When is ASML worth buying?

Reading time: approx. 7min

1) INTRODUCTION

$ASML is probably next to stocks like $NVDA or $SMCI is one of the stocks that everyone is talking about at the moment. Even the last supposed expert knows that ASML plays a key role in the production of modern chips. The enormous AI hype and the story of the quasi-monopolist for lithography systems have driven ASML's valuation to unimagined heights since 2023. Since the Q2 earnings on Wednesday, the share has been undergoing a correction and has lost almost 16% lost (As of: 20.07.). Is ASML now a buy or is it still too expensive?

2.) CURRENT SITUATION

Since the announcement of Q2 earnings and, in particular, the somewhat disappointing outlook for analysts, the share price has corrected significantly. Despite the correction in the share price, the share is still up almost 25% in the plus and has only just fallen to the price level of 2 months ago in May. This is mainly due to the fact that the share price has risen enormously, driven by the hype surrounding AI and chips.

This price increase was only partially underpinned by fundamental data, but was rather based on the great fantasy that ASML would probably be able to sell significantly more lithography systems in the future if so many modern chips of the smallest structure sizes were needed in the future. As a result, there has been a massive multiple expansion since mid-2022: the ratio of price to operating cash flow, for example, rose from just under 15 to a peak of 85. The ratio of enterprise value to EBIT (EV/EBIT) rose in the same period from around 27 to over 50 [1].

Due to the ongoing correction after earnings, price-to-OCF has "cheapened" to around 70 and EV/EBIT to around 45. Is ASML therefore worth buying for long-term investors or is it too expensive?

3.) THE PATH TO A FAIR PRICE

Looking at the development of ASML's operating cash flow in recent years, it is noticeable that it has fallen steadily from a peak during the coronavirus pandemic in 2021 to the present day: while OCF of a good EUR 11 billion was generated in 2021, it is now "only" a good EUR 5 billion:

This then also has an impact on the free cash flow because, as we all know, FCF is the operating cash flow less capital capital expenditures (CapEx). In addition, ASML has massively increased its expenditure on research and development in recent years, mainly through the development of the new lithography systems "High-NA" lithography systems, which are expected to generate even higher earnings than ASML's EUV platform, which is already the market leader. As a result, CapEx has risen massively in recent years: while around 8% of OCF was invested as CapEx in 2021, it is currently just under 40% [1]. As a result, the FCF has fallen by more than 70% from today has fallen.

As the new High-NA platform is now ready for the market and the first deliveries to customers have already been made [2], research and development expenditure is likely to fall back to a more normal level in the future.

The recovery of the FCF and future growth could therefore offer a good buying opportunity with the current price correction. However, despite the correction, ASML is still not cheaply valued on paper. To bring some light into the darkness, I have therefore tried to estimate the "fair price" of ASML on the basis of my valuation template [3],[4]. To do this, we need the following key data, among others:

• Sales growth
• EBITDA margin
• CapEx

sales growth

Analysts are currently forecasting sales growth of around 32% for the coming year [1]. ASML's historical long-term 5-year sales growth rates range between 13% and 19% [6]. In recent years, sales from services and maintenance in particular have also increased. This has a recurring share and increases with the number of lithography systems sold. In view of the historical growth rates and the outlook, I believe that ASML will achieve an annual growth rate of 14% over the next 10 years.

EBITDA margin

The EBITDA margin has ranged between 27% and 37% over the past 5 years, with the maximum during the coronavirus peak in 2021. The margin is currently around 33% [1]. This is also the long-term value that I expect ASML to achieve over the next 10 years.

CapEx

CapEx is currently particularly high due to the introduction of the new lithography systems. In the last 5 years, expenses have ranged between 4.8% and 8.0% of sales [1]. I think that in the next few years CapEx will return to a normal level (for ASML) of approx. 6.5% of sales over the next few years. I am deliberately not setting expenditure lower than this, because ASML will have to continue to invest heavily in the future in order to maintain its technological lead.

Miscellaneous

The tax rate was set at 4% of sales. In addition, I assume that ASML will pay approximately 0.9% of the outstanding shares in the future. This is essentially in line with historical data [1]. The risk free rate is conservatively set at around 6%.

