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Discussion about ADYEN
Posts
61Quarterly figures 27.10-31.10.25
Insider buying and a good recovery approx. +24% since the beginning of August
$ZAL (-0.34%) Another one of my trades, but here I got in too early😥, thought around €26 would be a good time and built up my position in June - well, it wasn't the best time, but at least with the recovery since the beginning of August my position is now green again 😁
Driven by large share purchases (just under €10m) by the main shareholder, there seems to be more confidence in Zalando again. The next hurdle would be the VWAP around €30, then the path to €33.7 and €37.6 would be clear again
link https://de.tradingview.com/news/dpa_afx:54b5a90b8bbff:0/
What else is there - my $STZ (-0.93%) was and is a fail - currently bobbing at -23% around 🥶
$UBER (+2.42%) just in the plus and $ADYEN (-0.93%) just in the red - but I'm already looking forward to the big vola for the figures🙄 Swing trades always need something Geduld🤷♂️
Aug 15 / Alaska Summit, Warren Buffett and FinTech
Trump Meets Putin in Alaska – A Meaningless PR Stunt?
Finally, after weeks of speculation, President Trump has arrived in Alaska to supposedly discuss how to end the war in Ukraine. This is the first face-to-face meeting in several years for the two presidents.
Trump warned of “very severe consequences” if a ceasefire can’t be reached – whatever that’s supposed to mean. Hopefully, it has nothing to do with the ballistic submarines stationed near Russia after Trump and a Russian official engaged in a verbal sparring match on social media. Let’s see where this goes.
UnitedHealth – The Stock Has Found Its Savior
Berkshire Hathaway sold shares in Apple and added to a new, very attractively valued position: UnitedHealth Group. Warren Buffett is known to buy when others are fearful, and speculation surrounded his latest pick until it was finally announced yesterday.
I can gladly say that I’m apparently not the only one who sees great potential in the unloved giant. The company has faced major headwinds – including the vicious and brutal killing of its CEO, higher medical costs, and controversies over its business practices. However, let’s not forget: UnitedHealth is the 9th-largest employer in the U.S. and the largest health insurer worldwide. 1 in 6 Americans is covered by UnitedHealth.
Warren Buffett finally gave the stock the spark it so badly deserved. UnitedHealth is a great company that – and quote me on this – will climb back to all-time highs. The insurer has a massive moat, strong fundamentals, and generates cash like King Midas. This is one of the positions in my portfolio I’m least worried about. I’ll let it sit there and take profits in two years.
Dlocal vs. Adyen – I Suppose I Chose Correctly
Investor’s reaction to the earnings of these two fintech companies couldn’t have been more different. One stock fell 20% after the report, while the other jumped more than 40%. Dlocal and Adyen both operate as international payment processors – Dlocal primarily in South America and other emerging markets, and Adyen across global markets.
Dlocal raised its guidance, beat expectations, and impressed with excellent execution, while Adyen struck a cautious tone and predicted a soft outlook. I find both companies highly interesting, but I decided to invest in Dlocal a few weeks ago due to its superior expansion potential, more attractive valuation, and strong leadership.
I feel proven right after the recent reports, though I wouldn’t be opposed to opening a position in Adyen if the stock drops further.
$UNH (+0.78%)
$BRK.A (-0.83%)
$BRK.B (-0.96%)
$AAPL (+2.1%)
$DLO
$ADYEN (-0.93%)
$ADYEN (-0.93%)
$BRNT (-0.27%)
$CRUD (+0.04%)
Additionally, after last week’s dip, Adyen has already rebounded by approximately 20% 😁
40k free cash. Where to put it?
I would be interested in your opinion: I still have 40k cash on hand.
I wanted to use the money for the Black Swan event but the dip doesn't come, the market runs away and FOMO kicks in. À la April lows at the tariff announcement of USA against the whole world.
My current PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION can be viewed in my profile, it is public.
