Now is the best opportunity to become a co-owner of the best bank in Switzerland! $UBSG (+0.12%)

Take it!!! (While stocks last)

HSBC HOLDINGS $HSBA (-2.61%) and UBS $UBSG (+0.12%) are expanding their wealth management businesses in India, driven by an IPO boom that has created a new group of millionaires in the country, reports the Financial Times.

UBS is reportedly looking at acquiring Indian wealth management firm 360 ONE, while HSBC announced in January that it plans to double the number of its branches in India.

In recent years, Dubai has established itself as a safe haven for money from conflict regions. This development is driven by two factors in particular:

• Russian capital flightSince the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022, around 200k Russian citizens have settled in Dubai. These include oligarchs, wealthy businessmen and companies seeking to escape Western sanctions. This has led to a sharp increase in demand for luxury real estate, banking services & company registration.

• Sanctions evasion and trade boomThe United Arab Emirates (UAE) has refused to enforce Western sanctions against Russia*. This has allowed Dubai to establish itself as a major hub for Russian financial transactions through dirham-ruble transactions, re-export of oil and gold trading. For example, Russian oil shipments to the UAE's Fujairah terminal increased to 141,000 barrels per day (end of 2022), while Russian gold imports to the UAE rose from 1.3 tons (2021) to 96.4 tons (2022), i.e. 74 times more. 74-fold.

*Western sanctions would include: The exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT, freezing of 300 billion euros in Central Bank reserves, import ban on Russian coal, investment restrictions in the energy sector, export bans on high tech, import bans on steel and luxury goods, asset freezes and travel bans on "elites", oligarchs and companies close to the government, EU port and airspace closures and EU broadcasting bans on Russian state media.*

The Dubai Financial Market Index reached a ten-year high in December 2024. The main drivers of this development were real estate & banking stocks, such as Emaar Properties. This rise can be directly attributed to capital flows driven by geopolitical crises, for example.

Why peace could weaken Dubai

Dubai's dependence on Crisis Capital means that geopolitical easing brings economic risks. These can be explained by the following points:

• Should there be a peace agreement in the Ukraine war, many Russian investors could repatriate their capital or reinvest in Western markets. This would have a significant impact on Dubai's real estate and financial sector.

• If Western sanctions against Russia are eased, Dubai will lose its strategic importance as a financial and trading hub for Russian companies. Ruble-dirham settlements and trade in sanctioned goods such as semiconductors would be particularly affected.

• The value of real estate in Dubai has almost doubled since 2021. Analysts warn that a geopolitical normalization could lead to a sharp decline in demand from Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East, which would result in a real estate correction.

• While the DFMGI rose by 24.5 % in 2024, analysts expect weaker development in 2025. The reasons for this are uncertain $IOIL00 (-0.67%) prices, potential capital outflows and lower demand from crisis regions.

Dubai's role in geopolitical competition

In addition to economic implications, Dubai's position as a crisis profiteer also has diplomatic consequences.

The UAE has positioned itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine since 2022. Among other things, it has organized 9 prisoner exchanges and strengthened diplomatic relations. The most recent exchange took place on August 24, 2024, in which 115 prisoners were released. President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held talks with Vladimir Putin on bilateral relations and global developments. At the same time, he also received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky. Peace would reduce this influence.

While Dubai benefits from ongoing crises, Saudi Arabia is increasingly focusing on peace initiatives and long-term investment programs. With the Vision 2030 Saudi Arabia is pursuing an ambitious reform program to reduce its dependence on oil and is planning significant investments in the mining sector and in foreign mining projects with the aim of strengthening its position in mineral supply chains. An easing of tensions would therefore further strengthen Saudi Arabia's position as a leading power in the region.

