I've been investing for about ten years now and to be honest I just don't feel like it anymore

In the beginning it all went quite well with a classic ETF savings plan, little stress, just let it run and that worked, I was happy with it

At some point, however, I thought I needed to get more out of it and started experimenting with individual stocks, taking more risk here and there and yes, at some point I ended up with altcoins, which in retrospect was probably not such a good idea

Since then I've somehow completely lost my way my internal rate of return is currently around minus 14% so I've been investing for ten years and in the end I have less than I put in - you have to manage that first

What annoys me the most is not just the money but this feeling that I fucked it up myself, made bad decisions, was too greedy, wasn't consistent enough or just tried too much

In the meantime, the whole thing just isn't fun anymore, it doesn't feel like investing but more like gambling and that's exactly how it works.

I'm really thinking about selling everything and just quitting and leaving it all behind me.

Has anyone here ever felt the same way or am I simply unsuitable for it?

It's great to see what's happening with the retirement savings scheme. Finally something that really feels like progress and not like the umpteenth half-hearted solution from politicians, even if it comes 10 years too late.

Compared to a normal custody account or simply leaving money in an account, the custody account makes a difference.

In short: This is a state-subsidized custody account in which you invest money (gross), even as a self-employed person, and receive tax benefits in return, which means that you end up with more left over for yourself by investing pre-tax (gross) and receiving a state subsidy!

Subsidies:

- For deposits of up to 360 euros per year, the state subsidy is 50 cents for every euro deposited, i.e. a maximum of 180 euros per year.

- For deposits between €360 and €1,800 per year, the state subsidy is 25 cents for every euro paid in, i.e. a maximum of a further €360 per year.

+Subsidies/supplements for children

Especially if you think about simply putting in €150 a month (maximum subsidy) or filling up the €1,800 once a year (directly in January), you'll add up to a brutal amount over the years.

You have to be honest: you haven't seen anything like this from politicians for a long time.

But as always, in the end it's the costs that decide whether it's really worth it.

Example result for JG 2003, and 180EUR per month. You can also play around with Scalalbe: https://de.scalable.capital/en/retirement-account?fbclid=PAZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQPNTY3MDY3MzQzMzUyNDI3AAGnvCANxIg1t8QwbSAfc9Yo0wIDheuewP6nJMOHlivlPOflIBUGUutfGIRrZe4_aem_lrZx8swAdYWSSoJXin_agg

If the framework conditions remain the same, I would take the maximum subsidy, and I assume that the neobrokers will charge very good fees on the market.

As I think this scenario is only a few days away (the Easter weekend would be predestined for this as the stock exchanges in the USA are closed on Good Friday and that is also when the ultimatum ends), it should be addressed. In my view, the deployment of ground troops would destroy all chances of a ceasefire. Even just trying to occupy Khargh would lead to a massive expansion of Iranian attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East.

But I think the most underestimated player in a further escalation with ground troops would be the Huthi militia, which has announced that it would go to war with all its might in that case. This would mean that the USA and Israel would have a new opponent that is many times stronger than Hamas or Hezbollah. They have the opportunity to shut down access to the Red Sea and thus to the Suez Canal. This would also close the only alternative route for the Strait of Hormuz. The consequences for oil prices? We will see prices of at least 150 dollars within a few days. We would see an acceleration of the downward trend on the stock markets and, in view of the medium-term economic outlook due to massive inflation and interest rate rises, this unnecessary war in violation of international law may even lead the stock markets into a longer-term bear market.

Unfortunately, I don't see anyone who can stop the two warmongers Trump and Netanyahu. So we have no choice but to position ourselves accordingly.

March was a hot month in the world, on vacation in Thailand and at 3xGTAA! Here is the report:

Asset-Performances 03/26 (27.2-30.3.)

3xEU50: -28.0%

3xGLD: -37.1%

2xWTI: +82.0%

3xGTAA Depot

27.02.26: 128.040€

30.03.26: 143.730€

Wikifolio certificate

27.02.26: 197,22€

30.03.26: € 224.87 (mid-price)

Month: +14.0%

YTD: +37.8%

Review 03/26

March was an extreme month for 3xGTAA. The war in Iran has shaken up the markets and continues to do so. The stock markets fell sharply, which was to be expected. It was less expected that the crisis currency gold would fall even more. On the other hand, WTI was able to rise so significantly that it more than compensated for the price losses of the EU50 and GLD and led to a successful month overall. A wonderful example of the power of a portfolio with uncorrelated asset classes! Due to the significant imbalances in the portfolio in the meantime, a new rule for intra-month semi rebalancing was introduced. More on this in the workshop report.

Outlook 04/26

The current developments on the markets have basically pushed all risk assets except commodities below their signal lines. Gold is still trading just above, oil well above. The crisis currency USD has thus moved into third place (ahead of short EU Gov Bonds).