Actually
I'm in a pretty solid position (my opinion) and would be happy to give you my opinion.
Would you stick to the plan or DCA into interesting stocks?
On my watchlist: $UNH (+0.78%) ; $TTD (+3.15%) ; $ADYEN (-0.93%) ; $TEAM (+0.85%) ; $UPST (+0.29%) & $MNDY (+0.69%)
What do you have on your watchlist and what would you advise me to do? Stick to the plan and wait for the big dip or go in in tranches?
Adyen is sent on a downward spiral after earnings!!!
$ADYEN (-0.93%) is for large movements after the #quartalszahlen at the #börse known.
It happened again today. A price reaction of -20% after the #earnings and no end in sight.
Let me just remind you that the share had an initial price reaction of -40% after the figures in summer 2023. Over the next few weeks and months, the #aktie fell by a further -30% after this plunge.
Buy the dip did not prove successful here at the time and the #dip buyers had to wait 3 months for the breakeven point. Going blindly into a falling knife is not always the "nobrainer" strategy. So watch out!
The figures:
- Sales revenue1.09 billion € (+20 % compared to the previous year, +21 % adjusted for exchange rate effects), slightly below the expected € 1.11 billion.
- EBITDA543.7 million (+28 % compared to the previous year) with a margin of 50 %, slightly above expectations (49.6 %).
- Transaction volume processed649 billion € (+5 % compared to the previous year). Excluding one major client with a very high volume, growth was a solid +23 %but remainedbelow the market expectation of € 662.19 billion.
- Forecast reduction: Adyen lowered its outlook for sales growth sales growth outlook for the second half of 2025 to +20-21 % (adjusted for exchange rate effects), previously +24 %
had been forecast had been forecast.
The reasons given were US tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations. This forecast reduction was not well received by the market.
PS: An entry around €1,000 would be particularly interesting, not only as a psychologically important level, but also as a potential trigger for a stop hunt.
WHAT DO YOU THINK, WILL YOU GET IN OR STAY ON THE SIDELINES?
ADYEN H1 2025 Earnings Report
Summary by Gemini:
Financial Performance (H1 2025 vs. H1 2024):
- Net Revenue: Increased by 20% to €1.09 billion (21% on a constant currency basis)- estimates were 1.11B (MISS)
- Net Income: Grew by 17% to €480.96 million.
- Processed Volume: Increased by 5% to €649 billion. Excluding a single large-volume customer, processed volume was up 23%. - Estimates were €662.19B (MISS)
- EBITDA: Rose 28% to €543.7 million.
- EBITDA Margin: Improved to 50%, up from 46% in the prior year.
- Earnings per share (EPS): Grew to €15.22 from €13.15.
Key Business Drivers:
- The company's growth was primarily driven by increasing its share of business with existing customers.
- The Digital processed volume decreased by 9%, but increased 18% when excluding a single large-volume customer. The growth was tempered by changes to U.S. tariffs, which particularly affected large online retail merchants headquartered in the APAC region.
- Unified Commerce volume increased by 35%.
- Platforms processed volume increased by 20% (or 59% excluding eBay).
Outlook for 2025 and 2026:
- Adyen now expects its full-year 2025 net revenue growth to be broadly in line with the first half's performance, as the previously anticipated acceleration is now considered unlikely due to lower-than-expected market volume growth.
- The company expects EBITDA margin to expand in 2025, but at a more moderate rate than in 2024.
- For fiscal year 2026, Adyen aims for annual net revenue growth between the low-twenties and high-twenties percent and an EBITDA margin above 50%
First market reaction was almost -20%, -16.5% as of this writing.
My interpretation:
- Missing estimates for a company as as highly priced as ADYEN (~50P/E) is deadline in the current market. The selloff is thus unsurprising.
- Margins were already good and improved further. The large-volume customer (not sure which one this is, ADYEN never specified it) leaving was already known and not neccesarily a bad thing as they got way lower margins.