ASML is currently trading at an FCF yield of approx. 0.9%. This reflects the current comparatively low FCF and the high market capitalization of ASML. I also assume that the FCF yield will stabilize in 10 years at approx. 4.0% in 10 years. The assumptions were of course made in good faith, but still contain enormous uncertainties. Let us therefore apply a margin of safety of 20% to the fair value, I arrive at a current fair price of around 1000€ per share.

4.) CONCLUSION

Despite all the (feigned) accuracy, this is of course also a subjective assessment on my part. A somewhat more conservative scenario with only 11% sales growth, 7% CapEx ratio and a low EBIT margin of 29% results in a fair price of only around 615€ per share. I am currently not invested in ASML, but have had the company on my watchlist for some time. Following the correction, the share has moved slightly higher on my list of potential buys. However, I will not rush to buy into falling prices.

What do you think of ASML? Do you have ASML shares in your portfolio? Which assumptions do you think are too optimistic or too conservative?

Stay tuned,

Yours Michael Scott

#asml
#analyse
#semiconductor

Sources:

[1] seekingAlpha: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ASML

[2] golem: https://www.golem.de/news/halbleiterfertigung-asml-liefert-zweites-belichtungssystem-fuer-high-na-euv-aus-2404-184319.html

[3] getquin (own contribution): https://getqu.in/rl57Yp/

[4] Google Docs (Spreedsheet): https://bit.ly/FCF_FairValue

[5] ASML IR: https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report

[6] Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/ASML/asml-holding/revenue

What the current week on the stock market has shown me

The current stock market week is not quite over yet, but we can already make some observations and draw some conclusions:

1) Prices can also fall!

Yes, prices do not only move in one direction; they can also fall. We have already seen in recent months that individual companies have been selectively punished after disappointing quarterly figures; see $NKE, $SBUX or $PATH. So far, the broad market has nevertheless continued to rise. This week shows that even the broad indices $IWDA or $VWRL can fall by several percent. The fact that top-heavy indices such as the NASDAQ 100 $QQQ can suffer daily losses of more than 3% is something that many people seem to be realizing only now. Not every 2% correction is a dip and has to be bought. We can see how quickly things can go down further.

2) Getquin symbolizes the whole drama

In recent weeks, there have been an increasing number of articles in which the author has expressed a supposed fearlessness about investing at the all-time high or overweighting individual stocks that are performing strongly. Personally, I find it unsurprising to read articles on the subject of $NVDA , $SMCI or most recently $DRO noticed. The motto "All-in Nvidia" or "Buy the Dip" was celebrated and now you can already see the first posts of the kind "Help I bought Nvidia at the ATH and don't know if I should sell". Above all, this shows that far too few people give sufficient thought to what will happen if a share falls by 10, 20 or even 30%. Far too few people think for themselves, develop a watertight investment thesis or think about the current meaningfulness of the valuation.

To be clear again: I have nothing against the companies mentioned, they are just an obvious example. Many people blindly chase after the current hot stocks and then justify it with empty phrases or talk about momentum. The fact that momentum can also go in the other direction is often forgotten.

3) Hype is and remains hype

In particular, sectors that have only known one direction in recent times are now particularly affected. Be it the chip sector or technology stocks in general. After every valuation was justified by the enormous growth forecast for 2027, we now seem to be facing at least the beginning of disillusionment. For the first time, people seem to be questioning what the supposed AI champions actually want to earn their money with in order to cover the enormous investment costs. Statements with this tenor from the earnings call of $GOOGL now also seem to be fueling doubts among investors.

Investing on the stock market is and remains psychology: shares that are currently doing well must continue to do well (recency bias) and what is being talked about the most is then directly the best investment. Prices are mainly made by people and people often follow the masses. It is and always will be important to think about your own investments independently of the general opinion and to act anti-cyclically. But that is easier said than done.

Stay tuned,

Yours Michael Scott

Company pension plans - capital leverage, compound interest effect and tax savings?

Like hopefully many of you, I have built up my retirement provision in various ways: B&H, GTAA, shares, precious metals, brokers, private pension insurance - and, to a small extent, a company pension scheme (bAV). I took a closer look at the latter recently and asked myself how much I actually want to pay in and for how long in order to get the most out of it. I'm not yet sure whether my calculations are correct, but in the end they could well mean a considerable(!) advantage over a normal broker ETF savings plan. So watch out!

