https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/effetto-conti-lusso-parigi-tonfo-kering-ed-hermes-AItitzVC

$MONC (+2.78%)
$BCUCY (+2.04%)
$BOSS (+1.92%)
$KER (+3.34%)
$MC (+1.74%)

Today I am analyzing three major luxury goods stocks following weak quarterly figures: Hermès, LVMH and Kering. All three shares have recently come under heavy pressure.

👜 Hermès analysis

Hermès reported sales growth of just 1.4%. Adjusted for currency effects, growth amounted to 5.6%; 7.1% had been expected. The regional picture was mixed: Asia +2%; USA +17% and therefore very strong.

The share fell by 15% at times and is now trading around 27.5% below fair value. At the same time, it is around 48% below its all-time high.

The range between EUR 1,350 and EUR 1,650 appears interesting from a technical perspective.

👠 Kering analysis Kering published a profit warning for the first half of the year of -40 to -45%. Gucci, which contributes around 45% to sales and is particularly weak in Asia, remains a particular burden.

The share is trading only slightly below fair value, while the fundamentals have clearly deteriorated in recent years. I believe a further decline of around 20% towards EUR 190 is possible.

💼 LVMH analysis LVMH reported the seventh consecutive quarter of declining sales in the key Fashion & Leather Goods segment; most recently -2%. Although the jewelry segment grew by 7%, it only accounts for around 12% of sales.

LVMH has a broad regional base: Asia, Europe and the USA each contribute around 25%. However, no region is currently providing clear growth impetus. On the chart, the share is just above EUR 440. A further decline of up to 25% remains possible.

The 10-year comparison:

• Hermès +120%
• LVMH +10%
• Kering -60%

⚠️ Conclusion Hermès looks the most exciting after the setback. LVMH remains neutral, while Kering continues to present the weakest fundamental picture. What would be your favorite in the current environment? $RMS (+4.95%) , $MC (+1.74%) or would it be $KER (+3.34%) ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO5tzq1dBCA

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$2330
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The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (-0.59%) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (+2.02%)
• Barclays - $BARC (+3.27%)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (+2.81%)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (+2.53%)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (+4.55%)
• BBVA - $BBVA (+4.08%)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (+3.47%)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (+0.81%)
• Citigroup - $C (+2.3%)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (+4.14%) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (+4.95%) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (+4.41%)
• Swatch - $UHR (+4.01%)
• LVMH - $MC (+1.74%)
• Hermès - $RMS (+4.95%)
• Kering - $KER (+3.34%)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (+4.19%)
• Moncler - $MONC (+2.78%)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (+5.43%)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (+1.58%)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (-2.29%)
• RTX - $RTX (+0.66%)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-3.82%)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (+1.47%)
• Leonardo - $LDO (-0.96%)
• Renk - $R3NK (+3.02%)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-0.09%)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (-2.46%)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (+2.96%)
• Torm - $TRMD A (+1.34%)
• Frontline - $FRO (+6.63%)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (-0.9%)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (+0.39%)
• Northern Star - $NST (-0.09%)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (+1.17%)
$GOLD
$GOLD (+2.65%)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

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Dear Community,

After reading all the posts with great enthusiasm, I would like to hear your opinion on my portfolio today.

A few words about me:

I am 27 years old and bought my first share around 2019. Since then, I've unfortunately made a few mistakes and made a mistake ($KER (+3.34%) , $NOVO B (-0.59%) , $PUM (+2.1%) ). At that time, I unfortunately always had the approach that if it had fallen sharply, it had to go up again at some point...

That's why I've now increased my ETF holdings somewhat. The idea is to build up the portfolio mainly with ETFs and to improve the return with a few shares. However, I'm not really satisfied with the return yet...

I currently invest €3100 a month together with my partner, mainly in the $IWDA (+1.24%) and $VWCE (+1.4%) .

500€ flow into $BTC (-0.59%) .

I am looking forward to your opinion.

P.s.: I am aware that the stocks in the MSCI world, ftse world and s&p are duplicated. There are historical reasons why they are in my portfolio and they don't bother me at the moment.

While all about $MC (+1.74%) and $RMS (+4.95%) one share is flying under the radar of many investors: Prada $1913 (-0.67%) . Thanks to Miu Miu, the company is growing despite the recessionary environment. In recent years, it has achieved 17 % sales growth per year - the best figure in the industry.