If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, European banks could expect cash in flows that are currently flowing to Dubai. According to $UBSG (+0.12%) European banks are heading for record years, with dividend payouts and share buybacks of over €120 billion over the next two years and the EY European Bank Lending Forecast forecasts significant growth in lending volumes in the Eurozone -3.1% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/QjmnXzs5aPw?si=UBa2XKVcVG4h_9k1

Sunday:

Stock markets are likely to open lower on Monday. The reason is the tariff dispute between the USA and the rest of the world. Mexico and Canada have been hit with 25% tariffs, China with 10% and the EU is to follow suit. Both Mexico and Canada are not putting up with it and are hitting back. Justin Trudeau announces the same tariffs on US products and calls for a boycott of US products.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/reaktion-auf-trump-kanada-schlaegt-im-zollstreit-zurueck-dollar-fuer-dollar/100105058.html

Monday:

Inflation in the eurozone is on the rise again. Inflation rates rose to 2.5% in January. The expectation was 2.4%, but in combination with Trump's tariffs, this news is unlikely to go down well. This is because higher inflation and tariffs could make further interest rate cuts less likely.

https://www.morningstar.de/de/news/260151/inflation-in-der-eurozone-steigt-wieder-an---eu-bereitet-sich-auf-us-zouml%3Blle-vor.aspx

Tuesday:

UBS $UBSG (+0.12%) UBS benefits from higher interest rates and generates significantly higher profit. Profit amounted to 5.1 billion euros in 2024. The integration of Credit Suisse is progressing well. The dividend is set to increase.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/banken-ubs-hebt-nach-gewinnsprung-dividende-deutlich-an/100105216.html

Things are going well at $KGX (-1.9%) Kion. Despite an improved margin, the Group intends to further optimize costs. The operating margin improved to 8% in 2024. Cash flow and operating margin surprised positively.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/effizienzoffensive-kion-aktie-gewinnt-marge-2024-verbessert-sich-kion-setzt-dennoch-sparmassnahmen-um-14205140

Wednesday:

Trump once again enters negotiations with maximum demands. He talks about the USA taking over the Gaza Strip. We are curious to see what the final outcome will be.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/israel-trump-will-gaza-besetzen-und-palaestinenser-umsiedeln/100105686.html

$GOOGL (+0.54%) Alphabet falls slightly short of revenue expectations. Instead of USD 96.56 billion, it was only USD 96.47 billion. Overall, revenues increased by 12% in the last quarter. At 32%, the cloud division grew two percentage points less than expected.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/quartalszahlen-vorgelegt-alphabet-aktie-rutscht-ab-google-mutter-alphabet-mit-gewinnsprung-cloudgeschaeft-enttaeuscht-14201453

German car manufacturers are not the only ones struggling with sales problems. Also $TSLA (-0.61%) Tesla and now $7203 (+1.21%) Toyota are also presenting poorer figures. Profits fell by 28% to 7.66 billion euros in the third quarter. In addition, Toyota is only now starting to develop electric cars.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/toyota-gewinn-des-groessten-autoherstellers-bricht-um-mehr-als-ein-viertel-ein/100105585.html

Good news: producer prices in the eurozone have risen less sharply than expected at 0.4%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-erzeugerpreise-im-euroraum-gestiegen/100105784.html

Thursday:

The BoE cut the key interest rate to 4.5%. However, two members of the relevant committees called for an even greater rate cut. At the same time, the growth forecast in the UK 🇬🇧 was adjusted downwards.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/bank-of-england-leitzins-in-grossbritannien-sinkt-erneut-notenbank-steckt-im-stagflationsdilemma/100104646.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Wednesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)

Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)

Friday: 14:30 Retail sales (USA)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#inflation
#usa
#einzelhandel

$UBSG (+0.12%)

UBS Group has published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, showing a solid performance with stable revenues and progress in the integration of Credit Suisse.

Key figures:

• Total revenuesUSD 11.6 billion (+7% compared to Q4 2023)
• Operating profit before taxesUSD 1.05 billion (Q4 2023: USD -751 million)
• Net result for shareholdersUSD 770 million (Q4 2023: USD -279 million)
• Return on equity (RoE): 3,6% (Q4 2023: -1,3%)
• Assets under management6.1 trillion USD (+6% compared to Q4 2023)

Progress in the integration of Credit Suisse

UBS is on track to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by the end of 2026 Risk-weighted assets (RWA) in Non-Core and Legacy have already been reduced by 52%, faster than originally planned

Cost management and increased efficiency

• Operating costs fell by 10% year-on-year to USD 10.4 billion.
• Cost savings of USD 7.5 billion have been realized to date, which corresponds to 58% of the target of USD 13 billion by 2026.

