My personal problem with the stock market is thinking about the future. Inevitably, the following thoughts have always come up: "at some point" "when my portfolio is big enough, then..." "in a few years". But the future doesn't even exist. What about in 20 years? What about in 10? How realistic are projections of life in the future? Will I still be fit enough to pursue my passion in 20 years' time?

The most critical thing I ever read on this platform was a question from a user asking whether he should spend money on a vacation, as it could also be invested in the future.

Personally, I can only take the middle way and always try to live in the here and now and experience moments consciously. The only thing we have is the here and now. In the event of a long and healthy life, the deposit would then be the safeguard for the future.

We are currently doing 600 km across the Alps. From Innsbruck via the Brenner Pass, Brixen, Bolzano, Trento to Lake Garda and back. All by bike plus luggage. As we are in the finance bubble here, are there certainly one or two bikers on getquin? If so, what are your plans?

Let's take a hypothetical look...

Opinions !?

My thanks for inspiration and ideas go above all to :

@Simpson

@Tenbagger2024

@Hotte1909

Also to Traderfox, the old-school reading of the Stuttgarter Aktienbrief and boerse.de

After years of ups and downs, I have my first million in my pocket. I used to think this moment would feel completely different. Bigger. More emotional. Somehow life-changing.

But when it builds up slowly over years, the moment comes more quietly than expected. In the end, it's just a number on a screen. The real rollercoaster rides were the doubts, the setbacks, the mistakes and the patience in between.

And yet I know that emotions will continue to run wild in the coming years. Because uncertainty doesn't simply disappear as your wealth grows - it just takes on different dimensions.

Hi everyone,

I first set out on my investment journey because I dreamed of a life where I could afford everything I wanted, without having to compromise. 🏜️

Early on in this journey, I stumbled upon the FIRE movement, and for a long time, my motivation was to build enough wealth that I wouldn’t have to work anymore. 😎

As my wealth grew, my financial goals kept shifting a bit higher. At some point, I started thinking I wanted to be a millionaire. Then I started thinking I wanted to be a multimillionaire. 🤑

Well, somehow there’s no reasonable limit—or at least, I’ve been subconsciously pondering for quite a while where that limit actually lies for me personally.

In the last few days, there have been a few posts, including one by @Dirty30 , @1Chrischi1 , @FinanzPapa ,@Hahajjk and, in particular, from the lovely @DonkeyInvestor , that have dealt with the withdrawal phase, building up a lifestyle to live off of it, and, in particular, concrete goals. 🎯

Over the past few years, the idea has matured within me that no longer having to work isn’t a meaningful goal. Sure, I can easily imagine taking lots of vacations and traveling. But still, I’m increasingly coming to realize that regular work is fundamentally good for us humans and gives us stability. ⚖️

That’s why my goal of no longer having to work as soon as possible has vanished into thin air. 🎈💥

At the same time, over the past three years, I’ve experienced illness and had to cope with unexpected deaths among my close and extended circle, which have shifted my desire to save everything for later even further toward experiencing as much as possible in the here and now. 🏥⚱️

Not that I haven’t been doing that. But I’d like to spend less mental energy worrying about the future going forward (does that sentence even make sense?!? :D).

So what does the perfect compromise look like for me? Triggered by our @DonkeyInvestor , I’ve defined and set a clearer, more tangible goal for myself in recent years. I plan to start allocating parts of my assets to my lifestyle much sooner and put my savings plans on hold. 🚢

This also has to do with the fact that, at 34, I’m already much further along than I could ever have dreamed. Now I’d like to share my thoughts on this with you to get feedback on the idea and its theoretical implementation.

Over the last few days, I’ve worked with Claude to turn the rough idea into a more comprehensive simulation, which has now led me to a detailed plan. The plan isn’t set in stone, but I think it will serve as an excellent guideline for me. I’ve experimented with various parameters and their adjustments in every possible direction to develop a plan that promises me the earliest possible initial withdrawals, ensures I don’t go broke, allows my assets to continue growing as much as possible, keeps the withdrawal amount growing as much as possible, provides me with full financial security starting at age 60, and allows me to squeeze the maximum possible lifetime withdrawals from my savings (because that’s why I started in the first place...). 🧭

The plan:

Once my net worth reaches 1.25 million euros, I will stop my savings plans, which will immediately open up entirely new financial possibilities for me, since my wife and I have maintained savings rates over the past 10 years that have consistently ranged between 30% and 70%. In addition, I will withdraw 1% of my assets and add it to my spending budget. Since my capital is not fully invested in the stock market, I calculated using an average return of 5.5% per year and ran the simulation with a variance of 15.5%.

Since the withdrawal is supposed to increase annually, I looked for the best growth rate, which turned out to be an increase of 0.10625% per year. The maximum withdrawal should be 6% per year.

To avoid severely damaging the portfolio during negative market phases, a 10% guard rail has proven to yield very good results. What does that mean? If my portfolio ever falls more than 10% below its all-time high (ATH), I will forgo the withdrawal for that year. Instead, the withdrawal will be made up as soon as I’m back above 90% of my ATH. If multiple consecutive years do not allow for a withdrawal, a maximum of 50% of the portfolio will be withdrawn when making up the difference!

You can find the graphical representation of the Monte Carlo simulation here:

In my simulation, I used my dream scenario, in which I have a total net worth of over 1.25 million by age 37. With conservative planning and a 5.5% return, this could generate an incredible 4.36 million in spending power 🚀

With a little luck, the whole thing could, of course, skyrocket… 💣

What do you think of this in general? What would you do differently? Have your goals shifted over time, or even changed completely? Why have your goals changed?

I’d be happy if anyone who’s read this far would leave a comment :)