- I'm still optimistic about ADYENs moat and future perspective and see the current price as a good moment to add or start a position. I do expect price targets to decrease as their growth appears to decrease.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!
At last!
I must confess that I used to think Wirecard was great ... I have now taken the opportunity of the share price fall and bought it at what I consider to be a "good price".
Sometimes you have to part with your favorites.
Today, with a heavy heart, I closed my position in Fiserv with a loss of around 15%. The earnings were good in principle, the reaction was a fall of approx. 25% and since then the share has only gone one way📉.
My reasons are simply that Clover's growth has disappointed and is mainly due to migration. In addition, more and more customers are turning away due to poor management. Insiders are also steadily shedding shares. The forward P/E ratio looks very favorable at 12, especially if you look at the consistency in the P to P range.
However, I fear that this could become a case like Paypal (which, funnily enough, I also have in my portfolio). Favorable P to P ratio and high share buybacks. Nevertheless, you can see the same pattern with PayPal - the share has hardly moved at all and has been doing so for years.
Above all, I see the European competitor $ADYEN (-0.93%) a competitor that is doing much better and that I see much more often in everyday life.
In short, I simply see a much better way to handle my money in the long term.
What do you think about Fiserv and selling at a high loss?
Reporting season
First of all, this is more for those in the community who trade in the short term than for serious investors
I would be interested to know whether you already have stocks in mind that you would like to go long or short in the run-up to the figures.
One of my favorites would be $UNH (+0.78%) if they are below 300$ until the numbers.
$ADYEN (-0.93%) is always known for good volatility, so I'm already invested there, just like in $ASML (+1.87%) .
Watch Adyen - is on the watchlist for a trade 😁
⚠ Only for trading fans - otherwise keep scrolling 😅
$ADYEN (-0.93%) is fighting for the VWAP (month), is on the watchlist for a trade. If it goes above the VWAP (purple line) it becomes interesting for a trade. Now only the right candle has to come -> long wick below, small body would show pressure from the buy side.
@Multibagger You are also back - both directions would be an option for you. If the resistance at the VWAP is still too great, a short with leverage would also be something, wouldn't it?
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Edit Update July 7 12:00:
I was able to open a position before the breakout above the VWAP at 9:53 (1528,80€). This is now hedged above the VWAP with an SL (1535€). If it goes back down again, I will be out with a small plus. But I will keep an eye on further entries around the VWAP 😉
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Edit Update July 7 13:50
The price has reached the monthly high, the last candles indicate selling pressure, so I tightened the stop, which was triggered a few minutes later. The trade is therefore closed again.
$ADYEN (-0.93%) remains on the watchlist - either the highs of the month develop into a support, or the VWAP area is approached again, both areas would then be interesting for a new trade😁
I hope this end-to-end view of a trade, from index identification in the morning - to entry - to hedging - to exit, will help you to understand my trading strategies.
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Edit Update July 7 after close of trading on Adyen's home exchange - Conclusion:
Well, after my exit (SL at 1547,20€) shortly before 14:00 it got really turbulent again! The selling pressure shown in the chart from earlier "unloaded" shortly afterwards. The price fell back to €1535 within minutes, but rose again very dynamically after a short breather. According to the VWAP of the session, this would have been another great entry point, but I missed it - it happens... 😭
In hindsight, you always know better, but I stay true to my system and risk management 😉
I'll keep watching Adyen, let's see how the opening goes tomorrow. At the moment, the price is too far away from the VWAP of the session for me to enter again. The focus area is the zone around 1561-1565. Maybe tomorrow will be another good entry point?
There is still plenty of room up to €1750, it's better to miss a few € on the way up than to take the risk and fall back into the loss zone 🤷♂️ That's trading.
PS: the capital went back into a day trade in the late afternoon. $HSAI (+5.61%) flowed into a day trade. The chart around the VWAP was right again.
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