Outlook and capital returns

• DividendA distribution of USD 0.90 per share is planned (previous year: USD 0.70).
• Share buybacksUBS plans USD 1 bn buybacks in the first half of 2025, with a possible additional USD 2 bn in the second half of the year.

UBS delivered solid results in fourth quarter 2024 despite a challenging market environment. The integration of Credit Suisse is progressing faster than expected and the firm remains on track for growth with a clear focus on cost efficiency and shareholder returns.

Treasury position: 674 shares, at ~ CHF 14.50

Happy Investing

GG

Sergio ErmottiCEO of the $UBSG (+0.12%)expressed concerns at the #wef2025 concerns that an expected decline in interest rates due to the trade policies of the second term of Donald Trump could be delayed. In his view, inflation remains stubbornly higher than many experts suspect, due in part to the impact of trade tariffs.

Tariffs are expected to do little to reduce inflation. Instead, they could continue to drive up prices, reducing the likelihood of a faster rate cut.

January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:

"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"

The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.

As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.

Main topics:

• Rethinking growth: How can we tap into new sources of economic growth?

• How can companies respond to tech and geopolitical upheaval?

• What measures promote education, health & human capital?

• How can innovative partnerships & techs drive climate protection?

• How can cooperation be strengthened to overcome social divisions?

Participants from politics & business.

Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.

The key figures from politics are:

• 🇺🇸 Donald J. Trump(soon to be) President of the USA (via video link)
• 🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
• 🇨🇳 Ding XuexiangVice Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China
• 🇦🇷 Javier MileiPresident of Argentina
• 🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany
• 🇿🇦 Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
• 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain
• 🇨🇭 Karin Keller-Sutter, President of the Swiss Confederation 2025
• 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)

Technology sector

• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (+0.31%) (Microsoft) - Satya Nadella, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $AMZN (-0.09%) (Amazon) - Andy Jassy, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $IBM (-1.94%) (IBM) - Arvind Krishna, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (+0.31%) (Microsoft) - Bill Gates, co-founder and head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• 🌎 Cohere - Aidan Gomez, CEO
• 🌎 $META (-0.55%) (Meta) - Yann LeCun, AI scientist
• 🌎 OpenAI - Sam Altman, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $TSLA (-0.61%) (Tesla) - Elon Musk, CEO

Financial sector

• 🇪🇺 ECB - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
• 🇫🇷 ECB - Francois Villeroy de Galhau, President of the French Central Bank
• 🇩🇪 German Bundesbank- Joachim Nagel, President
• 🇺🇸 $BLK (BlackRock) - Martin Lück, Chief Investment Strategist
• 🇳🇱 $ING (-3.71%) (ING) - Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany

Banking sector

• 🇺🇸 $JPM (-0.61%) (JPMorgan Chase) - Jamie Dimon, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+0.12%) (UBS) - Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+0.12%) (UBS) - Colm Kelleher, President
• 🇩🇪 $DBK (+0.16%) (Deutsche Bank) - Christian Sewing, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $GS (+0.16%) (Goldman Sachs) - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO
• 🇺🇸 $BAC (+0.3%) (Bank of America) - Brian Moynihan, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $C (-0.01%) (Citigroup) - Jane Fraser, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-2.61%) (HSBC) - Mark Tucker, Group Chairman
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-2.61%) (HSBC) - Michael Roberts, CEO of HSBC Bank
• 🇺🇸 $MS (-0.21%) (Morgan Stanley) - Ted Pick, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $BARC (-1.97%) (Barclays) - C.S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO
• 🇫🇷 $GLE (-0.84%) (Société Générale) - Slawomir Krupa, CEO
• 🇮🇹 $UCG (-0.74%) (UniCredit) - Andrea Orcel, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $BG (+0.36%) (BAWAG Group) - Anja E. M. W. Schreiber, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $EBS (-0.91%) (Erste Group) - Andreas Treichl, CEO