The idea

I'll assume that you know the basics of the occupational pension scheme, I'll spare you that part here, everyone can read that and the many details for themselves on the Internet. However, the main feature of the occupational pension scheme is that payments are made from the gross salary. Up to 302€pM (as of 2024) are completely tax-free (approx. 50%), up to 604€pM are tax-free (approx. 25%). So I pay approx. 300€pM/600€pM into the occupational pension scheme, but I only have 150€pM (=300€x0.5)/ 375€pM (=150€+300€x0.75) less net. Or to put it another way: I pay 150€pM and save 300€pM. Sounds too good to be true? That's right. At least in part. Because in the payout phase, the state takes everything back, i.e. the taxes and social security contributions saved are deducted directly from the payout amount (deferred taxation).

But wait! The shrewd Getquinler suspects hidden possibilities here. If, in the end, only the SSV contributions saved have to be repaid, then this portion could be understood as an interest-free loan from the state for old-age provision. Capital leverage - I hear you tapsen!

Then there is the tax exemption on profits during the down payment phase. Compound interest effect - ick hör dir schneller loofen!

And don't forget: the tax relief in the payout phase (partial exemption, marginal tax rate, 50% tax exemption). Example: € 200,000 profit x 0.85 (15% partial exemption) x 0.5 (50% of profits tax-free) x 0.3 (tax rate) = € 25,500 in taxes, i.e. only 12.75% tax. Tax savings are still running!

Capital leverage, compound interest effect and tax savings - let's do the math and compare a standard broker savings plan with my occupational pension scheme.

My bAV

My occupational pension plan is from mylife (fondsrente), a net policy without commission via a fee-based advisor. The costs: 36€pa, 1% on each deposit amount, 0.2%pa on the fund assets. There are 200 ETFs/ funds to choose from, you can buy and sell them yourself via the online portal like a broker (once a month free of charge).

The assumptions

Let's take a middle-aged person who still has 20 years until retirement. She saves 150€pM or 375€pM from her net salary into an ACWI with an expected 7%pa return incl. TER. For the sake of simplicity, I leave the deposits constant. I also let this person spend the saver's lump sum on other investments (e.g. dividend shares). I also assume that the capital is paid out in full at retirement, so that all applicable taxes can be taken into account. I create the calculations with https://www.zinsen-berechnen.de/ and https://www.finanzfluss.de/rechner/sparrechner/ Of course, everyone can adapt the calculations to their own circumstances.

The comparison

Scenario 1: 150€ savings rate

bAV (€150 net deposit):

Deposits 2024-2044 (240 installments of €300 each/ net: €150): €72,000

Savings capital: €149,700

bAV costs: 36€x20 + 1% of 72,000€ + 0.2% TER = 4900€

Gross capital: €144,800

Taxes on lump-sum settlement 2044:

50% of contribution share (€72,000) = €36,000

13% of income share (€72,800) = €9,500

Net capital: €99,300

Broker:

Deposits: 240 installments of €150 each: 36.000€

Broker costs: -

Interest income: €42,100

Taxes (incl. 30% partial exemption, capital gains tax, without lump sum): 7.800€

Net capital: €70,300

Advantage bAV: €29,000 (+41%)

Scenario 2: €375 savings rate

bAV (€375 net deposit):

Deposits 2024-2044 (240 installments á 600€/ net: 375€): 144.000€

Savings capital: €306,400

bAV costs: 36€x20 + 1% of 144,000€ + 0.2% TER = 9,200€

Gross capital: €297,200

Taxes on lump-sum settlement 2044:

37.5% of contribution share (€144,000) = €54,000

13% of income share (€153,200) = €18,400

Net capital: € 224,800

Broker:

Deposits: 240 installments á 375€: 90.000€

Broker costs: -

Interest income: € 105,400

Taxes (incl. 30% partial exemption, capital gains tax, without lump sum): 19.400€

Net capital: €175,900

Advantage bAV: €48,900

Conclusion

With 150€pM savings rate in 20 years with ACWI after all costs a capital of almost 100,000€ and thus almost 30,000€ more than with a broker savings plan? With a savings rate of €375pM, almost a quarter of a million by the time you retire? You'd have to do the math with 10%pa! The advantage of the occupational pension plan quickly goes into the six-figure range. I would say that this compensates for some of the undeniable disadvantages of the occupational pension scheme: Employer-linked, payment option only on retirement, dependence on insurance.

