AI - danger or opportunity for Monday.com?
At USD 1.09 per share, Q2 earnings were well above expectations of USD 0.84. With sales of USD 299 million, analysts' estimates of USD 293 million were also exceeded.
For the year as a whole, this corresponds to a 27% increase in sales and a 16% jump in profits.
Free cash flow improved by 26% to USD 64.1 million.
Strong customer loyalty
The net dollar retention rate was 111 %, which means that existing customers are constantly expanding their business with Monday.com.
The Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) is a measure of how much revenue a company generates from existing customers compared to the previous year - in this case 11 % more.
Furthermore, the net dollar retention rate is even higher for larger customers. Customers with more than 10 users have an NDR of 115%, customers with more than USD 50,000 ARR have an NDR of 116% and customers with more than USD 100,000 ARR have an NDR of 117%.
ARR in this case refers to the recurring revenue that Monday.com generates with the respective customers.
This is all the more pleasing as the area with major customers is also by far the fastest growing. The number of customers with an ARR of over USD 50,000 increased by 36% to 3,702 over the course of the year.
For customers with an ARR of over USD 100,000, the increase was as high as 46% to 1,472.
Outlook and valuation
One of the few fly in the ointment is the "disappointing" outlook for the coming quarter, for which Monday.com is forecasting sales of USD 311 - 313 and an operating margin of 11 - 12 %.
Previously, sales of USD 313m and an operating margin of 12% were expected.
In my view, this makes it difficult to justify the fall in the share price. This impression is reinforced if you take a closer look at what Monday.com has forecast for the following quarter in the past.
At the end of the first quarter, for example, the company forecast sales of USD 292 - 294 million for the quarter just ended and ended up delivering USD 299 million.
At the same time, Monday.com raised its forecast for the operating result this year from USD 144 - 150 million to USD 154 - 158 million.
The forecast for free cash flow was raised from USD 310 - 316 million to USD 320 - 326 million.
Call me old-fashioned if you like, but the full-year result is more important to me than a single quarter.
With a forward P/FCF of 28.4, Monday.com is certainly not a classic bargain, but the stock has never been valued anywhere near this low since the IPO.
Perhaps this would be the right time to set an example and decide to buy back shares, as Monday.com currently has cash reserves of USD 1.59 billion.
This corresponds to almost a fifth of the market capitalization. Monday could therefore afford extensive share buybacks, which in turn would sustainably increase earnings per share
Monday.com share: Chart from 13.08.2025, price: USD 172.15 - symbol: MNDY | Source: TWS
From a technical perspective, the situation is difficult. The long-term Aufwärtstrend has been broken.
From the bulls' point of view, the share must return above USD 180 as quickly as possible. If this succeeds, the situation would ease for the time being. However, clearly positive signals will only emerge above USD 200 and USD 225.
If it fails to return above USD 180, the losses can be expected to extend in the direction of USD 150 - 158