Industry sector

• 🇩🇪 $BAYN (+1.44%) (Bayer) - Bill Anderson, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $NESNE (Nestlé) - Mark Schneider, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $ULVR (+0.18%) (Unilever) - Hein Schumacher, CEO
• 🇨🇳 SHEIN - Donald Tang, Vice Chairman
• 🇮🇳 ADANIENT (Adani Enterprises) - Gautam Adani, Chairman

... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- Raymond James Upgrades Block Inc (SQ) to Outperform

Raymond James analyst John Davis upgraded Block Inc (NYSE: SQ) from Market Perform to Outperform with a price target of $115.00. $SQ (-0.22%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB upgrades KNORR-BREMSE from Sell to Hold and raises price target from EUR 63.60 to EUR 65. $KBX (+0.42%)

- EXANE BNP upgrades UBS from Neutral to Outperform and raises price target from CHF 27 to CHF 35. $UBSG (+0.12%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 91.10 to EUR 95.30. Buy. $TLX (-0.2%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for SNP from EUR 56 to EUR 61. Hold. $SHF (+0.75%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- UBS lowers the price target for ADOBE SYSTEMS from USD 525 to USD 475. Neutral. $ADBE (+0.47%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 31.80 to EUR 26.34. Hold. $1SXP (+0%)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/oV3omttRVN0?si=4olXTaUPp-fMjSYS

Monday:

The subsidy bankruptcy of our Economics Minister continues. At $INTC (+2.3%) Intel and $WOLF (+10.75%) Wolfspeed, the plants were not even built and therefore no subsidies have been paid. Things could now get even worse at Northvolt, where the subsidies have already been paid out. However, Northvolt has now filed for bankruptcy. In the worst case scenario, the state has given away 620 million euros of taxpayers' money.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/batteriefabrik-northvolt-insolvenz-koennte-steuerzahler-620-millionen-euro-kosten/100092346.html

On Monday, the mood in US industry brightened surprisingly strongly. Nevertheless, the purchasing managers' index signals a slowdown.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/US-Anleihen-Kursverluste-nach-robusten-Wirtschaftsdaten/36763380

Tuesday:

The DAX breaks through the 20,000 point mark for the first time in its history, reaching a new record high.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-20000-punkte-ein-rekord-in-unsicheren-zeiten/100079470.html

South Korea's president declares martial law. This is in response to the threat posed by North Korea. The rest of the world sees this as a coup d'état and protests break out.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DDHpNlBsl0c/?igsh=MW5ycDh2NHNkbno1dg==

Thursday:

$HFG (+0.94%) Hellofresh can gain significantly after several upgrades by analysts. Jeffries and JPMorgan have raised the price target by 100% in some cases.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/hellofresh-rally-geht-weiter-kursziel-verdoppelt-20371228.html

Friday:

The largest free trade zone in the world could be created, the so-called Mercosur agreement between the EU and South America. France still wants to scupper the deal, but Javier Milei wants the free trade zone. The Mercosur agreement was adopted on Friday evening.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/handelsabkommen-mega-handelsdeal-zwischen-eu-und-mercosur-auf-zielgeraden/100090629.html

Consumer sentiment in the US has continued to improve. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose. This means that consumer sentiment has improved for the fifth month in a row.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/12/06/michigan-consumer-sentiment-edges-higher

Saturday:

Billionaires are relocating more often since Covid. At least according to a new study by $UBSG (+0.12%) UBS. The main influencing factors are the quality of life in the respective countries, as well as the legal framework for the wealthy. The main target countries are therefore also countries with particularly low taxes: The USA 🇺🇸, Switzerland 🇨🇭, the UAE 🇦🇪 and Singapore 🇸🇬.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DDSYluRumiW/?igsh=YjJkb3gybWhxc3I4

Key dates for the coming week:

Tuesday: 08:00 Inflation data (DE)

Wednesday: 15:45 Interest rate decision BoC (Canada)

Thursday: 14:30 Interest rate decision (ECB)

What other important dates can you think of?

#inflation
#kanada
#boc
#ezb
#zinsen