I have never seen a comparative calculation like the one I have made here. You probably haven't either. Why not? The reasons are, in my opinion, 1. that most ETF savers are not interested in such things as occupational pension schemes, especially as most occupational pension schemes have some kind of contribution guarantees without ETF choice and with horrendous commissions. And secondly, most people who are interested in occupational pension schemes only want to take the measly employer contributions, but are otherwise not interested in investing in the occupational pension scheme. Very few employers are also not interested in the investment options within the occupational pension scheme, which they only offer out of obligation and installed at some point 20 years ago. And thirdly, the variant with lump-sum settlement calculated here is unattractive for the insurance companies, who like to advertise with a guaranteed pension and its allowances. But which Getquin investor wants a "guaranteed annuity" of approx. 3%pa, where the remaining capital in the event of death goes completely to the insurance company?

So my calculation above completely misses the intentions of the inventors and the usual players in occupational pension schemes. Perhaps this is why the capital leverage, compound interest effect and tax savings of occupational pension schemes have so far been a blind spot on the investment map (and will remain one as soon as this article has disappeared into the infinite depths of the Getquin archive).

But perhaps I have made a mistake somewhere? If so, I would be grateful if someone could point it out to me. Because if not, I would probably soon increase my net savings rate in the occupational pension scheme to the maximum subsidy amount of €375pM, make full use of the capital leverage and make my occupational pension scheme a serious part of my investment strategy (and with GTAA and a bit of luck, collect an additional half a million in about 20 years).

So: if you are not yet taking advantage of these occupational pension opportunities - where is the fault: with me, with your boss or with you? I'm curious.

Your Epi

Edit: Please also note the 2nd part on occupational pension schemes, in which I have corrected important errors in this article.

How quickly to restructure?

Anyone who has been following my story on getquin may know that I am currently increasing my monthly savings rate to 5k. What am I using to top up? With the equity that I originally saved for the purchase of a property in mostly safe investments. However, as I have decided not to buy a property for my own use, the equity is gradually being transferred to my ETF portfolio.

I started this in 2022, which would have been a good time to simply invest everything in ETFs in one go. But I didn't. And the shifting is slowly taking too long for me. But I'm also reluctant to switch everything at once given the current hot markets. I'm therefore wondering whether I should increase my monthly savings rate to 6-10k. And I would be interested in your opinion.

Briefly about the facts:

• Current available capital to be reallocated: 150,000 euros
• Of which approx. 120,000 in fixed-term deposits (maturing this year), call money and $XEON
• Of which approx. 30,000 in higher-yielding investments (P2P and managed funds)
• If I were to reallocate everything immediately, this would not quite double my current ETF portfolio
• The remaining real estate equity makes up approx. 25% of my total assets, if that should play a role (ETF, crypto, Riester, emergency savings, current account, building society savings, ...)

Otherwise possibly still relevant:

• Major expenses in the lower 5-digit range are due in 2025
• A move to a more expensive apartment is on the cards in the next 0-4 years
• If I continue at the current pace, I will probably need 4-5 years until I have completely restructured my savings

Let me know your opinion in the comments or vote:

😭 Stay at 5k

😂 Increase to 6-7k

👍 Increase to 7-8k

♥️ Increase to 8-9k

🚀 Increase to 10k

🆘 Shift everything at once

PS: I know, time in the market beats timing the market. The screenshot is just there to attract attention. And this post will be deleted in a few days.

$BTC - A perfect control loop🔄️

What always fascinates me about Bitcoin is the fact that it is a completely self-regulating system that works through a multitude of interlocking control loops. You could say it's a masterpiece of engineering.

This relates to various technical and economic aspects of Bitcoin, which I would like to briefly explain below:

1. mining and difficulty

One of the most fundamental control loops in Bitcoin is mining and the associated difficulty.

