed on car manufacturers. His argument is that we need a market-driven path to decarbonization and not one driven by EU sanctions.
Friday:
Trump is likely planning to make cryptocurrencies a national priority and wants to give crypto insiders a voice in the government to do so.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DE6ZsF6R-5v/?igsh=bjgyMGVhemZjMWZx
Industrial production in the US rises by a surprising 0.6% in December. Experts had only expected an increase of 0.2%. Mining and the production of utilities also increased.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Monday: 08:00 Producer prices (DE)
Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (Canada)
Thursday: 14:30 Unemployment figures (USA)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇
⬆️⬆️⬆️
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for SAP from EUR 200 to EUR 230. Hold. $SAP (-2.38%)
- UBS upgrades HUGO BOSS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 41 to EUR 49. $BOSS (-6.2%)
- BOFA raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 55 to EUR 56. Neutral. $FRA (-2.64%)
- UBS raises target price for RICHEMONT from CHF 144 to CHF 150. Buy. $CFR (-4.77%)
- BOFA upgrades HOCHTIEF from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 112 to EUR 140. $HOT (-1.43%)
- JPMORGAN raises target price for FEDEX from USD 350 to USD 366. Overweight. $FDX (-12.02%)
- JPMORGAN raises the price target for ROCHE from CHF 220 to CHF 230. Underweight. $ROG (-1.78%)
- UBS upgrades BMW from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 75 to EUR 83. $BMW (-2.73%)
- JEFFERIES raises target price for UNICREDIT from EUR 47 to EUR 49. Buy. $UCG (-6.48%)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 61 to EUR 52. Buy. $DHER (+0%)
- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VOLKSWAGEN VORZÜGE from EUR 110 to EUR 100. Overweight. $VOW (-2.95%)
- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for PORSCHE SE from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Underweight. $PAH3 (-1.68%)
- UBS downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 72 to EUR 55. $MBG (-2.59%)
- EXANE BNP downgrades HYPOPORT from Outperform to Neutral. $HYQ (+12.3%)
- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for IBU-TEC from EUR 12 to EUR 7.40. Hold. $IBU (-6.27%)
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades SYMRISE from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 122 to EUR 114. $SY1 (-1.13%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SANOFI from EUR 90 to EUR 85. Sell. $SAN (+0.84%)
- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 56 to EUR 45. Underweight. $AFX (-4.93%)
- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SARTORIUS from EUR 290 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SRT (-4.01%)
Companies that I find interesting but do not yet have in my portfolio and that have a 10-year average ROIC of over 10% and a 5-year average ROCE and ROIC of over 10%, $ANET, $MA (-3.47%) , $VRTX (-1.57%) , $RMS (-3.51%) , $PGHN (-4.91%) , $COLO B (-0.03%) , $ACN (-6.33%) , $MNST (-1.22%)
$FICO (-6.29%) , $MCO (-6.96%) , $KNIN (-6.45%) , $S&P Global, $ISRG (-2.41%)
$III (+2.07%) , $BKNG (-6.59%)
$HLAG (-6.94%) , $QCOM (-8.69%) , $CFR (-4.77%) and $IFX (-7.23%) . Already blatant companies
Would love some portfolio feedback!#portfoliocheck
The goal is to save +- 35 selected stocks evenly over the long term in order to build up a passive income with dividends.
As soon as $PAEM (-0.32%) has a positive return, it is sold and also reallocated to equities.
The following stocks will follow in the next few months:
Individual shares
Bonds, gold and a global ETF