The allocation for 4/26 is therefore:

2xWTI

3xGLD

5xUSDEUR

The model has now fully switched to crisis mode. This is another advantage of momentum models such as 3xGTAA: they can be used to make money in a wide range of scenarios. While equity portfolios suffer in uncertain times, (well-balanced) momentum models can still go up (of course only with probability and without guarantee!).

Report from the 3xGTAA workshop - New risk reduction rule

As indicated above, there were two occasions in March when an asset (WTI) reached a weighting of around 50% in the portfolio. The problem with this is that it contradicts a basic idea of 3xGTAA: risk parity.

The different leverages of the assets held (e.g. 2xWTI, 3xGLD, 3xEU50, 5xUSDEUR) result from the fact that each asset contributes the same risk to the portfolio. The prerequisite for this, however, is that the assets are equally weighted. If one asset makes up 50% of the portfolio and the other two only around 25% each, then it contributes disproportionately to the overall risk. So in order to stay true to the basic idea of 3xGTAA, I have decided to introduce an additional rule that will be applied from now on: "As soon as an asset reaches a weighting of approx. 50%, it will be reduced to approx. 40%. The income is held in cash until the end of the month and reinvested normally at the next signal."

Why exactly this rule? I have not done a concrete backtest with this rule, unfortunately I don't have the day-to-day data. The basis is an attempt to find a sensible middle ground between the initial weighting of 33% and the extreme weighting of 50% (which is around 40%). The cash is not reinvested directly because the other assets naturally have a strong downward momentum in this situation. Apart from reducing the portfolio volatility or the effective leverage contribution of the assets, the rule should not have any significant impact on the model.

I assume that the application of this risk reduction rule will remain an exception anyway. But fundamentally it remains the same: GTAA is a process, not an outcome. The model is fixed in its general principles and concrete rules. However, if there are situations in which there is a contradiction between the two, the principles must be clearly formulated once again and the rules adjusted accordingly. This is how every rule-based system works if it is not to become rigid and one day break down in the face of reality.

And one more thing: you can see from these situations and considerations that 3xGTAA is more than just a clever momentum model in a wikifolio wrapper. It is basically an economic-philosophical project that has set out to counter the efficient market hypothesis with an inefficient market hypothesis. And the latter must be prepared to adapt to the realities of the market without falling into the traps of behavioral finance. For this reason, 3xGTAA will always remain a process.

And now may the momentum be with you!

Your Epi

https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa

$DE000LS9U6W1 (+4.07%)

Hey everyone,

Here is my latest analysis of the Bitcoin chart. I have deliberately simplified it so that both newcomers and the more experienced among you can take something away from it.

First of all, sorry for the delay. I am currently struggling with health challenges and an upcoming operation, which is why I am dependent on strong medication in order to be able to concentrate on my work at all. Nevertheless, it was important to me to get this ready for you.

💡 My wish & "payment"

I don't ask for money for my analysis. But I do have one request: If you make a profit from my strategy, please donate 10% of the net profit to those in need (starving people or people in war zones). Think of it as my payment.

⚠️ To the content creators & larger accounts

Unfortunately, I have often had my analyses copied and passed off as my own. Please be fair: If you share my graphics or thoughts, mention me or at least include the 10% donation call in your post. Honor among traders!

Use this information from me as a guide to learn your own lessons and make good profits Inshallah.

The analysis: The rules of the game are changing

To clear up any ambiguities and answer a few questions I have been asked: Even if the drawing in the chart looks visually short - it may take another 3 to 6 months for all this to materialize. I currently assume that we will know more about scenario B in this time frame.

My analyses are based on cycle theory and the combination of several strategies.

The two scenarios at a glance:

📊 Scenario A (The classic altcoin season): Bitcoin takes a break, but the rest of the crypto market explodes. In short, this means that everything except Bitcoin rises extremely sharply.

📈 Scenario B (BTC leads): Almost the entire crypto market rises, but Bitcoin rises the most. The rest follows suit, but not as explosively as in scenario A.

The crossroads: institutional vs. cycles

This is currently the most accurate information you can give, unless you are an insider at large institutions who know more. We are at a crucial crossroads:

IsBitcoin following its cycles like it used to, or is the cycle changing?

Scenario A: The cycle remains the same 60% probability

Scenario B: The cycle changes due to

massive institutional interest, ETFs, awareness, banks and countries 40% probability

In the past, when the chart was more predictable, it was easier to assess. At the moment, we really have to look: Are the rules of the game staying the same, or are they changing due to the numerous new big players?

The market has become even more uncertain, but it is precisely this risk that increases the opportunity for greater profits. This is absolutely not for the faint-hearted. Anyone who is already trembling with a stake of €100 has lost nothing here.

The chance of big winnings is there, but the risk must be taken into account!

Don't let your fears win.

LG Ayman

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