-> Bitcoin price rises:

When the price of Bitcoin rises, mining becomes more attractive as the yield in the form of block rewards and transaction fees becomes more valuable.

-> Hashrate increases:

More miners join the network, which leads to an increase in the hashrate (total computing power in the network).

-> Increased level of difficulty:

To ensure that blocks continue to be generated on average every 10 minutes or so, the mining difficulty adjusts to the current hashrate every 2016 blocks (approximately every two weeks). The higher the hashrate, the more difficult it will be to find a valid block.

-> Exit of unprofitable miners:

If the difficulty level becomes too high, the most inefficient/unprofitable miners will have difficulties and will inevitably leave the network at some point.

-> Decreasing hashrate:

This leads to a decrease in the hashrate and a subsequent downward adjustment of the difficulty level, making mining more profitable again for the remaining miners.

This cycle ensures that the network remains stable and blocks are generated consistently, regardless of short-term fluctuations in miner activity.

2. efficiency and renewable energies

This point is actually part of point 1, but is so often misunderstood that I thought I would make it a separate point.

-> Efficient miners:

Only the most efficient miners who use the cheapest electricity can operate profitably in the long term.

-> Cheap electricity:

The cheapest electricity often comes from overproduced electricity from renewable energies such as solar and wind power.

-> Promotion of renewable energies:

The demand for cheap electricity can lead to more investment in renewable energy sources to meet this demand. This leads to the promotion and further development of renewable energies.

Through this mechanism, Bitcoin indirectly contributes to the promotion of renewable energy by additionally monetizing the use of overproduced green electricity and driving efficiency in energy use. As a result, Bitcoin's energy mix is constantly becoming "greener" all by itself, without the need for any regulation from politicians, as can be seen in the following link:

https://woocharts.com/esg-bitcoin-mining-sustainability/

3rd block reward and halving events

Another central control loop is the regular halving of the block reward, the so-called halving events.

-> Block reward:

Miners receive a certain amount of Bitcoin (currently 3.125) as a reward for adding a new block to the blockchain. This reward is halved approximately every four years, more precisely every 210,000 blocks.

-> Less new Bitcoin on the market:

Halving reduces the number of new Bitcoin in circulation, which lowers the inflation rate of Bitcoin.

-> Rising price:

A lower supply with constant or increasing demand tends to lead to a price increase.

-> Media attention:

Halving draws additional media attention to Bitcoin every 4 years, which increases demand.

Interesting side fact: The Bitcoin Halving always takes place every 4 years and, interestingly, always in the US election year. When a new president comes in, there is usually a lot of investment, which means: "We print a lot of money to stimulate the economy". Accordingly, Bitcoin, as an absolutely scarce commodity, always encounters a rising amount of US dollars. (The question I ask myself is whether Satoshi Nakamoto also thought of something like this, or whether Rainer Zufall was at work here🤔)

These halvings are an integral part of the Bitcoin protocol and are the reason for Bitcoin's absolute scarcity of just under 21 million units, which can be mined until the year 2140.

4 Transaction fees and network usage

The dynamic between transaction fees and the use of the Bitcoin network is another important control loop that is always underestimated by many.

-> High transaction volume:

When many transactions take place on the network, transaction fees increase as users are willing to pay more to have their transactions prioritized and thus be included in a block faster.

-> Higher fees:

Miners naturally prioritize transactions with higher fees, which leads to faster confirmations of these transactions.

-> Network utilization:

High network utilization and correspondingly high fees lead to fewer transactions being carried out and people switching to 2nd-layer technologies such as the Lightning Network to save on fees.

-> Fees decrease:

This in turn leads to lower fees on the main layer, which in turn leads to more transactions being carried out on the main layer.

This mechanism helps to use the network efficiently and to control the prioritization of transactions.

5 Ecosystem development and adoption

The technological development and adoption of Bitcoin form a further control loop that promotes the growth and stability of the network.

-> Technological development:

Improvements in the Bitcoin ecosystem and infrastructure (such as better wallets, more secure exchanges and more efficient payment processors) make Bitcoin safer and easier to use.

-> Increasing adoption:

More businesses and individuals are adopting Bitcoin, increasing demand.