Basics about Prada

The Italian fashion group is listed in Hong Kong - which could also be a reason for its favorable valuation. In addition to Miu Miu and Prada, the company also owns other brands. However, these are not relevant for sales. Prada currently accounts for 67% of sales and Miu Miu for a further 32%.

Most of the items are produced in Italy. A small proportion is produced by "selected producers" - a paraphrase for production in low-wage countries such as China. This is the first potential risk for Prada. Made in Italy is probably the most important figurehead, together with the brand history.

The rise of Miu Miu

The brand is the reason for Prada's strong growth. It originates from Prada itself and has been experiencing a sustained boom for years. While it still accounted for 15% of sales in 2018, it now accounts for 32% - and the trend continues to rise. The larger the share of total sales, the greater the impact of Miu Miu's growth on the Group as a whole.

The combination of Prada and Miu Miu is exciting, as Prada can focus on classic and timeless fashion, while Miu Miu is more in tune with the times. The clear demarcation ensures that each brand can remain true to its target group.

This clear brand identity is important for the long-term relevance of a brand. Gucci and Louis Vuitton have been less loyal to their core customers in recent years and have sacrificed long-term brand identity for short-term growth.

Additional growth through the Versace takeover

Even though the management ruled out becoming a fashion holding company similar to LVMH some time ago, Prada took over the Italian fashion label Versace from Capri Holdings this year. $CPRI (+5.59%) The Versace takeover is to be completed by the end of 2025. Prada paid 1.25 billion euros for the struggling luxury company. The expected Versace turnover for 2025 was 810 million euros. The favorable purchase price is due to the fact that Versace is not profitable and its turnover shrank by around 20% in the previous year.

Versace has become too mainstream in recent years and, like Gucci (part of: $KER (+3.34%) ), has lost its core clientele. Prada now has the task of returning the company to its roots. In the valuation, I therefore assume that Versace will be slimmed down by 20%. More on this in a moment. Versace is a bargain overall - but only if Prada manages to bring Versace back to its roots.

Competition

In order to better assess the current valuation multiple, I have compared Prada with its most important competitors.

It is immediately apparent that the EBIT margin of 24% is significantly lower than that of Hermès or $MONC (+2.78%) . This justifies a certain valuation discount - but However, with an EV/EBITDA of 10, Prada is worth around two thirds of Hermès. The multiples are also falling further due to the strong growth.

Prada is currently valued similarly to LVMH, but the valuation is falling much faster. There is also a 3.1% dividend yield. The debt is conservative at 1.25 net debt/EBITDA.

Valuation

The Prada brand is growing organically only slightly. Future growth depends heavily on Miu Miu. I have created a multiple valuation model to better estimate the influence of Miu Miu and Versace.

My assumptions:

• Miu Miu's growth is leveling off. Growth is expected to fall to 8% per year by 2029.
• The other brands will grow organically by 2% in line with inflation.
• Profitability will decrease due to Versace, but will recover within the next five years.
• Versace sales decline by 20% due to efficiency measures and artificial scarcity.

I am also of the opinion that the valuation multiple is currently too low. is currently too low. The industry is in crisis and is punishing Prada as well. In addition, the EBIT margin is currently lower. I have therefore created a conservative estimate with a constant multiple and a (for me) realistic model with a multiple increase from 11 to 14.

With multiple increase

Without multiple increase

Even without the increase in the multiple, Prada currently looks attractive. The expected return together with the products make Prada the best luxury stock in my eyes!

Note: The article contains my personal opinion and is not investment advice! The share is in my personal portfolio.

ps: this is my first post. Leave some love or constructive feedback there😘

$KER (+3.34%) I close position in Kering at 322.05€.

$KER (+3.34%)
$OR (+1.65%)

I have decided to sell my $KER (+3.34%) -shares. The position has been clearly in the red for some time and I am no longer convinced by the fundamental development. The problems at Gucci in particular are weighing on the outlook and make $KER (+3.34%) currently more of a risky turnaround bet. Instead of tying up capital in an unclear recovery, I would like to deploy it more efficiently. My focus is now on stocks with more stable fundamentals and better prospects: value and dividend stocks such as $ALV (+1%) or $ZURN (+0.53%) as well as growth stocks in areas such as cloud, cybersecurity or AI, such as $CRWD (+1.54%) . A global ETF such as $VWRL (+1.27%) remains interesting for broad hedging.

👉 What would you invest the freed-up capital in?