-> Price increase:

As demand increases, so does the price of Bitcoin, which in turn attracts more interest and investment.

-> Infrastructure investments:

A higher price and increasing usage leads to more investment in infrastructure, which in turn drives further adoption.

This positive feedback loop ensures that Bitcoin continues to grow and develop.

6 Market psychology and volatility

Market psychology and the volatility of Bitcoin also go hand in hand and form an important control loop. Humans are always driven by fear and greed, which has also been demonstrated time and again in Bitcoin's market movements in the individual cycles.

-> Price increase:

When the price of Bitcoin rises, this often attracts more attention and speculation.

-> Market psychology:

The increased attention and hype leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), which in turn leads to further price increases. Then the price rises because the price rises.

-> Corrective movements:

Extreme price rises often lead to market overheating, followed by corrections as investors realize gains or panic sell. Greed then turns to fear and people leave the market as quickly as they entered it.

-> Stabilization:

After a correction, the market can stabilize until a new market cycle begins.

7 Regulatory differences and global adjustment

The regulatory differences at a global level are also interesting.

-> Strict regulations:

If a country introduces strict regulations or bans, miners and investors may be forced to move to other, friendlier jurisdictions.

-> New opportunities:

Countries that are open to new technologies take advantage of these opportunities to profit from the migration of miners and investors from restrictive countries. A prominent example is the relocation of Bitcoin mining from China to the USA following the Chinese ban. The miners are no longer computer nerds in the basement - they are professional companies that generate profits and pay taxes.

-> Competitiveness:

Countries with favorable regulatory frameworks and lower energy costs attract miners, which strengthens their economic competitiveness in the technology sector.

-> Promotion of innovation:

This dynamic encourages innovation and investment in countries that support Bitcoin, leading to global competition for the best framework conditions for these technologies.

This feedback loop shows how the global landscape of Bitcoin usage and mining is constantly adapting to regulatory changes, opening up opportunities for economic growth and technological development.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin ecosystem is full of self-regulating loops that contribute to the stability and robustness of the network. These mechanisms ensure that Bitcoin functions and grows not only as a store of value or digital currency, but also as a technological and economic system. By forcing miners to be as efficient as possible and to use cheap, often renewable electricity, Bitcoin also contributes to the promotion of sustainable energy sources. Furthermore, adapting to different regulatory frameworks shows how dynamic and resilient the Bitcoin ecosystem really is.

I would of course be delighted if a few of you read my post and add your two cents.

Feel free to leave a Like👍 if you are interested in such (somewhat longer) posts, then I will post something like this more often or alternatively leave a 🆘 if you are not interested in this content at all and you think to yourself "What was he actually smoking🚬".

Your Burner

(Sorry, I couldn't resist the joke😂)

#bitcoin

*Interest rate cuts the death knell for our portfolio

I don't want to beat around the bush, the past has shown that after the first interest rate cut, statistically after 195 days the low of the "correction" on average of 23,5 % was formed.

How are you preparing for it? What is your exit strategy?

My thoughts on this:

• Keep an eye on GDP, inflation data, unemployment numbers to spot recession
• If first rate cut comes in September then:
• Most of the portfolio will be sold at the beginning - middle of December.
• Watch further and then gradually get out of the market by March

Crypto:

I am very concerned that this will also cause major problems in the crypto sector and that the bull run could suffer massively.....

What is decisive?

Soft-landing or recession... That is the crucial question in the whole affair!!!!

What is your opinion?

Company pension scheme part 2: stillborn?

First of all, thank you for all the positive feedback and helpful comments on my last post. In particular, the comments from @Dr27589 pointed out significant errors and blind spots in my calculations. I would now like to correct them.

My errors - and a correction

1. taxes: I assumed that the rules for private pension insurance would apply when taxing the payout capital. But that is wrong! The capital of the occupational pension scheme is taxed at the personal income tax rate of the year of payment (other income). It is not entirely clear where this will stand with a payout of €200,000. There is currently still the "fifth rule", i.e. the capital income is spread over 5 years, so that €40,000 pa of additional income is taxable. The top tax rate is currently 42%, the marginal tax rate for senior citizens is probably 30%. And nobody knows what it will be in 2044 anyway. I'm going to assume a low 30%, which would be €12,000 pa for 5 years or a total of €60,000 on an income of €200,000.

2. social security contributions: I also assumed that you only have to pay back the social security contributions saved (15% GKV + 3% PV). Fiddlesticks. The 18% SV contributions are credited to the entire payout capital - including the capital gains! The sum of the payout capital is divided over 10 years / 120 months, the social security contributions are calculated on these 120 months and then debited from the account on a monthly basis. According to the Test.de calculator, this would be €300pM SV contributions for 10 years for a payout of €200,000, i.e. a total of €36,000.

3. pension points: The loss of pension entitlements due to the "detour" of pension contributions to the occupational pension scheme is greater than I initially thought. The online calculator predicts a loss of €80pM for a deposit of €300pM over 20 years. Calculated over 20 years of retirement, that's just under €20,000.

4. not a mistake, but I want to say it again. There are allowances in the payout phase on which you don't have to pay taxes or social security contributions. They should be around €300 per month in 2044. However, the prerequisite for this is the decision to opt for a guaranteed pension. This means that you transfer your entire capital to the insurance company, which then pays a monthly pension, i.e. approx. 3%pa on the initial capital. So you have to become Metusalem in a world without inflation for this to be worthwhile. Inheritance is not. An absolute dealbreaker and not recommended.

The corrected calculations

bAV 300€pM gross/ 150€ net:

Payments in 2024-44: €72,000

Savings capital at 7%pa: €149,700

bAV costs: €4,900

Taxes (30%): €43,400

SI contributions (according to calculator): 140€pM = 16,800€ (10 years)

Loss of pension entitlements (according to calculator): 80€pM = 19.200€ (20 years)

Final sum: 65.400€

vs. broker (150€pM, 7%): 70.300€.

bAV 600€pM gross/ 300€pM net

(I'll keep it short)

Final sum: 151.200€

vs. broker (300€pM, 7%): 175.900€.

Conclusion

My dear Scholli! I would never have thought that our state would devise such a devious system behind a wall of complicated rules to fleece its citizens. In fact, the state lets the capital lever and the compound interest effect work against the occupational pension saver, so that all the positive effects are lost.

So even with a very favorable occupational pension scheme, maximum state subsidies and a dream return of 7%pa, after 20 years you end up with massive losses compared to a broker savings plan ACWI. Most of you will probably be in an even worse position. So if you don't have a company that sinks its money into your occupational pension, you'd be better off investing your money elsewhere. I will probably do the same.

Ciao, dear capital leverage, interest effect and tax savings! I'll look for you somewhere else! I'll let you know when I've found something. Next stop probably my private pension insurance. 🫣

Your Epi

Since Apr. 2022, nice innovation in the profile data.

How long have you been on getquin? And how did you discover getquin?

I wouldn't have been able to estimate it myself, time flies by. ⏱️ I came across getquin via an Instagram ad.

MILESTONE REACHED!

Hello dear community,

2,000€ have been reached!

I am aware that this sum is not really something special for most people.

I'm currently in my apprenticeship (trade) and manage to invest around €100 a month. I built up this sum myself right from the start.

At the beginning I had to pay a bit of a learning curve (around €200) because I thought I could beat the market with the help of penny stocks. Now I'm pursuing a passive strategy, which I want to continue until I retire. I also have a fraction of bitcoin on my hardware wallet.

This post should serve as motivation to push the real, in the truest sense of the word, "small investors". Keep going!

Best regards!

$$DRO has published its quarterly results.

Not until August, my ass.

(Surprise, small caps like to do that)

Here are the most important points:

1H24 SaaS revenues of $1.3 million, up 93% vs 1H23 ($663k) - Positive

Cash balance of $146 million - no change.

Now comes the part that most people will pounce on:

2x increase in pipeline since March 31, 2024 to $1.1 billion. - Talk from the sales handbook, then the following point, which underpins my exit:

$28 million contracted backlog - Valued last week at just under A$2 billion but an effective backlog of A$28 million, around 17 million euros.

https://www.droneshield.com/investor-relations

Come on guys, nobody here has noticed that the figures have already been published today?